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Brendan Nyhan

@brendannyhan.bsky.social

100K followers 4.2K following 8.8K posts

Dartmouth political scientist and Bright Line Watch co-director. Previously Upshot NYT / CJR contributor, Spinsanity co-founder, All the President's Spin co-author. https://sites.dartmouth.edu/nyhan/ http://brightlinewatch.org .. more

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Brendan Nyhan is an American political scientist and professor at Dartmouth College. He is also a liberal to moderate political blogger, author, and political columnist. He was born in Mountain View, California and now lives in Hanover, New Hampshire. .. more

Political science 39%

Sociology 22%

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 2d

My new op-ed with @lkfazio.bsky.social:

Trump sent a 'compact' to our universities. They should reject this devil's bargain.
Any institution that yields to these broad and intrusive demands would forever be subservient to the whims of the government.
www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 32m

ah, thanks. this is helpful. I guess it depends if we think he would have actually fired Wray (and how we evaluate the Senate confirmation move - it obviously failed but post hoc judgments can't be trusted)

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1h

certainly not perfect, but the best ones (which the LLMs are on track to beat) are very good and routinely beat subject matter experts. I recommend trying it on Metaculus by the way! very challenging

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 1h

well sure, they contain multitudes! my point is they can do a lot of very difficult tasks beyond just regurgitation and they are the worst they will ever be.

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 2h

A good example of Dems not adapting to MAGA war mindset is that they keep telling reporters they can't engage on Trump's military occupations because it's a "trap" to entice them into a losing debate about crime. That concedes too much up front and plays by old rules.
newrepublic.com/article/2014...

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Ryan Enos, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , and 2 more Brendan Nyhan, Ryan Enos, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Michael D. McDonald, Simon Lester

FiftyPlusOne.news @fiftyplusone.news · 2h

new polls website just dropped fiftyplusone.news

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Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe, David Darmofal

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 2h

Utterly sinister and deeply threatening to democracy:

"plans to deploy America's counter-terrorism apparatus... as well as the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department against certain left-wing groups it accuses of funding and organizing political violence"

Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 5h

President Donald Trump's threatened crackdown on the finances and activities of liberal non-profits and groups opposed to his agenda is a multi-agency effort with top White House aide Stephen Miller playing a central role, according to officials.

www.reuters.com/legal/govern...

www.reuters.com

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 2h

TFW when you realize you're about to fail the Lando test: "Harvard officials have since discussed internally the possibility of seeking additional assurances from the admin. that the university will not be subject to further demands once an agreement has been signed"

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3h

LLMs are just plagiarism machines blah blah blah.

Reality: A chaired CS prof at UT Austin found it proposed a solution that saved him a week of work on a paper "proving oracle separations between quantum complexity classes" scottaaronson.blog?p=9183&utm_s...

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3h

LLMs are just plagiarism machines blah blah blah.

Reality: They are on track to outperform the best human forecasters by *next year*. x.com/Research_FRI...

Forecasting Research Institute on X: "Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future? Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate LLMs are at forecasting real-world events. A trend extrapolation of our results suggests LLMs will reach https://t.co/vqWFGYCgVN" / X

Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future? Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate LLMs are at forecasting real-world events. A trend extrapolation of our results suggests LLMs will reach https://t.co/vqWFGYCgVN

x.com

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 3h

LLMs are just plagiarism machines blah blah blah.

Reality: They are on track to outperform the best human forecasters by *next year*. x.com/Research_FRI...

x.com

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Eric Goldman, Philip Nel , and 3 more Brendan Nyhan, Eric Goldman, Philip Nel, Alfie Kohn, Simon Lester, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 4h

Nothing remotely resembling an insurrection is happening anywhere in the country. Any violence associated with protest has been isolated, mild, and, in nearly every case, instigated by federal law enforcement. If we let Trump get away with calling dissent an insurrection, our republic is over.

BREAKING: Trump Admin 'Seriously' Considering Using the Insurrection Act, Reports NBC

President Trump is "seriously" considering invoking the Insurrection Act in order to more easily deploy National Guard troops to major cities as part of crime crackdown, NBC reported on Wednesday

www.mediaite.com

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 4h

not sure

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Bryce Covert @brycecovert.bsky.social · 4h

Trump has repeatedly fired Black government officials and replaced them with white men www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/u...

Trump Fires Black Officials From an Overwhelmingly White Administration

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Seth Cotlar @sethcotlar.bsky.social · 4h

Benny Johnson and Oregon MAGA activist (and convicted J6 felon) David Medina accompanied Kristi Noem during her visit to Portland. Here they are amplifying a local MAGA influencer with some, well, interesting ideas about race and religion.

Benny Johnson @bennyjoh...•17h
Huge shoutout to@basedinportland
She and her family drape themselves in American flags and walk the streets of Antifa-overrun Portland, showing fearless support for ICE agents. They spend countless hours outside the ICE facility, thanking the agents working tirelessly to Show more
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Based. In Portland. o
2,998 posts
BENNY SHOW..
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Based. In Portland.
@basedinportland
Christ is ALL #MAGA mom in PDX
§ Wife tryin' to be His
dream girl. Mother x 4 life schoolers. Portiand TPUSA Chapter
3:31
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Family Leaders.
© Portland, OR # Joined September 2024
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if you wouldn't mind clicking on the account their client uh
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2.4K
Ill 69K

Based. In Portland.
White Pride
@basedi... •8/30/25
Celina10101
@celina1010...•8/30/25
It's so over for multiculturalists, the surfer bros are waking up Ö&
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Based. In Portland.
We read our Bibles - we know.
@basedin... •9/8/25
...
No one asked for mass Islamic migration.
Now we must fight legally before the fight requires a well regulated militia.
Wall Street Apes &
@WallSt.. •9/8/25
American Pastor has traveled all over the Europe and has a warning, "The enemy of the world is Islam, 1000%"
"There are places in Texas, there are places in Dearborn, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota that are nearly fully Islamic. They are trying to institute all of their Sharia Show more

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Reposted by James Q. Wilson, Brendan Nyhan, Nelson Flores , and 2 more James Q. Wilson, Brendan Nyhan, Nelson Flores, Andrew Rudalevige, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò

Lisa Fazio @lkfazio.bsky.social · 4h

"American civil society has more than enough financial and organizational muscle to stop this authoritarian offensive. But it requires collective resolve. And it requires leadership, which has been in painfully short supply."

www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Harvard Must Take a Stand Against Trump’s Compact | Opinion | The Harvard Crimson

Harvard, rather than quietly pursuing its own appeasement strategy, should lead the way to preserve academic freedom and democracy.

www.thecrimson.com

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Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Sebastiaan Faber

Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 5h

A woman who was shot multiple times by U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents did not ram them with her car and had her weapon stored in her purse at the time of the incident, according to her lawyer, contradicting accounts by the Department of Homeland Security.

www.reuters.com/world/us/bod...

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Éric Gilbert

Dannagal Goldthwaite Young @dannagal.bsky.social · 5h

In which Harvard’s Enos & Levitsky call on Harvard to lead the way, coordinating with other universities in fight for academic freedom. Our civil institutions will need to learn that power is harnessed through coordination. Protecting oneself will never be enough.
www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Harvard Must Take a Stand Against Trump’s Compact | Opinion | The Harvard Crimson

Harvard, rather than quietly pursuing its own appeasement strategy, should lead the way to preserve academic freedom and democracy.

www.thecrimson.com

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Rosemary A. Joyce, Michael D. McDonald , and 2 more Brendan Nyhan, Rosemary A. Joyce, Michael D. McDonald, Henry Jones, Nathan P. Kalmoe

Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 5h

www.reuters.com

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Nelson Flores

Ryan Enos @ryanenos.bsky.social · 6h

Nothing shows the dangerous tendency to normalize authoritarianism like the New York Times coverage of the extortion of Harvard. One could read this article and think it is about a free agent inking a contract with the Yankees. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/u...

Harvard Seeks Assurances as Talks Restart in Washington

www.nytimes.com

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 14h

Grandpa's been watching cable news and gotten confused again

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 21h

Trump on Portland: "It's like the movies you see for the kids, I guess not only the kids, adults also, where you have these bombed out cities and these bombed out people. It's like, worse than that."

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Rosemary A. Joyce, Joseph Schafer , and 1 more Brendan Nyhan, Rosemary A. Joyce, Joseph Schafer, David R. Miller

Anna Bower @annabower.bsky.social · 15h

You’ve gotta be kidding me.

This WaPo editorial presents a misleading revisionist history of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s criminal cases against Trump.

Then it has the gall to compare that to Trump’s overt targeting of his perceived enemies.

Really embarrassing stuff.

But the mere fact that a legal tool might be available does not mean it should be used. The
current rage over Grassley's revelation shows why. Smith showed little restraint in his pursuit of a former president. He charged Trump for official acts he took as president. He sought a gag order to limit Trump's ability to criticize the prosecution. He tried to accelerate the case to try a leading presidential candidate before the 2024 election.

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 15h

The man with the nuclear codes is like your grandpa struggling with the TV remote

Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 16h

WSJ: President Trump believed his Truth Social post demanding prosecutions of James Comey and other political foes was a private message to his attorney general, and "and was surprised to learn it was public."

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 15h

"Person, woman, man, camera, TV"

Eric Columbus @ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 15h

Quite a headline
www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...

Trump to get a 'routine yearly' medical check-up — his second in 6 months

The White House said Trump would be at Walter Reed Medical Center and undergo a checkup after a planned meeting with service members in the facility.

www.nbcnews.com

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Reposted by Brendan Nyhan

Reposted by Brendan Nyhan, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Timothy D. McBride , and 1 more Brendan Nyhan, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Timothy D. McBride, David Darmofal

Eric Columbus @ericcolumbus.bsky.social · 15h

Quite a headline
www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...

Trump to get a 'routine yearly' medical check-up — his second in 6 months

The White House said Trump would be at Walter Reed Medical Center and undergo a checkup after a planned meeting with service members in the facility.

www.nbcnews.com

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Reposted by David R. Miller

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 15h

But his DMs

Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 16h

Why is the President of the United States trying to communicate with the Attorney General about government business via direct messages on the social media site he owns?

And is a direct message on a privately owned social media site kind of like a private email server?

Sean O’Kane @seanokane.bsky.social · 17h

WSJ is reporting that the Truth Social post where Trump told Pam Bondi to prosecute Comey *really was supposed to be a private message*

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 15h

Needless to say, it's wildly inappropriate. But Wray didn't have to resign! Unlike so many people this administration has targeted, he literally enabled his own prosecution.

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Reposted by David R. Miller

Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 16h

Wray meekly resigned when Trump took office, paving the way for a grifter as head of the FBI, and is still being targeted by the administration. Leopards, faces, etc.

Quinta Jurecic @qjurecic.bsky.social · 17h

incredibly, bleakly funny that trump is going after christopher wray, who spent his entire tenure at the fbi with his head down desperately trying to avoid trump's attention and did nothing to protect the bureau from trump's attacks www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Other prosecutors are investigating former CIA director John Brennan, another prominent Trump critic, and former FBI director Christopher Wray, who was originally appointed by Trump but enraged conservatives who came to believe he had wielded the bureau’s powers against them. Former officials have received subpoenas in recent days in the Wray inquiry, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.

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