Julius Kölzer
@juliusk.bsky.social
Doctoral Researcher in Political Science @dynamics.bsky.social & Research Associate @hertieschool.bsky.social | Sometimes working at Zeit Online | Interested in political geography, inequality and elections.
Pinned
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 9:48 AM
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Survey experiments promise causal insight, but they’re fraught. AI bots, lack of digital IDs, and platform bias mean sample isn’t representative. Even balanced arms can hide high‑dimensional heterogeneity. We need to question the data source, not just the treatment.
November 23, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Survey experiments promise causal insight, but they’re fraught. AI bots, lack of digital IDs, and platform bias mean sample isn’t representative. Even balanced arms can hide high‑dimensional heterogeneity. We need to question the data source, not just the treatment.
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Follower Power: Does anyone know where I can find regional socio-demographic or economic data for Germany for the early 1990s? Most variables in the INKAR database only start in 1995, so I’m looking for an alternative source.
November 23, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Follower Power: Does anyone know where I can find regional socio-demographic or economic data for Germany for the early 1990s? Most variables in the INKAR database only start in 1995, so I’m looking for an alternative source.
Follower Power: Does anyone know where I can find regional socio-demographic or economic data for Germany for the early 1990s? Most variables in the INKAR database only start in 1995, so I’m looking for an alternative source.
November 23, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Follower Power: Does anyone know where I can find regional socio-demographic or economic data for Germany for the early 1990s? Most variables in the INKAR database only start in 1995, so I’m looking for an alternative source.
"causally identify yourself"
November 21, 2025 at 9:44 AM
"causally identify yourself"
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Yes. But also, Orbán was in power for 14 years until finally a successful challenger emerged and Orbán's popularity drastically declined. So the interesting question to ask is: Why now? And why was Magyar so much more successful in his anti-corruption messaging than others before him?
Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
November 20, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Yes. But also, Orbán was in power for 14 years until finally a successful challenger emerged and Orbán's popularity drastically declined. So the interesting question to ask is: Why now? And why was Magyar so much more successful in his anti-corruption messaging than others before him?
Listening to this will fix all the problems in my R code
November 20, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Listening to this will fix all the problems in my R code
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Und all bringt auch Muster mit sich, was das Wählen betrifft... Welche Parteien sehen die jungen Leute eigentlich auf den Plattformen. Die Antwort ist eindeutig, aber auch dynamisch. 2024 rund um die EPW war es fast nur die AfD. 2025 liefern sich Linke u AfD ein Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen...
November 19, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Und all bringt auch Muster mit sich, was das Wählen betrifft... Welche Parteien sehen die jungen Leute eigentlich auf den Plattformen. Die Antwort ist eindeutig, aber auch dynamisch. 2024 rund um die EPW war es fast nur die AfD. 2025 liefern sich Linke u AfD ein Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen...
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Studienzeit - Fadenzeit. Erst gilt das angesichts der historischen Bedeutung des heutigen Tages, denn heute vor genau 53 Jahren fand die erste vorgezogene Bundestagswahl EVER statt. Noch dazu waren erstmals auch 18-, 19- u 20-Jährige dabei. Grund genug für eine Jugendwahlstudie zur BTW25.
November 19, 2025 at 7:30 PM
Studienzeit - Fadenzeit. Erst gilt das angesichts der historischen Bedeutung des heutigen Tages, denn heute vor genau 53 Jahren fand die erste vorgezogene Bundestagswahl EVER statt. Noch dazu waren erstmals auch 18-, 19- u 20-Jährige dabei. Grund genug für eine Jugendwahlstudie zur BTW25.
thinking about dropping a diss track against the parallel trends assumption
November 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
thinking about dropping a diss track against the parallel trends assumption
For Christmas, I want the parallel trens assumption to hold
November 17, 2025 at 7:25 AM
For Christmas, I want the parallel trens assumption to hold
Normalster Tag in Norddeutschland
November 16, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Normalster Tag in Norddeutschland
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Why do some towns seem to win every grant while others can’t get a single project approved?
@lorenzomascioli.bsky.social and I answer this question using all Italian NGEU projects in our paper forthcoming in Regional Studies. Here a Substack preview 👀 laurenleek.substack.com/p/what-drive...
@lorenzomascioli.bsky.social and I answer this question using all Italian NGEU projects in our paper forthcoming in Regional Studies. Here a Substack preview 👀 laurenleek.substack.com/p/what-drive...
What drives the uneven geography of development? Or 'why some towns always win'
We show that which places get funding and which miss out depends on whether local governments learn from neighbors, build on past experience, and leverage (or lack) administrative capacity.
laurenleek.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Why do some towns seem to win every grant while others can’t get a single project approved?
@lorenzomascioli.bsky.social and I answer this question using all Italian NGEU projects in our paper forthcoming in Regional Studies. Here a Substack preview 👀 laurenleek.substack.com/p/what-drive...
@lorenzomascioli.bsky.social and I answer this question using all Italian NGEU projects in our paper forthcoming in Regional Studies. Here a Substack preview 👀 laurenleek.substack.com/p/what-drive...
Was für Post Apocalyptic, das is legit jede zweite deutsche uni zwischen november und mai
November 15, 2025 at 8:14 PM
Was für Post Apocalyptic, das is legit jede zweite deutsche uni zwischen november und mai
Getting promising results after spending months in the dark depths of data collection
November 15, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Getting promising results after spending months in the dark depths of data collection
live to fight another day
November 15, 2025 at 8:14 AM
live to fight another day
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Publication Alert: @evertmeijers.bsky.social and I examined the spatial orientation of MPs in NL. We studied whether MPs' region of origin matters and the parties' electoral consequences. We show a paradox: peripheral places don't reward parties that pay attention to them doi.org/10.1111/tesg...
Unequal Political Representation of Core and Periphery: How Regions That Don’t Matter Vote for Parties That Don’t Bother
Geographical orientation of political party families in the Netherlands, 2017-2021.
doi.org
November 14, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Publication Alert: @evertmeijers.bsky.social and I examined the spatial orientation of MPs in NL. We studied whether MPs' region of origin matters and the parties' electoral consequences. We show a paradox: peripheral places don't reward parties that pay attention to them doi.org/10.1111/tesg...
Weimar Constitution safeguarding German democracy in the early 1930s
November 14, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Weimar Constitution safeguarding German democracy in the early 1930s
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Die AfD gibt sich als Partei der kleinen Leute – plant aber gigantische Steuersenkungen für die Reichen. Das oberste Prozent (ab 180k brutto) soll 45 Mrd € weniger zahlen, die Top 10% sogar 86 Mrd € weniger. Kaum Entlastung für Geringverdiener.
Berechnung @sbachtax.bsky.social exklusiv für @zeit.de
Berechnung @sbachtax.bsky.social exklusiv für @zeit.de
November 14, 2025 at 6:15 AM
Die AfD gibt sich als Partei der kleinen Leute – plant aber gigantische Steuersenkungen für die Reichen. Das oberste Prozent (ab 180k brutto) soll 45 Mrd € weniger zahlen, die Top 10% sogar 86 Mrd € weniger. Kaum Entlastung für Geringverdiener.
Berechnung @sbachtax.bsky.social exklusiv für @zeit.de
Berechnung @sbachtax.bsky.social exklusiv für @zeit.de
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
Thank you! Bsky thread to the paper: bsky.app/profile/mori...
🚨New working paper: Compositional Effects, Internal Migration and Electoral Outcomes
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisciresearch
osf.io/preprints/so...
#polisciresearch
November 13, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Thank you! Bsky thread to the paper: bsky.app/profile/mori...
A key challenge in interpreting the effects of internal out-migration on voting lies in disentangling compositional from contextual effects (equally applying to our descriptive paper). @moritz-marbach.com great new paper offers empirical guidance on approaching this issue. 👇
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
November 12, 2025 at 8:10 AM
A key challenge in interpreting the effects of internal out-migration on voting lies in disentangling compositional from contextual effects (equally applying to our descriptive paper). @moritz-marbach.com great new paper offers empirical guidance on approaching this issue. 👇
osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
I’m happy to see this short paper with @fluegeldo.bsky.social on unexpected hikes in voting costs out in @thejop.bsky.social !
doi.org/10.1086/739405
[1/5]
doi.org/10.1086/739405
[1/5]
November 4, 2025 at 12:38 PM
I’m happy to see this short paper with @fluegeldo.bsky.social on unexpected hikes in voting costs out in @thejop.bsky.social !
doi.org/10.1086/739405
[1/5]
doi.org/10.1086/739405
[1/5]
Just saw this at the bus stop. Guess I am in the treated group?
November 11, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Just saw this at the bus stop. Guess I am in the treated group?
Reposted by Julius Kölzer
🔔 Neues Working Paper 🔔
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻
🆕Working Paper🚨
Training or Retiring? How Labor Markets Adjust to Trade and Technology Shocks📒
w/ A.Bertermann, @dauthecon.bsky.social & @suedekum.bsky.social
🤖 Robots ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬆️early retirement
🌏 Imports ➡️ ⬇️training & ⬆️early r.
🌎 Exports ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬇️e.r.
www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...
🧵1/9
Training or Retiring? How Labor Markets Adjust to Trade and Technology Shocks📒
w/ A.Bertermann, @dauthecon.bsky.social & @suedekum.bsky.social
🤖 Robots ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬆️early retirement
🌏 Imports ➡️ ⬇️training & ⬆️early r.
🌎 Exports ➡️ ⬆️training & ⬇️e.r.
www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo...
🧵1/9
November 11, 2025 at 6:42 AM
🔔 Neues Working Paper 🔔
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻
Die Frage könnte aktueller kaum sein: wie reagieren Beschäftigte auf große Handels- und Technologie-Schocks?
Weiterbildung v.a. bei positiven Schocks, nicht wenn’s schwierig wird. Und viele Ältere verabschieden sich dann in die Frührente.
Hier gibt’s alle Details 👇🏻