Ben Casselman
@bencasselman.bsky.social
Chief Economics Correspondent for The New York Times. Adjunct at CUNY Newmark. Ex: FiveThirtyEight, WSJ. He/him.
Email: [email protected]
Signal: @bencasselman.96
📸: Earl Wilson/NYT
Email: [email protected]
Signal: @bencasselman.96
📸: Earl Wilson/NYT
Reposted by Ben Casselman
For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine accrued interest
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Inflation Traders to Use Untested Fallbacks for Missing CPI
The $7 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation will employ fallback mechanisms for the first time after the longest government shutdown in history derailed economic data collection.
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 6:17 PM
For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine accrued interest
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Shoutout to everyone who's going to get to spend Thanksgiving fixing their code so it doesn't break when it hits an NA for October.
BREAKING: BLS says it will not publish an October CPI. November CPI will be delayed to Dec. 18, meaning too late for the FOMC meeting the previous week. #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
www.bls.gov
November 21, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Shoutout to everyone who's going to get to spend Thanksgiving fixing their code so it doesn't break when it hits an NA for October.
BREAKING: BLS says it will not publish an October CPI. November CPI will be delayed to Dec. 18, meaning too late for the FOMC meeting the previous week. #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations
www.bls.gov
November 21, 2025 at 4:33 PM
BREAKING: BLS says it will not publish an October CPI. November CPI will be delayed to Dec. 18, meaning too late for the FOMC meeting the previous week. #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...
The delay in the data did have one benefit: more survey responses! The collection rate for the establishment survey topped 80% in September, far above the recent average for the first release. Though still below the ~90% that is typical for the second release.
#NumbersDay
#NumbersDay
November 20, 2025 at 2:40 PM
The delay in the data did have one benefit: more survey responses! The collection rate for the establishment survey topped 80% in September, far above the recent average for the first release. Though still below the ~90% that is typical for the second release.
#NumbersDay
#NumbersDay
OK but this is the genuine big news in today's release:
"Effective with the release of January 2026 data, the establishment survey will change the birth-death model by incorporating current sample information each month." #NumbersDay
"Effective with the release of January 2026 data, the establishment survey will change the birth-death model by incorporating current sample information each month." #NumbersDay
Finally, some data!
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
Employment Situation Summary
- 2025 M09 Results
www.bls.gov
November 20, 2025 at 1:32 PM
OK but this is the genuine big news in today's release:
"Effective with the release of January 2026 data, the establishment survey will change the birth-death model by incorporating current sample information each month." #NumbersDay
"Effective with the release of January 2026 data, the establishment survey will change the birth-death model by incorporating current sample information each month." #NumbersDay
Finally, some data!
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
Employment Situation Summary
- 2025 M09 Results
www.bls.gov
November 20, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Finally, some data!
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/bu...
#NumbersDay
Reposted by Ben Casselman
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
Former Fed Official Violated Trading Rules, Disclosures Show
www.nytimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 3:44 PM
NEW: Adriana Kugler, who abruptly left the Fed, repeatedly violated the central bank’s trading rules.
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
New disclosures show trades in individual stocks, like Apple, Southwest Airlines and Cava, many of which took place during the blackout period ahead of policy votes www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/b...
November 14, 2025 at 8:09 PM
The shutdown is over. The data drought is not.
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
A Reopened Government Hasn’t Ended Delays for Economic Data
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 6:15 PM
The shutdown is over. The data drought is not.
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
What we know (and mostly don't) about when the data flow will resume, what we'll never get, and what the lasting damage could be:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/14/b... #EconSky
This is tonight! Hope to see some of you there.
I'm honored to be delivering the annual Ellen C. Gstalder Memorial Lecture at Georgetown next week. I'm talking about what A.I. will mean for the job market. And since the real answer is "I have no idea," I'll be looking at it through a historical lens.
Details: events.georgetown.edu/event/35638-...
Details: events.georgetown.edu/event/35638-...
November 13, 2025 at 12:23 PM
This is tonight! Hope to see some of you there.
Reposted by Ben Casselman
Forgot until just now that this is one of those years when the CPS reference week for November comes early. Is this week. www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
Concepts and Definitions (CPS)
Concepts and Definitions (CPS)
www.bls.gov
November 7, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Forgot until just now that this is one of those years when the CPS reference week for November comes early. Is this week. www.bls.gov/cps/definiti...
I'm honored to be delivering the annual Ellen C. Gstalder Memorial Lecture at Georgetown next week. I'm talking about what A.I. will mean for the job market. And since the real answer is "I have no idea," I'll be looking at it through a historical lens.
Details: events.georgetown.edu/event/35638-...
Details: events.georgetown.edu/event/35638-...
November 7, 2025 at 2:42 PM
I'm honored to be delivering the annual Ellen C. Gstalder Memorial Lecture at Georgetown next week. I'm talking about what A.I. will mean for the job market. And since the real answer is "I have no idea," I'll be looking at it through a historical lens.
Details: events.georgetown.edu/event/35638-...
Details: events.georgetown.edu/event/35638-...
We did get *some* data today: Jobless claims increased slightly in the final week of October. But the four-week average actually fell. Still no sign of a surge in layoffs in these numbers. #NumbersDay
November 7, 2025 at 2:36 PM
We did get *some* data today: Jobless claims increased slightly in the final week of October. But the four-week average actually fell. Still no sign of a surge in layoffs in these numbers. #NumbersDay
It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market.
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
November 7, 2025 at 1:34 PM
It's #jobsday! Except it isn't, because of the government shutdown. Which means that we're left sifting through alternative data sources to try to figure out what's going on in the labor market.
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
So, what are those sources telling us? A 🧵:
AP calls it for Mamdani.
November 5, 2025 at 2:36 AM
AP calls it for Mamdani.
Reposted by Ben Casselman
We should be cautious in interpreting claims filings right now, several hundred thousand people have been fired from the federal govt but most will be ineligible for UI because layoffs were either structured as voluntary deferred resignations (Fork in the Road) or for cause (provisional workers)
We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky
November 3, 2025 at 6:59 PM
We should be cautious in interpreting claims filings right now, several hundred thousand people have been fired from the federal govt but most will be ineligible for UI because layoffs were either structured as voluntary deferred resignations (Fork in the Road) or for cause (provisional workers)
We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky
November 3, 2025 at 5:22 PM
We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky
Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts
www.nytimes.com
November 3, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Highly recommend @colbylsmith.bsky.social's interview with Steven Miran. She really pushes him to explain his thinking on interest rates, immigration, and other topics. (Whether you find his explanations credible is up to you.) #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...
Shohei and Vladdy both up in the 11th.
November 2, 2025 at 4:02 AM
Shohei and Vladdy both up in the 11th.
Let’s play another nine, shall we?
November 2, 2025 at 3:39 AM
Let’s play another nine, shall we?
Well, can’t say this isn’t dramatic.
November 2, 2025 at 3:31 AM
Well, can’t say this isn’t dramatic.
Long line to vote in Crown Heights, Brooklyn at noon on Saturday, for whatever prognostication value that carries (probably not much).
November 1, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Long line to vote in Crown Heights, Brooklyn at noon on Saturday, for whatever prognostication value that carries (probably not much).
Reposted by Ben Casselman
Since we are having another round of high profile layoff discourse this week (with ‘blame AI’ to spice things up):
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
October 30, 2025 at 3:51 AM
Since we are having another round of high profile layoff discourse this week (with ‘blame AI’ to spice things up):
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
1/ High profile mass layoffs have been the “kid who cried wolf” for the last few years.
Maybe this is changing but we don’t see it, yet, in the data.
Powell says there were “strongly differing views about how to proceed in December" and that another cut is "not a foregone conclusion."
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for a second straight meeting, as widely expected.
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...
Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Live Updates: Fed to Set Rates With Shutdown Obscuring View of the Economy
www.nytimes.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Powell says there were “strongly differing views about how to proceed in December" and that another cut is "not a foregone conclusion."