Lawrence Freedman
ldfreedman.bsky.social
Lawrence Freedman
@ldfreedman.bsky.social

Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine. Substack Comment is Freed https://samf.substack.com/

Sir Lawrence David Freedman, is a British academic, historian and author specialising in foreign policy, international relations and strategy. He has been described as the "dean of British strategic studies" and was a member of the Iraq Inquiry. He is an Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King's College London. .. more

Political science 82%
Sociology 6%

New post just out:

"MAGA Meltdown?"

With Trump's approval ratings collapsing the Republicans are starting to realise they're in serious trouble.

Here's why it's going to get worse for them.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...
MAGA Meltdown?
Why the Republicans are in serious trouble
open.substack.com
Hard to know what’s going on with respect to these discussions but the sentence that rings most true in this piece is “It’s embarrassing.” www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
U.S., Ukraine agree to change draft of peace plan that appeased Russia
Negotiators had been working off an early proposal that bipartisan lawmakers say would further destabilize global security and reward Russia after its 2022 invasion.
www.washingtonpost.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

On how Ukraine should respond to the US "peace plan" and looking at some new details that emerged over the last 24 hours.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/how-should...
How should Ukraine respond?
And more details on the "peace plan"
samf.substack.com

Reposted by Timothy Snyder

Another post on the new peace plan assessing how Ukraine should respond - don’t rush, don’t agree to a package and then wait for more Russians demands, keep up pressure, ask questions, cherry pick. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...?
How should Ukraine respond?
And more details on the "peace plan"
open.substack.com
X has changed their policy and now you can see where the accounts are based.

Here’s an “influencer from Texas”
Here is my read of the "peace plan" and how Kirill Dmitriev played the American media to force this thing into being -- with an incompetent White House scrambling to make it seem like this was somehow coordinated and well-planned. open.substack.com/pub/macspaun...
“He Must Have Got This From K.”
How a Russian operative used the American media to force a risible “peace deal” into existence
open.substack.com

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Interesting. ‘It is expected’ caught my eye as such an odd term to use

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Reposted by Thomas Wright

The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated
We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.
open.substack.com

Has no Putin stamp. I’m doing update

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

@ldfreedman.bsky.social demolishes the rumors of a peace plan.

This makes more sense than anything else I've seen on the plan.

Nonetheless, Witkoff's ignorance shines through. He probably got rolled again. 1/
Yet another peace plan?
What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal
open.substack.com

Here is another post from yesterday on the more serious matter of the battle for Pokrovsk and the question of whether Ukrainian forces should withdraw. samf.substack.com/p/retreat-de...
Retreat, Defeat and the Sunk Cost Fallacy
Ukraine’s choices on Pokrovsk
samf.substack.com

Far too much credibility is being given to the new ‘Trump peace plan’ that would be tantamount to Ukraine’s capitulation. Here I explain why this new plan is far less than it seems and is unlikely to lead to anything. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/y...?
Yet another peace plan?
What's going on with leaked proposals for a new US/Russia deal
open.substack.com

I’d be very surprised if this leads to anything at all. Latest effort by Witkoff to bounce administration to bounce Ukraine into a deal they won’t accept.
Seems to be what TASS is saying too...

As if the Kremlin has been taken by surprise by Witkoff's "deal."

Very odd. /1

Reposted by Lawrence Freedman

Seems to be what TASS is saying too...

As if the Kremlin has been taken by surprise by Witkoff's "deal."

Very odd. /1

Latest post returns to the battle for Pokrovsk and the pressure on Kyiv to order a withdrawal. I look at the factors influencing a decision, including the temptation to deny Putin a victory he has already claimed (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/r...?
Retreat, Defeat and the Sunk Cost Fallacy
Ukraine’s choices on Pokrovsk
open.substack.com