Guy Berger
@econberger.bsky.social
Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.
Pinned
in case you missed it, my recap of the BLS's dispatch from ancient labor market history (September's jobs report)
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
IMHO it’s ok for middle class and upper middle class people to complain and be grumpy and complain when stuff is expensive.
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
November 24, 2025 at 11:10 PM
IMHO it’s ok for middle class and upper middle class people to complain and be grumpy and complain when stuff is expensive.
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
There’s no need to manufacture moral justifications for it (“we’re really poor”; “people used to be more economically well off in a mythical past”)
I don’t think $140K makes sense as a poverty line
November 24, 2025 at 4:15 PM
I don’t think $140K makes sense as a poverty line
The FOMC’s inflation hawks have a man on in the inside at the White House:
November 23, 2025 at 9:51 PM
The FOMC’s inflation hawks have a man on in the inside at the White House:
Wow, Bessent warning the Fed that they’re facing a growing inflation problem!
Will be disappointing news to the President.
Will be disappointing news to the President.
November 23, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Wow, Bessent warning the Fed that they’re facing a growing inflation problem!
Will be disappointing news to the President.
Will be disappointing news to the President.
I’m seeing folks share this chart as evidence of the college grad crisis, but it’s *mostly* reflective of the fact that there are way more college grads than there used to be.
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
November 23, 2025 at 4:56 PM
I’m seeing folks share this chart as evidence of the college grad crisis, but it’s *mostly* reflective of the fact that there are way more college grads than there used to be.
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
More people with BAs => more unemployed with BAs
This view never gets old
November 22, 2025 at 11:10 PM
This view never gets old
in case you missed it, my recap of the BLS's dispatch from ancient labor market history (September's jobs report)
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
November 21, 2025 at 7:57 PM
in case you missed it, my recap of the BLS's dispatch from ancient labor market history (September's jobs report)
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/bls-jobs-r...
Quick easy way for policymakers to boost monthly employment growth:
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
November 21, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Quick easy way for policymakers to boost monthly employment growth:
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
Allow in a lot more immigrants and give them work authorization
The Indeed job postings data shows no acceleration in the pace of job market cooling through mid-November - if anything, there's a very small ongoing deceleration (i.e. cooling more slowly)
[Consistent with the claims data]
[Consistent with the claims data]
November 21, 2025 at 6:45 PM
The Indeed job postings data shows no acceleration in the pace of job market cooling through mid-November - if anything, there's a very small ongoing deceleration (i.e. cooling more slowly)
[Consistent with the claims data]
[Consistent with the claims data]
Reposted by Guy Berger
Several constraints, all binding:
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
November 21, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Several constraints, all binding:
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
1. You would have to redesign the questionnaire
2. You would have to redesign the tech infrastructure used in the field
3. There’s no staff, no time to do either one
4. Even if you could do it, somehow, you’d introduce a heavy amount of recall bias into the answers
1/ The supposed "college grad crisis" is a challenging labor market for young people of all educational levels, driven by cyclically weak hiring.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
November 21, 2025 at 5:58 PM
1/ The supposed "college grad crisis" is a challenging labor market for young people of all educational levels, driven by cyclically weak hiring.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate for HS grads in their late teens was 15.3%, the highest (ex-COVID) since April 2017.
The grok “malfunction” today was incredible
November 21, 2025 at 4:33 AM
The grok “malfunction” today was incredible
This is really good. Just a beautiful melody youtu.be/qp2eU6LUuNs?...
Leola
YouTube video by Roscoe Mitchell Quartet - Topic
youtu.be
November 21, 2025 at 2:52 AM
This is really good. Just a beautiful melody youtu.be/qp2eU6LUuNs?...
Why did the erroneous belief that data centers consume a lot of water become such a zombie idea?
November 20, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Why did the erroneous belief that data centers consume a lot of water become such a zombie idea?
Lots of discourse about falling manufacturing employment since the beginning of the year ignores the fact that manufacturing *production* is up
November 20, 2025 at 7:23 PM
Lots of discourse about falling manufacturing employment since the beginning of the year ignores the fact that manufacturing *production* is up
Some pedantic points on labor supply & demand:
1/ You can and should put a lot of the blame for weak *employment growth* on weak labor supply growth.
2/ You *cannot* blame a rising unemployment rate on weak supply. That's a case of demand weakening more than supply.
3/...
1/ You can and should put a lot of the blame for weak *employment growth* on weak labor supply growth.
2/ You *cannot* blame a rising unemployment rate on weak supply. That's a case of demand weakening more than supply.
3/...
November 20, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Some pedantic points on labor supply & demand:
1/ You can and should put a lot of the blame for weak *employment growth* on weak labor supply growth.
2/ You *cannot* blame a rising unemployment rate on weak supply. That's a case of demand weakening more than supply.
3/...
1/ You can and should put a lot of the blame for weak *employment growth* on weak labor supply growth.
2/ You *cannot* blame a rising unemployment rate on weak supply. That's a case of demand weakening more than supply.
3/...
We're still waiting for those scary layoff announcements to show up in the higher quality data...
November 20, 2025 at 6:32 PM
We're still waiting for those scary layoff announcements to show up in the higher quality data...
Claims (which are more timely than today's jobs report **by 2 whole months**) show no major change, just the same very gradual labor market cooling.
1/ Continuing claims at 1.974M, in line with my benchmark. Should be flattish or slightly down the rest of the year.
1/ Continuing claims at 1.974M, in line with my benchmark. Should be flattish or slightly down the rest of the year.
November 20, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Claims (which are more timely than today's jobs report **by 2 whole months**) show no major change, just the same very gradual labor market cooling.
1/ Continuing claims at 1.974M, in line with my benchmark. Should be flattish or slightly down the rest of the year.
1/ Continuing claims at 1.974M, in line with my benchmark. Should be flattish or slightly down the rest of the year.
Today’s jobs data: not great, not terrible, merely ho-hum substack.com/@macromostly...
Guy Berger (@macromostly)
Today’s labor market data: not great, not terrible, merely ho-hum
substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Today’s jobs data: not great, not terrible, merely ho-hum substack.com/@macromostly...
The September jobs report looks like a mixed bag.
The unemployment rate is ungood relative to August, other stuff looks fine-ish. Overall consistent with gradual labor market cooling in a long-ago labor market.
The unemployment rate is ungood relative to August, other stuff looks fine-ish. Overall consistent with gradual labor market cooling in a long-ago labor market.
It's been too long since a BLS chart thread, here we go!
Remember, this data is all 2 months old.
1/ The most worrisome thing I see in this report is the rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.44% (a 0.12pp increase).
Not everything in this report is as disappointing.
Remember, this data is all 2 months old.
1/ The most worrisome thing I see in this report is the rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.44% (a 0.12pp increase).
Not everything in this report is as disappointing.
November 20, 2025 at 5:15 PM
The September jobs report looks like a mixed bag.
The unemployment rate is ungood relative to August, other stuff looks fine-ish. Overall consistent with gradual labor market cooling in a long-ago labor market.
The unemployment rate is ungood relative to August, other stuff looks fine-ish. Overall consistent with gradual labor market cooling in a long-ago labor market.
It's been too long since a BLS chart thread, here we go!
Remember, this data is all 2 months old.
1/ The most worrisome thing I see in this report is the rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.44% (a 0.12pp increase).
Not everything in this report is as disappointing.
Remember, this data is all 2 months old.
1/ The most worrisome thing I see in this report is the rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.44% (a 0.12pp increase).
Not everything in this report is as disappointing.
November 20, 2025 at 5:02 PM
It's been too long since a BLS chart thread, here we go!
Remember, this data is all 2 months old.
1/ The most worrisome thing I see in this report is the rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.44% (a 0.12pp increase).
Not everything in this report is as disappointing.
Remember, this data is all 2 months old.
1/ The most worrisome thing I see in this report is the rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.44% (a 0.12pp increase).
Not everything in this report is as disappointing.
If you're awake at 825 AM ET (525 AM PT) on Thursday, I'll be joining Jonathan Levin and Allison Schrager to chat about the September jobs data!
Thanks to @opinion.bloomberg.com for hosting this!
x.com/i/broadcasts...
Thanks to @opinion.bloomberg.com for hosting this!
x.com/i/broadcasts...
Bloomberg Opinion
Jobs Day: Breaking Down The Latest Data
x.com
November 20, 2025 at 3:15 AM
If you're awake at 825 AM ET (525 AM PT) on Thursday, I'll be joining Jonathan Levin and Allison Schrager to chat about the September jobs data!
Thanks to @opinion.bloomberg.com for hosting this!
x.com/i/broadcasts...
Thanks to @opinion.bloomberg.com for hosting this!
x.com/i/broadcasts...
Boring reminder, the unemployment rate (and various household survey ratios) are currently much more informative about labor market health than NFP.
If you still have NFP brain, I recommend some reprogramming
If you still have NFP brain, I recommend some reprogramming
November 20, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Boring reminder, the unemployment rate (and various household survey ratios) are currently much more informative about labor market health than NFP.
If you still have NFP brain, I recommend some reprogramming
If you still have NFP brain, I recommend some reprogramming