Jason Reifler
@jasonreifler.bsky.social
Political Science Prof at University of Southampton. I study misperceptions, fact-checking, and foreign policy attitudes. American in the UK. he/his (y'all whenever possible). Spurs #COYS.
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Jason Reifler
@jasonreifler.bsky.social
· Jun 12
The most popular thing I did on the old site was telling people about my rejections. Failure and rejection is a big part of academic life. It happens to all of us -- well, at least everyone I know. This thread lists mine and is founded on the hope it helps other people cope better with their own.
“We’re a cup team” is somehow now even worse
Thomas Frank — I think you may have misinterpreted what Spurs fans mean when they say “we’re a cup team.” Or, based on the reaction, maybe we are and I’m the one who misunderstood.
Seems true based on what we watch game in/game out, but also seems totally bonkers that someone could reach the height of coaching without ideas of what to do in possession. I don’t want to believe that! But, trouble decomposing skill vs luck in one’s prof success is not unique to football.
Are Spurs not doing better with players capable of better because they don’t fit Frank’s system, or because there are fundamental flaws to Frank’s system in terms CL places/competing for a title that cannot be overcome with the “right” players?
(a) My gut about ceiling with current squad *of available players* is 6th-8th in xPTS (a very imprecise range), and with good luck could finish above that (and below with bad luck).
(b) I’m just simply not enough of a tactics person to know what to do instead of “this” in specific executable terms.
(b) I’m just simply not enough of a tactics person to know what to do instead of “this” in specific executable terms.
Yes, the current set of available players is capable of better than Spurs current PL rank of 16th in xG, 16th in xGA, and 12th in xPTS. The two part question is given the group of available players, (a) what is the actual ceiling and (b) what tactical changes would allow them to achieve that level.
(We’ll never see it, but a midfield 3 of Palhinha, Biss, and Maddison would have had a lot of things going for it.)
(I’m sure Jamestown Analytics has a better and more precise estimate.) With current table, 3-6 more points would be a very different narrative — even if we were still frustrated by the tactics.
I’m not saying the tactics would have been wildly different, but maybe somewhat different. And a world with those four players getting regular minutes (even with the same tactics), I think results would be better. Not challenging for the title better, but ~3-6 points better seems not unreasonable.
The timing of Palhinha’s transfer means was prob in works before Maddison’s ACL. Not sure if he had put Biss in the deep freeze by then. Dom’s injury not projected to last half the season, and maybe expected an earlier return for Kulu. Palhinha more understandable in that context.
Very reasonable stance, and likely correct. While I’m clearly grasping at straws/ODing on copium — I don’t want to over read one transfer window, especially for a loan player. What seems plausible to me is that Frank thought Spurs would be better than this. And maybe CL/EL bubble enough 1st year.
Fair critique. If Spurs get better passers in January and don’t improve, then that makes clear that Frank’s tactics are the problem. Which then makes the case for a change. Whoever then takes over in June can probably use good passers.
Or, the faint hope Frank changes tactics with better passers?
Or, the faint hope Frank changes tactics with better passers?
January 6, 2026 — my first revise and resubmit of the year where a reviewer is unhappy that we have used OLS for a seven point Likert scale. Reviewer can have their ordered probit/logit. I wonder if the results will be basically the same. Spoiler: they will.
Idle Spurs speculation of the worst sort: is the (possible) Paratici move to Fiorentina partly about paving the way for some kind of multi-club structure between the billionaire Lewises and the billionaire owner of Fiorentina. I feel like pulling that off that would be peak wheeler-dealer Paratici.
No, thank you!
Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders
This Time Is Not Different (except there are even less competent people in charge, the international order is dead, and we have the foreign policy of a personalist dictatorship).
goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...
goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...
An important and sobering foreign policy analysis of the US action in Venezuela by one of the best @profsaunders.bsky.social.
Reposted by Jason Reifler, Tom Louwerse
This Time Is Not Different (except there are even less competent people in charge, the international order is dead, and we have the foreign policy of a personalist dictatorship).
goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...
goodauthority.org/news/what-ha...
Maybe? I would love to see the counterfactual of what Spurs would look like now under Ange given personnel differences. (Hojbjerg I think would have been a great fit for Frank.)
What a great year, and one to be really proud of! Well done!
I’m not sure last year’s attacking personnel were genuinely lesser. Son, Maddison, Kulusevski, Solanke as a front four is (imho) better in every position than current typical front four (Kudus, Simons, Richy, RKM). Bissouma would be very helpful with current midfield.
I’m a tiny bit more sympathetic on this point simply because Palhinha is a loan. We don’t really know what the behind the scenes conversations were, and what the long term planning might be. But, agree that’s it not reassuring at all.
I love the idea of Chirpy tearing across Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on a giant Harley.
Go Deacs! (As a Wake fan, I feel well prepared in my Spurs fandom. No lead is big enough to be safe.)
4) I’m not a fan of reflexively firing the coach. Frank seems like a smart guy and a genuinely good person. Astoundingly, Spurs only 2 points off conf league/3 off Europa with half a season to play. But watching/going to games feels as much something to endure than enjoy. Hoping for a big January.
3) Is the lack of sustained attacks really a problem of the defense and midfield retaining possession in the buildup and not progressing the ball? Is that personnel, tactics, or both? Feels like it’s both.
2) With Simons suspended, Bergvall injured, and Sarr at AFCON, I understand why this midfield was selected. But, I had hoped that “pragmatic” Frank would have had a more creative solution. A back 3? Tel/Odobert/Kudus at the 10? VdV at lb?
Thoughts on Spurs and Frank after the Brentford game.
1) Spurs are not fun to watch. With Johnson leaving, Spurs are without their best 5 attacking players from last season (2 back soon?). How much is this turgid play due to Frank and how much is lack of proven top tier PL attacking players?
1) Spurs are not fun to watch. With Johnson leaving, Spurs are without their best 5 attacking players from last season (2 back soon?). How much is this turgid play due to Frank and how much is lack of proven top tier PL attacking players?
Me: I really need to spend less time on football (Spurs) January transfers.
Also me: I want to read in depth profiles of every potentially available left footed defender and every progressive passing defensive midfielder.
Also me: I want to read in depth profiles of every potentially available left footed defender and every progressive passing defensive midfielder.
I always prefer a Spurs win, and the high comedy of the full scenario is too good.
If only this match were game-week 19, it could well be another El Sackico.
If only this match were game-week 19, it could well be another El Sackico.
Facebook is testing a monthly $14.99 subscription, and telling users they need to subscribe if they want to post more than 2 links a month.
techcrunch.com/2025/12/17/f...
techcrunch.com/2025/12/17/f...
Facebook is testing a link-posting limit for professional accounts and pages | TechCrunch
Meta said that the test impacts professional accounts and pages on Facebook.
techcrunch.com
Maybe being a tech executive is genuinely hard, but as a casual doom scroller so much seems to be “don’t shoot yourself in the d**k challenge (impossible).”