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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 3h

The first op-ed I ever wrote was for the WaPo. It was where the public facing part of my career got its start.

And it was about the need to punish those convicted of violence less.

I’m gonna guess it would not make the cut now.

It’s really sad to see it reduced to pushing for a Trump peace prize.

Philip Bump @pbump.com · 5h

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

* Ok, a depressing footnote.

The Horton ad was seen as so racist that a few years later, dying of brain cancer, Atwater apologized for the ad.

You can see it here. It’s shocking … bc it wouldn’t make a list of top 50 racist add today.

That’s less good. But still: we can change that too.

Willie Horton 1988 Attack Ad

YouTube video by llehman84

youtu.be

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

It’s ironic that I look to Reagan for optimism.

But then everything is usually upside down in the criminal legal reform world.

So I’ll take the hope wherever I can get it.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

At one level, this is deeply depressing. We are, when it comes to crime, in a crazily dark place.

But the take I hold on to, to stay sane?

None of this is permanent. It just feels that way.

The politics of crime are currently a mess. But we can change that. We HAVE TO.

And we can.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

In other words, when it comes to crime, today’s Democratic politicians are to the right of … Reagan.

The man who adopted one of the first gun control laws bc Black Panthers were openly carrying.

Who launched his 1980 campaign in Philadelphia… Mississippi.

That man.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

This man.

a man in a suit and tie says conservatives forever

Alt: a man in a suit and tie says conservatives forever Thanks AI. That “man” is little-known actor Ronald Reagan.

media.tenor.com

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

Years before, in another state, two ppl on furlough committed separate murders. One killed a cop.

The state’s law enforcement world demanded that the governor kill the law.

He refused. Furloughs were essential to rehab, he said. The program stays.

This liberal hero of a governor?

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

That’s the bad story. About how our politics of crime are terrible. Better lots of ppl needlessly rot in prison lest one bad case gets weaponized in racist bad faith and the media runs with it.

But here’s my bizarro optimistic part of this story.

This obv wasn’t the first furlough to go bad.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

And that’s been the story for years—you can’t risk it. Always be harsh, always fear the sensationalization of one case, data doesn’t matter, policy doesn’t matter. If it bleeds, it leads … to defeat.

Fear of a Willie Horton event has been used to justify bad policy for decades.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

Now, with hindsight, political scientists feel that the ad has little to no effect on Dukakis’s loss.

But at the time, it was seen as a real blow: one bad case (again: we knew abt the 99% success rate AT THE TIME) costs you an election.

Don’t risk it.

Every state repealed their furlough program.

It’s time to stop the endless hype of the ‘Willie Horton’ ad

It doesn't deserve its place in American political lore.

www.washingtonpost.com

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

Then-Gov Dukakis didn’t sign the law into effect, but he did reauthorize it.

In the 1988 Prez campaign, a group led by Bush strategist Lee Atwater produced the infamous “Willie Horton” ad, which used the case to make Dukakis look soft on crime.

Seen as deeply racist,* it went viral.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

William Horton was serving time for felony murder (didn’t do the killing, was w those who did). Goes on several furloughs without incident.

But on his fourth (I think), in 1987: flees to MD, breaks into a home, stabs the man, rapes the woman there.

Now serving life in Maryland prison.

Willie Horton Revisited

We talk to the man who became our national nightmare. Thirty years later, does he still matter?

www.themarshallproject.org

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

Bet many are familiar with the Willie Horton Effect.

If not, here’s the tl;dr:

Up into the 1980s, ~all states had furlough programs, which allowed ppl in prison to go home some weekends, to maintain ties for their eventual release.

MA was one such state. 99% returned without incident. But one?

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 6h

I was going to make a snide remark abt how the “party of personal responsibility” sure can’t seem to … take that, then be all gloomy abt how the press will still treat those claims as sincere.

But instead, I want to be uncharacteristically optimistic.

So: my fav bizarro-crim reform politics story.

Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 10h

Can you hear the words coming out of your mouth, Megan?

Yes, the guy who received so many threats because of your own actions he had to flee to Europe isn’t the real victim. No. You are, because people called you out.

Megyn Doyle, a student at Rutgers and the treasurer for the Turning Point USA chapter who started the Change.org petition to remove Bray, told Fox News Digital in a statement that Di Filippo's petition is slanderous.
"The petition once again proves that Conservative students are always on the receiving end of hate when speaking about concerning issues," Doyle said.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 9h

Thanks!

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 13h

I mean, that’s no joke! Deer scare me far more than any mugger.

I can replace a credit card.

But Lyme disease? Or, worse, that Lone Star no-meat one?

Deer are nothing more than tick vectors, and I stay as far from them as possible!

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 13h

Did you see that the Boston Globe ran an explainer on what a “Kavanaugh Stop” is? It’s catching on and going mainstream!

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

Oh, Gallup graphs are from here: news.gallup.com/poll/652763/...

Smaller Majorities Say Crime In U.S. Is Serious, Increasing

Americans' views of national and local crime have improved since last year, largely due to Democrats' more positive perceptions.

news.gallup.com

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

But hiding from the issue is not going to solve that problem--it will only make it worse.

The Dems have to attack this issue head-on, and the wildly growing partisan split on the issue strikes me as giving them room to do so.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

That said, Dem pols do raise a valid point: the general media environment is strongly stacked against them:

Quick to hype any rise, absolutely unwilling to celebrate a decline.

Accepts politicized police account as objective truth.

Sets burden of proof WAY higher for any non-police idea.

The Democrats Have a Crime Problem. Blame the Media.

How news coverage fuels the widespread, misguided perception that crime is up and cities are unsafe

newrepublic.com

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

This holds true for thinking "is crime a serious issue." Also interesting to note that it persists for "crime near you"--GOPers are apparently now afraid of even their shadows, but Dems are more grounded on this issue.

That gives Dem pols more room to push back against the narrative.

Crime as serious/extremely so: GOP = 78, independent = 52, Dem = 35

More crime locally: GOP = 69, Independent = 52, Dem = 23

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

I might end up talking about this graph all day.

I think one thing Dems need to realize is that "Americans" are not buying into the "cities on fire" lies of this admin.

It's JUST Republicans. So if you're a governor of a solidly blue state, or a blue-city mayor, the national story is NOT YOURS.

Gallup poll showing a wild divergence in "is crime rising" over the past two years, w GOP at 90, independents at 68, Dems at 29.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

Non-white foreigners attack the US, the US gears up to go to war with a non-white country ... and it's Dems who are freaking out far more than the GOP, translating those fears into incorrect answers about rising crime.

I don't know why--I just noticed this--but think it matters.

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

Also, it's definitely the case that Dems were less happy with Bush's decision to invade Iraq in response (I feel like the absolutely massive protests I saw in Chicago at that time have all been memory-holed), and feared the impact of that choice.

But that's still not "national crime."

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John Pfaff @johnpfaff.bsky.social · 15h

Dems reacted with much greater fear than Republicans in 2001-02--the national spike that year is almost entirely Dem-driven.

Maybe that's bc Dems live disproportionately in cities, and living in any city in the early 2000s meant being barraged with changing color warnings.

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