Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Fire in Costa Mesa
January 19, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Fire in Costa Mesa
Altos: Single family inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
January 19, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Altos: Single family inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
January 16, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Economic Weekly January 16, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.
Economic Weekly January 16, 2026
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.
economicweekly.substack.com
January 16, 2026 at 4:56 PM
Economic Weekly January 16, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...
This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.
Builder Sentiment Loses Ground at Start of 2026 www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... This is 21 consecutive months below 50.
January 16, 2026 at 3:04 PM
Builder Sentiment Loses Ground at Start of 2026 www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... This is 21 consecutive months below 50.
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026
NOTE: I’ve discontinued the daily postings on my blog, but I’m planning on writing this newsletter for several more years!
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 2:22 PM
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2026
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...
"In the week ending January 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
January 15, 2026 at 1:45 PM
"In the week ending January 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
Any tariff news?
January 15, 2026 at 1:11 AM
Any tariff news?
Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-med...
Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 14, 2026 at 8:59 PM
Lawler: Median Existing Home Sales Prices: Oops, They Did It Again calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-med...
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995
Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995
Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 14, 2026 at 3:56 PM
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.35 million SAAR in December; Lowest Annual Sales since 1995
Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Median House Prices Increased 0.4% Year-over-Year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
NAR: Existing Home sales in 2025 lowest since 1995!
It was close - just slightly behind last year.
It was close - just slightly behind last year.
January 14, 2026 at 3:05 PM
NAR: Existing Home sales in 2025 lowest since 1995!
It was close - just slightly behind last year.
It was close - just slightly behind last year.
I don't know what changed with the NAR (Existing home sales). They used to release data later in the month - their site says "on or about the 25th of each month"
This year they will be releasing much earlier each month. December will be released today.
This year they will be releasing much earlier each month. December will be released today.
January 14, 2026 at 2:50 PM
I don't know what changed with the NAR (Existing home sales). They used to release data later in the month - their site says "on or about the 25th of each month"
This year they will be releasing much earlier each month. December will be released today.
This year they will be releasing much earlier each month. December will be released today.
After 21 years, I'm going to stop the daily posting to my blog Calculated Risk. Thanks to everyone!
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 10:01 PM
After 21 years, I'm going to stop the daily posting to my blog Calculated Risk. Thanks to everyone!
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
I'm still going to write the real estate newsletter and I've started a weekly economic newsletter to replace the blog (but just once a week).
economicweekly.substack.com
Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-som...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-som...
Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 8:24 PM
Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-som...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-som...
New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 3:50 PM
New Home Sales at 737,000 Annual Rate in October
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-a...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-a...
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
First, the NAR will report earlier than usual this month.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 7:12 PM
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in December
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-a...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/2nd-look-a...
Goldman: “We are launching our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at 2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), 1.1pp above the Bloomberg consensus but 3.0pp below the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model.”
1/2
1/2
January 11, 2026 at 8:21 PM
Goldman: “We are launching our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at 2.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), 1.1pp above the Bloomberg consensus but 3.0pp below the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model.”
1/2
1/2
January 9, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Mortgage Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...
Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed secu...
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
January 9, 2026 at 7:21 PM
Mortgage Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-a...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-a...
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
Total Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) was Slightly Positive in Q3
calculatedrisk.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 7:16 PM
The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-a...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-home-a...
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/feds...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/feds...
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3
The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States . The net worth of households ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
January 9, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/feds...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/feds...
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
January 9, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/hous...
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally ad...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/hous...
Comments on December Employment Report
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/comm...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/comm...
Comments on December Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down b...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
January 9, 2026 at 2:21 PM
Comments on December Employment Report
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/comm...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/comm...