Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com
Pinned
Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
· Dec 6
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Epstiarchy (n.) — a corrupt system of rule in which oligarchs maintain power through extreme wealth, mutual protection, and the capture or abuse of legal and political institutions; marked by egregious crimes that are widely known yet go unpunished.
Syn: The Epstein Class; Oligarchs of the Island
Syn: The Epstein Class; Oligarchs of the Island
February 8, 2026 at 11:51 PM
Epstiarchy (n.) — a corrupt system of rule in which oligarchs maintain power through extreme wealth, mutual protection, and the capture or abuse of legal and political institutions; marked by egregious crimes that are widely known yet go unpunished.
Syn: The Epstein Class; Oligarchs of the Island
Syn: The Epstein Class; Oligarchs of the Island
Reposted by Adam Bonica
“The claim that Republican anti-trans ads and rhetoric are winning over Democratic and independent voters is simply not true. Moreover, the assumption that abandoning trans rights will have no negative ramifications for Democrats is mistaken.” @juliaserano.bsky.social
Trans rights aren’t tanking the Democrats.
Julia Serano responds in a forum on “How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism.”
www.bostonreview.net
February 7, 2026 at 6:45 PM
“The claim that Republican anti-trans ads and rhetoric are winning over Democratic and independent voters is simply not true. Moreover, the assumption that abandoning trans rights will have no negative ramifications for Democrats is mistaken.” @juliaserano.bsky.social
Reposted by Adam Bonica
This part of our response essay is where I'm at. Boiling down all of politics to electoralism has been absolutely terrible for resisting rising authoritarianism.
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
February 3, 2026 at 11:28 PM
This part of our response essay is where I'm at. Boiling down all of politics to electoralism has been absolutely terrible for resisting rising authoritarianism.
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
Please read the article you are citing. I reported the 1.4pt as the Times’ result (not ours) from their own data, then showed it would have flipped zero seats. The follow-up article shows the 1.4pt effect is clearly a statistical artifact.
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com
February 4, 2026 at 1:58 AM
Please read the article you are citing. I reported the 1.4pt as the Times’ result (not ours) from their own data, then showed it would have flipped zero seats. The follow-up article shows the 1.4pt effect is clearly a statistical artifact.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
very excited to have my response included in the latest Boston Review forum against Democratic moderation! here it is, my best argument for why Dems shouldn't "moderate" on transgender rights & LGBTQ issues more generally (as they are inextricably linked): www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
Trans rights aren’t tanking the Democrats.
Julia Serano responds in a forum on “How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism.”
www.bostonreview.net
February 3, 2026 at 4:12 PM
very excited to have my response included in the latest Boston Review forum against Democratic moderation! here it is, my best argument for why Dems shouldn't "moderate" on transgender rights & LGBTQ issues more generally (as they are inextricably linked): www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
Reposted by Adam Bonica
anyhoo, it seems that we're doomed to run through this cycle once every few months until the end of time
February 3, 2026 at 6:19 PM
anyhoo, it seems that we're doomed to run through this cycle once every few months until the end of time
“We have been asked to call the centrist response to this presidency “moderation.” Recent events make it clear we should recognize it as appeasement.”
Excellent piece by @rauchway.bsky.social about the importance of building an enduring coalition capable of recovery and reform.
Excellent piece by @rauchway.bsky.social about the importance of building an enduring coalition capable of recovery and reform.
We need reconstruction, not restoration—as FDR knew.
Eric Rauchway responds in a forum on “How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism.”
www.bostonreview.net
February 3, 2026 at 9:31 PM
“We have been asked to call the centrist response to this presidency “moderation.” Recent events make it clear we should recognize it as appeasement.”
Excellent piece by @rauchway.bsky.social about the importance of building an enduring coalition capable of recovery and reform.
Excellent piece by @rauchway.bsky.social about the importance of building an enduring coalition capable of recovery and reform.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
🔥 from @amandalitman.bsky.social
Candidate recruitment and party management is the harder, more crucial work than poll-following
Candidate recruitment and party management is the harder, more crucial work than poll-following
February 3, 2026 at 4:15 PM
🔥 from @amandalitman.bsky.social
Candidate recruitment and party management is the harder, more crucial work than poll-following
Candidate recruitment and party management is the harder, more crucial work than poll-following
Reposted by Adam Bonica
We have a Boston Review Forum out today on the Democratic Party in a time of authoritarianism
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
February 3, 2026 at 3:50 PM
We have a Boston Review Forum out today on the Democratic Party in a time of authoritarianism
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
Reposted by Adam Bonica
when you're to the right of jim rogan
January 14, 2026 at 6:47 PM
when you're to the right of jim rogan
Reposted by Adam Bonica
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers
“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”
(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”
(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
January 14, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers
“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”
(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”
(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
Reposted by Adam Bonica
In our current turbulent situation, Perkins is a brilliant lighthouse to lead us away from the rocks and sandbars.
She is one of very few historic persons for who my respect grows with everything new I learn about her.
The thought of her helps keep my hope for the future alive.
She is one of very few historic persons for who my respect grows with everything new I learn about her.
The thought of her helps keep my hope for the future alive.
January 14, 2026 at 5:47 PM
In our current turbulent situation, Perkins is a brilliant lighthouse to lead us away from the rocks and sandbars.
She is one of very few historic persons for who my respect grows with everything new I learn about her.
The thought of her helps keep my hope for the future alive.
She is one of very few historic persons for who my respect grows with everything new I learn about her.
The thought of her helps keep my hope for the future alive.
Reposted by Adam Bonica
I can’t believe that memo. Searchlight Institute is way behind the times. Abolish ICE is the most popular position now. Their attempt to compare it to defund the police, which never even reached 30% support, is misleading and insane
January 14, 2026 at 4:41 PM
I can’t believe that memo. Searchlight Institute is way behind the times. Abolish ICE is the most popular position now. Their attempt to compare it to defund the police, which never even reached 30% support, is misleading and insane
Reposted by Adam Bonica
I'm currently reading Kristin Downey's excellent The Woman Behind the New Deal. At the head of the Labor Dept (where immigration was housed) Perkins was a strong voice for Jewish refugees, creatively navigating and subverting the limits imposed by a strongly anti-refugee Congress and State Dept ...
1/ I recently wrote about Frances Perkins—FDR’s Labor Secretary and first woman cabinet member. She is best known as the architect of the New Deal but she had a lesser-known achievement:
She dismantled her era’s version of ICE.🧵
She dismantled her era’s version of ICE.🧵
January 14, 2026 at 5:37 AM
I'm currently reading Kristin Downey's excellent The Woman Behind the New Deal. At the head of the Labor Dept (where immigration was housed) Perkins was a strong voice for Jewish refugees, creatively navigating and subverting the limits imposed by a strongly anti-refugee Congress and State Dept ...
Reposted by Adam Bonica
In 1939, when Sec. of Labor Frances Perkins pushed back on pressure to ideologically deport Australian-born labor leader Harry Bridges, she faced impeachment by Congress.
Perkins insisted on upholding the rule of law & ensuring it was appropriately applied to Bridges.🗃️
Ch. 4 in "Threat of Dissent"
Perkins insisted on upholding the rule of law & ensuring it was appropriately applied to Bridges.🗃️
Ch. 4 in "Threat of Dissent"
April 18, 2025 at 2:41 PM
In 1939, when Sec. of Labor Frances Perkins pushed back on pressure to ideologically deport Australian-born labor leader Harry Bridges, she faced impeachment by Congress.
Perkins insisted on upholding the rule of law & ensuring it was appropriately applied to Bridges.🗃️
Ch. 4 in "Threat of Dissent"
Perkins insisted on upholding the rule of law & ensuring it was appropriately applied to Bridges.🗃️
Ch. 4 in "Threat of Dissent"
11/ For an excellent history of Perkins immigration reforms, see "Labor Secretary Frances Perkins Reorganizes Her Department's Immigration Enforcement Functions, 1933–1940: 'Going against the Grain'" by Neil Hernandez:
muse.jhu.edu/article/8759...
muse.jhu.edu/article/8759...
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
11/ For an excellent history of Perkins immigration reforms, see "Labor Secretary Frances Perkins Reorganizes Her Department's Immigration Enforcement Functions, 1933–1940: 'Going against the Grain'" by Neil Hernandez:
muse.jhu.edu/article/8759...
muse.jhu.edu/article/8759...
10/ Abolishing ICE is much harder today than Section 24 was then. ICE is statutory and an entrenched agency. But Perkins reminds us they are policy choices. They’ve been built, dismantled, and rebuilt before. Immigration enforcement is policy. And policy can be changed.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
10/ Abolishing ICE is much harder today than Section 24 was then. ICE is statutory and an entrenched agency. But Perkins reminds us they are policy choices. They’ve been built, dismantled, and rebuilt before. Immigration enforcement is policy. And policy can be changed.
9/ The police model eventually returned. In 1940, FDR moved the INS to the DOJ citing national security reasons as WW2 raged. In 2002, the INS was dissolved entirely to create CBP and ICE, placing immigration enforcement under DHS.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
9/ The police model eventually returned. In 1940, FDR moved the INS to the DOJ citing national security reasons as WW2 raged. In 2002, the INS was dissolved entirely to create CBP and ICE, placing immigration enforcement under DHS.
8/ Unsurprising Perkins faced political backlash. In 1939, anti-immigrant conservatives unsuccessfully tried to impeach Perkins, accusing her of failing to enforce deportation laws.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
8/ Unsurprising Perkins faced political backlash. In 1939, anti-immigrant conservatives unsuccessfully tried to impeach Perkins, accusing her of failing to enforce deportation laws.
7/ While the State Department erected “paper walls” to block Jewish refugees, Perkins used her authority to issue Rule 25(A) permits which helped thousands of German Jews escape Nazi Germany.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
7/ While the State Department erected “paper walls” to block Jewish refugees, Perkins used her authority to issue Rule 25(A) permits which helped thousands of German Jews escape Nazi Germany.
6/ Crucially, she didn’t act in a vacuum. Perkins was empowered by a surging labor movement. That labor power gave her the political capital to humanize the immigration process.
A good example of a truism I tell my students: Heroes don’t create movements. Movements create heroes.
A good example of a truism I tell my students: Heroes don’t create movements. Movements create heroes.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
6/ Crucially, she didn’t act in a vacuum. Perkins was empowered by a surging labor movement. That labor power gave her the political capital to humanize the immigration process.
A good example of a truism I tell my students: Heroes don’t create movements. Movements create heroes.
A good example of a truism I tell my students: Heroes don’t create movements. Movements create heroes.
5/ She refused to treat immigrants as economic scapegoats. She rejected the idea that deportation was a valid tool for unemployment relief, insisting on due process over police terror.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
5/ She refused to treat immigrants as economic scapegoats. She rejected the idea that deportation was a valid tool for unemployment relief, insisting on due process over police terror.
4/ She then merged immigration bureaus into the INS, an agency focused on processing adjudication, not raids. Her goal, she said, was to proceed “with scrupulous fairness.” Warrantless arrests ended and for a time immigration was treated as a social/administrative issue rather than law enforcement.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
4/ She then merged immigration bureaus into the INS, an agency focused on processing adjudication, not raids. Her goal, she said, was to proceed “with scrupulous fairness.” Warrantless arrests ended and for a time immigration was treated as a social/administrative issue rather than law enforcement.
3/ Perkins couldn’t simply fire the Section 24 officers due to civil service protections. So she found a bureaucratic loophole: She let their funding appropriation lapse. Once the money was gone, she terminated the squad due to insufficient funds.
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
3/ Perkins couldn’t simply fire the Section 24 officers due to civil service protections. So she found a bureaucratic loophole: She let their funding appropriation lapse. Once the money was gone, she terminated the squad due to insufficient funds.
2/ In 1933, Perkins found a rogue unit in her Dept known as the “Section 24” squad. The squad was known for aggressive, extra-legal tactics, including illegal detainment and intimidation. Perkins was horrified, calling the squad “disorderly; uncontrollable; unlawful.”
January 14, 2026 at 3:43 AM
2/ In 1933, Perkins found a rogue unit in her Dept known as the “Section 24” squad. The squad was known for aggressive, extra-legal tactics, including illegal detainment and intimidation. Perkins was horrified, calling the squad “disorderly; uncontrollable; unlawful.”