Irish Polling Indicator
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irishpollingind.bsky.social
Irish Polling Indicator
@irishpollingind.bsky.social
The Irish Polling Indicator combines all opinion polls into estimates of political support for Irish parties and Independents | Maintainer: @stefanmueller.bsky.social
https://pollingindicator.com
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election.

@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.

➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
October 29, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Updated aggregated estimates:

Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)

➡️ pollingindicator.com
October 26, 2025 at 11:24 AM
New blog post on party support, seven months after the general election: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-...

SF: 21.5% [20–23]
FF: 20.5% [19–21.5]
FG: 18% [16.5–19.5]
Ind/Oth: 15% [13.5–17]
SD: 7.5% [6.5–8.5]
LAB: 5% [4–5.5]
II: 4% [3–5]
AÚ: 3.5% [3–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2–3]
June 30, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
The GE 2024 Election Study Data are released this morning.

Rory Costello shows that only one-third of respondents feel close to a party, and over 30% reported having voted for a different party in 2020.

Confirms that volatility and party affiliation differ from the typical European country.
May 22, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Gail and I wrote a chapter on issue salience and party positions.

The most streamlined project I’ve worked on – thanks to the editors’ clear instructions and tight deadlines.

1️⃣ Election: 29 Nov 2024
2️⃣ First drafts due just two months (!) after election day
3️⃣ Final version due 5 March 2025
May 14, 2025 at 11:15 AM
The latest Irish Polling Indicator estimates, five months after the General Election:

SF: 24% [22.5–25.5]
FF: 22% [21–23]
FG: 18.5% [17.5–20]
Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13]
SD: 7% [6.5–8]
LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5]
II: 3.5% [3–4.5]
AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2.5–3]

➡️ pollingindicator.com
April 29, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
POLL: Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks
(April 3-4, MoE 2.2%)

Fianna Fáil 25 (+3 in five weeks)
Fine Gael 21 (-1)
Sinn Féin 21
Social Democrats 8 (+1)
Aontú 4 (+1)
Ind Ireland 4 (-1)
Labour 4
PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1)
Greens 2
Inds/others 9 (-2)

www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil see bounce in support after meeting with Donald Trump, new Sunday Independent poll shows
Fianna Fáil has seen a bounce in support after Taoiseach Micheál Martin endured a tense exchange with US President Donald Trump in advance of the tariffs war, the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thi...
m.independent.ie
April 5, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps to lowest level of support with party five points behind Fianna Fáil
Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps to lowest level of support with party five points behind Fianna Fáil
Simon Harris now finds his party one point below its previous lowest level of support in September 2022
www.businesspost.ie
March 29, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
We have added a new section on the accuracy (vote-poll error) of the Irish Polling Indicator estimates in all elections since 1987: pollingindicator.com#validation

Summary of changes: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-...

Thanks to @tomlouwerse.nl for help with updating the interactive graphs.
February 24, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
The @irishpollingind.bsky.social website has been updated:

– Revisions of all interactive graphs
– Details on accuracy in previous elections
– New datasets @harvarddataverse.bsky.social: daily estimates (1987–2024) and poll results (1983–2024): doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

➡️ pollingindicator.com
February 24, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Red C Poll analysis: No honeymoon for government as voters show buyer’s remorse
Red C Poll analysis: No honeymoon for government as voters show buyer’s remorse
The poor housing completion figures for last year came soon afterwards, providing no reprieve in pressure on the new government.
www.businesspost.ie
February 22, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
A large part of the Irish political science community is using this rainy weekend to finalise their chapter revisions for “How Ireland Voted 2024” (deadline: Monday).

Sneak preview of my chapter with Gail McElroy below. We validate and apply transformer models to measure salience and positions.
February 15, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Honoured to be Highly Commended in the Early Career Researcher of the Year (IRC Legacy) Awards 2024.

Thank you to @researchireland.bsky.social for hosting a memorable awards ceremony, and huge congrats to all winners – truly impressive research!

@ucddublin.bsky.social
www.ucd.ie/newsandopini...
January 17, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
The polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG.

Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys.
pollingindicator.com#validation
December 2, 2024 at 2:42 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Really enjoyed covering the campaign and election for @news.rte.ie and international outlets – ready for a break now.

A few times, the media got quite creative with my name.
Someone recommended: "just say 'Müller like the yoghurt'"😄
December 3, 2024 at 10:43 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
+1
Superb job by the pollsters and thanks a lot to all involved with @irishpollingind.bsky.social, which provides invaluable public service.
December 3, 2024 at 9:43 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Credit to the Irish pollsters for absolutely nailing #GE24

FF: 21.5% (polls) vs 21.9% (result)
FG: 21% vs 20.8%
SF: 19.5% vs 19%

Polling averages via @irishpollingind.bsky.social
December 2, 2024 at 1:12 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Nice graph by @markcoughlan.bsky.social comparing the latest estimates from each pollster with the #GE24 Exit Poll.

It looks very consistent, with barely any differences between face-to-face (Ipsos B&A) online polls (Red C, Ireland Thinks, Opinions).

📊 www.rte.ie/news/primeti...
November 30, 2024 at 7:39 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
From Covid to Kanturk: aggregated support for parties and Independents throughout the electoral cycle (February 2020 to November 2024), based on 154 opinion polls.

Latest estimates: pollingindicator.com
Data: github.com/Irish-Pollin...
#GE24
November 28, 2024 at 7:31 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
I am really glad that @stefanmueller.bsky.social is keeping the Irish Polling Indicator up to date. Currently the four largest parties/actors are very close. But: polls are (imperfect) estimates for the situation now, might still change in the days running up to the elections! pollingindicator.com
November 25, 2024 at 10:39 AM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
My @news.rte.ie article today focuses on trends in voter turnout over time and in a comparative perspective, measurement issues, satisfaction with democracy, the age gap in turnout, and the implications of low turnout.
#GE24

➡️ www.rte.ie/news/electio...
November 24, 2024 at 9:16 AM
The @theguardian.com summarised party support over the past three years based on the Irish Polling Indicator ⤵️

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n...
#GE24
November 22, 2024 at 2:02 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
A lot of discussion about incumbency effects at the moment.

The plot below maps the trend since 1937. In Irish general elections, around 8 in 10 TDs who choose to stand again are re-elected. This re-election rate ranks among the highest in the world.

www.rte.ie/news/electio...
#GE24
1/2
November 21, 2024 at 10:07 AM
The article by @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ News from Sunday features the latest estimates and outlines the goal of the Irish Polling Indicator: to provide context for new polls rather than attempting to “compete” with pollsters or predict election outcomes.

www.rte.ie/news/2024/11...
#GE24
November 19, 2024 at 2:21 PM
Reposted by Irish Polling Indicator
Dashboard of Irish Party Manifestos

Our website contains over 85 manifestos from General, Local, and EP Elections.
You can read/download the documents or search for specific terms.

We’ll add more #GE24 manifestos as soon as they get published.

➡️ irishpoliticsdata.shinyapps.io/manifestoexp...
November 18, 2024 at 1:11 PM