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adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
29K followers 1.2K following 840 posts

Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com .. more

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adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Dec 6
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 2d
Epstiarchy (n.) — a corrupt system of rule in which oligarchs maintain power through extreme wealth, mutual protection, and the capture or abuse of legal and political institutions; marked by egregious crimes that are widely known yet go unpunished.

Syn: The Epstein Class; Oligarchs of the Island

Reposted by Adam Bonica

bostonreview.bsky.social
Boston Review @bostonreview.bsky.social · 3d
“The claim that Republican anti-trans ads and rhetoric are winning over Democratic and independent voters is simply not true. Moreover, the assumption that abandoning trans rights will have no negative ramifications for Democrats is mistaken.” @juliaserano.bsky.social
Trans rights aren’t tanking the Democrats.
Julia Serano responds in a forum on “How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism.”
www.bostonreview.net

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 6d
Please read the article you are citing. I reported the 1.4pt as the Times’ result (not ours) from their own data, then showed it would have flipped zero seats. The follow-up article shows the 1.4pt effect is clearly a statistical artifact.
The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion
After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.
open.substack.com

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Will Jennings, Patrick Dunleavy , and 6 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 7d
This part of our response essay is where I'm at. Boiling down all of politics to electoralism has been absolutely terrible for resisting rising authoritarianism.

www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
A final but especially important reason that popularism has put the United States at greater, not lower, risk of authoritarianism is the Democratic Party’s overly cautious use of institutional authority and political power beyond elections. Popularism doesn’t just urge candidates to check the polls before making a campaign decision; by defining politics down to poll-watching, it trains leaders to check with polls before governing—any use of their legislative and administrative power. Successful opposition parties in authoritarian environments around the world don’t do this: they engage in politics in order to wield power, not just to win or maintain it. But in the United States, the opposition party sees elections as its only tool, even as the regime repeatedly and brazenly threatens electoral integrity. The implicit pitch is “at least if you vote for us, you keep the right from governing.” Examples of Democratic squeamishness about power abound. The Democrats have just now begun to engage in partisan gerrymandering, fifteen years after Republicans used it to tremendous gain. And Democratic politicians who call Trump a dictator have voted for nearly all of his nominees in the Senate. In this, Democratic leaders are the ultimate popularists—waiting to use their institutional power until it is overwhelmingly clear that public opinion is on their side. The results have been disastrous. Most consequential was the hesitancy of the Department of Justice under Merrick Garland to swiftly and aggressively prosecute Trump for the coup attempt on January 6, 2021. That’s exactly the opposite of what Lula’s government has done to Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil after Bolsonaro’s own coup attempt. As seen across more than two dozen other countries that convicted or banned from office national leaders for constitutional violations and crimes since 2010, this is not an impossible task.

Reposted by Sanford F. Schram, Nathan P. Kalmoe

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 7d
“We have been asked to call the centrist response to this presidency “moderation.” Recent events make it clear we should recognize it as appeasement.”

Excellent piece by @rauchway.bsky.social about the importance of building an enduring coalition capable of recovery and reform.
We need reconstruction, not restoration—as FDR knew.
Eric Rauchway responds in a forum on “How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism.”
www.bostonreview.net

Reposted by Adam Bonica

markjrieke.bsky.social
Mark Rieke @markjrieke.bsky.social · 7d
anyhoo, it seems that we're doomed to run through this cycle once every few months until the end of time

Reposted by Adam Bonica, Nathan P. Kalmoe

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 7d
🔥 from @amandalitman.bsky.social

Candidate recruitment and party management is the harder, more crucial work than poll-following
The point is that imperatives saying Democrats should do X, Y, or Z are empty demands if they don't clearly specify actors who can pick up the work. Filling that in would clear up some basic confusions. Should voters in New York City really pick their mayor based on what a mythical swing voter in the Midwest might think of the party? Should Californians choose a governor or Illinoisans a member of Congress based on who will help us win a Senate seat in Iowa? Some in this debate might say, "Yes, that's exactly what should happen," but that's not how most voters see their role in the process, so good luck convincing them otherwise. Finally, perhaps the biggest reason I find this argument exhausting is that most of the people having it have never tried to convince someone to run for office, and boy does it show. There are very few people eager to get in the arena only to run on a platform of "better things aren't possible." As cofounder and president of Run for Something, I've spent most of the last decade building the largest candidate pipeline in politics - we run and cultivate a list of a quarter million young people interested in running for office. Our focus is local first -time candidate recruitment and support; we are the top of funnel for the democratic process.

Reposted by Adam Bonica, Adrian Daub

juliaserano.bsky.social
Julia Serano @juliaserano.bsky.social · 7d
very excited to have my response included in the latest Boston Review forum against Democratic moderation! here it is, my best argument for why Dems shouldn't "moderate" on transgender rights & LGBTQ issues more generally (as they are inextricably linked): www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
Trans rights aren’t tanking the Democrats.
Julia Serano responds in a forum on “How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism.”
www.bostonreview.net

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Lisa W. Fazio, Ben H. Ansell , and 6 more

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 7d
We have a Boston Review Forum out today on the Democratic Party in a time of authoritarianism

www.bostonreview.net/forum/how-no...
Senator Chuck Schumer conducts a news conference in the U.S. Capitol in May 2025. Image: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images FORUM How Not to Defeat Authoritarianism Moderation used to help Democrats win, but its advantages now have been greatly exaggerated. Adam Bonica, Jake Grumbach With responses from → Cori Bush, Amanda Litman, Matthew Yglesias, G. Elliott Morris, Julia Serano, Eric Rauchway, Suzanne Mettler & Trevor E. Brown, Thomas Ferguson, Timothy Shenk, Jared Abbott & Milan Loewer, Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, Lily Geismer, Danielle Wiggins, William A. Galston, and Henry Burke

Reposted by Adam Bonica

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 27d
when you're to the right of jim rogan

Reposted by Adam Bonica

jnshaumeyer.bsky.social
Jeff Shaumeyer 🌈 @jnshaumeyer.bsky.social · 27d
In our current turbulent situation, Perkins is a brilliant lighthouse to lead us away from the rocks and sandbars.

She is one of very few historic persons for who my respect grows with everything new I learn about her.

The thought of her helps keep my hope for the future alive.

Reposted by Adam Bonica, Nathan P. Kalmoe

jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 27d
I can’t believe that memo. Searchlight Institute is way behind the times. Abolish ICE is the most popular position now. Their attempt to compare it to defund the police, which never even reached 30% support, is misleading and insane
The Economist/YouGov Poll January 9 - 12, 2026 - 1602 U.S. Adult Citizens 47. Support for Abolishing ICE Would you support or oppose abolishing ICE? Sex Race Age Income Total Male Female White Black Hispanic 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ <50K 50-100K 100k + Strongly support 35% 31% 39% 29% 51% 47% 44% 33% 30% 37% 36% 36% 35% Somewhat support 10% 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 9% 10% 12% 10% Support 46% 41% 50% 39% 62% 58% 54% 42% 42% 46% 45% 48% 45% Somewhat oppose 11% 12% 10% 13% 8% 7% 7% 13% 13% 10% 10% 12% 11% Strongly oppose 31% 36% 27% 38% 11% 24% 26% 25% 35% 38% 28% 32% 36% Oppose 43% 48% 37% 51% 18% 31% 33% 39% 48% 47% 38% 44% 47% Not sure 12% 11% 13% 10% 20% 11% 13% 19% 10% 7% 16% 9% 8% Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 101% 100% 101% 100% 99% 101% 100% 101% 100% Unweighted N (1,599) (712) (887) (1,065) (192) (230) (330) (421) (493) (355) (590) (480) (374) 2024 Vote Reg Ideology Party ID Party ID with Leaners Total Harris Trump Voters Lib Mod Con Dem Ind Rep Lean D Ind Lean R Strongly support 35% 63% 9% 36% 71% 30% 8% 63% 36% 8% 65% 29% 8% Somewhat support 10% 17% 6% 11% 13% 14% 3% 14% 11% 6% 15% 10% 6% Support 46% 80% 15% 47% 83% 45% 11% 77% 47% 14% 80% 39% 14% Somewhat oppose 11% 9% 13% 11% 8% 15% 11% 8% 12% 13% 7% 13% 14% Strongly oppose 31% 3% 67% 34% 4% 20% 72% 4% 23% 66% 4% 20% 66% Oppose 43% 12% 80%% 45% 12% 35% 82% 12% 35% 79% 11% 33% 80% Not sure 12% 8% 5% 8% 5% 20% 6% 11% 18% 6% 9% 28% 6% Totals 99% 100% 100% 100% 101% 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% (1,599) (537) (1,434) (530) (467) (469) (432) Unweighted N (658) (529) (638) YouGov (710) (317) (572)

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Stephan Lewandowsky, Brendan Nyhan , and 10 more

andrew.heiss.phd
Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 27d
Perennial reminder of this excellent paper about how secret police forces are swamped with underachievers

“We don’t want clever people. We want mediocrities.”

(Ungated summary here ajps.org/2019/10/08/w...)
Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations: Evidence from Autocratic Argentina Adam Scharpf Christian Gläßel Abstract: Autocrats depend on a capable secret police. Anecdotal evidence, however, often characterizes agents as surprisingly mediocre in skill and intellect. To explain this puzzle, this article focuses on the career incentives underachieving individuals face in the regular security apparatus. Low-performing officials in hierarchical organizations have little chance of being promoted or filling lucrative positions. To salvage their careers, these officials are willing to undertake burdensome secret police work. Using data on all 4,287 officers who served in autocratic Argentina (1975-83), we study biographic differences between secret police agents and the entire recruitment pool. We find that low-achieving officers were stuck within the regime hierarchy, threatened with discharge, and thus more likely to join the secret police for future benefits. The study demonstrates how state bureaucracies breed mundane career concerns that produce willing enforcers and cement violent regimes. This has implications for the understanding of autocratic consolidation and democratic breakdown.

Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
11/ For an excellent history of Perkins immigration reforms, see "Labor Secretary Frances Perkins Reorganizes Her Department's Immigration Enforcement Functions, 1933–1940: 'Going against the Grain'" by Neil Hernandez:

muse.jhu.edu/article/8759...

Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
10/ Abolishing ICE is much harder today than Section 24 was then. ICE is statutory and an entrenched agency. But Perkins reminds us they are policy choices. They’ve been built, dismantled, and rebuilt before. Immigration enforcement is policy. And policy can be changed.

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
9/ The police model eventually returned. In 1940, FDR moved the INS to the DOJ citing national security reasons as WW2 raged. In 2002, the INS was dissolved entirely to create CBP and ICE, placing immigration enforcement under DHS.

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
8/ Unsurprising Perkins faced political backlash. In 1939, anti-immigrant conservatives unsuccessfully tried to impeach Perkins, accusing her of failing to enforce deportation laws.

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
7/ While the State Department erected “paper walls” to block Jewish refugees, Perkins used her authority to issue Rule 25(A) permits which helped thousands of German Jews escape Nazi Germany.

Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
6/ Crucially, she didn’t act in a vacuum. Perkins was empowered by a surging labor movement. That labor power gave her the political capital to humanize the immigration process.

A good example of a truism I tell my students: Heroes don’t create movements. Movements create heroes.

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
5/ She refused to treat immigrants as economic scapegoats. She rejected the idea that deportation was a valid tool for unemployment relief, insisting on due process over police terror.

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
4/ She then merged immigration bureaus into the INS, an agency focused on processing adjudication, not raids. Her goal, she said, was to proceed “with scrupulous fairness.” Warrantless arrests ended and for a time immigration was treated as a social/administrative issue rather than law enforcement.

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
3/ Perkins couldn’t simply fire the Section 24 officers due to civil service protections. So she found a bureaucratic loophole: She let their funding appropriation lapse. Once the money was gone, she terminated the squad due to insufficient funds.

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
2/ In 1933, Perkins found a rogue unit in her Dept known as the “Section 24” squad. The squad was known for aggressive, extra-legal tactics, including illegal detainment and intimidation. Perkins was horrified, calling the squad “disorderly; uncontrollable; unlawful.”

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Anna O. Law, Lisa W. Fazio , and 11 more

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 27d
1/ I recently wrote about Frances Perkins—FDR’s Labor Secretary and first woman cabinet member. She is best known as the architect of the New Deal but she had a lesser-known achievement:

She dismantled her era’s version of ICE.🧵
President Roosevelt signing the Social Security Act into law on August 14, 1935, with Perkins among those witnessing the signing (third from right) https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/28/Signing_Of_The_Social_Security_Act.jpg

Reposted by Adam Bonica

ryanlcooper.com
ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 28d
this is superb data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-wall-l...
The Wall Looks Permanent Until It Falls
On the optimism of preparation in a time of democratic decay.
data4democracy.substack.com

Reposted by Adam Bonica, David R. Miller

brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 28d
"Hats off"
atrupar.com Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 28d
Bovino on the officer who killed Renee Good: "Hats off to that ICE agent"

Reposted by Michael A. Clemens, Adam Bonica

jayrosen.bsky.social
Jay Rosen @jayrosen.bsky.social · 29d
"The wall looks permanent until the day it comes down."

data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-wall-l...

Several people I know have used the word "beautiful" for this piece, and that's exactly right. A beautifully phrased essay on the bind we're in— until we aren't.

Recommended, in an extreme way.
The Wall Looks Permanent Until It Falls
On the optimism of preparation in a time of democratic decay.
data4democracy.substack.com

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 29d
Here’s the full piece on why I’m optimistic, even in dark times:

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...
The Wall Looks Permanent Until It Falls
On the optimism of preparation in a time of democratic decay.
open.substack.com

Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 29d
This looks like an indictment. It is. But I see it as a reason for optimism.

We don’t need to be exceptional to transform Americans' lives. We need to become average. The solutions exist. We see them working. We have to choose them. And that means fixing our democracy so that it delivers.

Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

adambonica.bsky.social
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 29d
Institutions and justice: 51 million more Americans voting. Elections would cost $14.9 billion less per cycle. Our elected leaders would be 12 years younger. 60 more women in Congress. 1.4 million fewer Americans would be behind bars. Per capita carbon emissions would be cut nearly in half.
Screenshot of a data visualization section titled “Institutions & Justice,” showing how outcomes would change if the United States matched the OECD average. Eight cards compare U.S. figures to peer democracies. They show: 51 million more Americans participating in elections (U.S. voting-age participation about 51% vs OECD 70%); $14.9 billion less spent per election cycle, with U.S. elections costing far more per vote than peers; public trust in government increasing by 15 percentage points; 60 more women serving in Congress, making it more representative of the population; the average age of elected leaders falling by 12 years (U.S. average about 59 vs OECD 47); 1.4 million fewer Americans behind bars; $300 billion less in annual litigation costs; and per capita carbon emissions reduced by 47%, nearly cut in half. Each card lists the U.S. value alongside the OECD average.