Elizabeth N. Saunders
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profsaunders.bsky.social
Elizabeth N. Saunders
@profsaunders.bsky.social
21K followers 3.4K following 2.8K posts
Professor of Political Science & Director of the Saltzman Institute of War & Peace Studies, Columbia. New Book: The Insiders' Game: How Elites Make War and Peace https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691215808/the-insiders-game
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profsaunders.bsky.social
📣📣📣Teaser!📣📣📣

Everything is terrible, but the kids are alright. Something new is coming this week from @siwpscolumbia.bsky.social via @goodauth.bsky.social. Stay tuned!
Empty chalkboard...what will fill it?
January 19, 2026 at 1:56 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
There is also a huge body of excellent work on the dual internal and external threats dictators face (links below). But my favorite source on this is a letter to President Kennedy from John Kenneth Galbraith, then Amb. to India, on South Vietnamese leader Ngo Dinh Diem, in Nov 1961. 4/
From Galbraith to JFK, Nov. 21, 1961 : "In my completely considered view, as stated yesterday, Diem will not reform either administratively or politically in any effective way. That is because he cannot. It is politically naive to expect it. He senses that he cannot let power go because he would be thrown out. He may disguise this even from himself with the statement that he lacks effective subordinates but the circumstance remains unchanged. He probably senses that his greatest danger is from the army. Hence the reform that will bring effective use of his manpower, though the most urgent, may be the most improbable." From https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674528376
January 5, 2026 at 1:50 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
🧵Day 3 and we have a new meaning for "running Venezuela," courtesy of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, who is in charge of Venezuela as well as the National Archives. We're going to insist they do what's in the US national interest. Time for some principal-agent theory. 1/
From State Dept transcript of Rubio appearance on This Week w/ George Stephanopolous: SECRETARY RUBIO: Well, we’re not going to judge moving forward based simply on what’s said in press conferences. We want to see action here at the end of the day. Rhetoric is one thing. You see rhetoric for a lot of different reasons. There’s a lot of different reasons why people go on TV and say certain things in these countries, especially 15 hours or 12 hours after the person who used to be in charge of the regime is now in handcuffs and on his way to New York. So what I will say is, moving forward, it’s very simple. We’re not going to be reactive here to statements at press conferences or what people say in a certain interview or what some media post – some media post somewhere. What we are going to react to is very simple: What do you do? Not what you’re saying in public – what happens? What happens next? Do the drugs stop coming? Are the changes made? Is Iran expelled? Is Hizballah no longer able and Iran no longer able to operate against our interests from Venezuela? Does the migration pattern stop? Do the drug trafficking boats end? Do you deal with the ELN and the FARC, two narcoterrorist organizations who control territory and operate with impunity from the territory of Venezuela against the interests of Colombia and the United States? These are the things we want addressed. If they are addressed, that’s how we’ll judge it. If they’re not addressed, that’s how we’ll judge it. QUESTION: And what happens if they’re not addressed?
January 5, 2026 at 1:50 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
The Party of National Security in 2 headlines
Two headlines in the New York Times, one on the recall of 30 ambassadors, the other on the new “Trump-class” warships
December 23, 2025 at 3:19 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
The Party of National Security
“We do not need ships that are not optimized to provide lethality against the Chinese threat,” Montgomery said, adding that the new frigate has “zero tactical use” because it will not be equipped with a vertical launch system or the Aegis ballistic defense system.  “That is not what these are focused on—they are focused on the president’s visual that a battleship is a cool-looking ship,” he said. 
December 22, 2025 at 9:11 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
In fairness, the article is more nuanced than this headline, especially the end, which acknowledges that hollow peace deals won't last and few are left at Rubio's State Dept to implement them. 2/
"Even if a deal does get done, it will be the true experts who work out the fine print — and make sure it lasts. Absent follow-through, the most grandiose efforts will not be enough to end the carnage. Getting two sides to a yes is only part one. But who will be there to finish the job? The everyday work of career officials has dramatically diminished. The State Department’s annual human rights reports have been pared down to the point of futility. The staffing level of the National Security Council has been reduced so significantly that it has led to open dysfunction. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, now also the acting national security adviser, has fired hundreds of State Department experts and members of the senior diplomatic corps."
December 15, 2025 at 12:50 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
When 2-factor authentication is just too much of a pain
“Afterward, one European official asked Witkoff to start speaking with allies over the secure fixed line Europe’s heads of state use to conduct sensitive diplomatic conversations. Witkoff demurred, as he traveled too much to use the cumbersome system.”
November 29, 2025 at 5:22 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
I mean…
“In the days after Alaska, a European intelligence agency distributed a hard-copy report in a manila envelope to some of the continent’s most senior national security officials, who were shocked by the contents: Inside were details of the commercial and economic plans the Trump administration had been pursuing with Russia, including jointly mining rare earths in the Arctic. “
November 29, 2025 at 5:10 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Aside from all the current damage Trump is raining down on the country and the world, the long-term implications are bleak. Even if a future president wanted to return the US to a leadership role, the economic and political foundations are structurally weakened. 7/
diminished.71 But the implications of an unconstrained United States go beyond whether it is willing to engage in this kind of international leadership in the future and how other countries might react. Unlike the transition after Trump’s first term, a future president who wants to recommit to a strong US role in global governance may find the country lacks the capacity to do so. If the behaviors that led to the United States’ sterling reputation for sovereign debt repayment are undermined by this instability and unpredictability, the foundation of US economic and military power may crumble.
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
What does it mean? Well, if you take all the findings on democratic advantages since the end of the Cold War and invert them, that's a good guide to the new world we're in. 6/
To understand the implications of these changes for global governance and order, consider the thought experiment of inverting prior scholars’ findings about the democratic advantage and domestic audience constraint. For example, the inverse of Cowhey’s “credibility advantage” suggests that in the absence of domestic political institutions, US commitments to multilateral institutions of any kind are unreliable. Martin’s work, inverted, suggests that without legislative or other constraints on the executive, multilateral economic sanctions will be further undermined. Lake’s early work on the democratic peace suggests that an unconstrained United States will be more likely to become involved in wars it is less likely to win, and potentially more expansionist in ambition. Leeds’s emphasis on democratic alliance reliability can be inverted to suggest that the United States will now be a less reliable partner. Similarly, the consistency of foreign policy commitments will also be undermined.
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
It is not just global retrenchment, it's the ability to provide public goods at home that have spillovers abroad. Science & tech, defense, state capacity, credible commitments -- the things that we thought democracies had advantages in, gone. 3/
Abstract: Any theoretically informed predictions about the future of international order and global governance must reckon with the power and intentions of the United States.We argue that fundamental changes in the nature of domestic audience constraint within many democracies, and the United States in particular, undermine both the willingness and the capability of the United States to continue its role as the underwriter of international order and global governance. A US government unbound by domestic constraint will have difficulty building broad coalitions to solve national and international problems because it will have reduced incentives to invest in public goods, including national defense, science and technology, and future economic prosperity; reduced barriers to corruption that undermines the quality of and trust in US capabilities; and reduced state capacity, including the capacity to finance wars and other long-term international commitments. We argue that three trends were especially relevant in reshaping domestic audience constraint: information fragmentation, extreme polarization, and a global threat environment that facilitated executive power concentration. Together they reduce the costs and risks for leaders to escape domestic audience constraints, weakening the institutional and accountability mechanisms that give democracies advantages in the international system. Though these trends affect many democracies, the undermining of US domestic constraint is particularly consequential because the United States shaped and buttressed the current system. An unconstrained United States likely means a less cooperative and less predictable global order, irrevocably altering the post-1945 system.
November 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
And here's Rubio, in December 2018 calling for punishing Saudi Arabia with more than a "diplomatic slap on the wrist." He's now the nation's top diplomat, maybe he could do something about that? A reporter should ask him.

www.cnn.com/2018/10/16/p...
“We lose our credibility and our moral standing to criticize (Russian President Vladimir) Putin for murdering people, (Syrian President Bashar Al-)Assad for murdering people, (Venezuelan President Nicolas) Maduro in Venezuela for murdering people,” Rubio said. “We can’t say anything about that if we allow Saudi Arabia to do it and all we do is a diplomatic slap on the wrist.”
November 18, 2025 at 8:17 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
And here's Graham threatening to hold up legislative business until CIA director Gina Haspel testified.

www.nytimes.com/2018/11/28/u...
Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina and a stalwart supporter of President Trump in recent months, vowed to freeze the administration’s legislative priorities until Ms. Haspel spoke to the Senate. “I’m talking about any key vote. Anything that you need me for to get out of town, I ain’t doing it until we hear from the C.I.A.,” Mr. Graham told reporters after the 90-minute briefing at the Capitol. He also promised there would “be no business as usual with Saudi Arabia” if American intelligence confirmed that Prince Mohammed was involved in Mr. Khashoggi’s killing. One United States official said that was precisely why the administration did not want Ms. Haspel to participate in the briefing.
November 18, 2025 at 8:17 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
There’s a lot of evidence that diversionary war is not really a thing. But if I were Venezuela right now…

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/u...
“The only thing missing is a strategic explanation from the Trump administration that would clarify why the United States is amassing such a large force. Mr. Hegseth's posting on X was only the latest in a series of statements from administration officials that, at best, are in tension with one another. Some are outright contradictory.”
November 15, 2025 at 9:38 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
The quotes in this story...this is not a video game.
“Maduro is about to find himself trapped and might soon discover that he cannot flee the country even if he decided to,” the source said. “What’s worse for him, there is now more than one general willing to capture and hand him over, fully aware that one thing is to talk about death, and another to see it coming.” Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312722642.html#storylink=cpy
October 31, 2025 at 12:56 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Sign with Trump hair saying “It’s you, hi, I’m the problem it’s you”
October 18, 2025 at 5:35 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Sign saying “ICE belongs in Antarctica” with a penguin
October 18, 2025 at 5:27 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
The masterstroke was to force Netanyahu to apologize to the Qataris. Not just the call, but releasing news of the apology, with a photo. Kudos to whoever thought of that. It was a costly signal from Bibi and showed Trump was seriously pressuring Israel. 5/
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Photo released by the White House showing Netanyahu on the call, apologizing to the Qataris, while Trump balances the phone on his lap.
October 15, 2025 at 3:35 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
So much for the foreign policy justification of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the nation's top diplomat, whose interviews are extensive quoted in the opinion:
"It is also arbitrary or capricious because it reverses prior policy without reasoned explanation or consideration of reliance interests, and is based on statutes that have never been used in this way."
September 30, 2025 at 6:35 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
This does not mince words about how Rubio and Noem misused the powers of their office to chill free speech. Undiplomatic and now, ruled unconstitutional.
For all these reasons, this Court finds as fact and concludes as matter of law that Secretaries Noem and Rubio and their several agents and subordinates acted in concert to misuse the sweeping powers of their respective offices to target noncitizen pro-Palestinians for deportation primarily on account of their First Amendment protected political speech. They did so in order to strike fear into similarly situated non-citizen proPalestinian individuals, pro-actively (and effectively) curbing lawful pro-Palestinian speech and intentionally denying such individuals (including the plaintiffs here) the freedom of speech that is their right. Moreover, the effect of these targeted deportation proceedings continues unconstitutionally to chill freedom of speech to this day.
September 30, 2025 at 6:16 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
🧵So this Trump post gives it away. Whatever this mysterious "Article 5-like" security guarantee Wittkoff mentioned, it'll be worth the paper it's printed on (and left on a hotel printer. 1/
Trump post on Truth social: "President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea....and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!"
August 18, 2025 at 1:07 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
News from the Federal Register: the State Department Historical Advisory Committee’s functions, including oversight of the Foreign Relations of the United States series, transferred to the Assistant Secretary of Administration.
Federal Register announcement of delegation of authority from Historical Advisory Committee to the Assistant Secretary for Administration
August 6, 2025 at 6:37 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Essential paragraph:
Excerpt: "The Trump administration talked about expanding manufacturing at home. But across the country, 400,000 factory jobs were currently vacant. “That’s what’s so crazy about this,” I was told by another community-college leader who asked not to be identified, out of fear of retaliation from federal and state officials. (“The stakes are too high for the students that we serve.”) Why short-circuit the schools that were the local engines of building the work force? Community colleges already subsisted on budgets that most four-year schools would find laughable, lean operations that delivered hefty returns on investment for their areas. Get care at a local doctor’s office, or prepped for surgery at a hospital, or treated after an accident, or have someone come to your home to do repairs — “those are all community-college grads, all of them,” the community-college leader told me. “This collateral damage is going to end up being regional economic damage.”"
August 4, 2025 at 1:32 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
Public wants moderate policies (secure border & path to citizenship, no dumb wars but fight necessary wars). But moderate policies will miss some calls, and hawkish turn won't help with the very sticky reputation on this issue. Don't believe me? Look at D reputation on natsec despite many D wars. 7/
Graph of Gallup responses from 2002-2020 to question, "Looking ahead for the next few years, which political party do you think will do a better job of protecting the country from international terrorism and military threats, the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?" D's never crack 50% and top R's only once, at nadir of Iraq War.
July 8, 2025 at 4:22 PM
profsaunders.bsky.social
What is time anyway
Trump says talks with Iran scheduled, Wittkoff says “will be in next week or so”
July 7, 2025 at 11:47 PM