Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. [email protected]
Pinned
Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
· Jan 21
Thrilled to announce I’ve joined @nytimes to lead their coverage of the Federal Reserve and write about the US economy. Big thank you to @FT for a wonderful nearly 7 years. You can now reach me at [email protected]
Proponents of a December cut gained a powerful backer on Friday, with John Williams of the NY Fed and a close ally of Powell saying there is scope for interest rates to be lowered in the "near term" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/b... @nytimes.com
Top Fed Official Boosts Odds of a December Rate Cut
www.nytimes.com
November 21, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Proponents of a December cut gained a powerful backer on Friday, with John Williams of the NY Fed and a close ally of Powell saying there is scope for interest rates to be lowered in the "near term" www.nytimes.com/2025/11/21/b... @nytimes.com
This jobs report complicates things for the Fed. If you're an official who didn't want to cut in December, you can point to stronger than expected monthly payrolls growth. But if you're an official who wants to cut, the slight tick-up in the unemployment rate helps that case
November 20, 2025 at 1:52 PM
This jobs report complicates things for the Fed. If you're an official who didn't want to cut in December, you can point to stronger than expected monthly payrolls growth. But if you're an official who wants to cut, the slight tick-up in the unemployment rate helps that case
Minutes from October's Fed meeting underscore just how divided policymakers are about a December cut
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
December Rate Cut in Doubt as Fed Fault Lines Deepen, Minutes Show
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Minutes from October's Fed meeting underscore just how divided policymakers are about a December cut
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
Many did not think a cut then is appropriate, and some who voted in favor of the October move said they also could have supported standing pat www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed has published the memo in full, along with a statement from Bowman:
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 2:03 PM
The Fed has published the memo in full, along with a statement from Bowman:
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
"Our supervisory approach is not about narrowing our focus — it is about sharpening it," she said. "This is not about what we are leaving behind — it is about building a more effective supervisory framework"
The top concern we heard about the Fed's embrace of lighter-touch bank oversight is that it could lead to more blindspots that may mean a bigger crisis
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks
www.nytimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 1:28 PM
The top concern we heard about the Fed's embrace of lighter-touch bank oversight is that it could lead to more blindspots that may mean a bigger crisis
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
"People don’t know what problems were stopped before they had a chance to hurt them," said Peggy Twohig, who led the CFPB's supervision dept
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Wall Street’s Top Cop Ushers In Lighter-Touch Oversight of Banks
www.nytimes.com
November 17, 2025 at 10:32 PM
NEW: Top supervisors at the Fed's 12 reserve banks and senior staff in Washington received a memo on Oct 29 with directives fundamentally changing how the central bank oversees banks
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
It is part of a sweeping overhaul led by Bowman
🎁🔗 www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b... @nytimes.com
Days before the July 29-30 meeting, Kugler asked Powell for a waiver so that she could trade during the blackout period in order to get rid of impermissible holdings. That request was denied.
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
Former Fed Official Violated Trading Rules, Disclosures Show
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Days before the July 29-30 meeting, Kugler asked Powell for a waiver so that she could trade during the blackout period in order to get rid of impermissible holdings. That request was denied.
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
Ms. Kugler did not attend the meeting and on Aug 1 she resigned
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
Former Fed Official Violated Trading Rules, Disclosures Show
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:44 PM
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
As Consumer Bureau’s Cash Dwindles, Trump Administration Declares Its Funding Illegal www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:53 PM
As Consumer Bureau’s Cash Dwindles, Trump Administration Declares Its Funding Illegal www.nytimes.com/2025/11/12/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic will step down from his position in February, creating yet another vacancy at the top ranks of the central bank.
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
November 12, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic will step down from his position in February, creating yet another vacancy at the top ranks of the central bank.
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
Regional presidents are selected by their local boards, but the Fed's board in DC has veto power
The Fed's recent rate decisions have been divisive. It's likely to get worse.
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
November 7, 2025 at 2:38 PM
The Fed's recent rate decisions have been divisive. It's likely to get worse.
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
In one camp are officials like Hammack (Cleveland), who told @nytimes.com she preferred not to cut last month and suggested a December one was not needed. Others are more worried about the labor market
New: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
Trump Aides Raise Recession Fears, and Point Fingers at the Fed
www.nytimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:27 PM
New: The Trump admin is wielding the possibility that parts of the economy are in a recession in an attempt to raise pressure on the Fed to cut rates. The hope is that the central bank will bear the blame for any downturn
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/u... @nytimes.com
Lisa Cook briefly addresses her ongoing legal battle with the president, who is trying to oust her from the Fed. In her first comments since Trump announced her firing, Cook said she was "grateful" for the support and that she would continue to carry out her sworn duties
November 3, 2025 at 7:25 PM
Lisa Cook briefly addresses her ongoing legal battle with the president, who is trying to oust her from the Fed. In her first comments since Trump announced her firing, Cook said she was "grateful" for the support and that she would continue to carry out her sworn duties
Reposted by Colby Smith
Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts
www.nytimes.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Speaking w/ @nytimes.com, Miran defends his dissent for a 50bp cut at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the central bank risks inducing a recession if it does not swiftly lower rates. He expects the Fed to cut again in December and will likely dissent again
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
Fed Risks a Recession if It Doesn’t Cut Rates Rapidly, a Top Official Warns
www.nytimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Speaking w/ @nytimes.com, Miran defends his dissent for a 50bp cut at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the central bank risks inducing a recession if it does not swiftly lower rates. He expects the Fed to cut again in December and will likely dissent again
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/b...
The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
A Month Without Data Muddles the Economic Picture
www.nytimes.com
October 30, 2025 at 2:58 PM
The shutdown may not leave lasting economic damage, but it's making the Fed's job harder
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Powell warned the data blackout might be a reason for officials to move cautiously with cuts, upending expectations about December
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/b... @bencasselman.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Fed cuts rates by 25bps. Two officials dissent: Miran in favor of a 50bp cut and Schmid in favor of standing pat.
The Fed will end QT on December 1
The Fed will end QT on December 1
October 29, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Fed cuts rates by 25bps. Two officials dissent: Miran in favor of a 50bp cut and Schmid in favor of standing pat.
The Fed will end QT on December 1
The Fed will end QT on December 1
The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The labor market is in focus as the Fed prepares to cut rates for a second-meeting in a row today despite inflation picking back up. But the shutdown has made it hard to know how significantly it is weakening www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
October 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
The Fed's strategy to cut rates in support of the labor market even as inflation rose was always considered risky. The shutdown has made it all the more treacherous, obscuring officials’ view of the economy as divisions have sharpened
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/28/b... @nytimes.com
When the Fed meets this week, its officials will be discussing more than just the outlook for rates. Strains in funding markets have raised the urgency around their debate about QT
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
Strains in Short-Term Markets Raise Urgency of Fed’s Balance Sheet Debate
www.nytimes.com
October 27, 2025 at 3:59 PM
When the Fed meets this week, its officials will be discussing more than just the outlook for rates. Strains in funding markets have raised the urgency around their debate about QT
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
"Alerts are going off on a very regular basis right now"
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/b... @nytimes.com
The Fed is making its stress tests more transparent following a lawsuit from the country's biggest banks. The proposal has broad support, but Barr (fmr VC for supervision) says it will make the financial system less safe
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
Fed Prepares Bank-Friendly Changes to Annual Stress Tests
www.nytimes.com
October 24, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The Fed is making its stress tests more transparent following a lawsuit from the country's biggest banks. The proposal has broad support, but Barr (fmr VC for supervision) says it will make the financial system less safe
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/b... @stacycowley.bsky.social @nytimes.com
The BLS may not be able to release the next CPI report, which is due in November, because of the shutdown, according to a White House official. That would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December @tonyromm.bsky.social
October 24, 2025 at 1:23 PM
The BLS may not be able to release the next CPI report, which is due in November, because of the shutdown, according to a White House official. That would leave the Fed without a good read on how inflation is evolving ahead of its final meeting of the year in December @tonyromm.bsky.social
The relatively benign CPI report keeps the Fed on track to lower interest rates next week
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
October 24, 2025 at 12:43 PM
The relatively benign CPI report keeps the Fed on track to lower interest rates next week
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
"Core" prices rose less than expected, with the annual rate edging lower to 3%
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
October 20, 2025 at 2:50 PM
New w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social: Wealthy Americans, buoyed by a booming stock market, are spending freely. Lower-income households, stung by inflation and a slowing labor market, are pulling back
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b... @nytimes.com
Reposted by Colby Smith
Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling.
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
October 19, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Wealthy Americans Are Spending. People With Less Are Struggling.
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...
Via @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social and NYT Business:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...