Bill McBride
@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Initial unemployment Claims: "In the week ending January 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 200,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. ... The 4-week moving average was 201,500"
January 22, 2026 at 1:34 PM
Initial unemployment Claims: "In the week ending January 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 200,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. ... The 4-week moving average was 201,500"
January 21, 2026 at 9:13 PM
From the MBA this morning: “Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications, which saw the strongest level of activity since September 2025.... Purchase applications were also up over the week ... and were almost 18 percent higher than last year.”
January 21, 2026 at 2:30 PM
From the MBA this morning: “Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications, which saw the strongest level of activity since September 2025.... Purchase applications were also up over the week ... and were almost 18 percent higher than last year.”
January 20, 2026 at 8:03 PM
Just smoke in the sky now
January 19, 2026 at 5:06 PM
Just smoke in the sky now
Fire in Costa Mesa
January 19, 2026 at 4:06 PM
Fire in Costa Mesa
Altos: Single family inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
January 19, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Altos: Single family inventory up 1.3% Week-over-week
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
If inventory bottomed in Week 1, that would be pretty early in the year.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube www.youtube.com/altosresearch
January 16, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Builder Sentiment Loses Ground at Start of 2026 www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... This is 21 consecutive months below 50.
January 16, 2026 at 3:04 PM
Builder Sentiment Loses Ground at Start of 2026 www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... This is 21 consecutive months below 50.
"In the week ending January 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
January 15, 2026 at 1:45 PM
"In the week ending January 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
January 9, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
January 9, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
January 2, 2026 at 4:13 PM
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Price-to-rent index is 9.9% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
December 31, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in November
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Punta Gorda House Prices Down 21% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Here is the Multi-family delinquency graph ...
December 26, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Here is the Multi-family delinquency graph ...
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
December 19, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nove...
Only 100 thousand jobs added over last 7 months!
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nove...
Only 100 thousand jobs added over last 7 months!
December 16, 2025 at 1:53 PM
November Employment Report: 64 thousand Jobs, 4.6% Unemployment Rate; October Lost 105 thousand Jobs
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nove...
Only 100 thousand jobs added over last 7 months!
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/nove...
Only 100 thousand jobs added over last 7 months!
December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/december-i...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/december-i...
December 8, 2025 at 3:31 PM
December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/december-i...
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/december-i...
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October
Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
November 26, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October
Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Punta Gorda House Prices Down Over 20% from Recent Peak, Austin Down over 17%
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
November 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...
Sales are essentially unchanged year-to-date.
Will this be the lowest level of annual sales in 30 years?
First snowfall in SoCal mountains. They added the depth marker for later this winter.
November 18, 2025 at 12:38 AM
First snowfall in SoCal mountains. They added the depth marker for later this winter.
Negative equity increasing especially in Florida and parts of Texas.
November 10, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Negative equity increasing especially in Florida and parts of Texas.
10 things to know about the property market: October 2025 www.cotality.com/press-releas...
November 5, 2025 at 12:04 AM
10 things to know about the property market: October 2025 www.cotality.com/press-releas...