Professor of Political Science, RH University of London
elections | new parties | cordons sanitaires | hate speech | militant democracy | political communication
Bitcoin and politics, media & public opinion
ERC Consolidator Grant | NWO Veni & Vidi ..
more
Professor of Political Science, RH University of London
elections | new parties | cordons sanitaires | hate speech | militant democracy | political communication
Bitcoin and politics, media & public opinion
ERC Consolidator Grant | NWO Veni & Vidi
The analogy is the US New Deal.
But that deal addressed economic worries that everyone shared.
Today's EU sees the higher educated worry about climate change while others worry about immigration.
The deal addresses only the former.
We need a Green-Immigration Deal.
Reposted by Joost van Spanje
There are 2 possibilities.
Either these politicians are wrong.
If so, they'll be defeated and replaced.
Or some of my colleagues are wrong.
This is a bold call, distilling "the right lesson" from only few studies and elections.
On 27 March, a British man overpowered a man on Dam Square, who had stabbed 5 passersby.
Yesterday, the Londoner made a one-time appearance.
He asks that his last name be withheld.
"I'm not on social media either. I don't care for all that attention-seeking."
Reposted by Joost van Spanje
"Europe has every opportunity to become a prosperous global leader in sustainability
(..)
a revolution greater than the invention of the wheel
(..)
What's happening in China with the growth of wind, solar and electrolysis is insane."
The Dutch "1917 Pacificatie" offered something to both sides:
the socialists got universal suffrage,
the religious bloc public school funding.
The Green Deal addresses only worries of the higher educated.
It must not be weakened but expanded to also offer change to other groups.
Reposted by Cas Mudde, Scott Clifford, Joost van Spanje , and 1 more Cas Mudde, Scott Clifford, Joost van Spanje, Bonnie N. Field
In this article, I challenge claims of a generational rise of conservative men. In the media and recent academic publications, the so-called ‘youth gender gap’ has been interpreted as a generational phenomenon.
doi.org/10.31234/osf...
How the police handle personal data may not comply with legal requirements.
In the case of a climate activist, the police requested data 350 times, including about his parents and children.
The activist filed a complaint.
But the police refused to process it.
"Minister Paul (VVD) decided well before the elections to not implement rules to protect migrant workers, but only announced it after election day.
Because Paul's decision had not yet been announced, no one could question her party leader about it in the debates."
Many others worry about migration.
But Dutch governments subsidised polluters.
And defended the interests of companies that exploit migrant workers - and donate to parties.
The result?
Radicalisation on both ends.
Jetten-I must do better.
Reposted by Diane Coyle, Joanna Bryson, Ben H. Ansell , and 19 more Diane Coyle, Joanna Bryson, Ben H. Ansell, Mark J. Brandt, Justin H. Kirkland, Chris Hanretty, Robert Huber, Benjamin Braun, Markus Wagner, Ariadne Vromen, Thomas M. Meyer, Nazita Lajevardi, Sebastian Karcher, Jens Rydgren, Marta Kołczyńska, Werner Krause, Federica Genovese, Stuart J. Turnbull‐Dugarte, Joost van Spanje, Björn Bremer, Maria Sobolewska, Anita Gohdes
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/the-college/...
"death march from Eritrea
(..)
torture, rape, locked up with 1,000 others, forced to call family to extort more money while beaten so they hear the screams at home
(..)
The number of Eritreans seeking asylum doubled this year."
Contrary to what she said, VVD minister Paul maintained a migrant workers housing scheme without asking stakeholder advice.
"Abolishing it would make them less dependent on employers, as losing their job would not mean losing home."
www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2025/...
The murder of a lawyer in 2019 made judges sentence Dutch citizens of Moroccan descent 71% harsher on average in the weeks after.
The researchers who discovered it call it a salience effect - judges paying more attention to particular traits that a suspect has.
Reposted by Robbert Sanderman
"Almost 1,000,000 labor migrants in the country
(..)
a third of employers does not comply with housing regulations
(..)
80% of employees in greenhouses and meat packing are labor migrants
(..)
85% of the greenhouse produce and 75% of the meat is for export."
Hij is pessimistisch: "migratie moet worden teruggebracht" maar hij ziet geen beleid dat GL, VVD & PVV omarmen.
Ik zeg: zelfs GL-PvdA stelt een max voor - en midden & rechts zijn het redelijk eens op migratie.
Door het effect van imiteren & isoleren verliest hij.
VVD, JA21, FvD & BBB bieden de kiezer grosso modo dezelfde migratierestricties.
Tegelijk wijst iedereen erop dat Wilders buitenspel staat.
In de laatste peiling staat hij op 34, lijkt me sterk dat hij dat haalt.
En in een interview in Knack betwijfelde ik op 16 oktober of Wilders 30 zetels zou halen.
Geen sluitend bewijs voor een effect van isoleren en imiteren, wel weer een aanwijzing.
En wat is onlogisch aan de opkomst van extreem-/radicaal-rechts?
Inderdaad ongure types, maar veel kiezers zien problemen met immigratiebeleid en zouden "zelfs op de duivel stemmen om die problemen opgelost te krijgen."
Zie bv:
sargasso.nl/kroniek-aang...
Jetten heeft juist een draai gemaakt op immigratie (sinds juni) en heeft vaderlandsliefde geclaimd (zie vlaggen).
De kiezers die hij trok zijn dan ook diverser dan die van Kaag, o.a. meer immigratiekritische.
Zij willen dat D66 immigratie-problemen aanpakt.
Kaag past daar niet bij.
Not surprising, given his right turn last June.
As the likely next PM, he must somehow address the problems these citizens see.
Otherwise he'll be replaced by the next politician who promises to do so.
Of kiezers met grote zorgen over immigratie:
In 2023 gaven ze een signaal af via een PVV-stem.
Maar PVV loste niks op.
Nu maakte D66 een draai en beloofde problemen die ze zien aan te pakken.
Als 't de 2e optie is, is dit geen ruis, maar een sterk signaal.
As usual, the PVV underperformed.
However, the growing gap has ceased to widen.
gen. election 2006:
4% in Amsterdam versus 5.9% countrywide
2010:
9 v 15.4%
2012:
6% v 10.1%
2017:
7 v 13.1%
2021:
5 v 10.8%
2023:
9.6 v 23.6%
2025 (prelim):
6.9 v 16.7%
Geert Wilders isolated again.
A rival, JA21, has gained a foothold.
More econ right profile, but similarly tough on migration.
In 2017-18, PVV voters massively went to FvD.
In 2022-23, PVV lost many votes to BBB.
Will many more switch to JA21 now?
sargasso.nl/geerts-achil...
Young, from a progressive party and having unexpectedly risen to power, he will have to cooperate with the right, fighting off left and far right blocs.
Just as Macron, he may have to take a right turn to do so.