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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
2.5K followers 240 following 1.2K posts
Chief Economist @ EY EY-Parthenon Vice President @ NABE Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit Judo Black Belt. Football player (the real one). Once-a-year triathlete. Belgian heart. American mind. Father of 3. Husband of one.
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 11h
🇧🇪 🤝 🇺🇸
governor.ca.gov
Governor Gavin Newsom @governor.ca.gov · 1d
Proud to welcome Her Royal Highness Princess Astrid, Princess of Belgium, as part of the nation's largest trade mission to California.

There’s no better place to do business than right here in California — the world’s fourth-largest economy.
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 17h
« Donald Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy troops to American cities, intensifying a stand-off with Democratic-led states resisting his use of the military on US soil. »

on.ft.com/4mMqp1z
Donald Trump threatens to invoke 200-year-old Insurrection Act to deploy troops
Warning to use 19th century law comes as president faces legal setbacks in bid to put soldiers on streets of US cities
on.ft.com
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 18h
🇺🇸 @newyorkfed.bsky.social inflation expectations rose slightly in September
➡️3.4%: 1-year-ahead (+0.2pt)
➡️3.0%: 3-year ahead (flat)
➡️3.0%: 5-year ahead (+0.1pt)

⚠️Modest upward pressure from #tariffs on #Inflation expectations, but no surge
⚠️Different from volatile UMich sentiment
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 4d
In the absence of hard data during this government shutdown, we're forced to rely more on soft data (sentiment).

Being conscious of the disconnect between how people feel and how they act, these activity gauges don't indicate much momentum going into Q4.
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 4d
The inflation sentiment amongst service sector purchasing managers is concerning
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 4d
Purchasing managers report **starting** to feel the hit from tariffs and supply chain delays. The number one concern across sectors is rising costs (food, materials, pharma, equipment, retail, etc.). Outside of the AI-influenced segments, demand is weak & economic concerns are growing.
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 4d
🚨It's the only data we got, and it's not pretty...

📉Weak #services activity in September pointing to subdued outlook

⚠️@ISM Services 50 (🔻2pt)
⛔️Activity 49.9 (🔻5.1pt): low since May 2020!
⚠️New Orders 50.4 (🔻5.6pt)
⛔️Employment 47.2 (🔼0.7pt)
⛔️Backlogs 47.3 (🔼6.9pt)
🔥Inflation 69.4 (🔺0.2pt)
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Reposted by Gregory Daco
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d
RSM: If the shutdown lasts into the BLS reference week (Oct 12-18), “furloughed workers would be counted as unemployed, which would send the unemployment rate higher, toward 4.5% to 4.7%.”

@joebrusuelas.bsky.social
18 190 530
gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
US ISM #Manufacturing: Purchasing managers report "depressed" business conditions (#tariffs)

⛔️ISM Manufacturing 49.1 (🔼0.4pt)
⛔️New Orders 48.9 (🔻2.5pt)
✔️Production 51.0 (🔼3.2pt)
⛔️Employment 45.3 (🔼1.5pt)
⛔️Backlogs 46.2 (🔼1.5pt)
🔥Inflation 61.9 (🔽1.8pt)
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
My take: While the absence of data would suggest a cautious approach to policymaking, the #Fed’s data dependence will likely push many policymakers to over index private-sector indicators like private sector payrolls, business sentiment surveys, and consumer sentiment gauges
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
The Fed was already facing a tough decision about how quickly to lower rates this year. But that judgment call is set to get much harder if the shutdown deprives the central bank of essential data that help it gauge the state of the economy www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/b... @colbylsmith.bsky.social
Shutdown Puts a Divided Fed in a Perilous Position
www.nytimes.com
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
George illustrates how the initial ADP print has a low R^2=0.02 (correlation) with private sector nonfarm payrolls over last 3 years.👇
bsky.app/profile/pear...
peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 6d
Here's the same chart as earlier but updated with the latest data and only looking at private NFP. Still basically useless to use as a forecast for any given month.
Chart showing relationship between ADP as-released and private non-farm payrolls as-released, as well as ADP as-released and private non-farm payrolls (current revised level)
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
US weak private sector employment: -32k via
ADP in September

⚠️Don't use this as a guide to nonfarm payrolls

Key insights:
🔻Job losses for small & medium-side biz
🔻Manufacturing & construction weakness
🔻Leisure, prof biz svc, trade, finance hurting
✅ Healthcare is fragile pillar
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Reposted by Gregory Daco
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 7d
#JOLTS
gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
⚖️Fewer job openings than unemployed!

Job openings per unemployed has fallen from above 2 in 2022 to 0.98 in August 2025

⚠️Post-Covid low
⚠️More unemployed than openings for first time since April 2021
⚠️**Below** 1.25-1.30 range in 2018-19
⚠️Risk: a tilt toward imbalance
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
A US #governmentshutdown isn’t just politics—it halts paychecks for some 800,000 federal workers, delays economic data, hits small biz, erodes confidence & could spark market volatility.

In today’s fragile economy, it amplifies downside risks. 👇

www.ey.com/en_us/insigh...
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
on.ft.com/3KtPTDF Donald Trump pulls ally EJ Antoni’s nomination to lead statistics agency
Donald Trump pulls ally EJ Antoni’s nomination to lead statistics agency
White House also drops bid to name Brian Quintenz as chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
on.ft.com
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 6d
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Begins Government Shutdown With Trump, Democrats at Impasse
Congress blew past a midnight funding deadline, triggering the US government’s first shutdown in nearly seven years — and the third under President Donald Trump.
www.bloomberg.com
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
« President Donald Trump told top military brass that the US is fighting an “invasion from within…”

“We should use some of these dangerous cities as training grounds for our military,” Trump said. »

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Hegseth Uses Key Speech to Focus on Culture War, Wokeness
President Donald Trump told top military brass that the US is fighting an “invasion from within,” as he used a highly unusual gathering of officers stationed around the world to deliver a largely poli...
www.bloomberg.com
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
Sharp deterioration in consumer morale: The Conference Board
US consumer confidence index fell 3.6pt to 94.2 in September: 16% below December

🔻Present situation -5.3% (2nd lowest post Covid)
🔻Expectations -1.7%

⚠️Depressed with perception of job availability & income weakening
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
Looking forward to a rich conversation with @adamposen.bsky.social on the EY Parthenon Global Economic Outlook Webcast
adamposen.bsky.social
Adam Posen @adamposen.bsky.social · 7d
Starting soon 11a ET Live Webcast of Global Economic Outlook with @gregdaco.bsky.social and Ashley Costa
We will discuss:
Global fragmentation
US fiscal tightrope: shutdown and beyond
Immigration drag
US inflation reacceleration
Fed policy and independence
www.ey.com/en_us/media/...
Global Economic Outlook: Navigating diverging markets
In this webcast, panelists discuss the global economy, inflation, trade tensions, regional shifts, and strategies for building resilience.
www.ey.com
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
⚖️Fewer job openings than unemployed!

Job openings per unemployed has fallen from above 2 in 2022 to 0.98 in August 2025

⚠️Post-Covid low
⚠️More unemployed than openings for first time since April 2021
⚠️**Below** 1.25-1.30 range in 2018-19
⚠️Risk: a tilt toward imbalance
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
🚨Labor flow indicators are near decade lows!

Businesses have implemented hiring freezes while employees seek comfort in "job hugging"

⚠️Hiring rate: 3.2% (-0.1pt) 🆚 4.3%

⚠️Quits rate: 1.9% (-0.1pt) 🆚 2.6%

⚠️Openings rate: 4.3% (flat) 🆚 4.5%
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
🇺🇸August #JOLTS: "No-hire no-fire" is an uncomfortable balance

🔼Job openings: 7.2mn (+19k): near lowest post-Covid

🔻Hiring: 5.1mn (-114k): 2nd lowest post-Covid

🔻Quits: 3.1mn (-75k): 2nd lowest post-Covid

🔽Layoff: 1.7mn (-62k): trending up gently (for now)
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
US Economy Will Only Get Murkier If Key Data Is Delayed in Shutdown

“You don’t want to be flying blind in a foggy environment,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY

bloomberg.com/news/article...
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gregdaco.bsky.social
Gregory Daco @gregdaco.bsky.social · 7d
Macro Strength, Micro Stress: Bridging the Divide

In this newsletter, I unpack the growing disconnect between apparent macro resilience & micro strains — from fractured consumer behavior & supply side challenges to the rising risk of a government shutdown

www.linkedin.com/pulse/macro-...
Macro Strength, Micro Stress: Bridging the Divide
Hello friends, Last month, I answered some of the most common questions we get from C-suite executives around the macroeconomic landscape, focusing on tariffs, inflation and the artificial intelligenc...
www.linkedin.com
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