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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 14h

Minutes from the Fed's September meeting underscore the divisions between policymakers about the path forward for policy. A few officials appeared reluctant to cut last month and a majority see upside risk to inflation. Still, most see scope to cut further this year

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 1d

Miran on Tuesday explained his shift from opposing rate cuts last year to supporting them this year, saying his view of neutral "has basically just gone from one end of the range to the other." He cites immigration restrictions and expectations of changes to the deficit

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 6d

Cook may have notched another win in her legal battle with Trump over his attempt to oust her as a Fed governor, but the threat to independence won't fade anytime soon

"It’s a time to exhale but not breathe easy," says @petercontibrown.bsky.social

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/02/b... @nytimes.com

Fed’s Independence Remains at Risk Despite Temporary Legal Victory

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 7d

Another victory for Lisa Cook in her lawsuit against Trump, who is trying to remover her as a Fed governor over allegations of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court rules she can stay on in her role as the case is being litigated

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 7d

The Fed was already facing a tough decision about how quickly to lower rates this year. But that judgment call is set to get much harder if the shutdown deprives the central bank of essential data that help it gauge the state of the economy www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/b... @nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 13d

"You’re throwing money at a country that essentially has exhausted its ability to borrow from the IMF," says CFR's Brad Setser of the US lifeline to Argentina, a serial defaulter
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u... @nytimes.com

Trump Wades Into Bailout Politics in Offering a Lifeline to Argentina

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Colby Smith

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 13d

NYT: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that if New York City needed a federal bailout” under .. Mamdani, .. “Drop dead”.

“.. But Argentina is a different story.”

@colbylsmith.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 13d

"People don't feel the need to move urgently, and part of that is because they're still very scared of tariff inflation, Miran says of his Fed colleagues. He calls for rates to be quickly lowered by 150-200bps even as he expects ~3% growth in 2026

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 15d

During this Q&A, Powell is emphasizing the risks posed to the labor market. He suggests it is no longer accurate to describe the labor market as "solid" and that we are in a "low fire, low hire" environment

Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 15d

In a speech on Tuesday, Powell underscores the "challenging situation" the Fed finds itself in as its officials debate how quickly to lower interest rates without stoking inflation or worsening a weakening labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/b... @nytimes.com

Powell Stresses ‘Challenging Situation’ for Fed as Rate Debate Intensifies

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 15d

In a speech on Tuesday, Powell underscores the "challenging situation" the Fed finds itself in as its officials debate how quickly to lower interest rates without stoking inflation or worsening a weakening labor market www.nytimes.com/2025/09/23/b... @nytimes.com

Powell Stresses ‘Challenging Situation’ for Fed as Rate Debate Intensifies

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16d

"I'm not panicky," said Miran during the Q&A. Rather he said the risks grow the longer interest rates stay too restrictive

Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16d

In his first speech as a member of the Board of Governors, Stephen Miran said interest rates should be roughly 2 percentage points below current levels, or around 2.5 percent nytimes.com/2025/09/22/b... @nytimes.com

Trump’s Fed Pick Outlines Case for Slashing Interest Rates

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16d

In his first speech as a member of the Board of Governors, Stephen Miran said interest rates should be roughly 2 percentage points below current levels, or around 2.5 percent nytimes.com/2025/09/22/b... @nytimes.com

Trump’s Fed Pick Outlines Case for Slashing Interest Rates

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 20d

The latest dot plot underscored the tough bind the Fed finds itself in, with inflation moving away from target, the labor market wobbly and politics in play. Officials can’t address both economic risks, and resolving one typically jeopardizes the other www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/b... @nytimes.com

Fed Faces No Good Options as Labor Market Wobbles While Inflation Firms

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 21d

The Fed's meeting today is a pivotal one, not least for all of the unusual dynamics leading up to it involving Miran and Cook's attendance. The focus will be on the dot plot and whether this cut is the first in a series this year www.nytimes.com/2025/09/17/b... @nytimes.com

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s September Meeting

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22d

Fed officials are gathering today for a meeting unlike any other. It’s the first day on the job for Miran, who will vote despite missing all the briefings. Cook, meanwhile, has spent weeks defending her right to participate after taking Trump to court www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/b... @nytimes.com

Fed Meeting Set to Bring Together Trump Ally With Targets of President’s Ire

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 23d

NEW: The appeals court sides with Lisa Cook, the Fed governor at the heart of Trump's attacks on the central bank, confirming that she will attend this week's meeting and vote on interest rates.

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 23d

Inside the Fed, there is a preoccupation with doing whatever possible to avoid provoking Trump, which at times has meant complying with his wishes. That cautious approach is drawing scrutiny as its independence comes under threat
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/15/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social

The Fed Tried to Avoid a Fight With Trump. It Got One Anyway.

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 26d

Days before the Fed's rate decision, the central bank isn’t even sure who will attend the meeting. Gov Cook's fate is now in doubt pending a court ruling. And Trump's pick for a separate vacancy will face a confirmation vote as early as Monday www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/b... @nytimes.com

As the Fed Prepares to Lower Rates, 2 Seats on Its Board Are in Limbo

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 27d

NEW: The Trump administration has asked a federal appeals court to allow it to move ahead with firing Lisa Cook from the Fed's board, in an attempt to stop her from taking part in the central bank’s meeting on interest rates next week

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Reposted by Colby Smith

Peter Baker @peterbakernyt.bsky.social · 27d

Inflation pushes up to a 2.9% annual rate, the highest of Trump's second term, according to figures released by Trump's Bureau of Labor Statistics, whose previous director he fired after a job report that angered him. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/b...

Rise in U.S. Inflation Likely to Keep Fed Cautious on Pace of Rate Cuts

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 27d

US inflation accelerated in August at a speed that is likely to keep the Fed cautious about lowering borrowing costs too quickly once it restarts cuts as soon as next week. Monthly CPI rose 0.4% and is up 2.9% YoY. Core prices rose 0.3% or 3.1% annually

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 28d

As expected the Trump administration has appealed last night's ruling that allowed Lisa Cook to stay on as a Fed governor until her legal battle with the president is resolved www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u... @tonyromm.bsky.social @nytimes.com

Trump Administration to Appeal Ruling That Allows Lisa Cook to Remain at Fed

www.nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 28d

Republicans are racing to get Trump's Fed pick confirmed before next week's policy meeting despite mounting concerns over his plans to take a temporary leave of absence from his job as one of the president's top economic advisers www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/b... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29d

Cook's lawyer says that today's ruling thwarting the president's attempt to fire a sitting governor on the central bank "recognizes and reaffirms the importance of safeguarding the independence of the Federal Reserve from illegal political interference."

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29d

What is notable about the judge's ruling is that is decisive about what is and is not cause as it relates to the Fed. It involves behavior in office and whether an official is executing their statutory duties. It does not involve conduct occurring before their time in office

Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29d

NEW: The court rules that Lisa Cook can stay on as a governor as her case against Trump trying to fire her is being litigated. The judge says that "for cause" applies to behavior while in office and that Cook's right to due process was violated

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