Elizabeth N. Saunders
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profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders
@profsaunders.bsky.social
19K followers 3.3K following 2.4K posts

Professor of Political Science & Director of the Saltzman Institute of War & Peace Studies, Columbia. New Book: The Insiders' Game: How Elites Make War and Peace https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691215808/the-insiders-game .. more

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profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · Feb 5
Hard to think through problems when we are in a mode where the current problem gets eaten by a bigger problem within hours.

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders

joerglau.bsky.social
Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 3h
So this is Steven Witkoff coaching Putin‘s advisor Ushakov about how to please Trump

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 4h
This is an excellent idea

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 4h
Just what the situation needs
onestpress.onestnetwork.com Olga Nesterova @onestpress.onestnetwork.com · 4h
DOD: “Hegseth will travel tomorrow to Santo Domingo, DR to meet with President Abinader, Min of Def Lt. Gen. Onofre and Cabinet officials to strengthen relationships and reaffirm America's commitment to defend homeland, protect regional partners and ensure stability and security across Americas”

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders

onestpress.onestnetwork.com
Olga Nesterova @onestpress.onestnetwork.com · 4h
DOD: “Hegseth will travel tomorrow to Santo Domingo, DR to meet with President Abinader, Min of Def Lt. Gen. Onofre and Cabinet officials to strengthen relationships and reaffirm America's commitment to defend homeland, protect regional partners and ensure stability and security across Americas”

Reposted by David R. Miller

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 5h
Seriously, what are we doing, America? We’re helping Russia destroy a democratic country it illegally invaded, one amateur phone call at a time.
peark.es George Pearkes @peark.es · 5h
Someone (Rubio?) is MEGA pissed at the Ukraine peace plan situation if they leaked a full on *recording* of this Witkoff call (with transcript, lol).
(Bloomberg) -- US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, fresh from the triumph of the Gaza peace deal, held a phone call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest they work together on a similar plan for Ukraine — and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with Donald Trump. In an Oct. 14 phone call that lasted a little over five minutes, Witkoff advised Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy aide, on how the Russian leader should broach the issue with Trump. His guidance included suggestions on setting up a Trump-Putin call before Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s White House visit later that week and using the Gaza agreement as a way in. “We put a 20-point Trump plan together that was 20 points for peace and I’m thinking maybe we do the same thing with you,” Witkoff told Ushakov, according to a recording of the conversation reviewed and transcribed by Bloomberg. A White House spokesperson, Anna Kelly, acknowledged receipt of a request for comment and didn’t immediately respond. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to comment. 

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 5h
OMG
peark.es George Pearkes @peark.es · 5h
This is really wild stuff tbh
During his call with Ushakov, Witkoff told his Russian counterpart that he had deep respect for Putin and that he had told Trump that it was his belief that Russia has always wanted a peace deal. The US envoy mentioned Zelenskiy’s upcoming visit and suggested that Putin could speak to Trump ahead of that meeting. “Zelenskiy is coming to the White House on Friday,” Witkoff said. “I will go to that because they want me there, but I think if possible we have the call with your boss before that Friday meeting.”  Ushakov asked Witkoff whether it would be “useful” for Putin to call Trump. Witkoff said it would. He also recommended that Putin congratulate Trump for the Gaza peace deal, say that Russia had supported it and that he respects the president as a man of peace. “From that, it’s going to be a really good call,” Witkoff said. Steve Witkoff “Here’s what I think would be amazing,” Witkoff then added. “Maybe he says to President Trump: you know, Steve and Yuri discussed a very similar 20-point plan to peace and that could be something that we think might move the needle a little bit, we’re open to those sorts of things.” Ushakov appeared to take some of the advice on board. Putin “will congratulate” and will say “Mr Trump is a real peace man,” he said.

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders, Brendan Nyhan, David R. Miller , and 1 more

peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 5h
This is really wild stuff tbh
During his call with Ushakov, Witkoff told his Russian counterpart that he had deep respect for Putin and that he had told Trump that it was his belief that Russia has always wanted a peace deal. The US envoy mentioned Zelenskiy’s upcoming visit and suggested that Putin could speak to Trump ahead of that meeting. “Zelenskiy is coming to the White House on Friday,” Witkoff said. “I will go to that because they want me there, but I think if possible we have the call with your boss before that Friday meeting.”  Ushakov asked Witkoff whether it would be “useful” for Putin to call Trump. Witkoff said it would. He also recommended that Putin congratulate Trump for the Gaza peace deal, say that Russia had supported it and that he respects the president as a man of peace. “From that, it’s going to be a really good call,” Witkoff said. Steve Witkoff “Here’s what I think would be amazing,” Witkoff then added. “Maybe he says to President Trump: you know, Steve and Yuri discussed a very similar 20-point plan to peace and that could be something that we think might move the needle a little bit, we’re open to those sorts of things.” Ushakov appeared to take some of the advice on board. Putin “will congratulate” and will say “Mr Trump is a real peace man,” he said.

Reposted by Edward Witten, Elizabeth Saunders, Will Jennings , and 13 more

bloomberg.com
Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 5h
EXCLUSIVE: US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff advised Russia on how to pitch Ukraine plans to Trump, in audio files reviewed by Bloomberg
Witkoff Advised Russia on How to Pitch Ukraine Plan to Trump
US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, fresh from the triumph of the Gaza peace deal, held a phone call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest they work together on a similar plan for Ukraine — and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with Donald Trump.
bloom.bg

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Elizabeth Saunders

peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 5h
Someone (Rubio?) is MEGA pissed at the Ukraine peace plan situation if they leaked a full on *recording* of this Witkoff call (with transcript, lol).
(Bloomberg) -- US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, fresh from the triumph of the Gaza peace deal, held a phone call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest they work together on a similar plan for Ukraine — and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with Donald Trump. In an Oct. 14 phone call that lasted a little over five minutes, Witkoff advised Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy aide, on how the Russian leader should broach the issue with Trump. His guidance included suggestions on setting up a Trump-Putin call before Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s White House visit later that week and using the Gaza agreement as a way in. “We put a 20-point Trump plan together that was 20 points for peace and I’m thinking maybe we do the same thing with you,” Witkoff told Ushakov, according to a recording of the conversation reviewed and transcribed by Bloomberg. A White House spokesperson, Anna Kelly, acknowledged receipt of a request for comment and didn’t immediately respond. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to comment. 

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 5h
Yes because the unflattering headlines are the problem.
carlquintanilla.bsky.social Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 6h
(MSNOW) - President Trump is considering removing Kash Patel as FBI director in the coming months, as he and his top aides have grown increasingly frustrated by the unflattering headlines Patel has recently generated, according to three people with knowledge ..

@ms.now
www.ms.now/news/trump-k...

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders

carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 6h
(MSNOW) - President Trump is considering removing Kash Patel as FBI director in the coming months, as he and his top aides have grown increasingly frustrated by the unflattering headlines Patel has recently generated, according to three people with knowledge ..

@ms.now
www.ms.now/news/trump-k...

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
Thread on new piece in @iojournal.bsky.social with @sdhyde.bsky.social. Part of open-access special issue on the future of international order and global governance -- 15 syllabus-friendly pieces on the current moment and its implications.

Reposted by Shannon Vallor, Elizabeth Saunders, Jonathan Wolff , and 3 more

davey.bsky.social
Davey Alba @davey.bsky.social · 10h
NEW: AI “recipe slop” is overrunning search and social. Food creators say Google’s AI Overviews and glossy fake food pics are drowning out real, tested recipes — collapsing traffic and setting home cooks up for disaster, especially this Thanksgiving.

Gift link: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
AI Slop Recipes Are Taking Over the Internet -- And Thanksgiving Dinner
Food bloggers see traffic dip as home cooks turn to AI, inspired by impossible pictures
www.bloomberg.com

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders

paulguinnessy.bsky.social
Paul Guinnessy @paulguinnessy.bsky.social · 10h
To cut to the chase, despite the belief of our tech overlords (who by coincidence, send their kids to schools that ban technology) there is no improvement in educational performance by providing kids with access to laptops. #education
Laptops in the Long Run: Evidence from the One Laptop per Child Program in Rural Peru
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
Makes good sense.
luciankim.bsky.social Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 1d
The question I get asked most often is how to understand Trump's push-me-pull-me Ukraine policy. To me there are a few constants that don't change:
1) He really wants to end the war fast. Results over process.
2) He respects Putin and wants a good relationship with Russia. 👉

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
The article is open access, one of 15 short pieces in a @iojournal.bsky.social special issue on the future of global governance. All give perspectives on the current moment that are good for spring syllabi. Kudos to @bashleyleeds.bsky.social & @laynamosley.bsky.social & team for this effort. 10/10

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
US leadership has a long history of terrible mistakes and consequences for people around the world. But, consider the alternatives. We are in for a world where an unconstrained US means less cooperation and more unpredictable aggression. Welcome to the unconstrained future of world order. 9/

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
Aside from all the current damage Trump is raining down on the country and the world, the long-term implications are bleak. Even if a future president wanted to return the US to a leadership role, the economic and political foundations are structurally weakened. 7/
diminished.71 But the implications of an unconstrained United States go beyond whether it is willing to engage in this kind of international leadership in the future and how other countries might react. Unlike the transition after Trump’s first term, a future president who wants to recommit to a strong US role in global governance may find the country lacks the capacity to do so. If the behaviors that led to the United States’ sterling reputation for sovereign debt repayment are undermined by this instability and unpredictability, the foundation of US economic and military power may crumble.

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
What does it mean? Well, if you take all the findings on democratic advantages since the end of the Cold War and invert them, that's a good guide to the new world we're in. 6/
To understand the implications of these changes for global governance and order, consider the thought experiment of inverting prior scholars’ findings about the democratic advantage and domestic audience constraint. For example, the inverse of Cowhey’s “credibility advantage” suggests that in the absence of domestic political institutions, US commitments to multilateral institutions of any kind are unreliable. Martin’s work, inverted, suggests that without legislative or other constraints on the executive, multilateral economic sanctions will be further undermined. Lake’s early work on the democratic peace suggests that an unconstrained United States will be more likely to become involved in wars it is less likely to win, and potentially more expansionist in ambition. Leeds’s emphasis on democratic alliance reliability can be inverted to suggest that the United States will now be a less reliable partner. Similarly, the consistency of foreign policy commitments will also be undermined.

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
The last trend picks up on some of the themes I wrote about in my June @foreignaffairs.com piece on why we have the foreign policy of a personalist dictatorship. 5/ www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
Why? We point to 3 trends: information fragmentation; extreme polarization; and a threat environment, especially after 9/11, that gave the U.S. president enormous power. Leaders can now escape domestic constraint more easily, undermining the accountability that underpins democratic advantage. 4/

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
It is not just global retrenchment, it's the ability to provide public goods at home that have spillovers abroad. Science & tech, defense, state capacity, credible commitments -- the things that we thought democracies had advantages in, gone. 3/
Abstract: Any theoretically informed predictions about the future of international order and global governance must reckon with the power and intentions of the United States.We argue that fundamental changes in the nature of domestic audience constraint within many democracies, and the United States in particular, undermine both the willingness and the capability of the United States to continue its role as the underwriter of international order and global governance. A US government unbound by domestic constraint will have difficulty building broad coalitions to solve national and international problems because it will have reduced incentives to invest in public goods, including national defense, science and technology, and future economic prosperity; reduced barriers to corruption that undermines the quality of and trust in US capabilities; and reduced state capacity, including the capacity to finance wars and other long-term international commitments. We argue that three trends were especially relevant in reshaping domestic audience constraint: information fragmentation, extreme polarization, and a global threat environment that facilitated executive power concentration. Together they reduce the costs and risks for leaders to escape domestic audience constraints, weakening the institutional and accountability mechanisms that give democracies advantages in the international system. Though these trends affect many democracies, the undermining of US domestic constraint is particularly consequential because the United States shaped and buttressed the current system. An unconstrained United States likely means a less cooperative and less predictable global order, irrevocably altering the post-1945 system.

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
As @sdhyde.bsky.social and I write in the new special issue of @iojournal.bsky.social, the assault on democratic constraint gutted not just the willingness but also the *capacity* of democracies to lead in the int'l system. The US has the most power and underwrote the postwar order. No more. 2/

Reposted by Daniel W. Drezner

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
🧵 Grim watch for sell-out of Ukraine and/or bombing of Venezuela show we are in a new era. Welcome to the unconstrained future of world order. 1/

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
The Unconstrained Future of World Order: The Assault on Democratic Constraint and Implications for US Global Leadership | International Organization | Cambridge Core
The Unconstrained Future of World Order: The Assault on Democratic Constraint and Implications for US Global Leadership - Volume 79 Issue S1
www.cambridge.org

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
The real Trump Doctrine

Reposted by David Darmofal

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 10h
Really something to think that one man--Donald Trump--is letting his minions freelance the fate of not one but two countries' citizens (Ukraine and Venezuela), and those minions don't agree on much but most want to sell out one and bomb the other, and the world is reduced to tantrum management.
bgrueskin.bsky.social Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 12h
One man -- Marco Rubio -- serves this country as both National Security Adviser and Secretary of State.

And he was nowhere near the drafting of that Ukraine 'peace plan,' which was instead devised by the president's real-estate buddy and his son-in-law.

🎁
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
A majority of the plan’s provisions were written by Witkoff and Kushner before they consulted Russian and Ukrainian representatives, a person familiar with its drafting said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was handed a copy of the plan at the White House during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Nov. 18 visit to Washington, a person familiar with the situation said. Axios reported the draft’s existence that evening. Rubio was aware of the Witkoff-Kushner initiative but didn’t know the full scope of what they had drafted before then, officials said.

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 11h
Also quite notable the difference in tone and framing in the UK press versus here (WSJ closer to UK, but a lot of other credulous reporting that does not provide the basic context of what happened).

profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 11h
Listened to UK commentary on US-Ukraine talks, analysts not holding back. Upshot is nobody can say what is really going on-that Zelensky/Europeans can't afford to anger Trump but this is either extremely dangerous or at best, going nowhere and then who does he blame. Shameful to see US back Russia.
bgrueskin.bsky.social Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 12h
One man -- Marco Rubio -- serves this country as both National Security Adviser and Secretary of State.

And he was nowhere near the drafting of that Ukraine 'peace plan,' which was instead devised by the president's real-estate buddy and his son-in-law.

🎁
www.wsj.com/world/russia...
A majority of the plan’s provisions were written by Witkoff and Kushner before they consulted Russian and Ukrainian representatives, a person familiar with its drafting said. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was handed a copy of the plan at the White House during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Nov. 18 visit to Washington, a person familiar with the situation said. Axios reported the draft’s existence that evening. Rubio was aware of the Witkoff-Kushner initiative but didn’t know the full scope of what they had drafted before then, officials said.

Reposted by Stephen M. Walt, Ben H. Ansell, Elizabeth Saunders , and 21 more

brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 11h
The Secretary of Defense, ladies and gentlemen

Reposted by Elizabeth Saunders

aphclarkson.bsky.social
Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson.bsky.social · 12h
Makes you wonder what Vance will say if Trump orders a US military attack on Venezuela