Tony Yates
@t0nyyates.bsky.social
Economist. Ex Prof / central banker. Macro, politics, money, central banks, finance, Brexit, covid, AI, climbing, MUFC, Blueskyism.
Reposted by Tony Yates
This is a fascinating paper. It's the first (afaik) to actually document food&drink&retail scheduling unpredictability using actual firm data.
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
Check out Hannah awesome JMP on job schedule unpredictability and how minimum wage policy affects such unpredictability: hannahfarkas.github.io/files/The_Ec...
November 25, 2025 at 5:03 PM
This is a fascinating paper. It's the first (afaik) to actually document food&drink&retail scheduling unpredictability using actual firm data.
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
It illustrates v clearly why unpredictable scheduling makes these jobs so difficult:
Reposted by Tony Yates
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Wealth tax and looser fiscal rules won’t save the Budget | British Politics and Policy at LSE
The narrative on the left that a wealth tax and looser fiscal rules would solve the Chancellor's 2025 Budget headaches has got out of hand.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 4:05 PM
My pre-budget take for the LSE Politics blog is up:
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Labour are unable to articulate any vision or sense of purpose.
Much of the left has convinced itself that government spending can be maintained without broad-based tax increases.
Not a great budget backdrop.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Unnecessary now as there is good availability of comfy tracky bottoms and sweatshirts that don't look like PJ's even though they really are.
Is it acceptable to wear pyjamas on a flight?
61% of Brits say no, echoing US transport secretary Sean Duffy who criticised PJ-clad passengers yesterday
However, generations differ: 71% of 18-24yr olds say it is acceptable, compared to 11% of over-65s
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
61% of Brits say no, echoing US transport secretary Sean Duffy who criticised PJ-clad passengers yesterday
However, generations differ: 71% of 18-24yr olds say it is acceptable, compared to 11% of over-65s
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
November 25, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Unnecessary now as there is good availability of comfy tracky bottoms and sweatshirts that don't look like PJ's even though they really are.
The Good Wife is a reasonable shout; The Marvellous Mrs Maisel; as @samfr.bsky.social says Westworld goes from great to unwatchable dross.
November 25, 2025 at 4:50 PM
The Good Wife is a reasonable shout; The Marvellous Mrs Maisel; as @samfr.bsky.social says Westworld goes from great to unwatchable dross.
Of course the Andy Capp in their heads [copyright @benansell.bsky.social ] drives a petrol van a lot so fuel duty has to be frozen.
November 25, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Of course the Andy Capp in their heads [copyright @benansell.bsky.social ] drives a petrol van a lot so fuel duty has to be frozen.
Reposted by Tony Yates
This is worse than Panorama's drama because:
(1) Trump is “the most openly corrupt president in American history” - beyond Nixon or Harding
(2) Trump did incite the January 6th riot. Any country with a functioning legal system would've jailed him, like Bolsonaro
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
(1) Trump is “the most openly corrupt president in American history” - beyond Nixon or Harding
(2) Trump did incite the January 6th riot. Any country with a functioning legal system would've jailed him, like Bolsonaro
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
Reith lecturer accuses BBC of censoring his remarks on Trump
Dutch writer Rutger Bregman says claim that Trump was ‘most openly corrupt president in US history’ was removed
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 1:13 PM
This is worse than Panorama's drama because:
(1) Trump is “the most openly corrupt president in American history” - beyond Nixon or Harding
(2) Trump did incite the January 6th riot. Any country with a functioning legal system would've jailed him, like Bolsonaro
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
(1) Trump is “the most openly corrupt president in American history” - beyond Nixon or Harding
(2) Trump did incite the January 6th riot. Any country with a functioning legal system would've jailed him, like Bolsonaro
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
ofc it never had a big audience, but it was sad for me personally as that was one of the few current affairs BBC outputs I consumed.
November 25, 2025 at 1:12 PM
ofc it never had a big audience, but it was sad for me personally as that was one of the few current affairs BBC outputs I consumed.
Oh yes particularly sad
November 25, 2025 at 1:04 PM
Oh yes particularly sad
Obvs it's very Bluesky to state something plainly that has already been stated ironically, but
November 25, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Obvs it's very Bluesky to state something plainly that has already been stated ironically, but
Reposted by Tony Yates
Looking at polling averages, Reform has dipped a little recently but it's largely because of Labour 24 voters who had been saying "don't know" now saying Green.
As DKs they were excluded but as Greens they are not, so Reform drop even though they have the same number of people supporting them.
As DKs they were excluded but as Greens they are not, so Reform drop even though they have the same number of people supporting them.
November 25, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Looking at polling averages, Reform has dipped a little recently but it's largely because of Labour 24 voters who had been saying "don't know" now saying Green.
As DKs they were excluded but as Greens they are not, so Reform drop even though they have the same number of people supporting them.
As DKs they were excluded but as Greens they are not, so Reform drop even though they have the same number of people supporting them.
Conjecture: they understood that it would blow up and were fine with that because then they can advertise that they were pro Trump hoping that this lowers the chance of him proceeding with legal action on the Panorama edit.
November 25, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Conjecture: they understood that it would blow up and were fine with that because then they can advertise that they were pro Trump hoping that this lowers the chance of him proceeding with legal action on the Panorama edit.
We all presume that this was the work of Robbie Gibb and others like him, so it's not surprising that Gibb admires the fruits of his own labour.
November 25, 2025 at 11:47 AM
We all presume that this was the work of Robbie Gibb and others like him, so it's not surprising that Gibb admires the fruits of his own labour.
Everyone is doing this ironically, but someone has to state it plainly. Chris Mason is exactly what is wrong with BBC politics coverage. Infantile coverage via soap opera and constant fawning over Reform and the archetypal Reform voter's supposed views.
Robbie Gibb describes the BBC's Political Editor Chris Mason as the "unsung hero of covering politics" and "absolutely first rate"
November 25, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Everyone is doing this ironically, but someone has to state it plainly. Chris Mason is exactly what is wrong with BBC politics coverage. Infantile coverage via soap opera and constant fawning over Reform and the archetypal Reform voter's supposed views.
Reposted by Tony Yates
Just a periodic reminder.
Wish people would stop saying Trump has done a U-turn on Ukraine. He does this every few weeks. Putin then makes a violent point of ignoring him. Trump's alleged change of heart is just a prelude to his next humiliation by Putin.
November 25, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Just a periodic reminder.
Combined with his articulation of why we should be relaxed about debt that the BoE bought.
November 25, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Combined with his articulation of why we should be relaxed about debt that the BoE bought.
Reposted by Tony Yates
Because people *still* don’t understand that overseas students subsidise home students. This is punishing everyone involved.
With Rachel Reeves reportedly set to apply a new tax on tuition fees paid by overseas students, most Britons support such a move at the previously mooted level of 6%
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
Support: 57%
Oppose: 18%
yougov.co.uk/topics/socie...
November 25, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Because people *still* don’t understand that overseas students subsidise home students. This is punishing everyone involved.
Reposted by Tony Yates
Reposted by Tony Yates
He’s a year older than me, also born and raised in London. He went to the same university but was a year above and went on to do graduate work at EUI. He then became an academic - I suspect his conception of the industrial working class was gained from TV and history books - and studying in Florence
November 25, 2025 at 10:17 AM
He’s a year older than me, also born and raised in London. He went to the same university but was a year above and went on to do graduate work at EUI. He then became an academic - I suspect his conception of the industrial working class was gained from TV and history books - and studying in Florence
Reposted by Tony Yates
How the Americans are poisoning not just their own democracy, but ours here in Europe, too.
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 10:34 AM
How the Americans are poisoning not just their own democracy, but ours here in Europe, too.
Reposted by Tony Yates
Not main point (see my other post) but depressing that Phillips happily regurgitates entirely fictional numbers invented by far-right trolls on X and attributes them to "experts" {and Times is happy to print this slop]
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
November 25, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Not main point (see my other post) but depressing that Phillips happily regurgitates entirely fictional numbers invented by far-right trolls on X and attributes them to "experts" {and Times is happy to print this slop]
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
archive.ph/RlXPj#select...
Reposted by Tony Yates
Has no one in the BBC heard of the Streisand effect?
Did everyone think, "oh, Rutger Bregman, he'll be cool with this"?
Did everyone think, "oh, Rutger Bregman, he'll be cool with this"?
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Has no one in the BBC heard of the Streisand effect?
Did everyone think, "oh, Rutger Bregman, he'll be cool with this"?
Did everyone think, "oh, Rutger Bregman, he'll be cool with this"?
Reposted by Tony Yates
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
November 25, 2025 at 9:26 AM
I wish I didn’t have to share this. But the BBC has decided to censor my first Reith Lecture.
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
They deleted the line in which I describe Donald Trump as “the most openly corrupt president in American history.” /1
Although you didn't need it - given their unqualified support for everything Trump is doing in the US - it's a hint of how Reform would treat the norms of democracy in the UK if they got into power.
Reform Party threatened legal action for critical news stories
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reform’s ‘Trumpian’ legal threats hint at more aggressive approach to media
Ultimatums sent to publications appear to intensify as Nigel Farage’s party rises in polls
www.theguardian.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:47 AM
Although you didn't need it - given their unqualified support for everything Trump is doing in the US - it's a hint of how Reform would treat the norms of democracy in the UK if they got into power.
Reposted by Tony Yates
Textbook example of how not to do this. Straight from the Laura Kuenssberg/Nick Robinson school of silly analogies.
November 25, 2025 at 9:35 AM
Textbook example of how not to do this. Straight from the Laura Kuenssberg/Nick Robinson school of silly analogies.
Reposted by Tony Yates
This BBC article gets right to the heart of my rants about modern media. The vast majority of big MAGA accounts were fake yet they’ve managed to find a handful of small Democrat fake accounts and given them equal merit. Fake Scot indie - yes. No mention of fake Reform or ‘English Patriot’ at all.
How X's new location feature exposed big US politics accounts
Dozens of pro-Trump accounts are being accused of misleading followers after the social media site began showing user locations.
www.bbc.com
November 25, 2025 at 9:27 AM
This BBC article gets right to the heart of my rants about modern media. The vast majority of big MAGA accounts were fake yet they’ve managed to find a handful of small Democrat fake accounts and given them equal merit. Fake Scot indie - yes. No mention of fake Reform or ‘English Patriot’ at all.