Joost van Spanje
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joostvanspanje.bsky.social
Joost van Spanje
@joostvanspanje.bsky.social

Professor of Political Science, RH University of London

elections | new parties | cordons sanitaires | hate speech | militant democracy | political communication

Bitcoin and politics, media & public opinion

ERC Consolidator Grant | NWO Veni & Vidi .. more

Political science 64%
Sociology 12%
Pinned
The Green Deal is incomplete.

The analogy is the US New Deal.

But that deal addressed economic worries that everyone shared.

Today's EU sees the higher educated worry about climate change while others worry about immigration.

The deal addresses only the former.

We need a Green-Immigration Deal.

Reposted by Joost van Spanje

Kennelijk vroeg ik vijf jaar geleden aan @sldelange.bsky.social en @joostvanspanje.bsky.social wat de voor- en nadelen van een minderheidskabinet zijn.

Hun antwoorden van toen zijn nog steeds relevant:

www.nu.nl/formatie-202...
Dit zijn de voor- en nadelen van een minderheidskabinet volgens de experts
Een kabinet van partijen met een meerderheid in de Tweede Kamer lijkt na de bezwaren van VVD en CDA tegen PvdA én GroenLinks niet langer haalbaar. Daarom wordt er in Den Haag hardop nagedacht over een...
www.nu.nl

"the closest precedent for dealing with Venezuelan debt is the savage (..) diktat that resulted in Iraq's creditors getting roughly 10 cents on the dollar"

Like Venezuela, Iraq had immense resources, experienced collapse and could have satisfied its debt
- but only at the cost of delaying recovery.

Great piece by @emmarjanssen.bsky.social:

"insiders shouldn’t get rich off of policy decisions—but even more concerning is the possibility that people are skewing policy outcomes to make their bets pay off
(..)
Donald Trump Jr., adviser to Kalshi & Polymarket, has invested millions into Polymarket"
A whale went on Polymarket a few days ago & earned $400,000 correctly predicting Maduro's capture.
@emmarjanssen.bsky.social had already been studying how easy it would be for White House officials to use prediction markets to self-enrich based on their own policy decisions.
This is a great report.
Monetizing Regime Change - The American Prospect
It is trivially easy for administration officials to use prediction markets to bet on the policies they authorize. We may have just seen it in Venezuela.
prospect.org

Reposted by Joost van Spanje

A whale went on Polymarket a few days ago & earned $400,000 correctly predicting Maduro's capture.
@emmarjanssen.bsky.social had already been studying how easy it would be for White House officials to use prediction markets to self-enrich based on their own policy decisions.
This is a great report.
Monetizing Regime Change - The American Prospect
It is trivially easy for administration officials to use prediction markets to bet on the policies they authorize. We may have just seen it in Venezuela.
prospect.org

Great point.

Nor is there any reason to believe the US government is interested in bringing democracy or in anything else but US elite interests.

Just as for previous governments during previous involvement in Latin America, authoritarianism will typically do, as long as it serves these interests.

You may have a rough day, but imagine winning the Nobel Peace Prize, then dedicating that award to a U.S. President who had already illegally bombed countries, and even lauding his illegal bombing of your own country, only to get trashed by him before an audience of millions worldwide that same day.

Een afrekening in het criminele circuit. Gaan we nog vaker zien dit jaar, vrees ik.

Vlotjes geschreven, vaak leerzaam, altijd interessant:

het boek met de geweldige titel "Het kon minder: De lessen van Johan Remkes" door Thijs Broer en Peter Kee (2025).

Vele dossiers waar Remkes zich sinds de jaren zeventig, gevraagd of (soms) ongevraagd, tegenaan heeft bemoeid passeren de revue.

De EO brengt The Lobster in de praktijk.

Reposted by Joost van Spanje

Herhaalde oproep. Juist in deze tijd is het belangrijk een kritische, diepgravende, doorvragende en uitleggende publicatie te steunen. Follow the Money is dat.
Word lid! Ze zijn bijna bij de 50.000!
www.ftm.nl/word-lid

Yesterday in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl:

"The world's 25 richest families have gained another $358.7 billion this year, thanks in part to their oil and gas reserves.
(..)
ultra-rich burden the environment many times more than others
(..)
role of inheritances is becoming increasingly important".

Reposted by Joost van Spanje

🫨How do voters respond to economic shocks from abroad?

➡️ @costinciobanu.bsky.social & @joostvanspanje.bsky.social show that after the 2008 Lehman collapse, economic satisfaction fell but voters rallied behind incumbents in several European countries www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
Happy to see my article with @joostvanspanje.bsky.social on the short-term political consequences of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy announcement published in @psrm.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl:

The European Commission wants to get rid of the 2035 ban on combustion engine cars.

Ignoring concerns among tens of millions citizens, the EC keeps protecting the bankrupt business model of the dirty part of the car industry despite its failures & scandals.

Reposted by Leo Lucassen

Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl, profs Wille & Bovens:

"Many have been calling for more control over migration since the 1990s.
As parties do not deliver on this issue, voters shift to the far right.
D66 ran a less elitist campaign: Dutch flag, emphasis on migration—progressive patriotism."

Today 25 years ago, Al Gore delivered his concession speech:

"Just as we fight hard when the stakes are high, we close ranks and come together when the contest is done
(..)
now is the time to recognize that that which unites us is greater than that which divides us."

Conclusion of a key 'what if'.

Uiteraard niet.

Maar er bestaat vrij brede consensus, van rechts tot centrumlinks, dat het immigratiebeleid voor verbetering vatbaar is.

Bijvoorbeeld: op gebied van tegengaan van de huidige horror van mensensmokkel, en de industrie van uitbuiting van arbeidsmigranten valt wellicht wel wat te doen.
PhD opportunity at the University of Oxford. The Morelli scholarship funds a doctoral student to work with me on on democratic backsliding, strategies of democratic defense and regeneration, or the rise of illiberalism. Deadline Jan 9. More information at users.ox.ac.uk/~ssfc0073/

Inderdaad.

En omgekeerd:
JA21 tegelijkertijd afwijzen en steun vragen voor (o.a.) 'GL-PvdA-beleid.'

Mijn advies:
gun GL-PvdA veel op groene thema's
en
in ruil daarvoor,
gun JA21 echt wat op migratiethema's.

Opdat beide partijen meewerken, om hun kiezers te bedienen.

En we eindelijk verder komen.

This hollowing out of the Green Deal results from a deal with the far right.

But voters do not vote far right to free corporations from red tape.

They typically vote far right based on migration, not addressed in the deal.

So, the EU lets down green *and* far right voters.

Expect radicalisation.

This is exactly the opposite of what the EU must do.

Watering down the Green Deal is hazardous long-term in many ways.

If only because millions of Europeans worry about environmental issues.

A way out of all our crises is tackling issues, one by one.

This only radicalizes many of these citizens.
🚨🚨Major #EU news: More than 80 percent of Europe’s companies will be freed from environmental reporting obligations after @europarl.europa.eu and @consilium.europa.eu reached a deal on a proposal to cut green rules on Monday. 🧵
www.politico.eu/article/eu-s...
EU closes deal to slash green rules in major win for von der Leyen’s deregulation drive
Controversial “omnibus” bill saw center-right EU lawmakers side with the far right to water down environmental standards.
www.politico.eu

Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl:

"The entrepreneurs are planning new destinations, including Frankfurt, Basel, Munich, Bruges and Paris.

They've been in talks with the Dutch Railways (NS) "for years" about selling its tickets through the NS app but according to the NS that's not possible."

Democrats "should voluntarily limit contributions from wealthy individuals levels and reject corporate PAC money entirely
(..)
while still out fundraising Republicans.
(..)
doing so would give them something money can’t buy:
the credibility to make corruption the central issue of the next election."
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com
Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:
Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse.
Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.
open.substack.com

Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl:

First Dutch company to issue €uro-pegged stablecoins launched.

May become alternatives to credit cards and int'l bank payments.

Around $ 400 billion has already been issued in stablecoins in the US.

The €uro stablecoin market is less than 1% of the total.

Great book, recommended.
📣 #MilitantDemocracy out in #OpenAccess @routledgebooks.bsky.social!

📝 Offers one of the first comprehensive theories of #democraticselfdefence. Great to see it’s still relevant to current debates.

🎂 This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Dutch edition!

www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-mon...

Reposted by Joost van Spanje

📣 #MilitantDemocracy out in #OpenAccess @routledgebooks.bsky.social!

📝 Offers one of the first comprehensive theories of #democraticselfdefence. Great to see it’s still relevant to current debates.

🎂 This month marks the 10th anniversary of the Dutch edition!

www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-mon...

Theoretisch opgeleiden zijn bezorgd over klimaat en natuur; andere groepen vooral over immigratie en integratie.

Een uitruil ligt voor de hand.

De vandaag gepresenteerde D66-CDA-agenda gaat in de richting van zo'n uitruil, met enerzijds "groene" wensen en anderzijds de wens tot "grip op migratie".
Political Scientists: I am the chair of the committee that is picking the next editor of @polbehavior.bsky.social. If you are interested, I'd be happy to chat about it (and I know the current editors would be too).

You can find the call for proposals here:
Political Behavior
NOTE FROM THE EDITORS OF POLITICAL BEHAVIOR: We have recently transitioned from Editorial Manager to SNAPP. The submission process for SNAPP requires ...
link.springer.com