Labor econ @upjohninstitute.bsky.social & @IZA.org. Formerly senior economist for labor at White House CEA, UMinn prof, union organizer, bike courier, house painter, dishwasher... Minneapolis. Views mine.
aaronsojourner.org
Be kind • Work hard • Have fun ..
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Labor econ @upjohninstitute.bsky.social & @IZA.org. Formerly senior economist for labor at White House CEA, UMinn prof, union organizer, bike courier, house painter, dishwasher... Minneapolis. Views mine.
aaronsojourner.org
Be kind • Work hard • Have fun
Aaron Sojourner is an American economist and senior researcher at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. He was formerly an associate professor of economics at the University of Minnesota's Carlson School of Management and senior economist for the Council of Economic Advisers. His work has been widely covered by the media, particularly on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market in the United States. .. more
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The people doing the work are devoted public servants and deserve our support, not to have their work impugned.
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www.bls.gov/bls/cipsea.pdf
- left top-secret documents in a public bathroom
- shared top-secret military attack plans publicly as they start to go into motion
Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Trevon D. Logan
Reposted by Aaron Sojourner
These public servants deserve our support, not to have their work impugned.
We will know if there are attempts at political interference bcz they would tell us.
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Reposted by Aaron Sojourner
In one year, Black unemployment has increased by MORE THAN A FULL percentage point. 🚩🚩🚩
#blackjobsday #jobsday #blacksky
They're there for us & we need to show up for them.
If you care about workers & employment, follow & join Friends of BLS.
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These are discussed at the bottom of the report & linked resources.
Expect propagandists will try to spin this into disinformation.
www.bls.gov/news.release...
1. Labor market looks strong & stable to now. Signs of weakening but some new signs of strengthening today, net to stablish
2. Job growth has basically stopped & it's very hard to get a job if you don't have one. But, if you have one, this report should make it feel slightly more secure.
(My column this week)
1st 300 clicks free to read...
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Wages (red) up at a 4.1% rate to Dec and prices up at only a 2.1% rate to Nov (blue) seems great, but price data messy w/govt shutdown.
Wait a bit longer before reading much into this one.
Private-sector wage growth steady, deceleration stopped?
Annualized rates:
over-the-month 4.0% (red)
over-3-months 4.1% (blue)
over-year 3.8% (grey).
Bizs & retirees want to push 🔽. Working families, 🔼.
Intensive Q margin = average hours.
Average workweek hours for private-sector ticks down to 34.2 hrs. Been bouncing around this low level.
Strong, just 0.2 pp off July-Sept 2024 recent-record high
Was lower than now thru 2002-2022 (80.6% high)
Constrains ability to add jobs without immigration = working age folks mostly working
The Baby Boomer bulge moving into retirement ages puts some downward demographic pressure on these.
While the unemployment rate remains moderate, it's a tough time to need to find a job cuz hiring rates are "jobless recovery" low
Long term unemployment means repeated failure & loss of UI
That provides some comfort and contradiction.
This month, it reverted down only a small amount, adding credibility that the apparent rise wasn't just noise.
Elevation is a 🚩 for weakening labor demand.
- good reasons: e.g. share of unemployed people finding jobs ⬆️, or
- bad reasons: share of unemployed people giving up searching after lack of success finding job ⬆️
I went to check labor flows table to see which but govt shutdown messed up our ability to understand this!
Decelerated hard after tariffs introduced & down since.
+48K/mo over most-recent 12 months
+14K/mo over most-recent 6 months
-22K/mo over most-recent 3 months
+50K this past month
Reposted by Michael A. Clemens
The U.S. economy added just 0.58 million jobs over 12 months to Dec 2025, the fewest jobs added outside of the recession in years.