Lawrence Freedman
@ldfreedman.bsky.social
51K followers 110 following 470 posts
Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. Latest Book Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine. Substack Comment is Freed https://samf.substack.com/
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Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
mileendinstitute.bsky.social
Tonight, the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social will be hosting our next “Hennessy Lecture” when @ldfreedman.bsky.social will be discussing the UK’s commitment to Ukraine.

A handful of tickets are still available, particularly for @qmul.bsky.social staff and students, so do join us if you can!
ldfreedman.bsky.social
Will Reeves try to regain control of the nation’s finances in her next budget or just do enough to stay within her self-imposed rules. Sam looks at her options. Not for the faint-hearted. samf.substack.com/p/staying-al...
Staying alive vs taking control
Labour's budget choices
samf.substack.com
ldfreedman.bsky.social
Walked there so many times but never saw it like that!
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
samfr.bsky.social
New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Will there finally be peace in Gaza?"

A must read if you want to understand how we ended up with the proposed peace deal and what might happen next.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/will-there...
Will there finally be peace in Gaza?
One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.
samf.substack.com
ldfreedman.bsky.social
Latest post looks at the origins of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, why Israel’s failed strike against Hamas in Doha made the difference, how it is going and the problems ahead. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?
Will there finally be peace in Gaza?
One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.
open.substack.com
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
ldfreedman.bsky.social
Toward the end of our Yom Kippur service last night our Rabbi reported with gratitude a message of concern and support he had received from the Imam of the local mosque.
ldfreedman.bsky.social
For the record I haven’t been consulted on any of this. Note no mention as yet of insisting on high ethical standards and maintaining the integrity of the site. Just Haribo.
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
john-rendel.bsky.social
This is up there with the best of Sam’s blog.

Powerfully explanatory in terms of how Labour relates to white working class voters. And then, a practical guide on how to solve the apparent contradictions of the party, by focussing on areas of policy where non-zero sum gains can be made.
samfr.bsky.social
New post:

"Identity Crisis"

Labour keeps trying to appeal to a lost white working class vote + alienating middle-class grads / ethnic minority voters that are a much bigger part of their coalition.

Why? And how can they rebuild their coalition more effectively?

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...
Identity Crisis
How Labour can rebuild their voter coalition
open.substack.com
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
samfr.bsky.social
New post just out:

"The story behind the polls"

Today we have guest post from the brilliant @dylandifford.bsky.social breaking down which voters have moved where since the election and why.

With loads of new data analysis and lovely charts.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
The story behind the polls
Who's changed their mind since the 2024 election and why?
open.substack.com
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
iandunt.bsky.social
Looks like Putin's attempt to bully Moldova has failed. With 90% of votes counted, the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has a 20 point lead over the Russian-funded Patriotic Bloc open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...
Has Russia lost Moldova?
Why the bitterly contested election in a "faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing", matters a lot
open.substack.com
ldfreedman.bsky.social
It would have been there to dismiss it and by the final draft it had been omitted. So not a story.
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
samfr.bsky.social
Lots on the substack this week:

Me on the increasing plausibility of a total Tory collapse, how it would happen and what it would mean for the political landscape:

samf.substack.com/p/last-rites...
Last Rites
What happens if the Conservatives completely disintegrate?
samf.substack.com
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
ldfreedman.bsky.social
New post looks at what Russia is trying to achieve with its airspace provocations; the NATO and EU response; Trump’s apparent change of heart; and the latest ideas on helping Ukraine manage the financial burden of the war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...
Russian provocations
How should NATO and the EU react?
samf.substack.com
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
Reposted by Lawrence Freedman
mileendinstitute.bsky.social
“As Long As It Takes”: What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security?

We are thrilled to welcome Sir @ldfreedman.bsky.social to @qmul.bsky.social to deliver the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social’s fourth distinguished “Hennessy Lecture” on 8 October.

You can book your free ticket below!
ldfreedman.bsky.social
New post looks at what Russia is trying to achieve with its airspace provocations; the NATO and EU response; Trump’s apparent change of heart; and the latest ideas on helping Ukraine manage the financial burden of the war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...
Russian provocations
How should NATO and the EU react?
samf.substack.com
ldfreedman.bsky.social
Its possible that the Tories will completely collapse. What happens then? @samfr.bsky.social explores the implications for the other parties. Does Reform take them over? Should Lib Dems move more to centre right to occupy abandoned ground? (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/last-rites
Last Rites
What happens if the Conservatives completely disintegrate?
samf.substack.com