Isabelle Guinaudeau
@iguinaudeau.bsky.social
Political scientist, CNRS researcher at Sciences Po, CEE - currently at Centre Marc Bloch in Berlin: researching comparative politics, party competition and how elections shape policy
Ce billet est tiré de notre chapitre dans French Democracy in Distress (Palgrave, 2025), codirigé par Elodie Druez, @frederic-gonthier.bsky.social, Camille Kelbel, Nonna Mayer, Felix-Christopher von Nostiz et @vtiberj.bsky.social. Lecture idoine pour s’y retrouver dans la crise politique actuelle !
January 26, 2026 at 11:13 AM
Ce billet est tiré de notre chapitre dans French Democracy in Distress (Palgrave, 2025), codirigé par Elodie Druez, @frederic-gonthier.bsky.social, Camille Kelbel, Nonna Mayer, Felix-Christopher von Nostiz et @vtiberj.bsky.social. Lecture idoine pour s’y retrouver dans la crise politique actuelle !
Résultat : des électeurs légitimement frustrés et des représentants bien en peine de tirer de l’élection un mandat lisible et de gouverner.
December 16, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Résultat : des électeurs légitimement frustrés et des représentants bien en peine de tirer de l’élection un mandat lisible et de gouverner.
Mais cette justification ne tient plus : dans une France structurée en trois blocs (comme le montre notre graphe sur l'évolution du vote pour les plus grandes formations), la mécanique majoritaire conserve ses biais… mais sans plus parvenir à produire de majorité.
December 16, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Mais cette justification ne tient plus : dans une France structurée en trois blocs (comme le montre notre graphe sur l'évolution du vote pour les plus grandes formations), la mécanique majoritaire conserve ses biais… mais sans plus parvenir à produire de majorité.
Longtemps, on a toléré ces distorsions au de la gouvernabilité. L’idée était qu’un système majoritaire fabrique une majorité claire et permette à un camp de gouverner.
December 16, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Longtemps, on a toléré ces distorsions au de la gouvernabilité. L’idée était qu’un système majoritaire fabrique une majorité claire et permette à un camp de gouverner.
⚠️ Problème n°2 : une fois les votes exprimés, la traduction en sièges produit de nouvelles distorsions de représentation : aucun pays européen n'atteint un tel écart entre % de voix et % de sièges.
Qui profite de ces effets ? Les plus grands partis.
Qui profite de ces effets ? Les plus grands partis.
December 16, 2025 at 10:09 AM
⚠️ Problème n°2 : une fois les votes exprimés, la traduction en sièges produit de nouvelles distorsions de représentation : aucun pays européen n'atteint un tel écart entre % de voix et % de sièges.
Qui profite de ces effets ? Les plus grands partis.
Qui profite de ces effets ? Les plus grands partis.
With @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social, we are designing a survey experiment with low-income Germans 🇩🇪 Survey folks: any tips on reliable institutes, good practices, or any useful approach for harder-to-reach groups? We are really grateful for any hint or experience 🙏
November 24, 2025 at 10:32 AM
With @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social, we are designing a survey experiment with low-income Germans 🇩🇪 Survey folks: any tips on reliable institutes, good practices, or any useful approach for harder-to-reach groups? We are really grateful for any hint or experience 🙏
The need to relax Germany’s constitutional debt brake isn’t new. 🔴 SPD and 🟢 Greens have long made the case that the situation (in particular with regard to infrastructures and climate transition) would become intractable otherwise. Merz and the ⚫️ CDU knew this.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The need to relax Germany’s constitutional debt brake isn’t new. 🔴 SPD and 🟢 Greens have long made the case that the situation (in particular with regard to infrastructures and climate transition) would become intractable otherwise. Merz and the ⚫️ CDU knew this.
Merz’s U-turn on the debt brake could thus be seen as an example of coalition constraints: election pledges meet the realities of bargaining. Compromise is inevitable when multiple parties must govern together. But there’s more to the story.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Merz’s U-turn on the debt brake could thus be seen as an example of coalition constraints: election pledges meet the realities of bargaining. Compromise is inevitable when multiple parties must govern together. But there’s more to the story.
... and the SPD has made relaxing the debt brake a precondition. Important pledges (which we measure as those repeated several times in the program) are pushed by the coalition partners and more likely to survive:
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
... and the SPD has made relaxing the debt brake a precondition. Important pledges (which we measure as those repeated several times in the program) are pushed by the coalition partners and more likely to survive:
This should favor the CDU which controls almost twice as many seats as the SPD. At the same time, the SPD is pivotal for government-formation. The CDU has not much alternative.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
This should favor the CDU which controls almost twice as many seats as the SPD. At the same time, the SPD is pivotal for government-formation. The CDU has not much alternative.
8/ Larger parties dominate negotiations and secure more (up to 75%) of their pledges, while small parties place much less (down to 40% for the Greens in 2002). Gamson's Law seems to extend from office to policy payoffs.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
8/ Larger parties dominate negotiations and secure more (up to 75%) of their pledges, while small parties place much less (down to 40% for the Greens in 2002). Gamson's Law seems to extend from office to policy payoffs.
7/ Contentious promises (even those repeated loudly in campaigns) are often filtered out. Coalition agreements are shaped by consensus.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
7/ Contentious promises (even those repeated loudly in campaigns) are often filtered out. Coalition agreements are shaped by consensus.
6/ Our analysis of 6,275 electoral pledges and coalition agreements in Germany over 20 years shows that many campaign pledges do not survive coalition negotiations. Are there any patterns?
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
6/ Our analysis of 6,275 electoral pledges and coalition agreements in Germany over 20 years shows that many campaign pledges do not survive coalition negotiations. Are there any patterns?
5/ Following the elections in February, a new CDU-SPD grand coalition is being formed. Both have agreed to reform the debt brake — a red line emphasized by the CDU during the whole campaign (see their website below).
This reform will unlock €1,000 billion in new borrowing.
This reform will unlock €1,000 billion in new borrowing.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
5/ Following the elections in February, a new CDU-SPD grand coalition is being formed. Both have agreed to reform the debt brake — a red line emphasized by the CDU during the whole campaign (see their website below).
This reform will unlock €1,000 billion in new borrowing.
This reform will unlock €1,000 billion in new borrowing.
The coalition lost its financial foundation when the Constitutional Court blocked the reallocation of 60 billion € Covid funds.
➡️ Scholz called early elections.
➡️ Scholz called early elections.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The coalition lost its financial foundation when the Constitutional Court blocked the reallocation of 60 billion € Covid funds.
➡️ Scholz called early elections.
➡️ Scholz called early elections.
The current German deadlock was already about policy conflict in the outgoing coalition:
🟡 The FDP made budget discipline non-negotiable.
🔴 The SPD and 🟢 Greens insisted on massive investments (climate, defense, infrastructure).
🟡 The FDP made budget discipline non-negotiable.
🔴 The SPD and 🟢 Greens insisted on massive investments (climate, defense, infrastructure).
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
The current German deadlock was already about policy conflict in the outgoing coalition:
🟡 The FDP made budget discipline non-negotiable.
🔴 The SPD and 🟢 Greens insisted on massive investments (climate, defense, infrastructure).
🟡 The FDP made budget discipline non-negotiable.
🔴 The SPD and 🟢 Greens insisted on massive investments (climate, defense, infrastructure).
We look at how coalition partners negotiate policy, frequently resulting in reversal on pledges. While research (notably by the great @theresmatthiess.bsky.social) shows that coalition agreements are well implemented, we know less about how well these agreements reflect the partners’ promises.
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
We look at how coalition partners negotiate policy, frequently resulting in reversal on pledges. While research (notably by the great @theresmatthiess.bsky.social) shows that coalition agreements are well implemented, we know less about how well these agreements reflect the partners’ promises.
🧵 Germany is heading toward a new ⚫️🔴GroKo, and Merz and SPD are pushing through a constitutional reform that will allow €1.000 billion in new debt. What happened to the CDU’s promise of budgetary rigor?
Our WP with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social sheds light on this. Let’s talk coalition politics.👇
Our WP with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social sheds light on this. Let’s talk coalition politics.👇
March 20, 2025 at 2:45 PM
🧵 Germany is heading toward a new ⚫️🔴GroKo, and Merz and SPD are pushing through a constitutional reform that will allow €1.000 billion in new debt. What happened to the CDU’s promise of budgetary rigor?
Our WP with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social sheds light on this. Let’s talk coalition politics.👇
Our WP with @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social sheds light on this. Let’s talk coalition politics.👇
The President can activate art. 16 and exert both the executive and legislative powers for a limited period, after consultation with the president of both assemblies and the PM. He has met all three today.
December 5, 2024 at 4:04 PM
The President can activate art. 16 and exert both the executive and legislative powers for a limited period, after consultation with the president of both assemblies and the PM. He has met all three today.
Some suggest that Macron might argue the functioning of the State is at stake and use his full powers to pass the 2025 budget before the end of the year.
December 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Some suggest that Macron might argue the functioning of the State is at stake and use his full powers to pass the 2025 budget before the end of the year.
Macron cannot dissolve Parliament until June. He excludes so far resigning. He could:
- Reappoint Barnier
- Try to form a "technical" government
- Search for a new PM.
- Reappoint Barnier
- Try to form a "technical" government
- Search for a new PM.
December 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Macron cannot dissolve Parliament until June. He excludes so far resigning. He could:
- Reappoint Barnier
- Try to form a "technical" government
- Search for a new PM.
- Reappoint Barnier
- Try to form a "technical" government
- Search for a new PM.
Anticipating that the bill on social security funding would not garner majority support, Barnier tried to bypass Parliament by tying the bill to a confidence vote procedure (49.3): if no vote brings down government, the law is passed.
December 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Anticipating that the bill on social security funding would not garner majority support, Barnier tried to bypass Parliament by tying the bill to a confidence vote procedure (49.3): if no vote brings down government, the law is passed.
Le Pen took credit from decisions that were actually pushed by other groups (e.g. on pensions, drug reimbursement) and the government's communication helped her to take this credit.
December 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Le Pen took credit from decisions that were actually pushed by other groups (e.g. on pensions, drug reimbursement) and the government's communication helped her to take this credit.
RN acted as kingmaker and saboteur. While blocking taxes on electricity and cuts to business subsidies, the RN pressured Barnier on immigration, pensions, and social security cuts. Barnier made concessions, including cutting state medical assistance for illegal immigrants.
December 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM
RN acted as kingmaker and saboteur. While blocking taxes on electricity and cuts to business subsidies, the RN pressured Barnier on immigration, pensions, and social security cuts. Barnier made concessions, including cutting state medical assistance for illegal immigrants.
Their budget faced attacks from all groups and France is also subject to an excessive deficit procedure and must make huge cuts and/or raise taxes.
December 4, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Their budget faced attacks from all groups and France is also subject to an excessive deficit procedure and must make huge cuts and/or raise taxes.