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Nathan Kalmoe (he/him)

@nathankalmoe.bsky.social

12K followers 3.4K following 610 posts

PoliSci/Comm @ UW-Madison via UMich. Views mine, ~90% right. US democracy, votes, violence, history, psych. Post-post-post-post doc. Dad w/ jokes. Unlapsed 🧙🏻. 🥏⛳🏆. Avid 🧗. Congress said I have "tremendous sway over SM platforms" 😂 nathankalmoe.com .. more

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Political science 44%

Sociology 21%

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Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 1h

The center I work in has fielded some current event-type knowledge questions, incl on immigration, but not that.

Takes up a some space to give a little description... Could do it as split-ballot rather than multiple evals if the sample is large enough.

Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 2h

"It means insisting that any presidential candidate who challenges Trump’s warped constitutional vision offer a different one, committed to democracy & freedom for all—& be ready to use every tool consistent w/ the rule of law to advance that vision..."

Not crumbs on kitchen tables, @democrats.org.

Deva Woodly @devawo.bsky.social · 2h

“When courts close doors, people can open new ones… As the preamble to the document makes clear, “we the people” are the ultimate sovereigns.”

Opinion | The Constitution Doesn’t Belong to Trump or the Supreme Court

www.nytimes.com

Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 2h

Reminder: Ratifying the current constitution ignored the existing constitution, justified by popular sovereignty.

The people can rightly alter the constitution when it is a fair reflection of public will, amendment process be damned.

We are more legit than SCOTUS, Congress, Pres, & constitution.

Deva Woodly @devawo.bsky.social · 2h

“When courts close doors, people can open new ones… As the preamble to the document makes clear, “we the people” are the ultimate sovereigns.”

Opinion | The Constitution Doesn’t Belong to Trump or the Supreme Court

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Melanie C. Green

Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 2h

YG offered to give us extra sample when we told them about the 20% -- we said happy to get more, but this is actually what we wanted to test.

One reason they gave was low literacy, which is a whole diff angle most researchers don't think about in these studies. 21% of US adults are illiterate!

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Deva Woodly @devawo.bsky.social · 2h

“When courts close doors, people can open new ones… As the preamble to the document makes clear, “we the people” are the ultimate sovereigns.”

Opinion | The Constitution Doesn’t Belong to Trump or the Supreme Court

www.nytimes.com

9 27

Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 2h

Even more pathetic-funny than THE Ohio State University.

Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 2h

He wanted it so bad :(

@WhiteHouse: THE PEACE PRESIDENT
08 Oct 25

Reposted by Melanie C. Green

Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 2h

This is a reminder that even the best opt-in samples have large numbers of dubious respondents, even after their standard filters.

I was shocked when @lilymasonphd.bsky.social & I fielded what we thought was an easy attn check (what was the prior weird Q about? 5 choices). 20% of YG failed.

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

And that's the conservative estimate. By other measures, over 70% of Lucid respondents in the study were professional survey takers. For comparison, by that same alternative measure only 16% of YouGov respondents were

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Philip Bump @pbump.com · 2h

Why should Fox Business care about Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize? No reason except that Trump wants it and the Fox anchor is deeply committed to him. That’s it.

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 2h

The NYT remains one of the biggest threats to academic freedom. Do not support it!

Gregg Gonsalves @gregggonsalves.bsky.social · 5h

Thank you @nytopinion.nytimes.com for publishing this rot. Marc Rowan has run hundreds of companies into the dust to extract profits from their failure and bankruptcies. Now he wants to do the same to American higher education. Do not believe a word this man says. 1/ www.nytimes.com/2025/10/10/o...

Opinion | Trump’s ‘Compact’ With Universities Is Badly Needed

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

unraveled @unraveledpress.com · 2h

This is the furthest back from the detention center we've seen police force people to demonstrate (note: this is local cops, not DHS/ICE).

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Brandon Friedman @brandonfriedman.bsky.social · 2h

He wanted it so bad :(

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Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 2h

Yeah, I think that's still a standard distinction...hard to publish an observational analysis w/ these samples, but survey experiments are accepted.

You're right that there are so many great polling outfits w/ public data (incl yours!) but they rarely have covariates folks want for tests.

Reposted by Michael W. Kraus, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Jack Tripper @chadstanton.blacksky.app · 2h

“We should replace Bad Bunny with Lee Greenwood” is an also a perfect summation of the “deal” they’ve offered universities.

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Sarah J. Jackson @sjjphd.bsky.social · 2h

I just want to live in a world where kids learn civics and history in school and words mean things.

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 3h

I don’t know, and I would also point out that the data here were collected six years ago. But I do like this paper comparing (on other measures) a bunch of panels osf.io/preprints/ps...

OSF

osf.io

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Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 3h

How about for the constellation of other cint-type vendors? I imagine similar to Cint?

Nathan Kalmoe (he/him) @nathankalmoe.bsky.social · 3h

😬

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

More than a third of Lucid (now Cint) respondents in 2019 were "professional" respondents according to a new article in @polanalysis.bsky.social , and that's the conservative estimate

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Dave Jorgenson @davejorgenson.bsky.social · 3h

Trump didn’t win the Nobel Peace Prize but his administration did manage to create nonexistent enemies all over the country.

This week’s in-depth look at the stories behind our @lni.media videos, from @bychrisvazquez.bsky.social

lni.media/p/what-we-ta...

What we talk about when we talk about rebellion

Dive into the week's pivotal legal battles and LGBTQIA+ rights coverage, exploring how court decisions reshape lives and challenge ongoing societal challenges.

lni.media

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Reposted by Chris Hanretty, Elaine Treharne, Federica Genovese , and 1 more Chris Hanretty, Elaine Treharne, Federica Genovese, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Katie Phang @katiephang.bsky.social · 3h

“This is a movement…This is an achievement of a whole society…I am just one person.”

The beautiful humility of Venezuelan pro-democracy leader, Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient.

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Reposted by Dana R. Fisher, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

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Reposted by Melissa R. Michelson, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 4h

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Reposted by Mattias Hallquist, Jamie Morgan, Fabián Muniesa , and 10 more Mattias Hallquist, Jamie Morgan, Fabián Muniesa, Shelly Lundberg, Rebecca Tushnet, Silvia Secchi, Scott A. Imberman, Michael H. Whitworth, Ann Bartow, Nelson Flores, Guillaume Allègre, Albin Wagener, Nathan P. Kalmoe

The Oregonian @oregonian.com · 11h

Things are happening at Portland's ICE facility tonight.

Read more of our protest coverage here: www.oregonlive.com/crime/2025/1...

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe, David Darmofal

Gabe Ortíz @tusk81.bsky.social · 12h

$20 BILLION.

Remember that we’re being lied to whenever we’re told that we can’t afford something that helps American families.

The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 13h

The Trump administration confirmed that the U.S. bailed out Argentina.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he had directly bought Argentine pesos in global currency markets in a bid to relieve pressure on the nation’s embattled President Javier Milei, a supporter of President Trump.

The U.S. just bailed out Argentina, Treasury Secretary confirms

The US Treasury has finalized a $20 billion financial rescue of Argentina, including a currency swap arrangement with the country's central bank.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Reposted by Efrén O. Pérez, Melanie C. Green, Alan Richardson , and 4 more Efrén O. Pérez, Melanie C. Green, Alan Richardson, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Brian Keegan, Nathan P. Kalmoe, David Darmofal

ProPublica @propublica.org · 13h

Kristi Noem, while governor of South Dakota, supplemented her roughly $130,000 salary by secretly accepting $80,000 donated to a political nonprofit she was affiliated with, records show.

She never disclosed this income on federal ethics forms.

(Published June)

Kristi Noem Secretly Took a Cut of Political Donations

A dark money group paid $80,000 to Noem’s personal company when she was governor of South Dakota. She did not include this income on her federal disclosure forms, a likely violation of ethics requirem...

www.propublica.org

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Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Richard S.J. Tol, Will Jennings , and 7 more Jan W. Mueller, Richard S.J. Tol, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Rosemary A. Joyce, Aaron Sojourner, Lisa Diedrich, Manisha Sinha, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Peter Bergman

Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 13h

www.wweek.com/culture/2025...

Can you put into words what that purpose is? You and the frog have really become icons of this protest.

There’s been a nice overall whimsy that has shown up. The frog is amazing. We had a bunch of other inflatable people here last night, too. I saw people playing Twister the other day.

What they rely on is fear. So by coming out in an absurdist manner, it speaks to them, to some extent, that we’re actually not that afraid.

It also dismantles their narrative a little bit. When they try to describe this situation as “war-torn,” it becomes much harder to take them seriously when they have to post a video saying [U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security] Kristi Noem is up on the balcony staring over the Antifa Army and it’s, like, eight journalists and five protesters and one of them is in a chicken suit.

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Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Smith , and 5 more Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Smith, Rebecca Tushnet, David R. Miller, Ann Bartow, Rebecca Zorach, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 13h

"30-year-old conservative lawyer and activist who is Trump’s nominee to lead the Office of Special Counsel, which deals with federal employee whistleblower complaints and discrimination" cancelled his colleague's hotel room so she would be forced to stay with him.
www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

In late July, Paul Ingrassia, the White House liaison for the Department of Homeland Security, arrived at a Ritz-Carlton in Orlando with a lower-ranking female colleague and others from their department. When the group reached the front desk, the woman learned she didn’t have a hotel room.

Ingrassia then informed her that she would be staying with him, according to five administration officials familiar with the episode. Eventually the woman discovered that Ingrassia had arranged ahead of time to have her hotel room canceled so she would have to stay with him, three of those officials said.

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 14h

he does not regret to inform you and neither do I

Willamette Week @wweek.com · 14h

Jack Dickinson, 26, says “we’re winning this.”

An Interview With the Portland Chicken

Rachel Saslow

www.wweek.com

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

Tom Clark @tomsclark.bsky.social · 14h

It's really bad for the rule of law and liberal democracy when a judge says of a government agency, "“DHS’s narrative of events is simply unreliable.”

apnews.com/article/nati...

Judge blocks National Guard deployment in Illinois for 2 weeks

A judge has blocked the deployment of National Guard troops in the Chicago area for two weeks, finding no substantial evidence that a “danger of rebellion” is brewing in Illinois.

apnews.com

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Reposted by Lesley A. Hall, Melanie C. Green, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò , and 2 more Lesley A. Hall, Melanie C. Green, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Colin Woodard

Matt Gabriele @profgabriele.com · 15h

I know this case is all over - & it should be - but Turning Point USA has waged a harassment campaign against faculty for more than a decade. I know of at least a half dozen other faculty, personally, who have received death threats and several of those who felt so unsafe they too left their homes

David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 15h

Are we great yet?

Mark Bray, a Rutgers University professor and expert on anti-fascist groups, is fleeing to Spain with his family due to death threats that stem from a campaign by Turning Point USA and other conservative groups to get him fired, falsely labeling him as an antifa member.

Antifa expert at Rutgers University says he is moving to Spain because of death threats

An expert on anti-fascist groups who teaches at New Jersey’s flagship state university is moving his family overseas.

apnews.com

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe