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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith
@colbylsmith.bsky.social
13K followers 180 following 220 posts
@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. [email protected]
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · Jan 21
Thrilled to announce I’ve joined @nytimes to lead their coverage of the Federal Reserve and write about the US economy. Big thank you to @FT for a wonderful nearly 7 years. You can now reach me at [email protected]
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
He plans to stay in his role until mandated to retire in 2028
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
Actually reaching 2% inflation is important for the Fed's independence and credibility, he said. Amid attacks from the president, Williams said he was just focused on doing his job. "We're not political creatures."
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
Asked about the 2% target given that inflation has run above that level for 5 yrs and is moving away from it given tariffs, Williams said: "We’re not losing track of that." He just wants to make sure they are trying to "minimize the risk of the labor market cooling more sharply"
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
Rates are still "modestly restrictive" and he sees the Fed on a "journey back to neutral." He sees no second round effects from tariffs and more downside risk to the labor market than upside risk to inflation
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
Williams did not seem deterred by the lapse in official government statistics (which he thinks are the "gold standard") and pointed to a number of alternative measures that he would monitor, like Conference Board surveys, the NYFed's SCE and private sector sources
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
If the economy evolves as expected — inflation moving up to around 3% and the unemployment rate inching up beyond its current 4.3% — he would back "lower rates this year, but we’ll have to see exactly what that means."
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
Williams appears chiefly worried about cracks that have formed in the labor market and wants to make sure that those do not deepen

"The risks of a further slowdown in the labor market is something I’m very focused on"
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 9h
In an interview with @nytimes.com, John Williams of @newyorkfed.bsky.social backs further cuts given his concerns about the labor market. We also discussed inflation, the shutdown, why Fed independence is important and more

thread below/gift link to the transcript: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...
New York Fed President Backs Interest Rate Cuts to Protect Labor Market
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 1d
Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 2d
Miran on Tuesday explained his shift from opposing rate cuts last year to supporting them this year, saying his view of neutral "has basically just gone from one end of the range to the other." He cites immigration restrictions and expectations of changes to the deficit
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 7d
Cook may have notched another win in her legal battle with Trump over his attempt to oust her as a Fed governor, but the threat to independence won't fade anytime soon

"It’s a time to exhale but not breathe easy," says @petercontibrown.bsky.social

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/b... @nytimes.com
Fed’s Independence Remains at Risk Despite Temporary Legal Victory
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 8d
Another victory for Lisa Cook in her lawsuit against Trump, who is trying to remover her as a Fed governor over allegations of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court rules she can stay on in her role as the case is being litigated
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 8d
The Fed was already facing a tough decision about how quickly to lower rates this year. But that judgment call is set to get much harder if the shutdown deprives the central bank of essential data that help it gauge the state of the economy www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/b... @nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 14d
"You’re throwing money at a country that essentially has exhausted its ability to borrow from the IMF," says CFR's Brad Setser of the US lifeline to Argentina, a serial defaulter
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u... @nytimes.com
Trump Wades Into Bailout Politics in Offering a Lifeline to Argentina
www.nytimes.com
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Reposted by Colby Smith
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 14d
NYT: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that if New York City needed a federal bailout” under .. Mamdani, .. “Drop dead”.

“.. But Argentina is a different story.”

@colbylsmith.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 14d
"People don't feel the need to move urgently, and part of that is because they're still very scared of tariff inflation, Miran says of his Fed colleagues. He calls for rates to be quickly lowered by 150-200bps even as he expects ~3% growth in 2026
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16d
During this Q&A, Powell is emphasizing the risks posed to the labor market. He suggests it is no longer accurate to describe the labor market as "solid" and that we are in a "low fire, low hire" environment
colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16d
In a speech on Tuesday, Powell underscores the "challenging situation" the Fed finds itself in as its officials debate how quickly to lower interest rates without stoking inflation or worsening a weakening labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/b... @nytimes.com
Powell Stresses ‘Challenging Situation’ for Fed as Rate Debate Intensifies
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16d
In a speech on Tuesday, Powell underscores the "challenging situation" the Fed finds itself in as its officials debate how quickly to lower interest rates without stoking inflation or worsening a weakening labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/b... @nytimes.com
Powell Stresses ‘Challenging Situation’ for Fed as Rate Debate Intensifies
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17d
"I'm not panicky," said Miran during the Q&A. Rather he said the risks grow the longer interest rates stay too restrictive
colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17d
In his first speech as a member of the Board of Governors, Stephen Miran said interest rates should be roughly 2 percentage points below current levels, or around 2.5 percent nytimes.com/2025/09/22/b... @nytimes.com
Trump’s Fed Pick Outlines Case for Slashing Interest Rates
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17d
In his first speech as a member of the Board of Governors, Stephen Miran said interest rates should be roughly 2 percentage points below current levels, or around 2.5 percent nytimes.com/2025/09/22/b... @nytimes.com
Trump’s Fed Pick Outlines Case for Slashing Interest Rates
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 21d
The latest dot plot underscored the tough bind the Fed finds itself in, with inflation moving away from target, the labor market wobbly and politics in play. Officials can’t address both economic risks, and resolving one typically jeopardizes the other www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/b... @nytimes.com
Fed Faces No Good Options as Labor Market Wobbles While Inflation Firms
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22d
The Fed's meeting today is a pivotal one, not least for all of the unusual dynamics leading up to it involving Miran and Cook's attendance. The focus will be on the dot plot and whether this cut is the first in a series this year www.nytimes.com/2025/09/17/b... @nytimes.com
What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s September Meeting
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 23d
Fed officials are gathering today for a meeting unlike any other. It’s the first day on the job for Miran, who will vote despite missing all the briefings. Cook, meanwhile, has spent weeks defending her right to participate after taking Trump to court www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/b... @nytimes.com
Fed Meeting Set to Bring Together Trump Ally With Targets of President’s Ire
www.nytimes.com
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 23d
NEW: The appeals court sides with Lisa Cook, the Fed governor at the heart of Trump's attacks on the central bank, confirming that she will attend this week's meeting and vote on interest rates.
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colbylsmith.bsky.social
Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 24d
Inside the Fed, there is a preoccupation with doing whatever possible to avoid provoking Trump, which at times has meant complying with his wishes. That cautious approach is drawing scrutiny as its independence comes under threat
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social
The Fed Tried to Avoid a Fight With Trump. It Got One Anyway.
www.nytimes.com
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