Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
US Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended January 10, 2026. Excluding the Thanksgiving quirk, this is the lowest level since Jan 2024.
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
January 15, 2026 at 1:57 PM
US Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended January 10, 2026. Excluding the Thanksgiving quirk, this is the lowest level since Jan 2024.
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
« Foreign student enrollment at US universities fell this fall for the first time in three years after immigration clamp down… decline was driven by graduate student programs, where enrollment fell by 6% »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Foreign Enrollment on US Campuses Drops For First Time in Years
Foreign student enrollment at US universities fell this fall for the first time in three years after the Trump administration clamped down on immigration and took aim at a bevy of elite schools.
www.bloomberg.com
January 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM
« Foreign student enrollment at US universities fell this fall for the first time in three years after immigration clamp down… decline was driven by graduate student programs, where enrollment fell by 6% »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted by Gregory Daco
Exclusive: President Trump told Reuters he has no plans to fire Jerome Powell despite a Justice Department criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, but it was 'too early' to say what he would ultimately do reut.rs/49BNHTr
January 15, 2026 at 1:19 AM
Exclusive: President Trump told Reuters he has no plans to fire Jerome Powell despite a Justice Department criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, but it was 'too early' to say what he would ultimately do reut.rs/49BNHTr
China’s exports ended last year with a growth spurt and sent its trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a boom that’s seen factories escape Donald Trump’s tariffs by making deeper inroads into markets beyond the US.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 15, 2026 at 1:32 AM
China’s exports ended last year with a growth spurt and sent its trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a boom that’s seen factories escape Donald Trump’s tariffs by making deeper inroads into markets beyond the US.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The economic toll of Trump’s policies will soon be visible writes @adamposen.bsky.social @piie.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The Economic Toll of Trump’s Policies Will Soon Be Visible
Mainstream economists have underestimated the cost of all the confusion the administration has unleashed, particularly on trade and immigration.
www.bloomberg.com
January 14, 2026 at 7:34 PM
The economic toll of Trump’s policies will soon be visible writes @adamposen.bsky.social @piie.com
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US PPI #inflation firmed in November despite a notable margin squeeze induced by tariffs
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
January 14, 2026 at 2:23 PM
US PPI #inflation firmed in November despite a notable margin squeeze induced by tariffs
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
🇺🇸 #Retail sales surprise to the upside in November
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
January 14, 2026 at 1:54 PM
🇺🇸 #Retail sales surprise to the upside in November
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
Central bank chiefs ‘stand in full solidarity’ with Jay Powell
January 13, 2026 at 3:50 PM
Central bank chiefs ‘stand in full solidarity’ with Jay Powell
US CPI #inflation mixed but generally subdued in Dec
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
January 13, 2026 at 1:44 PM
US CPI #inflation mixed but generally subdued in Dec
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
« Jeanine Pirro didn’t seek sign-off from her bosses at the Justice Department before subpoenaing the Federal Reserve and has no plans to back down »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 13, 2026 at 2:37 AM
« Jeanine Pirro didn’t seek sign-off from her bosses at the Justice Department before subpoenaing the Federal Reserve and has no plans to back down »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
« Did anyone think that Powell would go quietly? If so, they don’t understand the man, his integrity and his commitment to the Fed’s independence » writes Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Attacking Powell Only Undercuts Trump’s Goals
If President Donald Trump thinks piling pressure on the Federal Reserve will further his goal oflowering interest rates and stimulating economic growth, he should think again. On the contrary, it’s li...
www.bloomberg.com
January 12, 2026 at 4:13 PM
« Did anyone think that Powell would go quietly? If so, they don’t understand the man, his integrity and his commitment to the Fed’s independence » writes Bill Dudley, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Shares in US credit card issuers slide after Trump calls for 10% rate cap
January 12, 2026 at 2:24 PM
Shares in US credit card issuers slide after Trump calls for 10% rate cap
For years, Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded to President Trump’s broadsides in ways that generally avoided escalation. That changed on Sunday night, writes Nick Timiraos.
January 12, 2026 at 2:07 PM
For years, Fed Chair Jerome Powell responded to President Trump’s broadsides in ways that generally avoided escalation. That changed on Sunday night, writes Nick Timiraos.
Statement from #Fed Chair #Powell
"This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
"This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
January 12, 2026 at 2:11 AM
Statement from #Fed Chair #Powell
"This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
"This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation"
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
The Fed received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment relating to Chair Powell’s testimony last summer about the central bank’s building renovation project
January 12, 2026 at 12:55 AM
The Fed received grand jury subpoenas from the Justice Department on Friday that threaten a criminal indictment relating to Chair Powell’s testimony last summer about the central bank’s building renovation project
Reposted by Gregory Daco
DACO: “.. Don't be fooled... this is a weak US labor market
“.. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster ..”
@gregdaco.bsky.social
“.. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster ..”
@gregdaco.bsky.social
January 9, 2026 at 5:38 PM
DACO: “.. Don't be fooled... this is a weak US labor market
“.. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster ..”
@gregdaco.bsky.social
“.. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster ..”
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Don't be fooled... this is a weak US labor market
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
January 9, 2026 at 5:34 PM
Don't be fooled... this is a weak US labor market
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
Reposted by Gregory Daco
Trump posted this chart last night, which included today's jobs figures. The administration gets the data at 6pm on the day before the jobs release - but the data are supposed to be embargoed.
January 9, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Trump posted this chart last night, which included today's jobs figures. The administration gets the data at 6pm on the day before the jobs release - but the data are supposed to be embargoed.
US #Jobsreport Dec '25: Softness
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
January 9, 2026 at 2:04 PM
US #Jobsreport Dec '25: Softness
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
🚨The @newyorkfed.bsky.social perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job were lost fell by 4.2pts to 43.1%, reaching a new series low
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)
January 9, 2026 at 2:37 AM
🚨The @newyorkfed.bsky.social perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job were lost fell by 4.2pts to 43.1%, reaching a new series low
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)