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Nell Henderson

@nellhenderson.bsky.social

280 followers 190 following 240 posts

Econ nerd, Fed obsessive, Dodgers fan, recovering journalist (Ex-Econ Editor WaPo, WSJ), McKinsey alum, now Peterson Institute for International Economics VP Publishing, among other things. Opinions my own etc.

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Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 18h

Early this year, Trump threatened Canada with tariffs. In response, Canadians pulled California wines off store shelves, along with other American-made alcohol. U.S. wine exports to Canada dropped 96% in the second quarter—from nearly $111 million last year to under $4 million this year wsj.com

The Wall Street Journal - Breaking News, Business, Financial & Economic News, World News and Video

Breaking news and analysis from the U.S. and around the world at WSJ.com. Politics, Economics, Markets, Life & Arts, and in-depth reporting.

Reposted by Nell Henderson

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 18h

Ahead of a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Beijing dropped a bombshell: China was further restricting access to rare earths.

Four Things to Know About Beijing’s Rare-Earths Bombshell

Ahead of a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Beijing dropped a bombshell: China was further restricting access to the indispensable tech materials.

Reposted by Nell Henderson

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 2d

Rather than worrying about the China Shock 2.0 in developed economies, we should be much more worried about the China Shock 1.0 in low- & middle-income countries, Arvind Subramanian says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

The New China Shock is on Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs)
High and rising imports of low-skilled products from China
Magnitude and pace of China shock much greater than for rich countries

China Shock 2.0 Exaggerated
Implication: now impact for rich countries is mostly from Chinese high skilled esports
Magnitude and pace of China Shock 2.0 significantly smaller than China Shock 1.0
China SHock 2.0 no longer macro-economic but sectoral/technological/security

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 1d

Big Investors Await Windfall From Trump’s Argentina Bailout :The United States finalized a $20 billion lifeline for Argentina that will benefit Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s allies. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...

Big Investors Await Windfall From Trump’s Argentina Bailout

www.nytimes.com

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 1d

Must see TV: PIIE’s Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged

Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 2d

Where is the economy headed? See the latest projections from PIIE's Karen Dynan: Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks

The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...

Reposted by Nell Henderson

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 3d

🍂Fall meetings start now!🍂
Our first event is an expert panel of Martin Chorzempa, Tianlei Huang, Mary Lovely, & Yeling Tan diving deep into China's economic landscape, including the housing market & the country's economic security model.
Watch here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...

China's economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities

The Peterson Institute holds an in-depth discussion examining China’s economic landscape, including the current housing slump and its broader implications, as well as the country’s economic security g...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 3d

The FT's Martin Wolff cites PIIE's Robert Lawrence in saying Trump's tariffs won't deliver many jobs. "Nostalgia is not a strategy." www.ft.com/content/a742...

Trump’s tariffs won’t deliver many jobs

Nostalgia is not a strategy: the past cannot return

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 4d

America's Argentina rescue won’t save the peso for long , writes PIIE’s Maurice Obstfeld www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

America's Argentina rescue won’t save the peso for long

The Argentine peso is in trouble again, but this time the US government is riding to the rescue. In late September, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced several supportive measures, including po...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 10d

The global trade war: An update from PIIE’s McKibbin and Noland www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

The global trade war: An update

Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tari...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 11d

Read or watch PIIE's Michael Clemens explain how the US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms

President Donald Trump on Friday ordered an unprecedented new restriction on lawful immigration to the US by high-skill workers. Starting Sunday, new applications for H-1B visas required payment of an...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 11d

Revisiting this May Hufbauer analysis, as Trump revisits his idea for Movie tariffs www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Another Trump first: Movie tariffs

Breaking fresh ground with his all-purpose tool, on May 4, 2025, President Donald Trump said he would impose 100 percent tariffs on movies made abroad, complaining that other countries steal Hollywood...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 14d

Medical Groups Warn Against new $100k Visa Fees for Foreign Doctors that could worsen physician shortages www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/h...

Medical Groups Warn Against Visa Fees for Foreign Doctors

www.nytimes.com

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 15d

Must See TV! PIIE's Michael Clemens on why new restrictions on high-skilled immigration (via the H-1B visa) will hurt American innovation and productivity www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...

Restricting high-skilled immigration is a blow to American innovation and productivity

Economist Michael Clemens (PIIE) explains how restricting H-1B visas for high-skilled immigration to the US will shrink access to the global talent pool that has contributed substantially to US innova...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 17d

The erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time, according to PIIE's McKibbin and Noland. www.piie.com/research/pii...

Erosion of Fed independence would slow US economic growth and boost inflation over time

President Donald Trump has publicly urged the US Federal Reserve for months to significantly reduce interest rates to drive stronger economic growth and reduce federal debt service costs. Frustrated w...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 17d

The latest must-read from PIIE's Clausing and Obstfeld: Tariffs as Fiscal Policy www.piie.com/publications...

Tariffs as Fiscal Policy

The year 2025 brought a remarkable shift in the role of tariffs in the US economy, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated the use of broad tariffs and ensured that Congress enacted large...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 19d

Argentina is in crisis. A US rescue may invite new problems, writes PIIE’s Monica de Bolle www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Argentina is in crisis. A US rescue may invite new problems.

Despite the economic "shock therapy" imposed by libertarian President Javier Milei, Argentina is once again in crisis. The stock market is plummeting, dollars are fleeing, and the government is interv...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 19d

New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms, writes PIIE’s Michael Clemens www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms

President Donald Trump on Friday ordered an unprecedented new restriction on lawful immigration to the US by high-skill workers. Starting Sunday, new applications for H-1B visas required payment of an...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 22d

‘No One Should Be Very Confident’: Four Economists (including PIIE’s Jason Furman) Dissect Trump and the Economy www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/o...

Opinion | ‘No One Should Be Very Confident’: Four Economists Dissect Trump and the Economy

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Nell Henderson

Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 25d

NEW: Data suggest US businesses have absorbed most of the tariff costs through July 2025, not foreign sellers.
There is very little support for Trump’s thesis that foreign sellers are absorbing tariffs by lowering their prices on US imports.
More:

Who is paying for Trump's tariffs? So far, it's US businesses.

President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024,...

Reposted by Nell Henderson

John Cassidy @johncassidysays.bsky.social · 25d

ICYMI: Great reporting from the Times, following Deep Throat's advice: Follow the money.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/u...

Anatomy of Two Giant Deals: The U.A.E. Got Chips. The Trump Team Got Crypto Riches.

www.nytimes.com

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 29d

Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries www.piie.com/research/pii...

Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries

The monthly jobs report shows how immigration policy is changing the US labor market. Stricter border enforcement starting mid-2024, followed by increased deportations and other changes to immigration...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · Sep 9

PIIE's Jed Kolko shows how slowing immigration has halted job growth in some US industries www.piie.com/research/pii...

Slowing immigration has halted job growth in some industries

The monthly jobs report shows how immigration policy is changing the US labor market. Stricter border enforcement starting mid-2024, followed by increased deportations and other changes to immigration...

Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · Sep 6

PIIE’s Jason Furman on why This Economy Might Be a ‘New Normal’ www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/o...

Opinion | This Economy Might Be a ‘New Normal’

www.nytimes.com