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Adam Bonica

@adambonica.bsky.social

25K followers 1.2K following 700 posts

Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com .. more

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · Mar 11

🚨 New paper (with Kasey Rhee & Nico Studen). We use a new within-precinct design to isolate how ideology affects vote choice holding turnout fixed, analyzing 3.4M precinct observations across state & fed elections (2016-2022).

tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️

The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections

Most research on the electoral penalty of candidate ideology relies on betweendistrict or longitudinal comparisons, which are confounded by turnout and ballot c

papers.ssrn.com

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 1d

This is why Dems’ legalistic framing—like at Bondi’s hearings—can feel so inadequate. “Show me the statute” is a trap when SCOTUS can rewrite law. More effective opposition comes through the language of morality and documented harm—not legal claims that can be swept away with a 6-3 vote.

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Richard Price, Janet Murray , and 1 more Brendan Nyhan, Richard Price, Janet Murray, Daxton R. Stewart

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 1d

As the Supreme Court term begins, keep this framework in mind: Autocratic Legalism.

Instead of “rule of law” (law constrains the power), we get “rule by law” (law as a weapon for power).

Authoritarians usually have to install allies. Trump started his second term with that step already complete.

The only effective opposition is through the language of morality and documented harm—not legal technicalities that can be swept away with a 6–3 vote.” The text is centered on a neutral background, with “morality” and “documented harm” slightly emphasized to underscore the moral and empirical contrast with “legal technicalities.”

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Reposted by John F. McCarthy, Adam Bonica, John Collins , and 6 more John F. McCarthy, Adam Bonica, John Collins, Charles W. Smith, Michael Zimmer, Robert B. Reich, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Dan Immergluck, Timothy D. McBride

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 2d

Bondi to Blumenthal: "You lied. How dare you? I'm a career prosecutor. Don't you ever challenge my integrity. Do not question my ability to be fair and impartial."

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 3d

During a shutdown, the federal government can deploy troops to invade US cities but can’t send WIC funds to states to feed infants and children. Speaks volumes about how the rules around shutdowns systematically serve GOP priorities while harming everyone else.

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Reposted by Adam Bonica

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 5d

Student protests are basically a necessary condition for any democracy movement

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

Student-Led Pro-Democracy Protests and Their Impact Worldwide (1955-2025)
Outcome
• Successful Transition
• Long Term Impact|
• Partial Gains|
• No Immediate Gains
Hungary Uprising' °

1960
1970
Poland Protests' ® 'France May '68
° South Korea April Revolution
Mexico Movement, a, Yugoslavia Protests
Greece Polytechnic, o
1980
Poland Solidarity, O
" 'South Africa Soweto
Philippines People Power,®
Brazil Diretas Já
South Korea June Movement
Burma 8/8/88 China Tiananmen
1990
Vepal Jana Andolan|
Indonesia Reformasi, o
2000
zechoslovakia Velvet- & ,East Germany Participation
Taiwan Wild Lily
Serbia Otpor, & ran University Protests
o Ukraine Orange Revolution
Venezuela Movement, o
2010
long Kong Umbrella
Tunisia Participation
gypt Tahrir, & Chile Winter urkey Gezi Park, g, Ukraine Euremaidan
•,Ethiopia Protests
2020
Myanmar Protests' 8, Iran Life Freedom
Bangladesh July Revolution' & Serbia
Algeria Hirak' 8 Thailand Students
Note: This timeline illustrates major student-led protests from 1955 to 2025, highlighting their outcomes in terms of political and social change. Outcomes are categorized as 'Successful Transition' (leading directly to significant reforms or government changes), 'Long Term Impact' (initially limited but influential over time),
'Partial Gains' (achieving some concessions or moderate changes), and 'No Immediate Gains' (little to no short-term change despite protest efforts).

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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Adrian Daub, Nathan P. Kalmoe , and 1 more Adam Bonica, Adrian Daub, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Dan Immergluck

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 5d

Pretty incredible own goal by liberal institutions and many Democratic electeds to crush the exact type of protests in 2024 that would’ve been the most effective way to slow or stop ICE incursions into American cities in 2025

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Reposted by Adam Bonica

Protect Democracy @protectdemocracy.org · 5d

The Trump administration's latest attack on universities involves coercing them into signing ideological pledges in exchange for funding preference. Earlier we wrote about why there's no negotiating with an annihilation attempt, universities standing firm against attacks is the only option.

Universities have no choice

There is no negotiating with an annihilation attempt

www.ifyoucankeepit.org

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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Mark Rice

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 7d

The shutdown as ideological targeting.
If agencies fire non-essential employees as Vought wants, the losses fall more on liberal agencies, even though such agencies already saw more cuts during previous Trump layoffs.
H/T @adambonica.bsky.social
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/shutdown-h...

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Reposted by Adam Bonica

Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 7d

"I don’t think the Democratic Party is at its best when it tries to compete with the Republican Party for the bottom of the barrel. I have yet to talk to a black person who has said to me, “You know what I want the Democratic Party to do—abandon issues of race,” says @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social.

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Reposted by Adam Bonica

Jennifer N. Victor @jenvictor.bsky.social · 7d

Shot/chaser

@adambonica.bsky.social, yesterday, "shutdowns favor GOP-leaning agencies and harm liberal ones." substack.com/home/post/p-...

Trump, today, "The shutdown gives me the opportunity to inflict devastating harm on my political adversaries' government-aligned interests [paraphrased]."

a graph showing liberal leaning agencies have more furloughed employees than conservative leaning ones.

a Truth Social Post from the president: "I have a meeting today with russ Vought, he of Project 2025 fame, to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he commends to be cut, and whether or not those cuts will be temporary or permanent. I can't believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity. They are not stupid people, so maybe this is their way to wanting to, quietly and quickly, make america great again. President DJT"

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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 7d

Updated paper with @adambonica.bsky.social w/ many more measures of candidate ideology

Mass politics is volatile & uncertain these days, and you should take very confident pundit/consultant claims about What Candidates Should Do™ with a big grain of salt

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/mjih7...

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 8d

It’s not just other countries that don’t shut down the government over disagreement over the budget, tons of states have rules that prevent shut downs, as well.

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Reposted by Michael Jones‐Correa

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 8d

You know what would be great? If Democrats came out and said that the next time they’re in power, they’ll change the rules and end shutdowns for good. And then actually did it.

Beyond being dumb and unnecessary, it’s flat-out disrespectful to keep treating federal employees like bargaining chips.

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Reposted by Jan W. Mueller, Adam Bonica

Cas Ⓜ️udde @casmudde.bsky.social · 8d

"Until we confront the institutional rules themselves—not just the politicians wielding them—we’ll remain trapped in this cycle of manufactured crisis."

@adambonica.bsky.social provides a great public service with his exceptionally insightful data-driven analyses of U.S. politics.

When the Rules Incentivize Chaos: America's Shutdown Problem Runs Deeper Than Partisan Politics

Data shows how government shutdowns disproportionally affect agencies that align with Democratic priorities while agencies aligned with GOP priorities remain largely untouched.

data4democracy.substack.com

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 8d

For more on why shutdowns tilt the playing field and the institutional history behind them, read my full piece:
open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

When the Rules Incentivize Chaos: America's Shutdown Problem Runs Deeper Than Partisan Politics

Data shows how government shutdowns disproportionally affect agencies that align with Democratic priorities while agencies aligned with GOP priorities remain largely untouched.

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Anna O. Law, Fabián Muniesa, Brian Keegan

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 8d

Shutdown rules aren’t neutral. They favor agencies aligned with GOP priorities, while those aligned with Democratic priorities bear the brunt of furloughs.

Furlough Rates:
EPA: 89%
Dept. of Education: 86%
Dept. of Labor: ~75%
DHS / ICE / CBP: ~0%

Bad incentives → biased outcomes.

Scatterplot of federal agencies showing furlough rates vs ideological leaning. Liberal agencies (EPA, Dept. of Education) have high furloughs; conservative ones (DOD, DHS) nearly none. Rules structurally protect GOP priorities.

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 9d

This is largely a function of institutional asymmetry. When in the minority, GOP bargaining posture often becomes obstructionist with demands towards contraction. These shutdown fights (which aren’t really a thing in other democracies) advantage GOP priorities. It’s not a fair fight.

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 9d

Contrast this to what the GOP has demanded in the past:

2011-Major deficit reduction, caps on discretionary spending.

2013-Obamacare repeal

2017-new spending caps, additional military spending

2018-Border wall construction funds

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 9d

It’s worth acknowledging that Democratic leadership isn’t asking for anything new in this budget showdown. They’re simply asking that something not be taken away.

It’s the classic “hey, give me my hat back” negotiating strategy.

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Reposted by John Kenneth White

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 9d

We’d be wise to remember Milley resisted Trump’s push to use the military on Jan 6. His later words that Trump is “fascist to the core” should remind today’s generals where their duty lies when forced to choose between the Constitution and their careers. We won’t forget. And neither will history.

Trump's top general calls former president "fascist" and "dangerous" threat

"He is now the most dangerous person to this country," Mark Milley told journalist Bob Woodward.

www.axios.com

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Reposted by Bryan D. Jones, John Kenneth White

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 9d

Trump and Hegseth’s spectacle with generals echoes classic authoritarian rituals—humiliating officers, loyalty tests, framing citizens the “enemy within.” Elsewhere and at home, generals have resisted by insisting their oath is to the Constitution, not the president. That tradition matters now.

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Reposted by Michael D. McDonald

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 9d

A friendly reminder: US billionaires have gained $968 billion in wealth so far this year—that’s 30X the annual cost of ACA subsidies Congress is fighting over in the shutdown talks.

That $968B is enough to send every single US household a $7,300 check.

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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 10d

Poll after poll shows corruption is THE issue voters care about. And Jeffries goes out of his way to praise Adams, whose public corruption charges were dropped after Trump’s DOJ unceremoniously shut the case down?

Democrats have the winning hand right in front of them. Wild that they won’t play it.

statement titled “Leader Jeffries Statement on Mayor Eric L. Adams.” It says Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries thanked Adams for decades of service as an NYPD officer, state senator, Brooklyn Borough President, and New York City’s 110th mayor. The statement highlights achievements under Adams, including reduced violent crime, more affordable housing, and recovery from COVID-19. Jeffries acknowledges ongoing challenges like the high cost of living but says meaningful progress was made. He thanks Adams for his service and says that in the coming days his focus will shift to Republican healthcare and government funding issues, and that he will comment on the remaining mayoral candidates before early voting begins.

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Reposted by Adam Bonica, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Hakeem Jefferson @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social · 11d

So grateful for the powerful way @adambonica.bsky.social is using his voice right now.

You should read his latest piece.

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Reposted by Adam Bonica

Jenny Shen @jennyqshen.bsky.social · 11d

The entire piece is worth a read.

"The evidence suggests that compromising on basic humanity doesn’t broaden coalitions; it hollows them out. The work now is to find ways to expand our reach without abandoning our foundation—to bridge gaps, yes, but never at the expense of our neighbor’s humanity."

"The authoritarian playbook deliberately seeks to conflate these two forms of anger. First, you normalize hate by presenting it as merely another political position deserving of debate. Then, when people express righteous anger at this dehumanization, you accuse them of being the real problem—intolerant, divisive, unwilling to engage in public discourse. The aggressor becomes the victim; the defense of human dignity becomes the attack on civil discourse.

Klein’s strategic pragmatism—suggesting pro-life Democrats run in red states, seeking compromises that might expand the coalition—has an appeal, assuming one accepts the premise that the dwindling political center remains the main electoral prize. Sometimes difficult compromises have led to better outcomes: Obama’s calculated positions on same-sex marriage arguably helped him appoint justices who advanced equality. But these compromises carry profound risks. They signal whose humanity is negotiable. They tell vulnerable people that their rights are chips to be bargained when convenient. And crucially, such compromises should never be voluntary—they should only come when all other avenues have been exhausted, not as an opening bid for hypothetical coalition expansion.

But here’s where the strategic calculation becomes self-defeating: “Bridging gaps” cannot come at the expense of key parts of your coalition feeling abandoned and without a sense of belonging. When we muse about trading away reproductive rights or soft-pedal responses to hate speech, we don’t just lose moral clarity, we lose the very people whose passion and commitment form the backbone of progressive politics. The trans kids facing violence, the immigrants branded as invaders, the women losing bodily autonomy—they need to know their party won’t trade their humanity for swing votes. And so do their families and those who love them."

From Adam Bonica's "On Data and Democracy"
https://data4democracy.substack.com/p/you-cant-expand-the-tent-by-shrinking

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Reposted by Anna O. Law, Daxton R. Stewart, Nathan P. Kalmoe , and 1 more Anna O. Law, Daxton R. Stewart, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Southern Africa

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 11d

Kept thinking about the debate between Klein and Coates and wrote down some thoughts.

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Reposted by Kim L. Scheppele, Efrén O. Pérez, Caroline Fohlin , and 1 more Kim L. Scheppele, Efrén O. Pérez, Caroline Fohlin, John Kenneth White

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 11d

There is a difference between righteous anger, directed at injustice, and hateful anger, directed at those who are different. Authoritarian regimes deliberately conflate the two to silence criticism and create false equivalence. It's important we don't let those in power succeed in this endeavor.

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Reposted by Anna O. Law, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan , and 10 more Anna O. Law, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Jon Green, Efrén O. Pérez, Adam Bonica, Robert C. Richards, David R. Miller, David Rosnick, Michael Larkin, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Dan Immergluck

Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 12d

This was revealing. Worth reading. The basic demand is that Coates spend less time thinking/writing his true feelings and more time playing political strategist. Klein asks him over and over him to do Dem strategy; he says no, over and over. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/o...

Opinion | Ta-Nehisi Coates on Bridging Gaps vs. Drawing Lines

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Efrén O. Pérez, Adam Bonica, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

Perry Bacon @perrybaconjr.bsky.social · 13d

"Infrequent voters are voting. It's a very low-trust environment. So the traditional left-right spectrum and going moderate on issues, it's not as clear. Anybody saying, 'I can win the election by tweaking positions" slightly is selling you something," says @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social.

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