Continuing claims down about 3.5% from last November. Despite historically low hiring rate, we're not seeing a surge in layoffs. It's a frozen labor market experiencing a historical negative supply show and softening labor demand.

Exclusive: President Trump told Reuters he has no plans to fire Jerome Powell despite a Justice Department criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve chair, but it was 'too early' to say what he would ultimately do reut.rs/49BNHTr

❗️Inflation is firming because of tariffs but transmission onto consumers is buffered by margin squeeze

🔶PPI #inflation: 3.0% y/y (+0.2pt) in November
✅Down from 11.7% in Mar '22

🔶Core PPI 3.5% y/y (+0.1pt)
✅Down from 7.1% in Mar '22

Key take-aways:

⛽️Energy was a key swing factor (80% with 50% from gasoline)

📈 #Tariffs passthrough building via core goods

💡Business markups are under pressure with a notable squeeze in margins for final demand trade services (margins for retailers & wholesalers)

While the #holiday season may have looked “jolly” in nominal terms, the volume data tell a slightly more sobering story.

Retail spending appears to be driven by smaller baskets and higher ticket prices, with real retail sales cooling to just 0.6% year over year in November.

US consumers are still spending despite depressed sentiment and a softening labor market.

Part of it is a skew toward higher-income families, part of it is a willingness to use more credit, and part of it is greater use of savings to finance outlays.

US #Inflation dynamics subdued but weighed down by government shutdown drag w/ 2 forces opposing: tariffs & shelter

✅Headline CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.7% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3-mo: 3.6% (flat)

✅Core CPI
↔️12-mo: 2.6% (flat)
↔️6-mo: 3.0% (flat)
↔️3mo: 3.6% (flat)

#Inflation steady in December amidst gradual & uneven #tariff passthrough, offset from easing shelter cost inflation & downward bias from gov shutdown

📊Headline #CPI inflation 2.7% (flat)
🟠+0.4pt vs. post-pandemic low

📊Core #CPI flat 2.6% (flat)
✅Post-pandemic low