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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

@paulgp.com

16K followers 1.5K following 2.8K posts

Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his

Videos

Economics 47%

Mathematics 9%

Posts Media Videos Starter Packs

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 39m

Thanks for the link, this is quite interesting.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 45m

This is quite remarkable. From a monetary standpoint, I interpret this as saying "labor market is much less weak than expected -- we should be tightening to deal with inflation."

George Pearkes @peark.es · 1h

Absolute banger of a blog post from Dallas Fed economist Anton Cheremukhin who estimates breakeven payrolls have fallen to *30k* thanks to rapid declines in population growth.
www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Chart showing estimates of US population growth at monthly frequencies from 2017-2025 from BLS, BEA/Census, CBO, and author's calculations

Estimated monthly contributions to monthly breakeven payroll growth across population, changes in institutionalization/civilian status, and labor force participation 2017 - 2025

Estimated monthly breakeven payrolls rate from 2022-2025

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

George Pearkes @peark.es · 1h

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Ryan Enos, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , and 2 more Brendan Nyhan, Ryan Enos, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Michael D. McDonald, Simon Lester

FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 2h

new polls website just dropped fiftyplusone.news

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15h

Added Finance job decomposition, and Federal Reserve Bank/Board jobs (zero so far this year...)

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 15h

Added Fed analysis (also FDIC and OCC) -- you're right that there's nothing. And that's way below the usual level. paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...

Economics Job Market Tracker: Visualizing JOE Posting Trends 2015-2025

paulgp.com

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 17h

I’ll try to look. This is a great idea

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 19h

You’re ready for the Times editorial team!!

Reposted by Joshua Goodman, Keith Head

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 20h

Posted a short blog post with updated data (and public repo with data) of current state of Econ job market:

paulgp.com/2025/10/08/j...

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

thebes @vgel.me · 1d

if you're interesting in gaining a better intuition for how llms behave at inference time, you should try logitloom🌱, the open-source tool i made for exploring token trajectory trees (aka looming) on base and instruct models! more info in thread

🌱 vgel.me/logitloom
💻 github.com/vgel/logitloom

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Bill Amend @billamend.bsky.social · 1d

My friend Matt Inman made a great comic about AI…

A cartoonist's review of AI art - The Oatmeal

This is a comic about AI art.

theoatmeal.com

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Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Jan W. Mueller, Joe R. Feagin , and 12 more Joanna Bryson, Jan W. Mueller, Joe R. Feagin, Brendan Nyhan, Pamela Samuelson, Scott L. Greer, Daniel W. Drezner, Melanie C. Green, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Rebecca M. Bratspies, Michael D. McDonald, Mark Rice, Andrew Rudalevige, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Jack Jenkins @jackjenkins.me · 1d

Gonna be thinking about this lede for a minute.

(RNS) — Last month, the Rev. David Black stood in front of a Chicago-area U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility and spread his arms wide. Adorned in all black and wearing a clerical collar, the pastor looked up at a group of masked, heavily armed ICE agents on the roof and began to pray.

“I invited them to repentance,” Black, a minister in the Presbyterian Church (USA), said in an interview. “I basically offered an altar call. I invited them to come and receive that salvation, and be part of the kingdom that is coming.”

But when Black began to lower his arms a few seconds later, the agents responded to his spiritual plea by firing pepper balls, or chemical agents that cause eye irritation and respiratory distress, video footage shows. One struck Black in the head, exploding into a puff of white pepper smoke and forcing him to his knees. Fellow demonstrators rushed to his aid, and as the pastor rubbed his face in pain, the agents continued to fire.

“We could hear them laughing,” Black said.

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Reposted by Linda J. Skitka, Philip N. Cohen, David S. Cohen , and 4 more Linda J. Skitka, Philip N. Cohen, David S. Cohen, Andrew L. Whitehead, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Simon Lester, Aviel Roshwald

Paul Fairie @paulisci.bsky.social · 1d

A Brief History of Men are Becoming Less Manly

🧵

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 1d

I just don't think of that as counterfactually changing race. It counterfactually changes how the *reader* of the resume perceives race, which is very manipulable.

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

I don’t love counter factual statements that don’t have a practical manipulation associated with them (eg I think race counter factual is not a reasonable idea à la Holland 2005)

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Reposted by Valerie Mueller, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Juan Moreno‐Cruz , and 1 more Valerie Mueller, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Juan Moreno‐Cruz, Evan Roberts

Seema Jayachandran @seema.bsky.social · 2d

We just spent 6 months to add 1 figure to this paper. Some people said, "Couples aren't prioritizing men's careers. Men just have better earnings opportunities when moving."

Earnings effects of moves for couples on the left, singles on the right. Negligible gap between single men and women.

Event study coefficients that show that men's earnings rise more than women's among couples following a cross-commuting zone move (left panels). The pattern is muted or reverses among single men and single women (right panels).

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Reposted by Joshua Goodman

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

Working on writing up a short note (and blog post) trying to explain the distinction between model-based and design-based identification.

Any questions regarding this that are burning for you?

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

I was only just barely understanding Sen in college, this would’ve been over my head

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

Based Mill

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Desiree Weber @desireeweber.bsky.social · 2d

For anyone who wants to keep reading JS Mill on how dudes too used to being god’s gift will resist the call of liberty for others:

www.unlv.edu/sites/defaul...

www.unlv.edu

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Desiree Weber @desireeweber.bsky.social · 2d

In The Subjection of Women, he kind of did?

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

CJ Fogler @cjzero.bsky.social · 2d

A Nick Castellanos double scores two and the Phillies are now down by just one

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 2d

You’re absolutely right!

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Reposted by Michael Barnett, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Aaron Schwartz @aschwartz.bsky.social · 2d

Today's Nobel Prize in Medicine went to the discoverers of regulatory T-cells. How could this discovery about our immune systems change the world?

Here is one possible way: leading to treatments for terrible neurological diseases. (1/3)

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Reposted by Richard McElreath, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Barrett

Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 3d

I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University.

Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...

ELLIS PhD Program: Call for Applications 2025

The ELLIS mission is to create a diverse European network that promotes research excellence and advances breakthroughs in AI, as well as a pan-European PhD program to educate the next generation of AI...

ellis.eu

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Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Olivier Simard-Casanova @o.simardcasanova.net · 3d

Less than a month after his nomination, the new French PM has already resigned

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Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Christian Odendahl, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham

Lottie @sellottie.bsky.social · 3d

It’s happened again

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Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Mohan J. Dutta, Will Jennings , and 11 more Richard S.J. Tol, Mohan J. Dutta, Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Steve Peers, Joni Lovenduski, Aaron Sojourner, Adrian Daub, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Michael D. McDonald, Jason Lyall, Rebecca Zorach, Aviel Roshwald, Nathan P. Kalmoe

taber @kvetch.gay · 5d

this is wild: while Stephen Miller's guy was in Minnesota for his uncle's funeral, somebody was able to see his entire phone and take pictures of his Signal group chats talking about military deployments to Portland, and brought them to the Strib (gift link: www.startribune.com/trump-offici...)

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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5d

Very interesting. Shouldn’t we roughly know from census data the total base of school aged kids in an area?

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5d

Oh cool! I’m curious in the US but it’s an interesting question how much substation to private school happened in Mexico too. Do you have a sense of how that looked in Covid?