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stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller
@stefanmueller.bsky.social
3.9K followers 1.5K following 250 posts

Associate Professor @ucddublin.bsky.social • party competition, public opinion, political communication, computational social science • Maintainer @irishpollingind.bsky.social • Executive Committee Member @yai.ie
muellerstefan.net .. more

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Environmental science 18%
Communication & Media Studies 16%
Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Stefan Müller

profdansmith.bsky.social
Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 3d
🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Japan Decides 2024
This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective
link.springer.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller

stefwalter.bsky.social
Stefanie Walter @stefwalter.bsky.social · 3d
Very excited about this @iojournal.bsky.social special issue on the future of global governance and world order – many (short) thoughtful pieces, perfect for teaching!

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Reposted by Tim Bale, Stefan Müller, Lucas Leemann , and 2 more

chanret.bsky.social
Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 4d
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 5d
We use 15Five’s weekly, voluntary check-ins. 15Five offers an academic discount, but it’s still not cheap. Let me know if you know of more affordable services for submitting and reviewing progress reports/check-ins.
(@fgilardi.bsky.social introduced me to 15Five when I was a postdoc in Zurich.)

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 6d
The template offers a starting point rather than a fixed standard. The idea comes from Tendler et al. (2023, eLife), who argue that labs need a handbook.

–  Template: www.ucd.ie/graduatestud...
– Our handbook: text-and-policy.com/files/handbo...
- eLife paper: doi.org/10.7554/eLif...

2/2

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Ben Tonra, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 6d
UCD Graduate Studies and I have produced a Research Group Handbook template for supervisors and researchers.
The template outlines core topics, resources, and policies that groups can adapt to their needs.

➡️ Template and details: www.ucd.ie/graduatestud...

@ucddublin.bsky.social
1/2
Title page of Research Group Handbook Poster on building community through a reserach group handbook, presented at the 2025 All-Island Research Culture Network Conference in Belfast.

Reposted by Stefan Müller

ucdpolitics.bsky.social
UCD Politics and International Relations @ucdpolitics.bsky.social · 6d
Interested in the MA/MSc International Relations, Politics & Data Science, Human Rights, Gender, International Development, European Politics, Conflict Studies, Political Theory, Political Economy, etc.?

🗓️ Wed, Nov 26 | 3:30 pm.

We hope to see you there!
www.ucd.ie/socscilaw/st...

Reposted by Stefan Müller

aidanobrien.bsky.social
Aidan O’Brien @aidanobrien.bsky.social · 7d
Dublin central by-election incoming*.

(*sometime in the next 6 months)
Dublin Central returns from 2024, Paschal Donohoe came in 2nd behind Mary Lou McDonald but ahead of Gary Gannon. With infamous Dublin gangster Gerry "the monk" Hutch coming 4th. Eeep.

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Aidan O’Sullivan

colmkavanagh.bsky.social
Colm Kavanagh @colmkavanagh.bsky.social · 9d
97th minute winner, to keep World Cup hopes alive. Wait for the scenes here - and take note of Jake O’Brien!!! Subbed at half time, ice pack on his right leg!!
#COYBIG #FAI #UTFT

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Mark Rubin, Paolo Crosetto , and 3 more

dsquintana.bsky.social
Dan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 11d
Our paper on improving statistical reporting in psychology is now online 🎉

As a part of this paper, we also created the Transparent Statistical Reporting in Psychology checklist, which researchers can use to improve their statistical reporting practices

www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Transparent and comprehensive statistical reporting is critical for ensuring the credibility, reproducibility, and interpretability of psychological research. This paper offers a structured set of guidelines for reporting statistical analyses in quantitative psychology, emphasizing clarity at both the planning and results stages. Drawing on established recommendations and emerging best practices, we outline key decisions related to hypothesis formulation, sample size justification, preregistration, outlier and missing data handling, statistical model specification, and the interpretation of inferential outcomes. We address considerations across frequentist and Bayesian frameworks and fixed as well as sequential research designs, including guidance on effect size reporting, equivalence testing, and the appropriate treatment of null results. To facilitate implementation of these recommendations, we provide the Transparent Statistical Reporting in Psychology (TSRP) Checklist that researchers can use to systematically evaluate and improve their statistical reporting practices (https://osf.io/t2zpq/). In addition, we provide a curated list of freely available tools, packages, and functions that researchers can use to implement transparent reporting practices in their own analyses to bridge the gap between theory and practice. To illustrate the practical application of these principles, we provide a side-by-side comparison of insufficient versus best-practice reporting using a hypothetical cognitive psychology study. By adopting transparent reporting standards, researchers can improve the robustness of individual studies and facilitate cumulative scientific progress through more reliable meta-analyses and research syntheses.

Reposted by Stefan Müller

gavreilly.com
Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 13d
TIME Magazine (!!!) asked me to explain what the wider world should know about Catherine Connolly:

time.com/7333194/irel...
The Meaning of Ireland's New Anti-Establishment President
Catherine Connolly has a change mandate that may put her at odds with Ireland's own government—and its allies in Europe and America.
time.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller

alexdukalskis.bsky.social
Alex Dukalskis @alexdukalskis.bsky.social · 13d
Reminiscent of this classic from Irish media.

—

‘Seagulls in Dublin have “lost the run of themselves completely”, a Fianna Fáil senator has told the Seanad.

Senator Ned O’Sullivan that while he “could take or leave pigeons” he is “very much against seagulls”.’
FF Senator says ‘seagulls have lost the run of themselves’
Senator accuses seagulls of being raucous and stealing children’s lollipops
www.irishtimes.com

Reposted by Dan Brockington, Håvard Kauserud, Tim Bale , and 15 more

paolocrosetto.bsky.social
Paolo Crosetto @paolocrosetto.bsky.social · 13d
What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.

It's *scientific publishing*.

We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...

Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy 👇

Reposted by Simon Hix, Stefan Müller, Stefanie Walter , and 1 more

epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 13d
🔝 EPSS received 2,514 paper submissions, authored and co-authored by 3,572 researchers from across the community.

Selecting from such a wealth of work won’t be easy, but it promises an great conference ahead.

1/

Reposted by Simon Hix, Stefan Müller, Maarten Vink , and 9 more

chriswratil.bsky.social
Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 16d
🚨 Job Alert! Postdoc in POLITICAL TEXT ANALYSIS in the MULTIREP project

You do quant text analysis? You are interested in political representation? Enjoy working in teams? Would like to live in a great city? Consider joining us in Vienna!

⏱️ Apply by 15/12/2025

wratil.eu/files/MULTIR...

1/4 🧵

Reposted by Stefan Müller

kenbenoit.bsky.social
Ken Benoit @kenbenoit.bsky.social · 20d
#EPSS2026 currently at over 1,100 submissions and climbing, report the conference committee chairs. Submissions close tomorrow. Don't forget to submit!
app.oxfordabstracts.com/stages/79266...

All your questions answered here:
epssnet.org/conferences/...

@epssnet.bsky.social
Oxford Abstracts
app.oxfordabstracts.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller

ucdresearch.bsky.social
UCD Research @ucdresearch.bsky.social · 20d
Advanced UCD Research in Artificial Intelligence (AURA), our single biggest investment in #AI #supercomputing!

@ucddublin.bsky.social also invested €1.45m to upgrade existing campus-wide HPC stack, supporting Ireland's largest concentration of AI researchers
www.siliconrepublic.com/innovation/u...
UCD buys €724,000 Nvidia supercomputer for AI-led research boost
University College Dublin's new Nvidia supercomputer has 50 times the performance capacity compared to the existing cluster at the university.
www.siliconrepublic.com

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Stefan Müller, Jo Shaw

ucdpolitics.bsky.social
UCD Politics and International Relations @ucdpolitics.bsky.social · 22d
Applications are now open for the UCD Iseult Honohan Doctoral Scholarship 2026.

Closing Date: 30 January 2026

✔️Covers full fees (EU and Non-EU)
✔️Provides a living stipend of €25,000 per year for up to four years
✔️Is open to EU and non-EU applicants

👇
www.ucd.ie/spire/study/...

Reposted by Will Jennings, Ruth Dassonneville, Stefan Müller , and 11 more

sarahobolt.bsky.social
Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 25d
🚨 EPSS Belfast 2026 Call for Papers - One week to go! 🚨

Don't forget to submit your paper or panel proposal to the European Political Science Society @epssnet.bsky.social 2026 conference - just one week to go before the deadline: epssnet.org/belfast-2026...
Call for Papers | EPSS Belfast 2026 Conference
Submit your abstract or full paper for EPSS Belfast 2026. Share cutting‑edge political science research, network with peers & contribute to academic impact.
epssnet.org

Reposted by Edgar Morgenroth

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 27d
Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election.

@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.

➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
Respondents were asked ‘Why’ they voted the way they did in an open-ended text box. These are the responses classified into groups. Open-ended survey responses – proportional sample of statements % of each voter type that spoiled their ballot as opposed to those who voted at the 2025 Irish Presidential election. % who spoiled their vote broken down by age, gender and self-reported social class.

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Stefan Müller, Chris Hanretty , and 1 more

kevcunningham.bsky.social
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 28d
I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future.

kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?
An initial analysis
kevcunningham.substack.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Tom Louwerse

peilingwijzer.bsky.social
Peilingwijzer @peilingwijzer.bsky.social · 28d
The Peilingwijzer poll of polls for the Netherlands has been updated to include the latest polls of Verian/EenVandaag and Ipsos I&O.

📊 📈 All graphs & figures: https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
Graph with most recent scores of Peilingwijzer poll of poll (Netherlands)

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Ben Tonra

alexdukalskis.bsky.social
Alex Dukalskis @alexdukalskis.bsky.social · 29d
If you’re in New York join me & @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social at @columbiauniversity.bsky.social as we talk w/ @adamtooze.bsky.social about our new book Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics

Register here:

harriman.columbia.edu/event/book-l...
Book Launch. "Dictating the Agenda"
Please join the Harriman Institute and the Committee on Global Thought for a book launch of "Dictating the Agenda" by Alexander Cooley and Alexander Dukalskis. Moderated by Adam Tooze.
harriman.columbia.edu

Reposted by David M. Farrell, Stefan Müller

theresareidy.bsky.social
Theresa Reidy @theresareidy.bsky.social · 29d
Writing about what the presidential vote means in Irish Examiner today. Green shoots for the left, bad news for the government and warning signs from a potentially undemocratic far-right.

www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/comm...
Theresa Reidy: Catherine Connolly's victory has lessons for the Government, the left, and future candidates
The election result sends a sharp warning note to the Government
www.irishexaminer.com

Reposted by Stefan Müller

rtetwip.bsky.social
The Week in Politics @rtetwip.bsky.social · Oct 26
Politics lecturer at TU Dublin, @kevcunningham.bsky.social , reflects on the 'three major events' in the presidential campaign that culminated in @catherinegalway's eventual victory.

#RTETWIP will repeat at 23:10 tonight on @rteone.rte.ie

Reposted by Stefan Müller

irishpollingind.bsky.social
Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · Oct 26
Updated aggregated estimates:

Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)

➡️ pollingindicator.com
Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5) Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5) Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20) Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15) Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5) Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5) Aontú: 4% (3–5) II: 3.5% (3–4.5) SPBP: 2.5% (2–3) GP: 2.5% (2–2.5) https://pollingindicator.com House Effects

Reposted by Stefan Müller

rtetwip.bsky.social
The Week in Politics @rtetwip.bsky.social · Oct 26
Also on today's #RTETWIP at noon, post #PresidentialElection analysis will also be provided by TU Dublin Politics Lecturer, @kevcunningham.bsky.social and RTE Political Correspondent
@fertha.bsky.social.

Tune in on @rteone.rte.ie and catch the repeat at 23:10

Reposted by Stefan Müller

spiegel.de
DER SPIEGEL @spiegel.de · Oct 25
Irland: Catherine Connolly gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl deutlich: Die von einem Linksbündnis unterstützte Kandidatin Catherine Connolly hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Irland gewonnen. Die einzige Mitbewerberin gratulierte schon am Nachmittag. Und doch gibt es für Connolly nicht nur Grund zum…
Irland: Catherine Connolly gewinnt Präsidentschaftswahl deutlich
Die von einem Linksbündnis unterstützte Kandidatin Catherine Connolly hat die Präsidentschaftswahl in Irland gewonnen. Die einzige Mitbewerberin gratulierte schon am Nachmittag. Und doch gibt es für Connolly nicht nur Grund zum Feiern.
www.spiegel.de

Reposted by Stefan Müller, Stephen Ryan, Nicolai von Ondarza , and 1 more

gavreilly.com
Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · Oct 25
🚨 Aggregate of national #aras25 tallies
(albeit only partial in some constituencies):

Catherine Connolly 63%
Heather Humphreys 30%
Jim Gavin 7%

Roughly 13% of votes nationwide are spoiled/invalid

@virginmedianews.bsky.social

Reposted by Ben Tonra

stefanmueller.bsky.social
Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · Oct 25
Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️
#Aras25
analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-...
@kevcunningham.bsky.social
Which of the following was most important in making your choice? (Select up to 2) Connolly voters relied on Integrity & Honesty, Competence and Communication skills. Humphreys voters more likely to focus on how the candidate represented Ireland internationally.