Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com
Pinned
Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
· Mar 11
The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections
Most research on the electoral penalty of candidate ideology relies on betweendistrict or longitudinal comparisons, which are confounded by turnout and ballot c
papers.ssrn.com
🚨 New paper (with Kasey Rhee & Nico Studen). We use a new within-precinct design to isolate how ideology affects vote choice holding turnout fixed, analyzing 3.4M precinct observations across state & fed elections (2016-2022).
tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️
tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️
Reposted by Adam Bonica
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 AM
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
November 20, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably.
Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
"Corruption is the Achilles' heel of authoritarians," says @adambonica.bsky.social, explaining why opposing corruption (including the legal kind) should be the center of anti-Trump/Democratic politics. So many insights here. newrepublic.com/article/2030...
Transcript: Anti-Corruption Politics Are The Way to Crush Trumpism
Stanford political scientist Adam Bonica says trying to be more moderate is a dead end for Democrats and the solution is for the party to be seen as fighting against corruption, oligarchy and other il...
newrepublic.com
November 18, 2025 at 3:53 PM
"Corruption is the Achilles' heel of authoritarians," says @adambonica.bsky.social, explaining why opposing corruption (including the legal kind) should be the center of anti-Trump/Democratic politics. So many insights here. newrepublic.com/article/2030...
As Trump again ramps up attacks on judges as biased, consider: his own appointees rule against his admin 49% of the time. Republican appointees 65%. Reporters should ask: If the judiciary is biased, why do the judges he picked keep ruling against him?
November 18, 2025 at 2:41 AM
As Trump again ramps up attacks on judges as biased, consider: his own appointees rule against his admin 49% of the time. Republican appointees 65%. Reporters should ask: If the judiciary is biased, why do the judges he picked keep ruling against him?
Reposted by Adam Bonica
Piece from me and @adambonica.bsky.social in @thenewrepublic.bsky.social today about Gen Z
They have bad taste in music but quite progressive political attitudes (even the men)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
They have bad taste in music but quite progressive political attitudes (even the men)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
The Shocking Truth About Gen Z Voters Is That They’re Pretty Great
Stop panicking: They are the most progressive generation ever, especially on race. If that surprises you, you’ve been listening to the wrong story.
newrepublic.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Piece from me and @adambonica.bsky.social in @thenewrepublic.bsky.social today about Gen Z
They have bad taste in music but quite progressive political attitudes (even the men)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
They have bad taste in music but quite progressive political attitudes (even the men)
newrepublic.com/article/2030...
9/🧵 What does this mean for Democratic strategy? All those debates about choosing between identity politics and economic populism? False premise. Young working-class voters with low racial resentment aren't choosing. They're ready for Medicare for All AND Black Lives Matter. Lean into the tide.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
9/🧵 What does this mean for Democratic strategy? All those debates about choosing between identity politics and economic populism? False premise. Young working-class voters with low racial resentment aren't choosing. They're ready for Medicare for All AND Black Lives Matter. Lean into the tide.
8/🧵 And there's motivated reasoning everywhere. Conservatives want to believe they're winning the youth. Centrist Dems think the party needs to move right. Some progressives fear we're doomed. Consultants want to enter new expensive ad markets. Everyone finds anecdotes confirming their assumptions.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
8/🧵 And there's motivated reasoning everywhere. Conservatives want to believe they're winning the youth. Centrist Dems think the party needs to move right. Some progressives fear we're doomed. Consultants want to enter new expensive ad markets. Everyone finds anecdotes confirming their assumptions.
7/🧵 The loudest voices aren't the most representative. Every generation has extremists, but social media amplifies fringe movements beyond their size. A handful of young white nationalists create viral moments that crowd out broader trends. We mistake the exception for the rule.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
7/🧵 The loudest voices aren't the most representative. Every generation has extremists, but social media amplifies fringe movements beyond their size. A handful of young white nationalists create viral moments that crowd out broader trends. We mistake the exception for the rule.
6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.
5/🧵 Race divides the Democratic Party more than it does Republicans. Young Republicans remain almost as racially resentful as older Republicans. But among Democrats and independents, massive shifts. White Gen Z independents have lower racial resentment than Boomer Democrats.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
5/🧵 Race divides the Democratic Party more than it does Republicans. Young Republicans remain almost as racially resentful as older Republicans. But among Democrats and independents, massive shifts. White Gen Z independents have lower racial resentment than Boomer Democrats.
4/🧵 The generational shift isn't just among white Americans. Young Asian and Hispanic Americans show the same pattern: dramatic declines in racial resentment across education, gender, geography, and religion. This is a broad, multi-racial generational transformation.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
4/🧵 The generational shift isn't just among white Americans. Young Asian and Hispanic Americans show the same pattern: dramatic declines in racial resentment across education, gender, geography, and religion. This is a broad, multi-racial generational transformation.
3/🧵 This generational trend is consistent across every demographic subgroup you can imagine. Non-college Gen Z men? Lower racial resentment than college-educated elder Millennials. The pattern holds across gender, geography, and religion. Young men and women are moving in tandem.
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
3/🧵 This generational trend is consistent across every demographic subgroup you can imagine. Non-college Gen Z men? Lower racial resentment than college-educated elder Millennials. The pattern holds across gender, geography, and religion. Young men and women are moving in tandem.
2/🧵 New piece with @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social in @NewRepublic: We analyzed 60,000+ respondents in the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. Gen Z has the lowest racial resentment of any generation. The generational shift overwhelms the education divide that supposedly defines modern politics.
The Shocking Truth About Gen Z Voters Is That They’re Pretty Great
Stop panicking: They are the most progressive generation ever, especially on race. If that surprises you, you’ve been listening to the wrong story.
newrepublic.com
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
2/🧵 New piece with @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social in @NewRepublic: We analyzed 60,000+ respondents in the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. Gen Z has the lowest racial resentment of any generation. The generational shift overwhelms the education divide that supposedly defines modern politics.
Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵
November 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵
The graft oozing out of every corner of this administration is incredible. According to @propublica.org, a $220 million DHS ad campaign awarded without competitive bidding went to consultants tightly connected to Kristi Noem.
Firm Tied to Kristi Noem Secretly Got Money From $220 Million DHS Ad Contracts
The company is run by the husband of Noem’s chief DHS spokesperson and has personal and business ties to Noem and her aides. DHS invoked the “emergency” at the border to skirt competitive bidding rule...
www.propublica.org
November 14, 2025 at 5:39 PM
The graft oozing out of every corner of this administration is incredible. According to @propublica.org, a $220 million DHS ad campaign awarded without competitive bidding went to consultants tightly connected to Kristi Noem.
Reading through these emails, I’m reminded of the saying: “You can’t con an honest man.” Epstein may not have understood grammar, but he sure understood that.
November 14, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Reading through these emails, I’m reminded of the saying: “You can’t con an honest man.” Epstein may not have understood grammar, but he sure understood that.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
I’ve read a lot of takes on the shutdown cave, but this one is really important
What’s the difference between compromise and capitulation? Compromise trades concessions. Capitulation pays ransom to stop deliberate suffering, and teaches your opponent that coercion works. There are effective responses to coercive bargaining. What we saw was not one of them.
The Compassion Trap: How the Shutdown Weaponized Democratic Values Against Democracy Itself
When Opposition Parties Stop Fighting Because the Cruelty Becomes Unbearable. And Why They Shouldn't.
open.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 1:23 AM
I’ve read a lot of takes on the shutdown cave, but this one is really important
Reposted by Adam Bonica
JUST POSTED: Everyone Is Wrong, our response to the recent series of arguments that – based on the hypothesis that Harris lost and Dems underperformed in 2024 due to (summarizing broadly) voters’ perceptions that Dems are too far left – Democrats need to move right to win.
Everyone Is Wrong
The Way To Win Is Strength, Not Moderation. The 2025 Winners Proved It.
chartingthewayforward.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 10:33 PM
JUST POSTED: Everyone Is Wrong, our response to the recent series of arguments that – based on the hypothesis that Harris lost and Dems underperformed in 2024 due to (summarizing broadly) voters’ perceptions that Dems are too far left – Democrats need to move right to win.
We’ve built two justice systems in the US—one that bends over backward to shield the wealthy and powerful, and another that comes down hard and fast on the poor and marginalized. Trump and Epstein show that it’s easier to squeeze a rich man through the eye of a needle than to see one sent to prison.
The Epstein story gets a something that is tearing at the heart of the electorate: elite impunity. The idea that wealthy and powerful people can do terrible things *at scale* and face no consequences for them. Whatever political party actually stops it could rule the country for a generation.
November 12, 2025 at 11:20 PM
We’ve built two justice systems in the US—one that bends over backward to shield the wealthy and powerful, and another that comes down hard and fast on the poor and marginalized. Trump and Epstein show that it’s easier to squeeze a rich man through the eye of a needle than to see one sent to prison.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
The Epstein story gets a something that is tearing at the heart of the electorate: elite impunity. The idea that wealthy and powerful people can do terrible things *at scale* and face no consequences for them. Whatever political party actually stops it could rule the country for a generation.
November 12, 2025 at 10:23 PM
The Epstein story gets a something that is tearing at the heart of the electorate: elite impunity. The idea that wealthy and powerful people can do terrible things *at scale* and face no consequences for them. Whatever political party actually stops it could rule the country for a generation.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
"The authoritarian doesn’t need to win arguments or offer genuine compromise. They need only inflict enough pain that resistance becomes morally unbearable... It’s a nasty tactic but an effective one. Create unbearable suffering...Then offer relief in exchange for political surrender."
What’s the difference between compromise and capitulation? Compromise trades concessions. Capitulation pays ransom to stop deliberate suffering, and teaches your opponent that coercion works. There are effective responses to coercive bargaining. What we saw was not one of them.
The Compassion Trap: How the Shutdown Weaponized Democratic Values Against Democracy Itself
When Opposition Parties Stop Fighting Because the Cruelty Becomes Unbearable. And Why They Shouldn't.
open.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 6:44 PM
"The authoritarian doesn’t need to win arguments or offer genuine compromise. They need only inflict enough pain that resistance becomes morally unbearable... It’s a nasty tactic but an effective one. Create unbearable suffering...Then offer relief in exchange for political surrender."
Reposted by Adam Bonica
Said Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) used his massive wealth to buy Paramount, turn CBS from a news org into right-wing propaganda, and get a big stake in TikTok USA. Plus bid for Warner Brothers - Discovery, which owns a lot of media properties (eg CNN), presumably to make it propaganda too.
Kind of wild that while food assistance was withheld from millions of families, one Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) saw his net worth grow more this year than the entire SNAP budget. And the YTD gains of the other four richest men would’ve fully covered salaries for all 2M federal employees.
November 12, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Said Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) used his massive wealth to buy Paramount, turn CBS from a news org into right-wing propaganda, and get a big stake in TikTok USA. Plus bid for Warner Brothers - Discovery, which owns a lot of media properties (eg CNN), presumably to make it propaganda too.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
"The Democratic base understands what’s at stake. Grassroots activists, organizers, and voters have shown they’re willing to fight. ... Until Democratic leaders can be made to fear cowardice more than they fear Republicans, the pattern will continue."
Every line in this piece is worth reading 👇
Every line in this piece is worth reading 👇
November 11, 2025 at 11:14 PM
"The Democratic base understands what’s at stake. Grassroots activists, organizers, and voters have shown they’re willing to fight. ... Until Democratic leaders can be made to fear cowardice more than they fear Republicans, the pattern will continue."
Every line in this piece is worth reading 👇
Every line in this piece is worth reading 👇
Reposted by Adam Bonica
Best assessment I have seen yet.
What’s the difference between compromise and capitulation? Compromise trades concessions. Capitulation pays ransom to stop deliberate suffering, and teaches your opponent that coercion works. There are effective responses to coercive bargaining. What we saw was not one of them.
The Compassion Trap: How the Shutdown Weaponized Democratic Values Against Democracy Itself
When Opposition Parties Stop Fighting Because the Cruelty Becomes Unbearable. And Why They Shouldn't.
open.substack.com
November 11, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Best assessment I have seen yet.
Kind of wild that while food assistance was withheld from millions of families, one Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) saw his net worth grow more this year than the entire SNAP budget. And the YTD gains of the other four richest men would’ve fully covered salaries for all 2M federal employees.
November 11, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Kind of wild that while food assistance was withheld from millions of families, one Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) saw his net worth grow more this year than the entire SNAP budget. And the YTD gains of the other four richest men would’ve fully covered salaries for all 2M federal employees.