Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
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paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
@paulgp.com
17K followers 1.5K following 3.1K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

Videos
Economics 47%
Mathematics 9%
Posts Replies Media Videos

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4h
And I read (and did!) plenty of Bayesian estimation stuff from Imbens, so I think more of the guilt lies with the practitioners than the econometricians

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4h
I could speculate but there are probably better people to ask. Gary Chamberlain was very aware of how to think about these things, but also probably could’ve given a very compelling argument of why unbiasedness is so valuable from a decision making standpoint

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 4h
If I were being thoughtful, there probably is value in having a subfield that is more dogmatic about valuing unbiasedness relative to mathematical stats, but probably not to the extent that we currently have

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5h
Probably just econometricians and bias, a hate story tbh

Or econometricians and variance, a love story

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5h
But yeah this might be one of those ones where we say “don’t interpret as causal unless you think it’s the correct spec…”

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5h
Fuckload more fixed aka non parametrics

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5h
Everyone loves cutesiness: an analysis of titles in academia

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 7h
I interpret this as an important extension of the “On Binscatter” paper by Crump et al, where the omitted/misspecified controls are time trends

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 7h
Interesting paper highlight that binning can be misspecified in panel settings - this drives misinterpretation of extreme temperature shocks. #linkoftheday

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/1ya6z...

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

philipncohen.com
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 19h
The story of how India overtook China's population is a lot longer and more complicated than it looks. No, I'm not going to tell it in a 50-skeet thread.
/1
population trends showing India surpassing China's population around 2022.

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 21h
Lol

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

nytimes.com
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 21h
Our Wirecutter testers think this cheesy contraption belongs at every holiday party. Read writer Maki Yazawa's review on the medieval-looking cheese cutter that “provides boundless entertainment for my inquisitive guests." nyti.ms/4ir2S5G

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

timkellogg.me
Tim Kellogg @timkellogg.me · 1d
it seems like the natural trajectory is for live art to take over

i showed my daughter a funny video, she laughed, but she was awestruck when i told her it wasn’t AI generated

art isn’t going away, and there’s something distinct about authentic art

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

adamshap.bsky.social
Adam Shapiro @adamshap.bsky.social · 1d
Some evidence why consumers are still unhappy

on.ft.com/3M3EA5S

Reposted by Nicholas A. Christakis, Scott L. Greer, Caroline Krafft , and 5 more

yonahfreemark.com
Yonah Freemark @yonahfreemark.com · 1d
Interesting new working paper that studies chains of movers after the construction of a new apartment building in Honolulu.

Paper finds that the project resulted in the opening up other, lower cost, housing on the island, benefiting the housing market overall.
uhero.hawaii.edu

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

wario64.bsky.social
Wario64 @wario64.bsky.social · 1d
Nintendo Switch 2 Pro Controller is $69.99 at HSN w/ code welcome2025 (free shipping) buff.ly/VfGXce9 #ad

code entered on order review screen during checkout

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d
I did not git gud yet

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d
Update on top bullshit

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

simonwillison.net
Simon Willison @simonwillison.net · 2d
At the risk of starting the flame war to end all flame wars...

Modern LLMs (GPT-5.1, Claude 4.5, Gemini 3) produce excellent code and can be a significant productivity boost to software engineers who take the time to learn how to effectively apply them - especially if used with coding agent tools

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Laurent Bergé

gmcd.bsky.social
Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social · 2d
Happy `tinyplot` v0.6.0 (codename "Thanksgiving") release day to all those that celebrate. Some new features, but mostly bug fixes and internal improvements.
grantmcdermott.com/tinyplot/NEW...

#rstats
Example of dodged pointrange (tiny)plot, with aligned ribbons layered on top.

Reposted by Brigitte Nerlich, Carl T. Bergstrom, Mark J. Brandt , and 12 more

socarxiv.bsky.social
SocArXiv @socarxiv.bsky.social · 2d
In light of record submission rates and a large volume of AI-generated slop, SocArXiv recently implemented a policy requiring ORCIDs linked in the OSF profile of submitting authors, and narrowing our focus to social science subjects. Today we are taking two more steps:
/1

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d
So glad I'm not an admin now

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d
When people see high PE ratios, they apparently predict higher stock returns -- new NBER WP using experimental info treatments #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d
Any algorithmic decision-making has both a prediction/inference AND a preference function over errors -- new NBER wp highlights how preference alignment can be too narrow within a given setting #linkoftheday
www.nber.org/system/files...

Reposted by Simon Hix, Ben H. Ansell, Jacob Montgomery , and 4 more

brendannyhan.bsky.social
Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3d
People on BlueSky: AI is useless! A stochastic parrot!

Mathematicians/biologists/physicists: It is already helping us do frontier technical research and in some cases solve open problems arxiv.org/pdf/2511.16072

(There are of course, as always, many caveats, but the paper is genuinely remarkable)
arxiv.org

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Florian Keusch

pengzell.bsky.social
Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 3d
About to kick off a peer review workshop with our brilliant @sriucl.bsky.social PhD students right now. Thanks to my colleague Alina Pelikh for hosting and I wish something like this was available when I started out.

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

alexgude.com
Alex Gude @alexgude.com · 3d
Seventy years ago Walter M Miller Jr wrote how creative work would be the first thing we automate. The Darfsteller follows an actor replaced by robots, which are both cheaper and preferred by the audience.

It's more relevant than ever in the age of Gen AI.

alexgude.com/books/the_da...

#BookReview
The Darfsteller
The Darfsteller, by Walter M. Miller Jr., is a Hugo Award-winning novelette about the obsolescence of the human artist. It follows Ryan Thornier, a former stage idol reduced to working as a janitor in...
alexgude.com

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Kristina McElheran

chicmojo.blacksky.app
Tifa | Sacred Ho🧘🏾‍♀️ @chicmojo.blacksky.app · 3d
These French babies arguing 🤣

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 3d
I think probably 60/40. But they feed off each other — the 50 minutes of working out are much more efficient, which makes me more likely to go, and so on

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

gottliebecon.bsky.social
Josh Gottlieb @gottliebecon.bsky.social · 4d
Don’t let the macro environment stop anyone from looking closely at my student Joe Battles on the market this year. x.com/GottliebEcon...

Thank you for the shoutout and the data, Paul.
x.com