Tarik Abou-Chadi
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tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi
@tabouchadi.bsky.social
20K followers 740 following 950 posts

Professor of European Politics at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. Elections, parties, social democracy & the radical right. he/him. 🏳️‍🌈

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tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · Jul 7
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Simon Otjes, Justin H. Kirkland , and 6 more

nathaliegiger.bsky.social
Nathalie Giger @nathaliegiger.bsky.social · 6h
🔔Job Alert 🔔
Thrilled to share that @stefaniebailer.bsky.social and I have been awarded 1.5 million CHF in SNSF funding for our new project: “Electoral choice: Which role does legislators’ quality play?”
We’re recruiting 1 postdoc and 2 PhD candidates to join us in Basel and Geneva!

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Cas Mudde, Ben H. Ansell , and 57 more

rutgerbregman.com
Rutger Bregman @rutgerbregman.com · 7h
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.

They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Tarik Abou‐Chadi , and 2 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 12h
@brendannyhan.bsky.social is right: young people are reluctant to come to the defense of institutions that have excluded them, ignored them, and crushed their movements

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
Consider the experiences of the last few years. The racial justice movement that peaked in 2020 ended in disappointment and backlash. The Gaza protests provoked intense conflict without delivering clear political or policy victories for their organizers. Maybe most important, Mr. Trump himself is back in the White House, suggesting a futility to opposition and activism among young people who have only ever known him as the central figure in our politics. He first took the oath of office when today's first-year college students were in elementary school. The electoral choices offered to young people are not much better. Given the realities of our dysfunctional two-party system, the only alternative to a Trump-dominated G.O.P. is the Democratic Party, which is dominated by a decadent gerontocracy whose elites were more likely to attend a wedding in the Hamptons than a No Kings protest on the same day.

Reposted by Stephen P. Jenkins, Susan Hyde, Valerie Mueller , and 7 more

florianfoos.bsky.social
Florian Foos @florianfoos.bsky.social · 20h
We have a new tenure-track job in @lsegovernment.bsky.social at AP level (empirical political science, open subfield): jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/... Please apply and share with colleagues who might be interested!
Assistant Professor in Political Science
Assistant Professor in Political Science, , <p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</span></em></p> <p style="text-ali...
jobs.lse.ac.uk

Reposted by Will Jennings, Ruth Dassonneville, Steffen Mau , and 4 more

indubioproreto.bsky.social
Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 1d
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!

We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.

Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇

Reposted by Simon Hix, Lukas F. Stoetzer, Robert Huber , and 2 more

haasvioleta.bsky.social
Violeta Haas @haasvioleta.bsky.social · 2d
Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us

Reposted by Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

catherinedevries.bsky.social
Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 3d
Thank you for writing this @casmudde.bsky.social saves me to have to explain this every other week to journalists and politicians! This plus the great work by @tabouchadi.bsky.social et al & @turnbulldugarte.com et al should now hopefully settle this issue.

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
"Danish model" in the article specifically refers to immigration policy. Not the Nordic model of the welfare state and economic policy or anything like that.

Reposted by Fabián Muniesa

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
I increasingly get asked why then do parties still do it. I don't have a good response but it has imho a lot to do with internal decision making, power struggles and political advisors. I don't think politicians should just "follow the research" but it is striking how many arguments are just wrong.

Reposted by Simon Hix, Ben H. Ansell, Jan Rath , and 11 more

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
Cas Mudde spells out what has become largely the consensus among researchers: moving right on immigration will not weaken the far right nor strengthen social democracy. If your reaction is "but in Denmark" please at least familiarize yourself with Danish politics

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Kai Arzheimer, Richard Hayton , and 2 more

asheinze.bsky.social
Anna-Sophie Heinze @asheinze.bsky.social · 3d
🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
The leader can even use your lack of subordination to show his benevolence. But he might act differently tomorrow.
I have said it before but Trump really resembles a late-stage personalistic dictator. They can cause unbelievable harm but have problems to institutionalize authoritarian rule.

Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Philipp Sarasin

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
A fascinating scene to understand how personalistic regimes work. First, there is an in-or-out decision by the leader. This is always in flux, deliberately uncertain and essential to extract rents and exert power. When you are on the inside the substance of what you say and do becomes secondary.
thetnholler.bsky.social The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 3d
Q: “Are you affirming you think Trump is a fascist?”

TRUMP: “That’s ok, you can just say yes.”

ZOHRAN: “Ok. Yes.”

Reposted by Sabine Pahl, Philipp Sarasin, Gerardo Martí , and 3 more

thetnholler.bsky.social
The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 3d
Q: “Are you affirming you think Trump is a fascist?”

TRUMP: “That’s ok, you can just say yes.”

ZOHRAN: “Ok. Yes.”

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
Data from a project with @markuskollberg.bsky.social and @fraraffaelli.bsky.social

Reposted by Will Jennings, Tim Bale, Justin H. Kirkland , and 3 more

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
Labour is desperately trying to appeal to Reform supporters. In October, we asked people in the UK if they perceive a party as a "party for someone like them". Only very few people say this for both Labour and Reform. The correlation is negative. Labour is chasing an electorate that does not exist.

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 3d
Me too! 😍

Reposted by Will Jennings, Lucas Leemann, Robert Huber , and 4 more

mabreyer.bsky.social
Magda Breyer @mabreyer.bsky.social · 5d
New article out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social with Tabea Palmtag and @dpzollinger.bsky.social 📝
We use open-ended survey questions (in Germany) to assess how and among whom social status shifts are perceived. This tests cultural backlash narratives in voters' perceptions.

🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0010...
Abstract It is widely accepted in political science – and remarkably established in public discourse – that status anxieties fuel a far right backlash against progressive politics. This narrative suggests that right-wing conservatives perceive the status of women, racial, or sexual minorities as threatening. Using open-ended survey questions fielded in Germany, we show that women and minorities indeed figure in people’s perceptions of status hierarchies, but in very specific ways: First, overall, people still perceive status as largely socioeconomically determined. Second, sociocultural groups figure in perceptions of who is gaining/losing status, less so in perceptions of the top/bottom of society. Third, more than conservative voters, it is social progressives who mention women and minorities as “winners”. While on race/ethnicity, we find evidence for a backlash, on gender and sexuality we find more evidence for a progressive momentum. This matters for progressive politics today and for how we empirically study status concerns.

Reposted by Tim Bale, Jane Green

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 5d
The far right will be the dominant force on the right in Europe within the next 5-10 years. Most focus is still on how to prevent this but imho too many mistakes have been made that have created path dependencies. We need to focus more on what it means for our democracies when we reach this stage.
timbale.bsky.social Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 5d
Strongly suspect that this is what will happen here in 28/9. Tories will replace Badenoch with a leader prepared to try it and Farage (as per 2019 but this time as the senior partner) will continue to deny he'll do a stand-down deal - right up until the point he does one.
French conservatives are inching towards a pact with Le Pen that could enable a far-right takeover of the country | Paul Taylor
In trying to woo Le Pen’s voters, Les Républicains risk destroying France’s Gaullist legacy and putting Paris on a collision course with the EU, says Paul Taylor of the European Policy Centre
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Simon Wren‐Lewis, Jane Green, Seán Hanley , and 2 more

timbale.bsky.social
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 5d
Strongly suspect that this is what will happen here in 28/9. Tories will replace Badenoch with a leader prepared to try it and Farage (as per 2019 but this time as the senior partner) will continue to deny he'll do a stand-down deal - right up until the point he does one.
French conservatives are inching towards a pact with Le Pen that could enable a far-right takeover of the country | Paul Taylor
In trying to woo Le Pen’s voters, Les Républicains risk destroying France’s Gaullist legacy and putting Paris on a collision course with the EU, says Paul Taylor of the European Policy Centre
www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Benjamin Braun, Nazita Lajevardi, Sebastian Kohl , and 1 more

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 7d
Next week, with the Progressive Politics Research Network, we are going to publish 8 new research briefs on the politics of housing. While housing has become a huge grievance across Europe, it is often absent from progressive parties‘ agendas. Our group of experts discusses different aspects of this

Reposted by Tarik Abou‐Chadi

nilsredeker.bsky.social
Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 7d
Im EU-Parlament wurde letzte Woche erstmals ein relevantes Gesetz mit den Stimmen der extremen Rechten beschlossen.

Das ist ein guter Anlass, sich diese Woche dieses unheimlich kluge Gespräch zwischen @tabouchadi.bsky.social und @emcke.bsky.social anzuhören.

www.sueddeutsche.de/meinung/podc...
SZ-Podcast: Tarik Abou-Chadi über Rechtspopulismus und die Fehler der Demokraten
Haben SPD und CDU mit ihrer Rhetorik den Aufstieg der AfD begünstigt? Abou-Chadi sagt: Ja. Warum, erklärt er im Podcast.
www.sueddeutsche.de

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 8d
Important to debunk the idea that they weakened the far right. But there is no more left bloc in Danish politics. The social democrats govern with the right. It‘s not surprising that when a party moves to the right, eventually it‘s coalition choices change as well.

Reposted by Will Jennings, Chris Hanretty

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 8d
Fascinating how often political commentary in the UK still refers to the median voter. In a multi-dimensional space with salience endogenous to positions, it‘s unclear to me who that should be. In a multi-party system, winning the median voter is of course not necessarily a vote-maximizing strategy.

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 9d
Do people in the Labour party think that you can recover from this? Is there any historic precedent for turning something like this around? Starmer has tied himself to a strategy, that strategy has failed. The consequence should be quite clear.
ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Ipsos in the UK @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social · 9d
NEW from Ipsos

Satisfaction with the PM remains unchanged since September, continuing to be the worst ever recorded by Ipsos for a Prime Minister, going back to 1977…

Reposted by Will Jennings, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
Ipsos in the UK @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social · 9d
NEW from Ipsos

Satisfaction with the PM remains unchanged since September, continuing to be the worst ever recorded by Ipsos for a Prime Minister, going back to 1977…

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 10d
Danke! Ja, ich finde es beschreibt die Situation ganz gut

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Tim Bale

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 10d
Research on this is clear: the uncertainty created by this policy will lead to people integrate less into British society. It is trading-off the reasonable policy goal of integration for the useless symbolism of immigration numbers. Bad policy to appease the far right.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
UK set to limit refugees to temporary stays
Shabana Mahmood is expected to say the era of permanent protection for refugees is over, in major changes to the UK's asylum and immigration system.
www.bbc.co.uk

Reposted by Cas Mudde, Anna O. Law, Ben H. Ansell , and 14 more

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 10d
Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵
Racial Resentment Among White Americans by Birth Year and Demographics This figure presents the same four-panel layout (education, gender, geography, religion) but for White Americans from birth years 1940 to 2000. Education panel: A pronounced divide shows non-college Whites with substantially higher resentment across all cohorts, increasing sharply for older birth years. College-educated Whites rise more modestly but remain distinctly lower, especially among younger cohorts. Gender panel: Male and female trendlines rise together, with women slightly higher in mid-century cohorts. Younger cohorts of both genders start lower and climb with age. Geography panel: Regional lines separate clearly: the South is highest in resentment, followed by the Midwest. The West and Northeast show lower levels, with the Northeast consistently at the bottom. All regions slope upward toward older cohorts. Religion panel: Protestants show the highest resentment, peaking among mid-century cohorts. Catholics sit in the middle. Non-affiliated Whites show the lowest resentment, especially among younger respondents, with a small rise among mid-century generations. The figure notes CES 2024 data with GAM-smoothed trendlines.

Reposted by Anita Gohdes

tabouchadi.bsky.social
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 11d
Auf jeden Fall etwas ganz besonderes, wenn man in seinem Lieblingspodcast zu Gast sein darf. Mit @emcke.bsky.social habe ich über die radikale Rechte in Europa gesprochen. Darüber wie Sozialdemokraten und Konservative zu ihrem Aufstieg beigetragen haben.

open.spotify.com/episode/2MLZ...