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Guy Berger

@econberger.bsky.social

9.6K followers 2.2K following 3.2K posts

Workforce Economist in Residence at Guild; Senior Fellow at the Burning Glass Institute. I tweet a lot about labor markets, macro, and (sorry) music! Tweets represent my own views.

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · Sep 5

Stable core, fraying fringes. My recap of August's bad jobs report:

macromostly.substack.com/p/another-ba...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 16h

Bajillionaires of the world, we don't need more employment growth nowcasts during the government shutdown.

But we do need a very-large-sample monthly survey of US households to determine employment / unemployment status.

macromostly.substack.com/p/we-dont-ne...

We Don't Need More Employment Growth Nowcasts!

Slack Nowcasts Are the Missing Piece

macromostly.substack.com

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 3d

I was not anticipating this lyric on the newest Taylor Swift album

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 4d

Does the world need more prose on the labor market effects of the federal government shutdown? Probably not but I couldn't help myself.

Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/the-federa...

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 4d

I would read and share a thinkpiece on Taylor Swift’s creative debt to Geddy Lee

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 4d

Is that also on the new Taylor Swift album?!???!? Truly a poet

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 4d

“The Fate of Ophelia” has incredible lyrics:

“Now Ophelia
She's 'neath the window
For her I feel so afraid
On her twenty-second birthday
She already is an old maid
To her death
Is quite romantic
She wears an iron vest
Her profession's her religion
Her sin is her lifelessness”

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 5d

I’d be interested in an album of “Jon Anderson Sings the 1965-68 Music of Bob Dylan”, if only for novelty

youtu.be/HTxUsTJ4fl4?...

Steve Howe and Jon Anderson - Sad Eyed Lady of the Lowlands with Lyrics

YouTube video by Jon Anderson Official

youtu.be

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 5d

In the absence of the September BLS jobs report, we're looking through dirty goggles to try and guess the state of the labor market. My best guess is "slightly worse than August".

Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/high-frequ...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 5d

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 6d

"Is a shutdown 'the straw that breaks the camel’s back, right? It probably isn’t.' But 'do you want to take a chance?' " - what I told fellow west coaster @samjsutton.bsky.social at @politico.com about the labor market impact of the current shutdown.

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

What a government shutdown means for the US economy

The continued resilience of President Donald Trump’s economy will depend on the labor market rebounding from a worrisome hiring slowdown.

www.politico.com

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 6d

A few weeks ago I chatted with @davidjlynch.bsky.social at @washingtonpost.com about the ho-hum labor market. Seems even more relevant now:

“It looks kind of meh... The trajectory is not horrendous. But it’s probably moving in the wrong direction.”

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Analysis | Trump faces same economic challenges that cost Harris her White House bid

President Donald Trump faces a similar economic environment to the one that cost Kamala Harris the White House.

www.washingtonpost.com

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 6d

In case anyone is interested, I took a crack at assessing 3 high quality "alternate" indicators of the labor market that I'll be looking at during the federal government shutdown.

macromostly.substack.com/p/on-alterna...

On Alternate Indicators

How to Think About ADP, Revelio and the Chicago Fed Nowcast

macromostly.substack.com

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 7d

My take on today's disappointing JOLTS report, which may be the final government data we get on the labor market for a while...

Link: lnkd.in/gNaHxG-5

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 8d

Interesting article from Sarah Mervosh (NY Times) about the workforce implications of declining aptitude in math and reading, with a cameo by @guildeducation.bsky.social CEO Bijal Shah!

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...

What Declines in Reading and Math Mean for the U.S. Work Force

www.nytimes.com

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 8d

2/ The CPS data (which is more timely by a few weeks) shows no such softening and makes me wonder if a pessimistic JOLTS interpretation is overweighting noise: bsky.app/profile/econ...

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 18d

Why is labor market turnover in the household survey telling a more positive story than unemployment (from the same survey)? My thoughts.

Link: macromostly.substack.com/p/a-survey-d...

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 8d

JOLTS preview:

1/ Unless we avert a government shutdown, tomorrow morning's JOLTS release (August) will be the last major government update on the labor market for a while.

We saw a teeny bit of hiring softness in June/July, but...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 9d

This album isn’t Mingus’s best but you can’t go wrong with more live versions of “Jump Monk”

youtu.be/Y5YvpcsKi2o?...

Jump Monk (Live)

YouTube video by Charles Mingus - Topic

youtu.be

Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 9d

Really interesting and concerning article about how rising summer temperatures due to climate change are endangering pregnancies www.economist.com/internationa...