Sam Freedman
@samfr.bsky.social
Writes the most popular UK Substack (samf.substack.com)
Author of Sunday Times bestselling book "Failed State". (An Economist and Financial Times Book of the Year for 2024). Working on book two.
Senior fellow: Institute for Government
Author of Sunday Times bestselling book "Failed State". (An Economist and Financial Times Book of the Year for 2024). Working on book two.
Senior fellow: Institute for Government
Pinned
Fourth Anniversary Offer: get 25% off for your first year
Plus what we'll be writing about in 2026
samf.substack.com
It's our fourth anniversary at Comment is Freed today and we have a special offer to celebrate.
25% off for your first year.
We don't do these often so if you've been thinking of signing up now is the time
samf.substack.com/p/fourth-ann...
25% off for your first year.
We don't do these often so if you've been thinking of signing up now is the time
samf.substack.com/p/fourth-ann...
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Looking for something to do this weekend? Then try your hand at predicting what will happen in 2026.
50 questions - simply say how likely each is to occur, on a range of 0% (won't happen) to 100% (will definitely happen).
Any question can be skipped.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/2026-forec...
50 questions - simply say how likely each is to occur, on a range of 0% (won't happen) to 100% (will definitely happen).
Any question can be skipped.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/2026-forec...
2026 Forecasting Contest
A forecasting contest for 2026, featuring UK politics and global events.
www.edrith.co.uk
January 10, 2026 at 10:53 AM
Looking for something to do this weekend? Then try your hand at predicting what will happen in 2026.
50 questions - simply say how likely each is to occur, on a range of 0% (won't happen) to 100% (will definitely happen).
Any question can be skipped.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/2026-forec...
50 questions - simply say how likely each is to occur, on a range of 0% (won't happen) to 100% (will definitely happen).
Any question can be skipped.
www.edrith.co.uk/p/2026-forec...
Reposted by Sam Freedman
I just saw someone use the term "slopulism" and it's a very good word.
My proposed definition: "Junk policy aimed at populism-inclined voters which will go nowhere and achieve nothing but which strategists believe will win support."
My proposed definition: "Junk policy aimed at populism-inclined voters which will go nowhere and achieve nothing but which strategists believe will win support."
January 10, 2026 at 2:37 PM
I just saw someone use the term "slopulism" and it's a very good word.
My proposed definition: "Junk policy aimed at populism-inclined voters which will go nowhere and achieve nothing but which strategists believe will win support."
My proposed definition: "Junk policy aimed at populism-inclined voters which will go nowhere and achieve nothing but which strategists believe will win support."
I think it's very important that Rupert Lowe's "Million Nonce March" gets widespread media coverage. Critical to amplify diverse voices.
We go live to the Protect our girls crew, unsure what they are doing
January 10, 2026 at 2:05 PM
I think it's very important that Rupert Lowe's "Million Nonce March" gets widespread media coverage. Critical to amplify diverse voices.
Strongly of the view that East Asian breakfasts are far better than Western ones. Marie's is great but also some chilli oil noodles or a bit of fried mackeral with rice....
my daily breakfast - a bowl of warm sticky rice with soy sauce, sesame oil and some form of chilli oil topped with a crispy fried egg - is a delight all year round but truly I cannot begin to tell you how much it hits the spot on cold winter mornings, flawless start to the day every time
January 10, 2026 at 10:51 AM
Strongly of the view that East Asian breakfasts are far better than Western ones. Marie's is great but also some chilli oil noodles or a bit of fried mackeral with rice....
Reposted by Sam Freedman
I don’t think people realise how awful it is in Ukraine right now. Yesterday my friend posted how it’s -9 and because of the power cuts - due to Russian attacks - she has no heating. This is in Kyiv. And this is the day after a mass missile & drone strike killed four people.
January 10, 2026 at 9:02 AM
I don’t think people realise how awful it is in Ukraine right now. Yesterday my friend posted how it’s -9 and because of the power cuts - due to Russian attacks - she has no heating. This is in Kyiv. And this is the day after a mass missile & drone strike killed four people.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Absolutely magisterial interview with John Bew by @samfr.bsky.social and @ldfreedman.bsky.social. In a highly competitive field the most interesting thing I've read on Comment is Freed, on everything from the style of four administrations to our foreign policy challenges:
Interview with John Bew - adviser to four Prime Ministers
On Whitehall, Ukraine, Trump and the global challenges facing Britain
samf.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Absolutely magisterial interview with John Bew by @samfr.bsky.social and @ldfreedman.bsky.social. In a highly competitive field the most interesting thing I've read on Comment is Freed, on everything from the style of four administrations to our foreign policy challenges:
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Meme going around here that the Grok policy change (around only generating images when @ed by a paid user) was a “hallucination”. It wasn’t, it’s a real policy change; the misreporting is that this does NOT limit free users from generating images using other interfaces for Grok, such as its app.
January 10, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Meme going around here that the Grok policy change (around only generating images when @ed by a paid user) was a “hallucination”. It wasn’t, it’s a real policy change; the misreporting is that this does NOT limit free users from generating images using other interfaces for Grok, such as its app.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Following @jamesdaustin.bsky.social lead, here’s my starter pack of women journalists to follow. Apologies to any women I’ve inadvertently missed off. It’s not a slight. I’m just one woman, working in a specific area & region!
go.bsky.app/RaopwNN
go.bsky.app/RaopwNN
January 10, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Following @jamesdaustin.bsky.social lead, here’s my starter pack of women journalists to follow. Apologies to any women I’ve inadvertently missed off. It’s not a slight. I’m just one woman, working in a specific area & region!
go.bsky.app/RaopwNN
go.bsky.app/RaopwNN
Reposted by Sam Freedman
NEW: The Iranian regime has sustained its nationwide internet shutdown, likely to disrupt protest coordination and obscure the scale of its repression. Widespread protest activity has continued to take place across Iran amid the internet shutdown. 🧵(1/8)
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
January 10, 2026 at 3:35 AM
NEW: The Iranian regime has sustained its nationwide internet shutdown, likely to disrupt protest coordination and obscure the scale of its repression. Widespread protest activity has continued to take place across Iran amid the internet shutdown. 🧵(1/8)
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate01...
I wrote about this last month. Overshooting on reducing migration is going to be very costly.
samf.substack.com/p/the-oversh...
samf.substack.com/p/the-oversh...
January 10, 2026 at 7:56 AM
I wrote about this last month. Overshooting on reducing migration is going to be very costly.
samf.substack.com/p/the-oversh...
samf.substack.com/p/the-oversh...
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Watching JD Vance since he entered politics has really made me understand the kind of person that led Dante to write about someone so monstrously amoral and treacherous that his soul could fall straight to Hell while still walking around alive and well.
January 9, 2026 at 7:43 PM
Watching JD Vance since he entered politics has really made me understand the kind of person that led Dante to write about someone so monstrously amoral and treacherous that his soul could fall straight to Hell while still walking around alive and well.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Iran is facing the most serious and wide-ranging unrest in years. Over the past ten days, demonstrations have spread from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to cities and towns across all 31 provinces - and they continue to grow in scale and intensity 1/5
January 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Iran is facing the most serious and wide-ranging unrest in years. Over the past ten days, demonstrations have spread from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to cities and towns across all 31 provinces - and they continue to grow in scale and intensity 1/5
The radical right One Nation Party in Australia have seen another surge since Bondi. Now neck and neck with the centre-right liberals.
Had been one of the few countries where the right wasn't split.
Had been one of the few countries where the right wasn't split.
🚨 6 NEWS PROJECTION (based on latest DemosAU poll): One Nation wins at least 21 seats on the back of a record vote share, while Labor almost loses its majority
🟥 ALP: 29%
🟧 ONP: 23%
🟦 L/NP: 23%
🟩 GRN: 12%
⬛️ OTH: 13%
Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 52%
🟦 L/NP: 48%
ALPvONP estimate
🟥 ALP: 50%
🟧 ONP: 50%
🟥 ALP: 29%
🟧 ONP: 23%
🟦 L/NP: 23%
🟩 GRN: 12%
⬛️ OTH: 13%
Two-party-preferred
🟥 ALP: 52%
🟦 L/NP: 48%
ALPvONP estimate
🟥 ALP: 50%
🟧 ONP: 50%
January 9, 2026 at 3:02 PM
The radical right One Nation Party in Australia have seen another surge since Bondi. Now neck and neck with the centre-right liberals.
Had been one of the few countries where the right wasn't split.
Had been one of the few countries where the right wasn't split.
Interesting. NHS is getting a lot better at mitigating strike action.
There's now data out about the resident doctor strikes last month
So how disruptive did they end up being? And what can we say about how the NHS is responding to ongoing strikes?
Short 🧵👇
So how disruptive did they end up being? And what can we say about how the NHS is responding to ongoing strikes?
Short 🧵👇
January 9, 2026 at 2:15 PM
Interesting. NHS is getting a lot better at mitigating strike action.
I wish people like Luke would just admit he wants to pursue Reform adjacent policies rather than pretend it's political strategy.
Total and utter and unmitigated bollocks. Luke and his destructively factional, entirely deluded mates are steering Labour to electoral wipe out and the country towards the catastrophe of nationalist right-wing government. This is exactly like Brexit: a car crash happening in slow motion.
Only Reform voters can save Labour
By Luke Akehurst
By Luke Akehurst
January 9, 2026 at 2:06 PM
I wish people like Luke would just admit he wants to pursue Reform adjacent policies rather than pretend it's political strategy.
Yes, agree with this and something I'm going to look at more in coming weeks. If the only way to get things done is end run the system then you need to change the system....
This & the HdZ one last week v good as everyone says. but also v depressing? Both essentially say you must ignore the system to get stuff done in govt - bring it all into No10 (Bew), or don't bother working cross-govt (HdZ). That's probably right in the moment, but v bad for long run state capacity
New post out:
We have an interview with John Bew - one of the most influential people in British politics over the past decade + foreign policy adviser to four PMs.
(Free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
We have an interview with John Bew - one of the most influential people in British politics over the past decade + foreign policy adviser to four PMs.
(Free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
January 9, 2026 at 1:06 PM
Yes, agree with this and something I'm going to look at more in coming weeks. If the only way to get things done is end run the system then you need to change the system....
A quick look at Reform run councils should disabuse them of the notion they'll "get things done".
Interesting anon quotations from civil servants about prospect of a Reform govt via Emilio Casalicchio www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...
January 9, 2026 at 11:05 AM
A quick look at Reform run councils should disabuse them of the notion they'll "get things done".
Turns out that not having the use of one arm is really quite restricting. Would not recommend.
January 9, 2026 at 10:02 AM
Turns out that not having the use of one arm is really quite restricting. Would not recommend.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Nobody has been at the heart of British foreign policy like John Bew. A fascinating interview from @samfr.bsky.social, and I wish we saw more thoughtful, open discussions like this about how decisions get made inside the machine
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
Interview with John Bew - adviser to four Prime Ministers
On Whitehall, Ukraine, Trump and the global challenges facing Britain
samf.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 2:05 PM
Nobody has been at the heart of British foreign policy like John Bew. A fascinating interview from @samfr.bsky.social, and I wish we saw more thoughtful, open discussions like this about how decisions get made inside the machine
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Shale chiefs warn Trump that Venezuelan oil will hobble US drillers - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
They *really* didn't think this through
They *really* didn't think this through
Shale chiefs warn Trump that Venezuelan oil will hobble US drillers
President’s effort to drive down crude prices will hit sector struggling to sustain output growth
giftarticle.ft.com
January 9, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Shale chiefs warn Trump that Venezuelan oil will hobble US drillers - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
They *really* didn't think this through
They *really* didn't think this through
Greenland should do a deal but only if it involves the US agreeing to a vivid public humiliation of JD Vance. Bet Trump would be up for that.
January 8, 2026 at 8:57 PM
Greenland should do a deal but only if it involves the US agreeing to a vivid public humiliation of JD Vance. Bet Trump would be up for that.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Really fascinating read.
New post out:
We have an interview with John Bew - one of the most influential people in British politics over the past decade + foreign policy adviser to four PMs.
(Free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
We have an interview with John Bew - one of the most influential people in British politics over the past decade + foreign policy adviser to four PMs.
(Free to read)
samf.substack.com/p/interview-...
Interview with John Bew - adviser to four Prime Ministers
On Whitehall, Ukraine, Trump and the global challenges facing Britain
samf.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Really fascinating read.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
NEWS: Senate votes 52-47 to advance a measure restricting Trump's power to use military force in Venezuela.
A rare warning shot from Congress to Trump as he dials up foreign rhetoric.
Voting YES: Democrats + Rand Paul, Collins, Murkowski, Young, Hawley.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
A rare warning shot from Congress to Trump as he dials up foreign rhetoric.
Voting YES: Democrats + Rand Paul, Collins, Murkowski, Young, Hawley.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
Senate advances measure to restrict Trump's power to use military force in Venezuela
Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, who led the bipartisan resolution, said that Trump's actions in Venezuela are "clearly illegal" because he did not seek congressional approval.
www.nbcnews.com
January 8, 2026 at 4:44 PM
NEWS: Senate votes 52-47 to advance a measure restricting Trump's power to use military force in Venezuela.
A rare warning shot from Congress to Trump as he dials up foreign rhetoric.
Voting YES: Democrats + Rand Paul, Collins, Murkowski, Young, Hawley.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
A rare warning shot from Congress to Trump as he dials up foreign rhetoric.
Voting YES: Democrats + Rand Paul, Collins, Murkowski, Young, Hawley.
www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Just seen Grok putting the body of the victim of the ICE shooting in Minneapolis into a bikini. Digital corpse desecration now available to the public.
January 8, 2026 at 1:30 PM
Just seen Grok putting the body of the victim of the ICE shooting in Minneapolis into a bikini. Digital corpse desecration now available to the public.