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paulgp.com
Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
@paulgp.com
18K followers 1.8K following 3.5K posts
Yale SOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. He/him/his
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
anjalikdayal.bsky.social
we’re in the vet’s office waiting room and they just called for Agamemnon. we all looked at the Great Dane but it turns out Agamemnon is an orange kitten in a backpack that makes him look like an astronaut cheese puff
January 11, 2026 at 5:27 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
jakubnowosad.com
We just published a JOSIS paper on what spatial data science languages have in common and what they still need. Insights from across the R, Python & Julia ecosystems.

URL: doi.org/10.5311/JOSI...

#SpatialDataScience #GISchat #OpenSource #RSpatial #GeoPython #JuliaGeo
January 11, 2026 at 4:01 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
josephpolitano.bsky.social
NEW from me:

Job growth has been functionally zero over the last five months, as the US sinks from a “low hire, low fire” labor market to a “no hire” one.

That slowdown is hitting young & low income workers the hardest 🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/the-no-hir...
The 'No Hire' Economy
US Job Growth has Zeroed Out as Hiring Rates Sink, Hitting Young & Low Income Workers the Hardest
www.apricitas.io
January 11, 2026 at 2:57 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
cscheid.net
Today Claude is building a command-line app to convert sheet music to a music grid format I use personally to memorize tunes. Screenshots of the Claude Code session follow.
January 11, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
billamend.bsky.social
This week's comic: Thermathstat foxtrot.com/2026/01/11/t...
Thermathstat
FoxTrot by Bill Amend | January 11, 2026
foxtrot.com
January 11, 2026 at 3:35 PM
paulgp.com
I did not know this!
profnoto.bsky.social Matt Notowidigdo @profnoto.bsky.social · 1d
I have been hearing recently that many people don't know about the ability to submit to AEJ-Policy (or any of the other AEJs) after submitting to AER-Insights (following the same process that existed going from the AER to the AEJs)

More details and instructions here: www.aeaweb.org/journals/pol...
January 11, 2026 at 12:53 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
jeremy-data.bsky.social
If you don't want Claude to load all this great #RStats content for each session, try asking Claude Code to deconstruct this content into distinct skills. On first pass it did not add required YAML headers, so needed second pass with those instructions. Here are the skills I ended up with.
A terminal output showing a directory tree structure. The heading reads "Done. New structure:" followed by the path .claude/skills/ containing six subdirectories, each with a SKILL.md file inside: writing-r-classes/, writing-r-packages/, writing-r-performance/, writing-r-style/, writing-r-tidyeval/, and writing-r-tidyverse/. The tree uses standard ASCII box-drawing characters to show the hierarchy.
January 10, 2026 at 6:03 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
emilyriederer.bsky.social
Weeks after writing about how the best ideas bleed btwn R and python, I find out from @stephenturner.us 's excellent blog that the #rstats world is attempting their own Rust-based analog to `uv` (for deps mgmt not packaging)

Haven't tried but neat to watch

a2-ai.github.io/rv-docs/
January 10, 2026 at 9:07 PM
paulgp.com
There’s this fact too (by a former Yale student now at MIT) bsky.app/profile/paul...
paulgp.com Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 5h
A recent finding has suggested that the medium to long term effects of this are smaller than we had hoped

tahachoukhmane.com/wp-content/u...
January 11, 2026 at 12:51 PM
paulgp.com
A recent finding has suggested that the medium to long term effects of this are smaller than we had hoped

tahachoukhmane.com/wp-content/u...
January 11, 2026 at 12:50 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
ichotiner.bsky.social
New Interview: www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
January 11, 2026 at 12:28 AM
paulgp.com
Ok guess it’s time for me to hop on the bears bandwagon
January 11, 2026 at 12:44 PM
paulgp.com
If you’re not using the For you feed you’re missing out
danabra.mov dan @danabra.mov · 16h
i wonder how much of this is people using the For You feed which does a much better job at finding “your” cluster
finfet.sh Finfet @finfet.sh · 21h
The discussions about LLMs today have been fascinating. Genuinely healthy conversations (imo). I have no idea how public perception within the dev community here changed so much over the last 30 days.
January 11, 2026 at 4:04 AM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
danabra.mov
i wonder how much of this is people using the For You feed which does a much better job at finding “your” cluster
finfet.sh Finfet @finfet.sh · 21h
The discussions about LLMs today have been fascinating. Genuinely healthy conversations (imo). I have no idea how public perception within the dev community here changed so much over the last 30 days.
January 11, 2026 at 2:00 AM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
joelchan86.bsky.social
Really fascinating to watch progress on AI-assisted research in mathematics, especially since we have an incredible narrator in Field Medalist Terence Tao!

#TIL he's been curating examples of attempts/successes here: github.com/teorth/erdos...
screenshot of a wiki about AI contribution to erdos problems. it shows the description of the wiki (collecting "various ways in which Ai tools have contributed to the understanding of Erdos problems"), as well as various disclaimers about how to interpret the contributions listed.
January 11, 2026 at 2:38 AM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
juniorhoncho.bsky.social
forgetting the word Domesticated and telling people at this party raccoons have gotten "more coachable." at some point i start adding "over the offseason" which i don't think raccoons even have yet
January 11, 2026 at 1:40 AM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
“Do not get lost in a sea of despair.”

- John Lewis #RIP
January 10, 2026 at 5:34 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
profnoto.bsky.social
I have been hearing recently that many people don't know about the ability to submit to AEJ-Policy (or any of the other AEJs) after submitting to AER-Insights (following the same process that existed going from the AER to the AEJs)

More details and instructions here: www.aeaweb.org/journals/pol...
January 10, 2026 at 4:34 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
trevondlogan.bsky.social
Things are so bleak right now, so I really appreciate @corinnelow.com letting me know I’m the subject of a legitimate SAT question. (A life goal I didn’t know I had!)

Sometimes you need things just make you smile just because. And I needed that.
January 10, 2026 at 2:51 PM
paulgp.com
Secret economist
ucberkeleylaw.bsky.social UC Berkeley Law @ucberkeleylaw.bsky.social · 1d
A team of scholars including Professor Jonah B. Gelbach is one of two recipients of the 2026 Civil Justice Scholarship Award from the National Civil Justice Institute for an article published in the University of Chicago Law Review last year: https://bit.ly/4jS6DlL #BerkeleyLaw
‘Secret Settlements’ Study Wins Civil Justice Award
A team of scholars including Professor Jonah B. Gelbach is one of two recipients of the 2026 Civil Justice Scholarship Award for an article published in the University of Chicago Law Review last year.
bit.ly
January 10, 2026 at 2:29 AM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
ucberkeleylaw.bsky.social
A team of scholars including Professor Jonah B. Gelbach is one of two recipients of the 2026 Civil Justice Scholarship Award from the National Civil Justice Institute for an article published in the University of Chicago Law Review last year: https://bit.ly/4jS6DlL #BerkeleyLaw
‘Secret Settlements’ Study Wins Civil Justice Award
A team of scholars including Professor Jonah B. Gelbach is one of two recipients of the 2026 Civil Justice Scholarship Award for an article published in the University of Chicago Law Review last year.
bit.ly
January 9, 2026 at 10:19 PM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
arxivecongnbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Large language models can effectively convince people to believe conspiracies
By Costello, Pelrine, Kowal et al
Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be persuasive across a variety of context. But it remains unclear whether this persuasive power advantages truth over falsehood, or if LLMs can promote misbeliefs just as easily as refuting them. Here, we investigate this question across three pre-registered experiments in which participants (N = 2,724 Americans) discussed a conspiracy theory they were uncertain about with GPT-4o, and the model was instructed to either argue against ("debunking") or for ("bunking") that conspiracy. When using a "jailbroken" GPT-4o variant with guardrails removed, the AI was as effective at increasing conspiracy belief as decreasing it. Concerningly, the bunking AI was rated more positively, and increased trust in AI, more than the debunking AI. Surprisingly, we found that using standard GPT-4o produced very similar effects, such that the guardrails imposed by OpenAI did little to revent the LLM from promoting conspiracy beliefs. Encouragingly, however, a corrective conversation reversed these newly induced conspiracy beliefs, and simply prompting GPT-4o to only use accurate information dramatically reduced its ability to increase conspiracy beliefs. Our findings demonstrate that LLMs possess potent abilities to promote both truth and falsehood, but that potential solutions may exist to help mitigate this risk.
January 10, 2026 at 2:03 AM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
arxivecongnbot.bsky.social
arXiv📈🤖
Towards a Sociology of Sociology: Inequality, Elitism, and Prestige in the Sociological Enterprise From 1970 to the Present
By Cook
There is a science of science and an informal economics of economics, but there is not a cohesive sociology of sociology. We turn the central findings and theoretical lenses of the sociological tradition and the sociological study of stratification inward on sociology itself to investigate how sociology has changed since the 1970s. We link two bibliometric databases to trace diachronic relationships between PhD training and publication outcomes, both of which are understudied in the science of science and sociology of science. All of sociology's top 3 journals remained biased against alum of less prestigious PhD programs, and while most forms of bias in elite sociological publishing have ameliorated over time, the house bias of the American Journal of Sociology in favor PhD alumnae of UChicago has intensified.
January 10, 2026 at 1:59 AM
Reposted by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham
joshsternberg.com
Today in “Dudes Rock”:

A dude playing Dire Straits’s “Sultans of Swing” guitar solo on…a recorder.
December 12, 2025 at 12:50 AM
paulgp.com
@pedrosantanna.bsky.social
January 9, 2026 at 8:20 PM