Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
Should the Fed raise rates in December?
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
November 26, 2025 at 12:24 AM
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
Should the Fed raise rates in December?
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
November 25, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Should the Fed raise rates in December?
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fhfa-annou...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fhfa-annou...
FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026
After the release of the FHFA house price index for September this morning, the FHFA released the conforming loan limits for 2026.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 6:03 PM
FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fhfa-annou...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fhfa-annou...
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 1.9% in October; Down 0.4% YoY
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 1.9% in October; Down 0.4% YoY
From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 1.9% Increase in October Pending home sales in October increased by 1.9% from the prior m...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:37 PM
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 1.9% in October; Down 0.4% YoY
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...
FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 25, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...
FHFA House Prices up 1.7% YoY in September
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/case...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/case...
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September clos...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 25, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/case...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/case...
This suggests Q3 GDP 2nd estimate will be released Dec4th (day before personal income)
BEA:
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) is cancelled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 30.
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025, will be released on Dec. 5 at 10 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 31.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) is cancelled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 30.
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025, will be released on Dec. 5 at 10 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 31.
November 24, 2025 at 8:03 PM
This suggests Q3 GDP 2nd estimate will be released Dec4th (day before personal income)
BEA:
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) is cancelled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 30.
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025, will be released on Dec. 5 at 10 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 31.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) is cancelled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 30.
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025, will be released on Dec. 5 at 10 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 31.
November 24, 2025 at 5:49 PM
BEA:
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) is cancelled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 30.
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025, will be released on Dec. 5 at 10 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 31.
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) is cancelled. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 30.
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025, will be released on Dec. 5 at 10 a.m. These data were originally scheduled for release on Oct. 31.
Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/every-hous...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/every-hous...
Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"
“All happy families are alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” Leo Tolstoy, Anna Karenina
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 24, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/every-hous...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/every-hous...
Housing November 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Only Down 4.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
Housing November 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Only Down 4.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then de...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 24, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Housing November 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Only Down 4.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hous...
Goldman: "We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%. The risks for next year are tilted toward more cuts ..."
November 23, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Goldman: "We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%. The risks for next year are tilted toward more cuts ..."
Q3 GDP Tracking: Close to 4%
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/q3-g...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/q3-g...
Q3 GDP Tracking: Close to 4%
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar . [November 14th estimate] emphasis added F...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 21, 2025 at 4:57 PM
Q3 GDP Tracking: Close to 4%
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/q3-g...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/q3-g...
Reposted by Bill McBride
BLS officially cancels October CPI report.
"BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. "
November CPI to be released on December 18
"BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. "
November CPI to be released on December 18
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
www.bls.gov
November 21, 2025 at 4:11 PM
BLS officially cancels October CPI report.
"BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. "
November CPI to be released on December 18
"BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS is unable to retroactively collect these data. "
November CPI to be released on December 18
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.1% Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.1% Year-over-year
Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupanc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 20, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.1% Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/hote...
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
November 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.2% Increase in October Month-over-month • 1.2% increase in existing-home sales – seaso...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 20, 2025 at 3:11 PM
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/nar-...
September Employment Report: 119 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/sept...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/sept...
September Employment Report: 119 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has shown little change since Ap...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:46 PM
September Employment Report: 119 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/sept...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/sept...
AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms" in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aia-...
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aia-...
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms" in October
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:16 PM
AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms" in October
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aia-...
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/aia-...
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October; What is the “Market’s” Estimate of R*? calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
What is the “Market’s” Estimate of R*?
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:53 PM
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October; What is the “Market’s” Estimate of R*? calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-ear...
FOMC Minutes: "Likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
November 19, 2025 at 7:26 PM
FOMC Minutes: "Likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
Reposted by Bill McBride
BLS confirms they will not publish the October household survey data. Establishment survey to be published December 16.
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
November 19, 2025 at 5:25 PM
BLS confirms they will not publish the October household survey data. Establishment survey to be published December 16.
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Trade Deficit Decreased to $59.6 Billion in August
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/trad...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/trad...
Trade Deficit Decreased to $59.6 Billion in August
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 19, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Trade Deficit Decreased to $59.6 Billion in August
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/trad...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/trad...
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, ...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 19, 2025 at 1:27 PM
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/mba-...
LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in October; Exports Down YoY for 11th Consecutive Month www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/la-p...
LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in October; Exports Down YoY for 11th Consecutive Month
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report si...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
November 18, 2025 at 9:03 PM
LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in October; Exports Down YoY for 11th Consecutive Month www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/la-p...
Goldman: "Looking ahead, we expect October nonfarm payroll growth of -50k, largely reflecting a 100k headwind from the end of the federal government’s deferred resignation program. ... we do not expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce an October unemployment rate"
November 18, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Goldman: "Looking ahead, we expect October nonfarm payroll growth of -50k, largely reflecting a 100k headwind from the end of the federal government’s deferred resignation program. ... we do not expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to produce an October unemployment rate"