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Tim Bale

Tim Bale

@timbale.bsky.social

28K followers 1K following 3.3K posts

Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London & author of The Conservative Party after Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation (now out in paperback). The bits and pieces I do for websites and newspapers turn up eventually at https://proftimbale.com .. more

Timothy Paul Bale is an English political scientist who is professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London.

Source: Wikipedia

Political science 83%

Sociology 6%

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Posts Replies Media Videos

Reposted by Tim Bale, Thomas Pink

Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 6h

Brilliant thecritic.co.uk/auntie-in-th...

Reposted by Tim Bale, Philip Cowley

Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social · 13h

I enjoyed a rare privilege today: seeing one of my new journal articles in print.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 14h

No pressure then....

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17h

Implications of all this? People have to have greater confidence in the economy. It is fundamental for Labour’s support, and fundamental to households. The stakes couldn’t be higher for Rachel Reeves this week.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 15h

Andy Sparrow. Sensible, wise, smart.

www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 15h

Proofing 'The British General Election of 2024'. Here's Nigel Farage on election night 😆:

"If we had got 25 [seats] we wouldn’t have been entirely sure who or what we got. But we have five very solid sensible people who will be able to really push on … There will be no embarrassments...."

Reposted by Tim Bale

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17h

Implications of all this? People have to have greater confidence in the economy. It is fundamental for Labour’s support, and fundamental to households. The stakes couldn’t be higher for Rachel Reeves this week.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17h

If people become insecure, we find they’re three times more likely to desert Labour than if they become more concerned about immigration. Around one-third of Britons felt economically insecure as of April 2025.

Focusing on immigration is a ‘red herring’ when financial security is so foundational.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers , and 1 more Jonathan Portes, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers, Tim Bale

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17h

NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?

Read on for our answer...

@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 19h

REDACTED.

Reposted by Tim Bale

john bone @johnbone.bsky.social · 19h

simpler times indeed.

On the 1979 bbc results show Butler et al made their first call after just 22 seats declared. All holds, but markedly uneven swings. No exit polls of course.

Final outcome 269/339/11

screenshot from bbc 1979 general election results coverage, showing a graphic predicting Lab 271 seats, Con 337 and Lib 9.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 19h

In 1974, Dennis and David got the Feb book out before the Oct election. Life was different then.

Reposted by Tim Bale

Fionna O’Leary @fascinatorfun.bsky.social · 19h

Quite: the Wanna Piece of Ukraine Plan.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

Fair point, well made. "But Jesus, said unto them, A prophet is not without honour, but in his own country, and among his own kin, and in his own house." Mark, 6:4

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

Overnight - and have been practicing that pout for ages!

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

Now *that* is an analogy that *hasn't* occurred to me.

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

Tell me about it. "Apparently, there used to be these things called (checks notes) the Conservative and Labour parties that used to compete with each other to see who could run the country, and...."

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

Yep - of all the 'what if' moments, that is a biggie!

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

That analogy has, I admit, been occurring to me with ever greater frequency....

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

(Cough) May even be available for Christmas for all I know!

Front cover of Ford, Bale, Jennings and Surridge, 'The British General Election of 2024'.

Reposted by Philip Cowley

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 20h

The Tories are plumbing such depths these days that my whole business model is in severe danger, so thought I better go back to talking about Labour now and then! Here's me on CNN just now on the trouble they (and Keir Starmer) are in.

CNN Newsroom Live-2025-11-24.mp4

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Reposted by Tim Bale, Stuart Elden, Nils B. Weidmann , and 4 more Tim Bale, Stuart Elden, Nils B. Weidmann, Jörg Oechssler, Brett Christophers, Todd Pugatch, Bartosz Bartkowski

Mark Fabian @markfabian.bsky.social · 20h

Recently did around 30 requests to ppl who'd published very similar papers to the one I needed reviews for. 3 declines, 25 no response. Please at least decline guys it slows stuff down so much otherwise.

Bartosz Bartkowski @bartoszbartk.com · 21h

I'm still relatively new to this journal associate editor business, but it already sucks… I've had a paper on my desk for more than a month now:

Reviewers invited: 12
Of those…
Declined: 5
No response: 7

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 21h

One of those things that remind you that you are - reassuringly - small and meaningless in the bigger scheme of things. (h/t @theobserveruk.bsky.social)

Roughly 4.5 billion years ago, the ancient planet Theia smashed into the Earth and some of the debris entered its orbit. This is the most widely accepted theory of how the moon came to be, although scientists have long wondered about the origin of Theia. A new study concludes it was probably formed in the inner solar system, between the Earth and the Sun. Studying fragments of Theia found on Earth, the researchers discovered that the two planets were built from the same materials. This explains why the moon’s chemical composition closely resembles the mantle of the Earth. Cosmic collisions happened a lot five billion years ago, when the solar system was busy and chaotic. They became less frequent after the planets settled into steady orbits, although simulations indicate that the Earth has a 1 per cent chance of crashing into Venus or Mars in three to four billion years.

Reposted by Tim Bale, Alistair Munro, Stuart Elden , and 1 more Tim Bale, Alistair Munro, Stuart Elden, Jörg Oechssler

Bartosz Bartkowski @bartoszbartk.com · 21h

I'm still relatively new to this journal associate editor business, but it already sucks… I've had a paper on my desk for more than a month now:

Reviewers invited: 12
Of those…
Declined: 5
No response: 7

Reposted by Diane Coyle, Steve Peers, Tim Bale , and 3 more Diane Coyle, Steve Peers, Tim Bale, Ariadne Vromen, Lisa Diedrich, Christina Pagel

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 1d

A 6% levy on international student fees was proposed in the Immigration White Paper. The impact is about £600 million, though very unevenly spread across institutions.

George Mann @sgfmann.bsky.social · 1d

i: Reeves to unveil £600m raid on foreign student
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday

George Mann @sgfmann.bsky.social · 1d

i: Reeves to unveil £600m raid on foreign student
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday

Reposted by Tim Bale

Heather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 1d

Here’s this week’s column, in which I beg the chancellor to go big this week - on both headroom and narrative - so that by next year, if she’s still here to deliver it, the budget will be boring, because we all know the plan 🙏🏻
www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Rachel Reeves, please, let’s make budgets boring again | Heather Stewart

Budgets need to be reassuringly dull with no repeat of this year’s long, drawn-out and chaotic buildup

www.theguardian.com

Reposted by Tim Bale

Paul Bernal @paulbernal.bsky.social · 1d

You wouldn’t know these great legal scholars. They go to another school.*

*not a law school

Reposted by Steve Peers, Tim Bale, Simon Lester

Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 1d

It is really weird how so many people that count themselves in the liberal bracket have just said 'fuck that I'm staying on X' regardless of the dark shit that is perpetrated on there by its owner.

Reposted by Tim Bale, Lesley A. Hall

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 1d

Of course in many respects everyone's life could be better. But that was always the case. There was never a time when life was particularly better than now.

So at what point in recent years did we start to expect that the government would take care of everything? And why?

Reposted by Gavin L. Foster, Tim Bale, Elizabeth Stokoe

Alice Roberts @profaliceroberts.bsky.social · 1d

“Have they given up? Are they just deciding to build up herd immunity by watching us die? The government has given up, hasn’t it? They are throwing us into the slaughterhouse.”
It’s not hindsight - we knew this at the time @drrachelclarke.com writes:
observer.co.uk/news/nationa...

I’ll never forget the horror of the Covid wards | The Observer