calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
12K followers 300 following 2.2K posts
Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7h
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/mba-...
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier,...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21h
It’s a different index. This is CoreLogics own index
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 21h
tracking.us.nylas.com/l/960dcbfa3c...
US home price insights — October 2025
Year-over-year price growth continues it's downward trajectory with negative home price growth is mainly concentrated in Florida. | Cotality
tracking.us.nylas.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 22h
Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) “Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.3% in August 2025. Monthly price increases were in negative territory (down 0.3%) between July and August 2025, following a 0.2% decline in July.”
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 1d
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September
Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 2d
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Another monthly update on rents.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 2d
October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/october-ic...
October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year
Here is the ICE October Mortgage Monitor report (pdf).
calculatedrisk.substack.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 2d
Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...
Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then d...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 3d
AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/aar-...
AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center . Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission . The AAR Freight Rail Ind...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 4d
Goldman: "Our ... inflation forecasting process relies almost entirely on private-sector data and ...has not been meaningfully impacted by the shutdown. Our preliminary estimate of September core CPI suggests that monthly inflation moderated in September: we forecast 0.26% vs. 0.35% in August."
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 5d
Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/q3-g...
Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6% after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the thir...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 5d
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50% in September; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fourth Consecutive Month
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 5d
Goldman on initial claims: “We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims ticked up to about 224k for the week ended September 27th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this evening’s release of state-level claims.”
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Reposted by Bill McBride
mikesimonsen.bsky.social
Mike Simonsen @mikesimonsen.bsky.social · 5d
Maryland is just playing catch up!
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 5d
Yes. Thanks. And that does show inventory up sharply in MD.

Of course the worst problems are in Florida and Texas (maybe not YoY, but months-of-supply)
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 5d
I think Lance uses Zillow, and that shows total inventory up 20% (about average for Nation). Maybe he uses some other data?
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 5d
Seems incorrect. active inventory is down slightly YoY in Maryland according to the Maryland Realtors.
www.mdrealtor.org/News-and-Eve...
Housing Statistics
Maryland Housing Statistics
www.mdrealtor.org
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6d
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hote...
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year
Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupanc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6d
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 6d
Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ligh...

expiring EV credit boosted sales.
Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
Note: Heavy truck sales will not be available from the BEA during the shutdown. Omida reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.4 milli...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7d
30 Worst Performing CBSAs
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7d
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7d
ISM® Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month.
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7d
ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/adp-...
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calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 7d
MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/mbam...
MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier,...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
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