Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
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paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
@paulgp.com
18K followers 1.8K following 3.5K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

Videos
Economics 47%
Mathematics 9%
Posts Replies Media Videos

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2h
Thanks for all the info Bill!

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2h
I asked my students if they used LLMs today

They all raised their hands

I asked if they used Chat GPT

They all raised their hands

I asked if they used copilot in vs code

They all raised their hands

I asked if they used Claude Code

Almost no one raised their hand 😱

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 4h
After 21 years, I'm going to stop the daily posting to my blog Calculated Risk. Thanks to everyone!

I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10h
Yeah I have no idea how to think about composition here -- I wonder how willing the folks at Emory would be to share a longer time series (or the micro data)

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

paperposterbot.bsky.social
ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 10h
arXiv📈🤖
Long-Term Causal Inference with Many Noisy Proxies
By Lal, Imbens, Hull
We propose a method for estimating long-term treatment effects with many short-term proxy outcomes: a central challenge when experimenting on digital platforms. We formalize this challenge as a latent variable problem where observed proxies are noisy measures of a low-dimensional set of unobserved surrogates that mediate treatment effects. Through theoretical analysis and simulations, we demonstrate that regularized regression methods substantially outperform naive proxy selection. We show in particular that the bias of Ridge regression decreases as more proxies are added, with closed-form expressions for the bias-variance tradeoff. We illustrate our method with an empirical application to the California GAIN experiment.

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10h
Super interesting report here on specialty coffee: www.transactionguide.coffee/reports

"fancy" coffee hasn't budged much, which is fascinating -- suggests really strong margins beforehand.
SCTG Reports and Data Briefs — Specialty Coffee Transaction Guide
www.transactionguide.coffee

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

apoorvalal.com
apoorva lal @apoorvalal.com · 12h
apoorvalal.github.io/lalgorithms/...
New linklog: new long term paper w Imbens and Hull, new job, RL<> Causal Rosetta Stone, demand elasticity simulator, and some nice metrics papers
2026-01-13
self-promotion Lal, Imbens, and Hull is a new paper we wrote analyzing the long-term causal inference problem [wherein one has a randomly assigned treatment W, several short-term proxy metrics P obser...
apoorvalal.github.io

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

emilyriederer.bsky.social
Emily Riederer @emilyriederer.bsky.social · 13h
Never underestimate the quest for knowledge no matter how irrelevant it may seem in the moment

If I hadn’t gone to a public university, I honestly wouldn’t have ever bothered to watch a basketball game. But now? “Boxing out” is a top ten skills for boarding public transportation

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 14h
😂

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 23h
hahahah somehow i've never been called a theatrical person, but yes, I'm definitely a FF stan

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d
it's the best. I play it in french and that makes it 👨‍🍳💋

also, it's so much better than most JRPGS! The combat is excellent.

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

tachikoma.elsewhereunbound.com
tachikoma @tachikoma.elsewhereunbound.com · 1d
modern art
Claude Cowork 1st impression video: Cowork irreversibly deleted 11GB of my files 💀

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d
That feeling before the next news item drops

iykyk

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

gmcd.bsky.social
Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social · 1d
I see a lot of econ/socsci Bluesky asking for AI starter advice. IMO the highest impact, low cost tweak to your workflow is training an AI to follow *your* coding/writing prefs & habits.

Literally, tell Claude: "Look at <XYZ dirs>. ID common themes, styles & conventions. Write them to a .md file."

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d
LOL

Reposted by Shannon Vallor, Timon McPhearson, Mor Naaman , and 19 more

nytimes.com
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 1d
Breaking News: The EPA will stop considering lives saved when setting pollution limits and instead calculate only the cost to businesses.
E.P.A. to Stop Considering Lives Saved by Limiting Air Pollution
In a reversal, the agency plans to calculate only the cost to industry when setting pollution limits, and not the monetary value of saving human lives, documents show.
nyti.ms

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

johnholbein1.bsky.social
John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 1d
Two new preprints on the efx of GLP-1s just dropped.

They use different samples, data, & designs.

But they come to the same conclusion on one point:

GLP-1s do not generate meaningful short- to medium-run reductions in non-GLP-1 medical spending, despite clear health benefits.

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

jomboymedia-mirror.bsky.social
Jomboy Media (Unofficial) @jomboymedia-mirror.bsky.social · 1d
“I want AJ Brown packing his bags… And I also want Kevin Patullo flipping burgers at the local McDonald’s.”

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

josephpolitano.bsky.social
Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 1d
your boy is (very briefly) cited in this week’s Economist to point out once again that if tariffs were so good they wouldn’t have to exempt data centers from them
turing sector that sends nearly a quarter of its output abroad, this is a significant pro-blem. Many inputs also come from abroad-think of industrial chemicals used in adhesive, coatings and plastics for cars or active pharmaceutical ingredients for medicines. Indeed, surveys suggest that export orders and import volumes for manufacturing have contracted markedly since Mr Trump announced high tariffs on "Liberation Day" in April, one that goes beyond the wider weakness in manufactur-ing. Factory bosses report difficulty making long-term plans. Another way to see these costs is to look at the one sort of manufacturing that has been on a tear: computer equipment, especially semiconductors (see chart 2). Demand for chips has leapt owing to the data-centre boom. Notably, however, computer parts have also received exemptions tory-owners wishing that ti less enthusiast Everything's US, manufacturin January 2017=10 Overall TT 10 2000 05 Source: Federal Reserve from Mr Trump's tariffs, points out Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics, a news-letter. Semiconductors have been carved out from Mr Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs on specific countries. More recently, the president has also watered down the export-control regime designed to deny China chips used to train the most sophisticated Al models. This rare free-trade turn seems to have provided a spur to the industry.

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d
Right right right cool cool

Reposted by Nathan Nunn

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d
In last 8 days: invade Venezuela and kidnap president, ICE shoots a mom in the face, and Trump admin brings criminal charges against Fed chair?

Am I missing anything?

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d
I proposed Creep at the meeting

Reposted by Kim L. Scheppele, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 2d
NEW: Federal prosecutors have opened up a criminal investigation into Fed chair Powell over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u... @nytimes.com
Federal Prosecutors Are Said to Have Opened Inquiry Into Fed Chair Powell
www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Joshua Gans, Caroline Krafft, Edgar Morgenroth , and 3 more

scientificdiscovery.dev
Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 2d
Economists!

I am looking for someone to coauthor an article on the massive decline in costs of genome sequencing.

The science is all fine, but I'm interested in the economics of it all: the innovation, funding, prizes, patents, etc.

Does anyone come to mind? Thanks!

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d
Just did 40 year old dads band practice where we played weezer, rhcp, oasis and sublime. #90sdadrock #thirdspace

Reposted by Will Jennings, Steve Peers, Rebecca Tushnet , and 1 more

goad.bsky.social
Goad (Legal Expert) @goad.bsky.social · 2d
Losing my shit at Ashley St Clair doing a reverse Naomi Wolf.
Ashley St Clair: dark woke cause the other option is bootlicking feds + pedophiles + nerds JunLper: you’ve previously engaged in blatant transphobia, how do you feel about trans people in the wake of noticing how the far right truly is? Ashley St Clair: I feel immense guilt for my role. And even more guilt that things I have said in the past may have caused my son’s sister more pain. Idrk how to make amends for many of these things but I have been trying incredibly hard privately to learn + advocate for those within the trans community that I’ve hurt. I also haven’t said much on this bc I have gone back and forth over whether my voice would be helpful on the issue since it will be framed as disingenuous or just turning bc I’m “scorned.” Even this reply will become right wing hysteria but yeah I am sorry. Let me know how I can help

paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d
Slightly diminish a game:

Hollow squire
unavaleable.bsky.social Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 2d
Slightly diminish a game:

Red Dead Apology 2
althistorian.bsky.social The Alternate Historian @althistorian.bsky.social · 2d
Slightly diminish a game:

The Memento of Zelda.

Reposted by Scott A. Imberman, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

unavaleable.bsky.social
Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 2d
Slightly diminish a game:

Red Dead Apology 2
althistorian.bsky.social The Alternate Historian @althistorian.bsky.social · 2d
Slightly diminish a game:

The Memento of Zelda.
carturo222.bsky.social Arturo Serrano 🇨🇴🤖👽🧙🦄 @carturo222.bsky.social · 2d
Slightly diminish a game:

Petty Theft Auto

Reposted by Anna O. Law, Caroline T. Schroeder, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , and 4 more

anjalikdayal.bsky.social
Anjali Dayal @anjalikdayal.bsky.social · 2d
we’re in the vet’s office waiting room and they just called for Agamemnon. we all looked at the Great Dane but it turns out Agamemnon is an orange kitten in a backpack that makes him look like an astronaut cheese puff

Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

cscheid.net
Carlos Scheidegger @cscheid.net · 2d
Today Claude is building a command-line app to convert sheet music to a music grid format I use personally to memorize tunes. Screenshots of the Claude Code session follow.