Erika McEntarfer
@erikamcentarfer.bsky.social
Labor economist, personal account, all opinions my own
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
November 20, 2025 at 4:48 PM
So great to see BLS back to work measuring and informing us about our large and dynamic economy.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
It’s a great institution full of dedicated civil servants deeply committed their mission. They have had a tough year, and everyone is covering for someone who left. I thank them all for their service.
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report
November 19, 2025 at 5:46 PM
BLS confirms that October jobs report will not be released, but that October payroll numbers will be published with the November report
When Canada tried this is was a data disaster for large swaths of the country
November 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
When Canada tried this is was a data disaster for large swaths of the country
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
November 18, 2025 at 12:04 AM
While everyone is still digesting how it feels to not see a Sept jobs report until late November, remember this feeling the next time folks complain about monthly revisions and suggest publishing data with a 2 or 3 month lag.
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
WHITE HOUSE: FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE PERMANENTLY BEEN DAMAGED WHITE HOUSE: OCTOBER JOBS REPORTS LIKELY NEVER RELEASED
November 12, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
October jobs data may never be released, White House says
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been unable to collect price data and employment information during the record-breaking government shutdown.
dlvr.it
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 PM
All of BLS has been furloughed since October 1st. That means no one was collecting data in Oct. You can’t just walk into a Costco in mid-November and find out what the price of a good was in October. That’s why an October CPI isn’t possible.
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
www.reuters.com
November 5, 2025 at 2:23 PM
The usual caveats apply when comparing ADP to BLS jobs reports.
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
But add an additional one for October; this report was anticipated to be a big negative headline print - an estimated 150,000-200,000 federal workers left government at the end of September.
www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
It’s been just one month with little official economic data.
October 31, 2025 at 4:43 PM
It’s been just one month with little official economic data.
A very nice rundown of what private data sources can and cannot tell you about the state of the economy right now.
Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP.
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do.
New at @piie.com : www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
What the government shutdown teaches us about private sector data
The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resources,...
www.piie.com
October 30, 2025 at 8:11 PM
A very nice rundown of what private data sources can and cannot tell you about the state of the economy right now.
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Fed Making Key Economic Decisions Without Key Economic Data - The American Prospect
The Fed considers information from a variety of sources in setting monetary policy, everything from anecdotal reports to original data produced by its regional Reserve Banks. But the loss of public, a...
prospect.org
October 21, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Had not seen this reported elsewhere, that ADP has stopped sharing micro data with the Fed since the government shutdown.
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Article says Waller 'disclosed' this arrangement in an August speech, angering ADP, but the Fed has been transparent about this project for years (see, Cajner, et al., 2018).
Just pointing out the incoherence of ‘we must replace BLS leadership because of falling response rates’ and ‘we aren’t going to let you stem falling response rates by following up when they don’t respond’. (Census collects data for BLS too.)
Extent of the threat to the integrity of the 2030 Census in the House funding beggars belief. Not only did the Committee narrowly approve eliminating undocumented persons from apportionment counts (in violation of the 14th A), it also handcuffs Bureau’s ability to do nonresponse followup. 1/2
September 12, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Just pointing out the incoherence of ‘we must replace BLS leadership because of falling response rates’ and ‘we aren’t going to let you stem falling response rates by following up when they don’t respond’. (Census collects data for BLS too.)
This is a good summary.
Goldman Sachs on the benchmark revisions to payroll growth.
September 9, 2025 at 4:32 PM
This is a good summary.
The big story here is of an agency of dedicated statisticians and public servants working tirelessly to improve economic data in a climate of budgetary cuts to data collection. They have been very innovative in meeting that mandate. But we should also just fund our economic infrastructure.
Important to remember that thanks to the dedicated public servants at BLS, employment estimates have become MORE accurate over time
And the final version of the preliminary revision reported today will probably be smaller when it is incorporated early next year
And the final version of the preliminary revision reported today will probably be smaller when it is incorporated early next year
The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.
September 9, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The big story here is of an agency of dedicated statisticians and public servants working tirelessly to improve economic data in a climate of budgetary cuts to data collection. They have been very innovative in meeting that mandate. But we should also just fund our economic infrastructure.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.
September 9, 2025 at 2:01 PM
The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.
Your daily reminder that US economic data is of extremely high quality even when compared to other advanced nations and the envy of the world
Exclusive: The White House is preparing a report laying out alleged shortcomings of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs data, five weeks after President Trump fired the chief of the agency
White House Prepares Report Critical of Statistics Agency
The assessment would follow President Trump’s firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
on.wsj.com
September 9, 2025 at 12:27 AM
Your daily reminder that US economic data is of extremely high quality even when compared to other advanced nations and the envy of the world
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
The first wave of the survey underpinning nonfarm payrolls has seen falling response rates, but in contrast to accusations the BLS has "failed to take corrective action" several targeted steps have kept 2nd & 3rd wave response rates at or above 90%--Gold standard data from dedicated public servants
September 8, 2025 at 10:15 PM
The first wave of the survey underpinning nonfarm payrolls has seen falling response rates, but in contrast to accusations the BLS has "failed to take corrective action" several targeted steps have kept 2nd & 3rd wave response rates at or above 90%--Gold standard data from dedicated public servants
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
APOLLO: “.. Census data is starting to show a slowdown in AI adoption for large companies.
“.. The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools .. to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks.”
“.. The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools .. to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks.”
September 7, 2025 at 11:43 AM
APOLLO: “.. Census data is starting to show a slowdown in AI adoption for large companies.
“.. The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools .. to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks.”
“.. The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools .. to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks.”
The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case
U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09... #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09... #NumbersDay
Employment Situation Summary
- 2025 M07 Results
www.bls.gov
September 5, 2025 at 12:42 PM
The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case
A key challenge for BLS is adequate funding for data collection and modernization. During my tenure I tried to identify the causes. One person told me, ‘your problem is that while BLS has no enemies you also have no friends’ meaning no powerful interest groups advocating for economic data.
Every business day, big capitalist institutions depend on having access to unbiased economic statistics. It's time for them to step up and help protect the B.L.S. and other statistical agencies from Trump's encroachments.
My latest column:
www.newyorker.com/news/the-fin...
My latest column:
www.newyorker.com/news/the-fin...
Big Business and Wall Street Need to Stand Up for Honest Data
In nominating an inexperienced MAGA partisan for commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Donald Trump is chipping away at an essential foundation of the American economy.
www.newyorker.com
August 18, 2025 at 5:03 PM
A key challenge for BLS is adequate funding for data collection and modernization. During my tenure I tried to identify the causes. One person told me, ‘your problem is that while BLS has no enemies you also have no friends’ meaning no powerful interest groups advocating for economic data.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
"Payroll employment revisions indicate a slowing labor market—not a political agenda"
A great resource for journalists & others who want to understand recent events with BLS.
@upjohninstitute.bsky.social Pres Mike Horrigan helped lead BLS for decades.
#EconSky #️⃣#️⃣
www.upjohn.org/news/payroll...
A great resource for journalists & others who want to understand recent events with BLS.
@upjohninstitute.bsky.social Pres Mike Horrigan helped lead BLS for decades.
#EconSky #️⃣#️⃣
www.upjohn.org/news/payroll...
August 13, 2025 at 3:20 PM
"Payroll employment revisions indicate a slowing labor market—not a political agenda"
A great resource for journalists & others who want to understand recent events with BLS.
@upjohninstitute.bsky.social Pres Mike Horrigan helped lead BLS for decades.
#EconSky #️⃣#️⃣
www.upjohn.org/news/payroll...
A great resource for journalists & others who want to understand recent events with BLS.
@upjohninstitute.bsky.social Pres Mike Horrigan helped lead BLS for decades.
#EconSky #️⃣#️⃣
www.upjohn.org/news/payroll...
It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.
August 2, 2025 at 2:18 AM
It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
BLS explaining its CPI data collection reductions
"Roughly 15 percent of the sample in the other 72 areas also was suspended from collection, on average."
But it reassured this kind of reduction will have limited effect on CPI
www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...
"Roughly 15 percent of the sample in the other 72 areas also was suspended from collection, on average."
But it reassured this kind of reduction will have limited effect on CPI
www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...
More information on CPI collection reductions
More information on CPI collection reductions
www.bls.gov
July 29, 2025 at 7:09 PM
BLS explaining its CPI data collection reductions
"Roughly 15 percent of the sample in the other 72 areas also was suspended from collection, on average."
But it reassured this kind of reduction will have limited effect on CPI
www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...
"Roughly 15 percent of the sample in the other 72 areas also was suspended from collection, on average."
But it reassured this kind of reduction will have limited effect on CPI
www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
That was my theory going into the piece, but it turned out to be not only false but seemingly the opposite: the biggest employment gains young male grads have made in the past year have been in software and engineering jobs
July 18, 2025 at 11:31 AM
That was my theory going into the piece, but it turned out to be not only false but seemingly the opposite: the biggest employment gains young male grads have made in the past year have been in software and engineering jobs
I’ve talked to many young people in recent years who are interested in an econ PhD but don’t want a career in academia. Glad to see NABE stepping in here to provide more information on nonacademic careers for economists. (Only half of recent US econ PhDs work in academia!)
The NABE @nabe-econ.bsky.social ky.social will be holding a webinar on the private sector job mkt for PhD economists on July 29
nabe.com/NABE/Events/Ev…
nabe.com/NABE/Events/Ev…
https://nabe.com/NABE/Events/Ev…
July 17, 2025 at 1:57 PM
I’ve talked to many young people in recent years who are interested in an econ PhD but don’t want a career in academia. Glad to see NABE stepping in here to provide more information on nonacademic careers for economists. (Only half of recent US econ PhDs work in academia!)
Reposted by Erika McEntarfer
Attn users of CPS microdata: the April 2025 has been re-posted on the Census site to correct some errors in the weights and geography variables.
Links in next tweet.
Links in next tweet.
June 5, 2025 at 7:42 PM
Attn users of CPS microdata: the April 2025 has been re-posted on the Census site to correct some errors in the weights and geography variables.
Links in next tweet.
Links in next tweet.