Sam Freedman
@samfr.bsky.social
Writes the most popular UK Substack (samf.substack.com)
Author of Sunday Times bestselling book "Failed State". (An Economist and Financial Times Book of the Year for 2024). Working on book two.
Senior fellow: Institute for Government
Author of Sunday Times bestselling book "Failed State". (An Economist and Financial Times Book of the Year for 2024). Working on book two.
Senior fellow: Institute for Government
Pinned
What's the Greens' ceiling?
Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conservatives?
open.substack.com
New post just out:
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
Reposted by Sam Freedman
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
To Greenland and Back
Does NATO carry on as before?
samf.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 10:47 AM
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
Started watching Industry (a bit late I know) and I'm very impressed by how many different varieties of wanker the writers came up with.
January 22, 2026 at 8:31 PM
Started watching Industry (a bit late I know) and I'm very impressed by how many different varieties of wanker the writers came up with.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
“Hedging is starting to become the norm, even if the alternatives to working with the US are often unattractive.” The great @ldfreedman.bsky.social
Latest post tries to catch up with the back and forth on Greenland. I argue that rather this being a rupture (as Mark Carney suggested) the European response shows a transition to a rebalanced transatlantic relationship with diminished US power. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
To Greenland and Back
Does NATO carry on as before?
open.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 1:20 PM
“Hedging is starting to become the norm, even if the alternatives to working with the US are often unattractive.” The great @ldfreedman.bsky.social
Or, indeed, at all.
Vance on the economy:
"You don't turn the Titanic around overnight"
"You don't turn the Titanic around overnight"
January 22, 2026 at 5:59 PM
Or, indeed, at all.
Never made sense to do this as a PMB.
A neutral source close to the process in the Lords tells me that the assisted dying bill will run out of time before a vote. At the current rate of debate, that seems likely.
Supporters say the public deserve for the bill to go to a vote, opponents say tough luck, this is due process.
Supporters say the public deserve for the bill to go to a vote, opponents say tough luck, this is due process.
EXC - MPs and peers who backed the assisted dying bill now believe it is “near impossible” for it to pass the House of Lords in time because of procedural obstacles used by opponents.
“It is our system at its absolute most dysfunctional,” one MP said.
www.theguardian.com/society/2026...
“It is our system at its absolute most dysfunctional,” one MP said.
www.theguardian.com/society/2026...
January 22, 2026 at 5:40 PM
Never made sense to do this as a PMB.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
My Trade Secrets today. Mark Carney’s speech: nice truth bomb even if not totally original.
But the middle powers finding a new way to run the world requires a massive shift in political will which Carney’s Canada itself has had trouble making.
But the middle powers finding a new way to run the world requires a massive shift in political will which Carney’s Canada itself has had trouble making.
Carney’s new global order needs a huge shift in political will
[FREE TO READ] Middle-power diplomacy of the sort the Canadian PM calls for requires governments to throw off domestic constraints
as.ft.com
January 22, 2026 at 6:56 AM
My Trade Secrets today. Mark Carney’s speech: nice truth bomb even if not totally original.
But the middle powers finding a new way to run the world requires a massive shift in political will which Carney’s Canada itself has had trouble making.
But the middle powers finding a new way to run the world requires a massive shift in political will which Carney’s Canada itself has had trouble making.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
‘The fragmentation of British politics began in a single family’
Gem of an aside from @samfr.bsky.social in this piece on the Green Party
samf.substack.com/p/whats-the-...
Gem of an aside from @samfr.bsky.social in this piece on the Green Party
samf.substack.com/p/whats-the-...
January 22, 2026 at 2:06 PM
‘The fragmentation of British politics began in a single family’
Gem of an aside from @samfr.bsky.social in this piece on the Green Party
samf.substack.com/p/whats-the-...
Gem of an aside from @samfr.bsky.social in this piece on the Green Party
samf.substack.com/p/whats-the-...
Reposted by Sam Freedman
With the regrettable near-extinction of quality analysis in conventional media, @samfr.bsky.social's site is a very strong substitute. @ldfreedman.bsky.social's piece on Greenland crisis is far away best I have read.
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
To Greenland and Back
Does NATO carry on as before?
samf.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 1:50 PM
With the regrettable near-extinction of quality analysis in conventional media, @samfr.bsky.social's site is a very strong substitute. @ldfreedman.bsky.social's piece on Greenland crisis is far away best I have read.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
👇 My experience also. And not just a factional thing: as one Starmer critic on the NEC said ‘we really are broke, it really isn’t an unreasonable ask that we not have a GMCA byelection”. (paraphrasing)
Have asked a number of NEC members to tell me the chances Andy Burnham has of being selected to fight a by-election.
Every single one says zero.
Every single one says zero.
January 22, 2026 at 1:23 PM
👇 My experience also. And not just a factional thing: as one Starmer critic on the NEC said ‘we really are broke, it really isn’t an unreasonable ask that we not have a GMCA byelection”. (paraphrasing)
Reposted by Sam Freedman
The antidote to "nothing will ever be the same-ism" patiently explaining Trump in the wider framework of change but that NATO is worth saving.
Much needed.
Much needed.
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
To Greenland and Back
Does NATO carry on as before?
samf.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 10:54 AM
The antidote to "nothing will ever be the same-ism" patiently explaining Trump in the wider framework of change but that NATO is worth saving.
Much needed.
Much needed.
As I've said before this is the only seat I could see Burnham winning. Tory/Reform vote is less than half the 2024 Labour one.
And it's in an area where Burnham has high approval ratings. But NEC would have to let him stand.
And it's in an area where Burnham has high approval ratings. But NEC would have to let him stand.
🔺 BREAKING: Andrew Gwynne set to stand down as MP, clearing way for Andy Burnham
The MP for Gorton & Denton in the North West was sacked as health minister over a WhatsApp group called Trigger Me Timbers
The MP for Gorton & Denton in the North West was sacked as health minister over a WhatsApp group called Trigger Me Timbers
Andrew Gwynne set to stand down as MP, clearing way for Andy Burnham
Andrew Gwynne set to stand down as MP, clearing way for Andy Burnham
www.thetimes.com
January 22, 2026 at 11:18 AM
As I've said before this is the only seat I could see Burnham winning. Tory/Reform vote is less than half the 2024 Labour one.
And it's in an area where Burnham has high approval ratings. But NEC would have to let him stand.
And it's in an area where Burnham has high approval ratings. But NEC would have to let him stand.
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
To Greenland and Back
Does NATO carry on as before?
samf.substack.com
January 22, 2026 at 10:47 AM
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
"To Greenland and Back"
What do the last few days mean for NATO and the transatlantic alliance. Is this a permanent rupture or part of an ongoing transition?
How do world leaders find the right balance?
(£/free trial)
samf.substack.com/p/to-greenla...
There is such huge opportunity cost to each Trump tantrum. So many people with critical jobs have lost another week when they could have been doing something useful.
January 21, 2026 at 9:25 PM
There is such huge opportunity cost to each Trump tantrum. So many people with critical jobs have lost another week when they could have been doing something useful.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
January 21, 2026 at 1:58 PM
I'd really like to peer into the minds of people like Wiles and Bessant and see how they're justifying this to themselves.
January 21, 2026 at 3:04 PM
I'd really like to peer into the minds of people like Wiles and Bessant and see how they're justifying this to themselves.
It's Trump so you can never be sure but I think the tariff tantrum was because he was told he can't use force.
Why threaten tariffs in the summer if you're about to invade?
Why threaten tariffs in the summer if you're about to invade?
Attn news commentators: Trump saying he could use force to obtain Greenland but won’t is not Trump saying he won’t use force to obtain Greenland. It is Trump using force as a threat to obtain Greenland. That is why he mentions it.
January 21, 2026 at 2:28 PM
It's Trump so you can never be sure but I think the tariff tantrum was because he was told he can't use force.
Why threaten tariffs in the summer if you're about to invade?
Why threaten tariffs in the summer if you're about to invade?
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Trump says he could use "unstoppable force" in Greenland but won't do so. Big news of the speech is Trump ruling out military force, something he's refused to do for months.
Then meanders on to the subject of battleships, "100 times more powerful" that "gorgeous" WW2 ships.
Then meanders on to the subject of battleships, "100 times more powerful" that "gorgeous" WW2 ships.
January 21, 2026 at 2:14 PM
Trump says he could use "unstoppable force" in Greenland but won't do so. Big news of the speech is Trump ruling out military force, something he's refused to do for months.
Then meanders on to the subject of battleships, "100 times more powerful" that "gorgeous" WW2 ships.
Then meanders on to the subject of battleships, "100 times more powerful" that "gorgeous" WW2 ships.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
"Without us you'd all be speaking German", Donald Trump tells an audience in Davos, in Switzerland. Where the most common language is German.
January 21, 2026 at 2:05 PM
"Without us you'd all be speaking German", Donald Trump tells an audience in Davos, in Switzerland. Where the most common language is German.
January 21, 2026 at 1:58 PM
Son woke up ten mins before he needed to leave for school; came downstairs with 30 seconds left; ate three tablespoons of nutella straight out of the jar and walked out the door.
Teenagers are interesting creatures.
Teenagers are interesting creatures.
January 21, 2026 at 8:26 AM
Son woke up ten mins before he needed to leave for school; came downstairs with 30 seconds left; ate three tablespoons of nutella straight out of the jar and walked out the door.
Teenagers are interesting creatures.
Teenagers are interesting creatures.
Reposted by Sam Freedman
Fantastic piece - I hadn't realised that two of the disruptive forces in our party system literally start *in the same family*. What could be more British than that?
New post just out:
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
What's the Greens' ceiling?
Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conservatives?
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Fantastic piece - I hadn't realised that two of the disruptive forces in our party system literally start *in the same family*. What could be more British than that?
So far the "Board of Peace" is Trump, Orban, Lukaschenko and Netanyahu.
Which if you wrote in a satire would be considered too outlandish and sent back.
Which if you wrote in a satire would be considered too outlandish and sent back.
January 21, 2026 at 7:16 AM
So far the "Board of Peace" is Trump, Orban, Lukaschenko and Netanyahu.
Which if you wrote in a satire would be considered too outlandish and sent back.
Which if you wrote in a satire would be considered too outlandish and sent back.
Should things escalate further and today goes down in history as the end of American hegemony future UK historians may be surprised to find the papers focusing on the Beckhams falling out.
January 20, 2026 at 10:28 PM
Should things escalate further and today goes down in history as the end of American hegemony future UK historians may be surprised to find the papers focusing on the Beckhams falling out.
The logic of Carney's speech is some kind of alliance of democratic middle powers. Most of NATO plus Japan, S Korea, Australia, NZ etc...?
January 20, 2026 at 9:09 PM
The logic of Carney's speech is some kind of alliance of democratic middle powers. Most of NATO plus Japan, S Korea, Australia, NZ etc...?
Reposted by Sam Freedman
New post just out:
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
What's the Greens' ceiling?
Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conservatives?
open.substack.com
January 20, 2026 at 11:50 AM
New post just out:
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...
What's the Greens' Ceiling? Can they do to Labour what Reform has done to the Conseratives?
I look at a lot of data to assess whether the Greens can get into first place in the "left bloc" - and what's holding them back.
(£/free trial)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...