Michael Clemens
@mclem.org
Professor of economics at George Mason University, fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, IZA, CReAM/UCL, CEPR, CGD. Associate Editor JEP. USAID 2021–2024. Personal views exclusively.
Web: http://mclem.org
ORCID: 0000-0003-1354-0965
Web: http://mclem.org
ORCID: 0000-0003-1354-0965
Pinned
Michael Clemens
@mclem.org
· Feb 21
Migration does not have to be what it is now
Innovation can change what migration *is*—more orderly, skilled, integrated, & tangibly beneficial to everyone affected
In 2012 I proposed one way: Global Skill Partnerships
The World Bank just released a major GSP roadmap—> hdl.handle.net/10986/42780
Innovation can change what migration *is*—more orderly, skilled, integrated, & tangibly beneficial to everyone affected
In 2012 I proposed one way: Global Skill Partnerships
The World Bank just released a major GSP roadmap—> hdl.handle.net/10986/42780
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Still reeling from the Stanford report on Brexit. Reduced GDP by up to 8% and investment by as much as 18%. The UK Treasury would have £40 billion more each year if Britain had remained in the EU. Devastating self-immolation.
The Economic Impact of Brexit
Other
siepr.stanford.edu
November 24, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Still reeling from the Stanford report on Brexit. Reduced GDP by up to 8% and investment by as much as 18%. The UK Treasury would have £40 billion more each year if Britain had remained in the EU. Devastating self-immolation.
The ongoing, behind-the-scenes evisceration of our apolitical public service will ultimately harm all Conservative and Liberal Americans. Institutions that defend all of us from extremists on the Left and Right, once shattered, do not return soon and may not return ever.
“The Justice Department purge has now eclipsed 5,000 employees since January, including resignations, firings and retirements.”
www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-j...
www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-j...
"Quite frankly I was pissed off!" Growing online page chronicles Trump Justice Dept. resignation letters
Amid a wave of departures from the Justice Department, some of its former officials are curating a public online display of the farewell messages of ousted employees.
www.cbsnews.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:49 PM
The ongoing, behind-the-scenes evisceration of our apolitical public service will ultimately harm all Conservative and Liberal Americans. Institutions that defend all of us from extremists on the Left and Right, once shattered, do not return soon and may not return ever.
Will do, thanks very much Joël
November 24, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Will do, thanks very much Joël
Reposted by Michael Clemens
With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, we are happy to announce the CfPapers for the
4th edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration
on May 26-27, 2026 @uc3meconomics.bsky.social, Spain.
Submit until February 1, 2026 on economig2026.sciencesconf.org
With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, we are happy to announce the CfPapers for the
4th edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration
on May 26-27, 2026 @uc3meconomics.bsky.social, Spain.
Submit until February 1, 2026 on economig2026.sciencesconf.org
November 24, 2025 at 9:27 AM
With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, we are happy to announce the CfPapers for the
4th edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration
on May 26-27, 2026 @uc3meconomics.bsky.social, Spain.
Submit until February 1, 2026 on economig2026.sciencesconf.org
With @jeromevalette.bsky.social & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, we are happy to announce the CfPapers for the
4th edition of the Junior Workshop on the Economics of Migration
on May 26-27, 2026 @uc3meconomics.bsky.social, Spain.
Submit until February 1, 2026 on economig2026.sciencesconf.org
Reposted by Michael Clemens
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
New paper: Triply Robust Panel Estimators (TROP) by @susanathey.bsky.social @guidoimbens.bsky.social Zhaonan Qu @vivianodavide.bsky.social.
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
arxiv.org/pdf/2508.21536
November 23, 2025 at 10:39 PM
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
The sharp decline in US teenagers’ aspiration to get married and have kids…
…is happening almost entirely among girls, not boys.
At some point maybe men will start trying harder to understand that.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... | HT @conradhackett.bsky.social @pewresearch.org
…is happening almost entirely among girls, not boys.
At some point maybe men will start trying harder to understand that.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... | HT @conradhackett.bsky.social @pewresearch.org
November 24, 2025 at 12:12 AM
The sharp decline in US teenagers’ aspiration to get married and have kids…
…is happening almost entirely among girls, not boys.
At some point maybe men will start trying harder to understand that.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... | HT @conradhackett.bsky.social @pewresearch.org
…is happening almost entirely among girls, not boys.
At some point maybe men will start trying harder to understand that.
www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/... | HT @conradhackett.bsky.social @pewresearch.org
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Incredibly proud of this 🤩🥹! So much work and determination behind this publication. What a journey this was! Honored to have done it with you @vickybarone.bsky.social 🚀❤️
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
doi.org
November 23, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Incredibly proud of this 🤩🥹! So much work and determination behind this publication. What a journey this was! Honored to have done it with you @vickybarone.bsky.social 🚀❤️
Let the record show that both you and Mushfiq have mountains of knowledge I do not and will never have, and I'm jealous of both of you!
November 22, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Let the record show that both you and Mushfiq have mountains of knowledge I do not and will never have, and I'm jealous of both of you!
The US President demanded that this person be killed. Yesterday.
Reckless, filthy perversion of public office is not Conservative. It is not Liberal. It is poison to all Americans.
Reckless, filthy perversion of public office is not Conservative. It is not Liberal. It is poison to all Americans.
From a spokesperson for U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin:
November 22, 2025 at 2:13 AM
The US President demanded that this person be killed. Yesterday.
Reckless, filthy perversion of public office is not Conservative. It is not Liberal. It is poison to all Americans.
Reckless, filthy perversion of public office is not Conservative. It is not Liberal. It is poison to all Americans.
I'm so sick of this garbage. Nonstop poison spit into our veins.
Americans demand leadership and honor in public service. We demand people in positions of public trust who uphold our laws, with minimal wisdom & humanity.
Nothing partisan. Conservative & Liberal Americans reject authoritarian rule.
Americans demand leadership and honor in public service. We demand people in positions of public trust who uphold our laws, with minimal wisdom & humanity.
Nothing partisan. Conservative & Liberal Americans reject authoritarian rule.
November 21, 2025 at 6:02 PM
I'm so sick of this garbage. Nonstop poison spit into our veins.
Americans demand leadership and honor in public service. We demand people in positions of public trust who uphold our laws, with minimal wisdom & humanity.
Nothing partisan. Conservative & Liberal Americans reject authoritarian rule.
Americans demand leadership and honor in public service. We demand people in positions of public trust who uphold our laws, with minimal wisdom & humanity.
Nothing partisan. Conservative & Liberal Americans reject authoritarian rule.
Soldiers in the United States military have a right to refuse unlawful orders.
nlgmltf.org/military-law...
When this fact was stated by a group of public servants (+veterans), the US President promised to EXECUTE them. By hanging.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
Americans reject dictatorship.
nlgmltf.org/military-law...
When this fact was stated by a group of public servants (+veterans), the US President promised to EXECUTE them. By hanging.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
Americans reject dictatorship.
FAQ on Refusing Illegal Orders - Military Law Task Force
This FAQ (drafted by members of the MLTF) can also be found in printable PDF format here: Illegal Orders FAQ – 11NOV2025 DoD Instruction 1325.06 permits a servicemember to possess a single copy of th...
nlgmltf.org
November 21, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Soldiers in the United States military have a right to refuse unlawful orders.
nlgmltf.org/military-law...
When this fact was stated by a group of public servants (+veterans), the US President promised to EXECUTE them. By hanging.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
Americans reject dictatorship.
nlgmltf.org/military-law...
When this fact was stated by a group of public servants (+veterans), the US President promised to EXECUTE them. By hanging.
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/u...
Americans reject dictatorship.
Source for TR's 1918 speech: www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org/quotes/
Quotes Archive - Theodore Roosevelt Center
www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org
November 21, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Source for TR's 1918 speech: www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org/quotes/
This is what the US Dept of Labor looked like last night.
In 1918, Teddy Roosevelt said:
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
In 1918, Teddy Roosevelt said:
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
November 21, 2025 at 3:27 PM
This is what the US Dept of Labor looked like last night.
In 1918, Teddy Roosevelt said:
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
In 1918, Teddy Roosevelt said:
“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”
The potential benefits of migration are not identical everywhere.
This remarkable new resource from @niskanencenter.bsky.social maps the US counties where the economic benefits of immigration might be highest —>
www.niskanencenter.org/mapping-amer...
This remarkable new resource from @niskanencenter.bsky.social maps the US counties where the economic benefits of immigration might be highest —>
www.niskanencenter.org/mapping-amer...
November 21, 2025 at 3:22 PM
The potential benefits of migration are not identical everywhere.
This remarkable new resource from @niskanencenter.bsky.social maps the US counties where the economic benefits of immigration might be highest —>
www.niskanencenter.org/mapping-amer...
This remarkable new resource from @niskanencenter.bsky.social maps the US counties where the economic benefits of immigration might be highest —>
www.niskanencenter.org/mapping-amer...
Here is the scholarship, if you're interested.
In the drafting of the 14th Amendment, "Subject to the jurisdiction of" meant "under the sovereign authority of".
Sovereign authority is the basis for deportation, so it obviously covers unauthorized immigrants.
www.law.georgetown.edu/georgetown-l...
In the drafting of the 14th Amendment, "Subject to the jurisdiction of" meant "under the sovereign authority of".
Sovereign authority is the basis for deportation, so it obviously covers unauthorized immigrants.
www.law.georgetown.edu/georgetown-l...
www.law.georgetown.edu
November 21, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Nazism and all its fetid cousins have no place among our public servants and among the men and women entrusted with the powers and duties of the uniform.
This is not difficult, and Conservative and Liberal Americans overwhelmingly agree on it. We are sick of extremists and their cowardly lies.
This is not difficult, and Conservative and Liberal Americans overwhelmingly agree on it. We are sick of extremists and their cowardly lies.
November 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Nazism and all its fetid cousins have no place among our public servants and among the men and women entrusted with the powers and duties of the uniform.
This is not difficult, and Conservative and Liberal Americans overwhelmingly agree on it. We are sick of extremists and their cowardly lies.
This is not difficult, and Conservative and Liberal Americans overwhelmingly agree on it. We are sick of extremists and their cowardly lies.
Under a massive bipartisan backlash, they reversed course.
But ask yourself why even attempting to do this was a policy priority, at the highest levels of Homeland Security, in the first place.
But ask yourself why even attempting to do this was a policy priority, at the highest levels of Homeland Security, in the first place.
Coast Guard reverses course on policy to call swastikas and nooses 'potentially divisive'
The U.S. Coast Guard has released a new, firmer policy addressing the display of hate symbols like swastikas and nooses just hours after it was publicly revealed that it made plans to describe them as...
apnews.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Under a massive bipartisan backlash, they reversed course.
But ask yourself why even attempting to do this was a policy priority, at the highest levels of Homeland Security, in the first place.
But ask yourself why even attempting to do this was a policy priority, at the highest levels of Homeland Security, in the first place.
The US Administration moved to allow members of our armed forces to display the Nazi swastika, at supervisors' discretion.
Nazism is not Conservative. It's poison for all of us.
Yet the Administration kneecaps university after university under the tissue-thin pretext of rooting out 'antisemitism'.
Nazism is not Conservative. It's poison for all of us.
Yet the Administration kneecaps university after university under the tissue-thin pretext of rooting out 'antisemitism'.
Coast Guard Reverses Noem's Embrace of Swastikas and Nooses
The embattled Homeland Security secretary’s plan to ease hate symbol rules totally backfired, prompting swift reversal to prohibit divisive symbols in all Coast Guard facilities.
migrantinsider.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
The US Administration moved to allow members of our armed forces to display the Nazi swastika, at supervisors' discretion.
Nazism is not Conservative. It's poison for all of us.
Yet the Administration kneecaps university after university under the tissue-thin pretext of rooting out 'antisemitism'.
Nazism is not Conservative. It's poison for all of us.
Yet the Administration kneecaps university after university under the tissue-thin pretext of rooting out 'antisemitism'.
The language of the Constitution is as plain on this point as any constitutional language *could* be.
Lower courts already ruled unequivocally on this point and there is no need for SCOTUS to be debating this at all.
Presidents who do not like what the Constitution says can propose amending it.
Lower courts already ruled unequivocally on this point and there is no need for SCOTUS to be debating this at all.
Presidents who do not like what the Constitution says can propose amending it.
If unauthorized immigrants were not "subject to the jurisdiction of the United States", there would be no legal basis to seize and remove them.
The extremists twisting this very plain language in knots could instead simply amend the Constitution.
They're doing this because they know they'd fail.
The extremists twisting this very plain language in knots could instead simply amend the Constitution.
They're doing this because they know they'd fail.
November 21, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The language of the Constitution is as plain on this point as any constitutional language *could* be.
Lower courts already ruled unequivocally on this point and there is no need for SCOTUS to be debating this at all.
Presidents who do not like what the Constitution says can propose amending it.
Lower courts already ruled unequivocally on this point and there is no need for SCOTUS to be debating this at all.
Presidents who do not like what the Constitution says can propose amending it.
The Supreme Court meets today to consider the President's wish to suspend part of our Constitution: the 14th Amendment securing citizenship for US natives.
I joined with 95 other social scientists to document the costs of this act for the United States.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
I joined with 95 other social scientists to document the costs of this act for the United States.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
November 21, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The Supreme Court meets today to consider the President's wish to suspend part of our Constitution: the 14th Amendment securing citizenship for US natives.
I joined with 95 other social scientists to document the costs of this act for the United States.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
I joined with 95 other social scientists to document the costs of this act for the United States.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Reposted by Michael Clemens
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
bloom.bg
November 21, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist
Economist Troup Howard et al. have shown that prior mass deportation under the Obama administration drove *up* housing prices, against by cutting supply without much reducing demand.
In other words, the Dept. of Homeland Security is fabricating economic claims flatly contradicted by econ research.
In other words, the Dept. of Homeland Security is fabricating economic claims flatly contradicted by econ research.
www.trouphoward.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Economist Troup Howard et al. have shown that prior mass deportation under the Obama administration drove *up* housing prices, against by cutting supply without much reducing demand.
In other words, the Dept. of Homeland Security is fabricating economic claims flatly contradicted by econ research.
In other words, the Dept. of Homeland Security is fabricating economic claims flatly contradicted by econ research.
By the way, mass deportation causes rising prices in the United States.
This is because it removes a crucial ingredient of production in key sectors like food and construction, without reducing demand much.
Sane demand chasing reduced supply —> higher prices. @piie.com analysis here:
This is because it removes a crucial ingredient of production in key sectors like food and construction, without reducing demand much.
Sane demand chasing reduced supply —> higher prices. @piie.com analysis here:
Trump’s deportation plans would cause lower US employment and GDP than otherwise
Former president Donald Trump has promised to carry out the "largest deportation program in American history," a step targeting unauthorized immigrants and endorsed in the Republican Party's 2024 plat...
www.piie.com
November 21, 2025 at 3:35 AM
By the way, mass deportation causes rising prices in the United States.
This is because it removes a crucial ingredient of production in key sectors like food and construction, without reducing demand much.
Sane demand chasing reduced supply —> higher prices. @piie.com analysis here:
This is because it removes a crucial ingredient of production in key sectors like food and construction, without reducing demand much.
Sane demand chasing reduced supply —> higher prices. @piie.com analysis here: