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Isabelle Guinaudeau

@iguinaudeau.bsky.social

2.6K followers 1.1K following 88 posts

Political scientist, CNRS researcher at Sciences Po, CEE - currently at IPZ University of Zurich: researching comparative politics, party competition and how elections shape policy

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Political science 73%

Sociology 8%

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Reposted by Simon Hix, Sara B. Hobolt, Alexander Wuttke , and 2 more Simon Hix, Sara B. Hobolt, Alexander Wuttke, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Zeynep Somer-Topcu @zeynsom.bsky.social · 9d

Still confused about EPSA vs. EPSS? Which conference should you go to? Here is a link to clarify things: epssnet.org/uncategorize... TL;DR: "EPSA" community will be in Belfast. Same community, new organisation, bigger mission; slightly new name; and a very different foundation @epssnet.bsky.social

a man with glasses says look can 't you see it 's obvious netflix

ALT: a man with glasses says look can 't you see it 's obvious netflix

media.tenor.com

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Sep 9

Our paper on issue competition now with page numbers 😊 Grossman & Guinaudeau (2025), "Tunnels of Attention: Reconsidering Issue Competition", Comparative Political Studies, vol. 58, no. 2, pp. 2559-2593.

Emiliano Grossman @egrossman.bsky.social · Nov 28

Some papers are a long time in the making. This one, written with the excellent @iguinaudeau.bsky.social, took long and I am incredibly grad to see it published. 1/8 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Reposted by Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller, Chris Hanretty , and 2 more Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller, Chris Hanretty, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Ronja Sczepanski @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social · Sep 1

Ever asked yourself how to detect and extract social groups from texts with computational social science? @haukelicht.bsky.social and me have a solution for you out at @bjpols.bsky.social. You can also find the pre-trained models on huggingface!

British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · Sep 1

NEW -

Detecting Group Mentions in Political Rhetoric A Supervised Learning Approach - cup.org/45WZppQ

- @haukelicht.bsky.social & @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

BJPolS Abstract discussing a social science research method that uses text analysis for understanding group language patterns and political leanings, mentioning the use of British articles and generating new empirical insights.

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Reposted by Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller, Robert Huber , and 2 more Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller, Robert Huber, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Tarik Abou‐Chadi

British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · Sep 1

NEW -

Detecting Group Mentions in Political Rhetoric A Supervised Learning Approach - cup.org/45WZppQ

- @haukelicht.bsky.social & @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

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Reposted by Cas Mudde, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · Sep 1

As we enter September, you may see posts with news of jobs, promotions, grants, fellowships, and the like. That’s great! We should celebrate with colleagues, especially in an industry where rejection is the modal outcome. 1/n

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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau

Sciences Po @sciencespo.bsky.social · Jul 21

Vous cherchez à explorer les attitudes électorales sous la Vᵉ République ?
Grâce à ReQuest, retrouvez les enquêtes par sondage en sciences humaines et sociales pertinentes pour vos sujets de recherche.
Un outil précieux du @cdsp-sciencespo.bsky.social pour comparer les données➡️ request.sciencespo.fr

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Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Catherine E. De Vries, Christian Flachsland , and 2 more Ben H. Ansell, Catherine E. De Vries, Christian Flachsland, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Juanjo Medina

Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · Jul 16

The Portuguese far right party CH has been growing spectacularly, shattering views of the country as immune to this phenomenon.

This has prompted a discussion about where their votes come from.

Some thoughts on this, prompted by newly released survey data:

Plot with the evolution of vote share for CH:
1.3% to 7.28 % to 18.06% to 22.08%

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Reposted by Sara B. Hobolt, Isabelle Guinaudeau

Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · Jul 3

Received a complimentary copy of “Foundations of European Politics” after commenting on new chapters. Such a good textbook: clear theory, empirical evidence, and free interactive data exercises.

@catherinedevries.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @sopro.bsky.social @jbslapin.bsky.social

Vote shares of populist parties across Europe

Frequency of majority, minority, and caretaker governments in Europe

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Reposted by Hugo Mercier, Lucas Leemann, Sona Golder , and 4 more Hugo Mercier, Lucas Leemann, Sona Golder, Martin Kreidl, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Dieter Stiers, Joost van Spanje

Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · Jun 30

‼️ There are a few more days left to apply for the PhD positions in my group at KU Leuven. Make sure to send in applications by July 4! 👇

Ruth Dassonneville @rdassonneville.bsky.social · Jun 3

I'm recruiting 2 PhD researchers to work with me on a project studying how social groups influence vote choices!

Info on the position and how to apply 👉 www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...

Please share with interested students who would like to move to beautiful Leuven!

2 PhD positions in Electoral behavior

2 PhD positions to research how social group memberships become connected to vote choices

www.kuleuven.be

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Reposted by Ruth Dassonneville, Isabelle Guinaudeau

Cornelius Erfort @cornelius-erfort.bsky.social · Jun 26

I took a closer look at the program #EPSA2024 and found some interesting trends – there seem to be more US based scholars than last year 🇺🇸

@epsanet.bsky.social‬

A thread on this year's authors and affiliations 🧵

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Jun 25

Very happy to be at the EPSA conference in Madrid and to ne about to meet so many colleagues on the programme - including the Paris folks I had missed while in Germany 😊

Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social · Jun 25

#EPSA2025 starts tomorrow!

A dozen of our scholars have papers on political lotteries, challenges to democracy, autocratic legacies, the fate of mainstream parties, group-targeting in politics and media, climate politics, culture wars / backfire...

👉Details here: www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...

EPSA 2025 - Madrid
26 - 28 June
espanet.org

Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau

Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social · Jun 25

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Jun 23

... and impossible to walk through the beautiful streets of Göttingen without having Barbara's song playing in my head. A chanson about reconciliation. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwW5...

Barbara - Göttingen (Official Lyric Video)

YouTube video by BarbaraOfficielVEVO

www.youtube.com

Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Jun 23

I love discovering academic traditions like this one in Göttingen — a handcart parade for new PhDs 😅 It was a real pleasure to read and discuss Robin Rentrop’s excellent thesis on how the youths' descriptive representation shapes their substantive representation in parliament.

Theres Matthieß @theresmatthiess.bsky.social · Jun 23

Very proud of Dr. @robrentrop.bsky.social who defended his doctoral thesis on the link between descriptive & substantial youth representation! 🎉👨🏻‍🎓🥳 As the tradition demands in Göttingen, we went to the Gänseliesel with a decorated handcart 😅 @iguinaudeau.bsky.social @ifdemgoettingen.bsky.social

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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau

Theres Matthieß @theresmatthiess.bsky.social · Jun 23

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Reposted by Christian Nadeau, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Charles Girard , and 1 more Christian Nadeau, Isabelle Guinaudeau, Charles Girard, Benjamin Boudou

Aurélia Bardon @aureliabardon.bsky.social · May 26

Alors que la trentaine d'autrices et auteurs qui y ont contribué sont en train de corriger les épreuves de leurs chapitres, @bboudou.bsky.social et moi venons de recevoir la couverture de ce traité sobrement intitulé "Théorie Politique" - à paraître, si tout va bien, en septembre 2025!

Book cover with title "Théorie politique"

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Apr 14

Merci encore de me les avoir fait découvrir !

Reposted by Ruth Dassonneville, Rafael H. M. Pereira, Isabelle Guinaudeau

Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · Apr 10

📚😅🎉

Yay!! I just submitted the complete manuscript of my upcoming book to the publisher!

Learn to easily and clearly interpret (almost) any stats model w/ R or Python. Simple ideas, consistent workflow, powerful tools, detailed case studies.

Read it for free @ marginaleffects.com

#RStats #PyData

Model to Meaning: How to interpret statistical models with marginaleffects for R and Python

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 26

Fantastisch ! Vielen Dank für die sehr nützliche Zusammensetzung und Analyse dieser Befunde.

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Reposted by Isabelle Guinaudeau

Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · Mar 26

Ende letzter Woche gab es einige Einwände gegen diesen Post. Ich habe deshalb nochmals Befunde zu sozial- und wirtschaftspolitischen Einstellungen der AfD-Wählerschaft zusammengetragen. Ebenfalls habe ich zu diesem Thema Survey-Daten der GLES und des ALLBUS ausgewertet. Ein langer Thread.🧵

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 21

Thanks a lot!

Reposted by Marieke Louis

Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 21

📢 The French Political Science Association would like to map initiatives to disseminate political science findings to a broader audience (podcasts, blogs, policy briefs...) 👀 Which ones would you recommend (in english, french or german)?

(self-promotion very welcome, thanks!)

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

Please get in touch if you are interested in reading the full paper and learning more about how coalitions constrain mandate representation!

Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

We wil see in the coming weeks the compromises CDU and SPD will have to find on the other topics for which they have made antagonist promises (actually most policy areas, as the open expert survey shows). oes25.de/OES25prerele...

Parteienwettbewerb vor der Bundestagswahl im Spiegel des Open Expert Surveys

oes25.de

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

Merz’s hardline pledge on debt was likely made knowing it would be untenable (because of coalition constraints AND structural investment needs). He likely hoped to win votes on fiscal rigor and shift blame for making huge debts onto partners (which does not seem to work very well).

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

The need to relax Germany’s constitutional debt brake isn’t new. 🔴 SPD and 🟢 Greens have long made the case that the situation (in particular with regard to infrastructures and climate transition) would become intractable otherwise. Merz and the ⚫️ CDU knew this.

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

Merz’s U-turn on the debt brake could thus be seen as an example of coalition constraints: election pledges meet the realities of bargaining. Compromise is inevitable when multiple parties must govern together. But there’s more to the story.

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

... and the SPD has made relaxing the debt brake a precondition. Important pledges (which we measure as those repeated several times in the program) are pushed by the coalition partners and more likely to survive:

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

This should favor the CDU which controls almost twice as many seats as the SPD. At the same time, the SPD is pivotal for government-formation. The CDU has not much alternative.

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Isabelle Guinaudeau @iguinaudeau.bsky.social · Mar 20

8/ Larger parties dominate negotiations and secure more (up to 75%) of their pledges, while small parties place much less (down to 40% for the Greens in 2002). Gamson's Law seems to extend from office to policy payoffs.

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