https://pollingindicator.com
@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.
➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
@kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations.
➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)
➡️ pollingindicator.com
Sinn Féin: 24% (22.5–25.5)
Fine Gael: 19.5% (18–20.5)
Fianna Fáil: 19% (18–20)
Ind/Oth: 13.5% (12–15)
Soc Dems: 7.5% (6.5–8.5)
Lab: 4.5% (4–5.5)
Aontú: 4% (3–5)
II: 3.5% (3–4.5)
SPBP: 2.5% (2–3)
GP: 2.5% (2–2.5)
➡️ pollingindicator.com
SF: 21.5% [20–23]
FF: 20.5% [19–21.5]
FG: 18% [16.5–19.5]
Ind/Oth: 15% [13.5–17]
SD: 7.5% [6.5–8.5]
LAB: 5% [4–5.5]
II: 4% [3–5]
AÚ: 3.5% [3–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2–3]
SF: 21.5% [20–23]
FF: 20.5% [19–21.5]
FG: 18% [16.5–19.5]
Ind/Oth: 15% [13.5–17]
SD: 7.5% [6.5–8.5]
LAB: 5% [4–5.5]
II: 4% [3–5]
AÚ: 3.5% [3–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2–3]
Rory Costello shows that only one-third of respondents feel close to a party, and over 30% reported having voted for a different party in 2020.
Confirms that volatility and party affiliation differ from the typical European country.
Rory Costello shows that only one-third of respondents feel close to a party, and over 30% reported having voted for a different party in 2020.
Confirms that volatility and party affiliation differ from the typical European country.
The most streamlined project I’ve worked on – thanks to the editors’ clear instructions and tight deadlines.
1️⃣ Election: 29 Nov 2024
2️⃣ First drafts due just two months (!) after election day
3️⃣ Final version due 5 March 2025
The most streamlined project I’ve worked on – thanks to the editors’ clear instructions and tight deadlines.
1️⃣ Election: 29 Nov 2024
2️⃣ First drafts due just two months (!) after election day
3️⃣ Final version due 5 March 2025
SF: 24% [22.5–25.5]
FF: 22% [21–23]
FG: 18.5% [17.5–20]
Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13]
SD: 7% [6.5–8]
LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5]
II: 3.5% [3–4.5]
AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2.5–3]
➡️ pollingindicator.com
SF: 24% [22.5–25.5]
FF: 22% [21–23]
FG: 18.5% [17.5–20]
Ind/Oth: 11.5% [10–13]
SD: 7% [6.5–8]
LAB: 4% [3.5–4.5]
II: 3.5% [3–4.5]
AÚ: 3.5% [2.5–4.5]
SPBP: 3% [2.5–3.5]
GP: 2.5% [2.5–3]
➡️ pollingindicator.com
(April 3-4, MoE 2.2%)
Fianna Fáil 25 (+3 in five weeks)
Fine Gael 21 (-1)
Sinn Féin 21
Social Democrats 8 (+1)
Aontú 4 (+1)
Ind Ireland 4 (-1)
Labour 4
PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1)
Greens 2
Inds/others 9 (-2)
www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
(April 3-4, MoE 2.2%)
Fianna Fáil 25 (+3 in five weeks)
Fine Gael 21 (-1)
Sinn Féin 21
Social Democrats 8 (+1)
Aontú 4 (+1)
Ind Ireland 4 (-1)
Labour 4
PBP-Solidarity 3 (+1)
Greens 2
Inds/others 9 (-2)
www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
Summary of changes: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-...
Thanks to @tomlouwerse.nl for help with updating the interactive graphs.
Summary of changes: pollingindicator.com/blog/update-...
Thanks to @tomlouwerse.nl for help with updating the interactive graphs.
– Revisions of all interactive graphs
– Details on accuracy in previous elections
– New datasets @harvarddataverse.bsky.social: daily estimates (1987–2024) and poll results (1983–2024): doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
➡️ pollingindicator.com
– Revisions of all interactive graphs
– Details on accuracy in previous elections
– New datasets @harvarddataverse.bsky.social: daily estimates (1987–2024) and poll results (1983–2024): doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
➡️ pollingindicator.com
Sneak preview of my chapter with Gail McElroy below. We validate and apply transformer models to measure salience and positions.
Sneak preview of my chapter with Gail McElroy below. We validate and apply transformer models to measure salience and positions.
Thank you to @researchireland.bsky.social for hosting a memorable awards ceremony, and huge congrats to all winners – truly impressive research!
@ucddublin.bsky.social
www.ucd.ie/newsandopini...
Thank you to @researchireland.bsky.social for hosting a memorable awards ceremony, and huge congrats to all winners – truly impressive research!
@ucddublin.bsky.social
www.ucd.ie/newsandopini...
Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys.
pollingindicator.com#validation
Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys.
pollingindicator.com#validation
A few times, the media got quite creative with my name.
Someone recommended: "just say 'Müller like the yoghurt'"😄
A few times, the media got quite creative with my name.
Someone recommended: "just say 'Müller like the yoghurt'"😄
Superb job by the pollsters and thanks a lot to all involved with @irishpollingind.bsky.social, which provides invaluable public service.
Superb job by the pollsters and thanks a lot to all involved with @irishpollingind.bsky.social, which provides invaluable public service.
FF: 21.5% (polls) vs 21.9% (result)
FG: 21% vs 20.8%
SF: 19.5% vs 19%
Polling averages via @irishpollingind.bsky.social
FF: 21.5% (polls) vs 21.9% (result)
FG: 21% vs 20.8%
SF: 19.5% vs 19%
Polling averages via @irishpollingind.bsky.social
It looks very consistent, with barely any differences between face-to-face (Ipsos B&A) online polls (Red C, Ireland Thinks, Opinions).
📊 www.rte.ie/news/primeti...
It looks very consistent, with barely any differences between face-to-face (Ipsos B&A) online polls (Red C, Ireland Thinks, Opinions).
📊 www.rte.ie/news/primeti...
Latest estimates: pollingindicator.com
Data: github.com/Irish-Pollin...
#GE24
Latest estimates: pollingindicator.com
Data: github.com/Irish-Pollin...
#GE24
#GE24
➡️ www.rte.ie/news/electio...
#GE24
➡️ www.rte.ie/news/electio...
www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n...
#GE24
www.theguardian.com/world/2024/n...
#GE24
The plot below maps the trend since 1937. In Irish general elections, around 8 in 10 TDs who choose to stand again are re-elected. This re-election rate ranks among the highest in the world.
www.rte.ie/news/electio...
#GE24
1/2
The plot below maps the trend since 1937. In Irish general elections, around 8 in 10 TDs who choose to stand again are re-elected. This re-election rate ranks among the highest in the world.
www.rte.ie/news/electio...
#GE24
1/2
www.rte.ie/news/2024/11...
#GE24
www.rte.ie/news/2024/11...
#GE24
Our website contains over 85 manifestos from General, Local, and EP Elections.
You can read/download the documents or search for specific terms.
We’ll add more #GE24 manifestos as soon as they get published.
➡️ irishpoliticsdata.shinyapps.io/manifestoexp...
Our website contains over 85 manifestos from General, Local, and EP Elections.
You can read/download the documents or search for specific terms.
We’ll add more #GE24 manifestos as soon as they get published.
➡️ irishpoliticsdata.shinyapps.io/manifestoexp...