Gregory Daco
@gregdaco.bsky.social
Chief Economist @EY @EY-Parthenon
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
President @National Association for Business Economics
Previously @OxfordEconomics @IHSMarkit
Judo Black Belt
Football player & @ManCity fan
Once-a-year triathlete
Belgian heart. American mind.
Father of 3. Husband of one
🇺🇸Industrial #production up 0.4% in December
🟠#Manufacturing +0.2% m/m
🟠Durables +0.1%: primary metals (+2.4%), electrical eqpmt (+1.7%) aerospace (+1.5%) but autos (-1.1%)
🟠Nondurables +0.3%: more petroleum but less textile & apparel
🛑Mining -0.7%
✅Utilities 2.6% 🥶
🟠#Manufacturing +0.2% m/m
🟠Durables +0.1%: primary metals (+2.4%), electrical eqpmt (+1.7%) aerospace (+1.5%) but autos (-1.1%)
🟠Nondurables +0.3%: more petroleum but less textile & apparel
🛑Mining -0.7%
✅Utilities 2.6% 🥶
January 16, 2026 at 2:25 PM
🇺🇸Industrial #production up 0.4% in December
🟠#Manufacturing +0.2% m/m
🟠Durables +0.1%: primary metals (+2.4%), electrical eqpmt (+1.7%) aerospace (+1.5%) but autos (-1.1%)
🟠Nondurables +0.3%: more petroleum but less textile & apparel
🛑Mining -0.7%
✅Utilities 2.6% 🥶
🟠#Manufacturing +0.2% m/m
🟠Durables +0.1%: primary metals (+2.4%), electrical eqpmt (+1.7%) aerospace (+1.5%) but autos (-1.1%)
🟠Nondurables +0.3%: more petroleum but less textile & apparel
🛑Mining -0.7%
✅Utilities 2.6% 🥶
It don't matter how you slice it, wage growth is pretty much back to "normal"
Chart via @atlantafed.org
Chart via @atlantafed.org
January 15, 2026 at 10:51 PM
It don't matter how you slice it, wage growth is pretty much back to "normal"
Chart via @atlantafed.org
Chart via @atlantafed.org
Continuing claims down about 3.5% from last November. Despite historically low hiring rate, we're not seeing a surge in layoffs. It's a frozen labor market experiencing a historical negative supply show and softening labor demand.
January 15, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Continuing claims down about 3.5% from last November. Despite historically low hiring rate, we're not seeing a surge in layoffs. It's a frozen labor market experiencing a historical negative supply show and softening labor demand.
US Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended January 10, 2026. Excluding the Thanksgiving quirk, this is the lowest level since Jan 2024.
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
January 15, 2026 at 1:57 PM
US Initial claims for #unemployment fell back in week-ended January 10, 2026. Excluding the Thanksgiving quirk, this is the lowest level since Jan 2024.
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
📉Claims: 198k (-9k)
📉4-wk avg: 205k (-7k)
China’s exports ended last year with a growth spurt and sent its trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a boom that’s seen factories escape Donald Trump’s tariffs by making deeper inroads into markets beyond the US.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 15, 2026 at 1:32 AM
China’s exports ended last year with a growth spurt and sent its trade surplus to a record $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a boom that’s seen factories escape Donald Trump’s tariffs by making deeper inroads into markets beyond the US.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
❗️Inflation is firming because of tariffs but transmission onto consumers is buffered by margin squeeze
🔶PPI #inflation: 3.0% y/y (+0.2pt) in November
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🔶Core PPI 3.5% y/y (+0.1pt)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
🔶PPI #inflation: 3.0% y/y (+0.2pt) in November
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🔶Core PPI 3.5% y/y (+0.1pt)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
January 14, 2026 at 2:37 PM
❗️Inflation is firming because of tariffs but transmission onto consumers is buffered by margin squeeze
🔶PPI #inflation: 3.0% y/y (+0.2pt) in November
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🔶Core PPI 3.5% y/y (+0.1pt)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
🔶PPI #inflation: 3.0% y/y (+0.2pt) in November
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22
🔶Core PPI 3.5% y/y (+0.1pt)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22
Key take-aways:
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (80% with 50% from gasoline)
📈 #Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups are under pressure with a notable squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (80% with 50% from gasoline)
📈 #Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups are under pressure with a notable squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
January 14, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Key take-aways:
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (80% with 50% from gasoline)
📈 #Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups are under pressure with a notable squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (80% with 50% from gasoline)
📈 #Tariffs passthrough building via core goods
💡Business markups are under pressure with a notable squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)
US PPI #inflation firmed in November despite a notable margin squeeze induced by tariffs
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
January 14, 2026 at 2:23 PM
US PPI #inflation firmed in November despite a notable margin squeeze induced by tariffs
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
✅Headline #PPI +0.2%
📈Core +0.2%
🟠Gds +0.9%
🍳Food 0%
⛽️Energy 4.6%
📊Core 0.2%
✅Services +0%
🚚Transport 0.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.8%
📈Inflation
🔶PPI: 3.0%
🔶Core: 3.5%
While the #holiday season may have looked “jolly” in nominal terms, the volume data tell a slightly more sobering story.
Retail spending appears to be driven by smaller baskets and higher ticket prices, with real retail sales cooling to just 0.6% year over year in November.
Retail spending appears to be driven by smaller baskets and higher ticket prices, with real retail sales cooling to just 0.6% year over year in November.
January 14, 2026 at 2:12 PM
While the #holiday season may have looked “jolly” in nominal terms, the volume data tell a slightly more sobering story.
Retail spending appears to be driven by smaller baskets and higher ticket prices, with real retail sales cooling to just 0.6% year over year in November.
Retail spending appears to be driven by smaller baskets and higher ticket prices, with real retail sales cooling to just 0.6% year over year in November.
US consumers are still spending despite depressed sentiment and a softening labor market.
Part of it is a skew toward higher-income families, part of it is a willingness to use more credit, and part of it is greater use of savings to finance outlays.
Part of it is a skew toward higher-income families, part of it is a willingness to use more credit, and part of it is greater use of savings to finance outlays.
January 14, 2026 at 2:01 PM
US consumers are still spending despite depressed sentiment and a softening labor market.
Part of it is a skew toward higher-income families, part of it is a willingness to use more credit, and part of it is greater use of savings to finance outlays.
Part of it is a skew toward higher-income families, part of it is a willingness to use more credit, and part of it is greater use of savings to finance outlays.
🇺🇸 #Retail sales surprise to the upside in November
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
January 14, 2026 at 1:54 PM
🇺🇸 #Retail sales surprise to the upside in November
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
✅Sales +0.6%
✅Inflation-adjust 0.4%
✅Core 0.4%
✅Volumes 0.3%
⚽️Sport 1.9%
⛽️Gas 1.4%
🏠Build mat 1.3%
🚗Auto 1.0%
👗Cloth 0.9%
👩🍳Rest/bar 0.6%
💻Online 0.4%
⚕️Health 0.3%
🛒Groc 0.1%
🎮Elec 0%
🏬Merch 0%
🛋️Furn -0.1%
US #Inflation dynamics subdued but weighed down by government shutdown drag w/ 2 forces opposing: tariffs & shelter
✅Headline CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.7% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3-mo: 3.6% (flat)
✅Core CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.6% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3mo: 3.6% (flat)
✅Headline CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.7% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3-mo: 3.6% (flat)
✅Core CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.6% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3mo: 3.6% (flat)
January 13, 2026 at 2:03 PM
US #Inflation dynamics subdued but weighed down by government shutdown drag w/ 2 forces opposing: tariffs & shelter
✅Headline CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.7% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3-mo: 3.6% (flat)
✅Core CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.6% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3mo: 3.6% (flat)
✅Headline CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.7% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3-mo: 3.6% (flat)
✅Core CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.6% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3mo: 3.6% (flat)
#Inflation steady in December amidst gradual & uneven #tariff passthrough, offset from easing shelter cost inflation & downward bias from gov shutdown
📊Headline #CPI inflation 2.7% (flat)
🟠+0.4pt vs. post-pandemic low
📊Core #CPI flat 2.6% (flat)
✅Post-pandemic low
📊Headline #CPI inflation 2.7% (flat)
🟠+0.4pt vs. post-pandemic low
📊Core #CPI flat 2.6% (flat)
✅Post-pandemic low
January 13, 2026 at 1:52 PM
#Inflation steady in December amidst gradual & uneven #tariff passthrough, offset from easing shelter cost inflation & downward bias from gov shutdown
📊Headline #CPI inflation 2.7% (flat)
🟠+0.4pt vs. post-pandemic low
📊Core #CPI flat 2.6% (flat)
✅Post-pandemic low
📊Headline #CPI inflation 2.7% (flat)
🟠+0.4pt vs. post-pandemic low
📊Core #CPI flat 2.6% (flat)
✅Post-pandemic low
US CPI #inflation mixed but generally subdued in Dec
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
January 13, 2026 at 1:44 PM
US CPI #inflation mixed but generally subdued in Dec
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
📈#CPI +0.3%
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0.7%
⛽️Energy +0.3%
✅Core gds 0%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -1.1%
👕Apparel 0.6%
✅Core svc 0.3%
🏘️Shelter 0.4%
🏡Rent 0.3%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 3.5%
🏥Med 0.4%
🛫Air 5.2%
📜Car insur -0.4%
« Jeanine Pirro didn’t seek sign-off from her bosses at the Justice Department before subpoenaing the Federal Reserve and has no plans to back down »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 13, 2026 at 2:37 AM
« Jeanine Pirro didn’t seek sign-off from her bosses at the Justice Department before subpoenaing the Federal Reserve and has no plans to back down »
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Don't be fooled... this is a weak US labor market
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
January 9, 2026 at 5:34 PM
Don't be fooled... this is a weak US labor market
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
⚠️The labor market is under significant pressure from conflicting crosscurrents. Labor supply has taken a meaningful hit from aging demographics and a historic drop in #immigration, but labor demand has been weakening even faster
🔴Private sector employment has increased 300k since April...
But...
🔻Excluding healthcare, private sector employment has *declined* 148k
But...
🔻Excluding healthcare, private sector employment has *declined* 148k
January 9, 2026 at 2:31 PM
🔴Private sector employment has increased 300k since April...
But...
🔻Excluding healthcare, private sector employment has *declined* 148k
But...
🔻Excluding healthcare, private sector employment has *declined* 148k
🔶 Fragile labor market foundation
👀Healthcare has outpaced private employment in 7 of last 9 months since April
🔶Whereas there were 3 sectors driving job growth for most of 2025 -- healthcare, leisure and hospitality and state and local governments -- there are now only 2
👀Healthcare has outpaced private employment in 7 of last 9 months since April
🔶Whereas there were 3 sectors driving job growth for most of 2025 -- healthcare, leisure and hospitality and state and local governments -- there are now only 2
January 9, 2026 at 2:16 PM
🔶 Fragile labor market foundation
👀Healthcare has outpaced private employment in 7 of last 9 months since April
🔶Whereas there were 3 sectors driving job growth for most of 2025 -- healthcare, leisure and hospitality and state and local governments -- there are now only 2
👀Healthcare has outpaced private employment in 7 of last 9 months since April
🔶Whereas there were 3 sectors driving job growth for most of 2025 -- healthcare, leisure and hospitality and state and local governments -- there are now only 2
⚠️Jobs gain diffusion across private payrolls fell back closer to recessionary levels
🟠Underlying fragility with job growth concentration in only 2 sectors: healthcare and leisure & hospitality. They combined for +86k relative to a +37k gain in private sector.
🟠Underlying fragility with job growth concentration in only 2 sectors: healthcare and leisure & hospitality. They combined for +86k relative to a +37k gain in private sector.
January 9, 2026 at 2:05 PM
⚠️Jobs gain diffusion across private payrolls fell back closer to recessionary levels
🟠Underlying fragility with job growth concentration in only 2 sectors: healthcare and leisure & hospitality. They combined for +86k relative to a +37k gain in private sector.
🟠Underlying fragility with job growth concentration in only 2 sectors: healthcare and leisure & hospitality. They combined for +86k relative to a +37k gain in private sector.
Let's take a deeper look at this #jobsreport...
🔴3-mo average: -22k/month: down for 3 consecutive months
🔴6-mo average: +15/month: near post-pandemic low
🔴12-mo average: +49k/month: post-pandemic low
🔴3-mo average: -22k/month: down for 3 consecutive months
🔴6-mo average: +15/month: near post-pandemic low
🔴12-mo average: +49k/month: post-pandemic low
January 9, 2026 at 2:05 PM
Let's take a deeper look at this #jobsreport...
🔴3-mo average: -22k/month: down for 3 consecutive months
🔴6-mo average: +15/month: near post-pandemic low
🔴12-mo average: +49k/month: post-pandemic low
🔴3-mo average: -22k/month: down for 3 consecutive months
🔴6-mo average: +15/month: near post-pandemic low
🔴12-mo average: +49k/month: post-pandemic low
US #Jobsreport Dec '25: Softness
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
January 9, 2026 at 2:04 PM
US #Jobsreport Dec '25: Softness
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
🟠Payrolls +50k
🟠Private +37k
🔻Gds -21k
🟠Services +58k
🟠Gov +13k
🔶Diffusion 51%
🚨Revisions Oct/Nov: -76k
🚨3-mo average: -22k
🔶2025 total: +584k (vs 2.0mn in '24)
🔻Hours -0.3%
🔽#Unemployment 4.4% (-0.1pt)
🔽Part rate 62.4%
📉Wages
✅+0.3% m/m
✅3.8% y/y
🚨The @newyorkfed.bsky.social perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job were lost fell by 4.2pts to 43.1%, reaching a new series low
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)
January 9, 2026 at 2:37 AM
🚨The @newyorkfed.bsky.social perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job were lost fell by 4.2pts to 43.1%, reaching a new series low
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)
📉Decline driven by older cohorts (>60yo), less educated cohorts (high school degree or less) & lower income (under $50k and under $100k)
The @atlantafed.org #GDP growth tracker surged to 5.4% in Q4 '25 following the Oct trade deficit plunge
Be very careful with this crude extrapolation:
- 90% of export surge from nonmonetary gold (NMG)
- some of imports decline was in NMG
- plunge in pharma imports to be offset by lower inventories
Be very careful with this crude extrapolation:
- 90% of export surge from nonmonetary gold (NMG)
- some of imports decline was in NMG
- plunge in pharma imports to be offset by lower inventories
January 8, 2026 at 8:01 PM
The @atlantafed.org #GDP growth tracker surged to 5.4% in Q4 '25 following the Oct trade deficit plunge
Be very careful with this crude extrapolation:
- 90% of export surge from nonmonetary gold (NMG)
- some of imports decline was in NMG
- plunge in pharma imports to be offset by lower inventories
Be very careful with this crude extrapolation:
- 90% of export surge from nonmonetary gold (NMG)
- some of imports decline was in NMG
- plunge in pharma imports to be offset by lower inventories
US Initial claims for #unemployment rose marginally in week-ended January 3, but low levels still. Continuing claims have also eased off of their 4-year high.
📈Claims: 208k (+8k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (-7k)
📈Claims: 208k (+8k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (-7k)
January 8, 2026 at 3:06 PM
US Initial claims for #unemployment rose marginally in week-ended January 3, but low levels still. Continuing claims have also eased off of their 4-year high.
📈Claims: 208k (+8k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (-7k)
📈Claims: 208k (+8k)
📉4-wk avg: 212k (-7k)