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Sam Freedman

@samfr.bsky.social

85K followers 850 following 9.9K posts

Writes the most popular UK politics Substack (samf.substack.com) Sunday Times bestselling book "Failed State" out now. (An Economist and Financial Times Book of the Year for 2024). Senior fellow: Institute for Government

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3d

New post just out:

"Staying alive vs taking control"

Labour's big choice at the budget is whether they just want to try and survive it or whether they're willing to take some bigger risks that would have future payoffs.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

Staying alive vs taking control

Labour's budget choices

open.substack.com

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Reposted by Sam Freedman

Iain Mansfield @igmansfield.bsky.social · 41m

"The West is not doing Ukraine a favour by helping it resist aggression; it is Ukraine doing the West a favour."

Fundamental point in @ldfreedman.bsky.social's latest. The true 'realist' position on Ukraine is that we should support Ukraine.

samf.substack.com/p/as-long-as...

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3h

You can see that a bit in Phillipson's interview today. Because she's got a bit of permission to freelance she makes an actual argument. Just not one that is the government's message.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3h

If I write about anti-semitisim in the UK and someone writes "what about Gaza" in response they're diminishing the concern about anti-semitisim and implying that Gaza is my responsibility because I'm Jewish.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 3h

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Whatever it takes" - what does it mean to guarantee Ukraine's security?

A great overview of where the war stands and the key question of Europe/US's support for the Ukrainians.

(Free to read)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/a...

‘As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine’s security?

This post was originally a lecture given in honour of Peter Hennessy at the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London.

open.substack.com

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 16h

Invading Norway because he didn't get the peace prize would be so on brand.

Kevin Rothrock @kevinrothrock.me · 16h

another day in very normal times

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Reposted by Sam Freedman

David_j_roth @davidjroth.bsky.social · 17h

The "somebody showed me a TikTok" era of American government is going pretty much exactly how you'd expect.

Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 18h

RFK Jr: "Somebody showed me a TikTok video of a pregnant woman at 8 months pregnant -- she's an associate professor at the Columbia Medical School -- and she is saying 'F Trump' and gobbling Tylenol with her baby in her placenta. The level of Trump Derangement Syndrome is now a pathology."

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Reposted by Sam Freedman

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 1d

Very informative & insightful account of how the ceasefire framework was agreed
samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

Will there finally be peace in Gaza?

One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

samf.substack.com

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

Yeah - it just looks all wrong.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

(They have *a lot* more people in their sample saying they won't vote than others, which boosts parties with more enthusiasm).

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

I am deeply sceptical of their methodology. But I also think they should rebrand as FuckAboutAndFindOutNow.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 23h

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 32% (-3)
LAB: 17% (-2)
CON: 17% (+3)
GRN: 15% (+4)
LDM: 12% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 8 Oct.
Changes w/ 1 Oct.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 22h

Snap

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

I'd be interested in why James thinks the stats are dodgy. I thought the trend was pretty clear.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

Yes for sure. But only if the Conservative Party doesn't just become a copy of Reform on immigration/rule of law issues. We badly need a centre-right party.

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

Would depend on the candidate. I'd vote for, say, Jesse Norman to keep out Reform but not Jenrick or Philp.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

With encouraging news on Gaza this morning read @ldfreedman.bsky.social's post on how this peace deal emerged and its prospects of success.

samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

Will there finally be peace in Gaza?

One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

samf.substack.com

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

Really enjoyed doing this - thanks for having me on.

Quiet Riot @quietriotpod.bsky.social · 1d

🆕 Anti-Woke Wake: It the Tory Party dead or just resting? ☠️

💥 Tory Conference debrief
💥 France latest political soap
💥 A deal on Gaza - but antisemitism on the rise

An amazing episode with special guest @samfr.bsky.social.

🍊 open.spotify.com/episode/5JQF...

🍏 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/q...

Anti-Woke Wake: Is the Tory Party dead or just resting?

Podcast Episode · Quiet Riot · 09/10/2025 · 1h 13m

podcasts.apple.com

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

A literal example of "don't threaten me with a good time".

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 1d

Where's the downside? www.theguardian.com/business/202...

However, critics are warning that the planned liberalisation of the alcohol licensing regime in England and Wales will erode local councils’ right to decide on opening hours, hand the drink industry unprecedented power and limit the ability of people affected by late night openings to object.

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Reposted by Sam Freedman

Arieh Kovler @ariehkovler.com · 1d

Multiple reports from Israeli, Arab and US sources that a ceasefire deal in Gaza could be imminent, with the hope that Phase 1 is signed today or tomorrow and hostage releases would begin almost immediately.

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Reposted by Sam Freedman

David Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 1d

This piece (£) by @samfr.bsky.social is excellent on the choices facing Reeves as the Budget approaches 🧵 open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

Staying alive vs taking control

Labour's budget choices

open.substack.com

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

It is a great idea and it's only a matter of time before I'm pitching girl twin's art at you.

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Reposted by Sam Freedman

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 2d

If you want to read an actually good piece about integration in the United Kingdom, try @samfr.bsky.social:

The Truth About Integration

I have been challenged by readers to write something less depressing about the state of the country.

samf.substack.com

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2d

Literally exactly the same arguments were made by people trying to stop Jews arriving 100 years ago.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2d

I wonder which broken culture Mosley and his band of thugs was from?

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2d

Oh and they're going to abolish stamp duty and business rates for high streets and triple stop and search....

I reckon we're well over £20 billion of committments here.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 2d

Good to see the Conservative Party committed to keeping the deficit down by *checks notes* spending £2 billion giving tax breaks for private education, creating a massive new deportation force and pledging to maintain pensioner benefits.

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