Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Pinned
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
· Nov 23
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire
Amazon.com: The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire (Audible Audio Edition): Mick Ryan, Grant Cartwright, Tantor Media: Books
www.amazon.com
The audiobook book for “The War for Ukraine” is now available. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy & #adaptation since Feb 2022. www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-...
In my recent conversation with @AaronBMacLean on the School of War podcast, we discussed the current state of the #Ukraine war, including Russian adaptation, war strategy and many other aspects of the conflict.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
Ep 249: Mick Ryan on the Ukrainian Way of War
Podcast Episode · School of War · 11/18/2025 · 50m
podcasts.apple.com
November 24, 2025 at 8:59 PM
In my recent conversation with @AaronBMacLean on the School of War podcast, we discussed the current state of the #Ukraine war, including Russian adaptation, war strategy and many other aspects of the conflict.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/s...
There is an entire convention just on treatment of PoWs (link below). Even the Nazis treat allied PoWs much better than Russia does now - although they treated Russian PoWs terribly.
www.ohchr.org/en/instrumen...
www.ohchr.org/en/instrumen...
Geneva Convention relative to the Treatment of Prisoners of War
Entry into force: 21 October 1950 Part I: GENERAL PROVISIONS Article 1 The High Contracting Parties undertake to respect and to ensure respect for the present Convention in all circumstances.
www.ohchr.org
November 24, 2025 at 8:57 PM
There is an entire convention just on treatment of PoWs (link below). Even the Nazis treat allied PoWs much better than Russia does now - although they treated Russian PoWs terribly.
www.ohchr.org/en/instrumen...
www.ohchr.org/en/instrumen...
Regardless of the outcomes of peace negotiations, Russian war criminals must face justice. This has not been ‘a few bad apples’; it has been a systemic approach to barbarity endorsed from the top. There can be no ‘get out of jail free’ card for them.
kyivindependent.com/russian-mili...
kyivindependent.com/russian-mili...
Russian military reportedly executes 5 Ukrainian POWs
Five Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) were executed by Russian soldiers, Ukrainian mapping and analytical organization DeepState reported on Nov. 22.
kyivindependent.com
November 23, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Regardless of the outcomes of peace negotiations, Russian war criminals must face justice. This has not been ‘a few bad apples’; it has been a systemic approach to barbarity endorsed from the top. There can be no ‘get out of jail free’ card for them.
kyivindependent.com/russian-mili...
kyivindependent.com/russian-mili...
I have just released my regular update on war and strategic competition. This week, it is focused on Trump & Putin's 28-point plan they wish to impose on #Ukraine, but also includes Pacific security and my regular Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-putin-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-putin-...
The Putin-Trump Pact is Afghanistan All Over Again, But With Much Worse Outcomes. The Big Five, 23 November edition
My regular update on war and strategic competition, with a focus on Trump and Putin's 28-point capitulation document imposed on Ukraine, as well as my regular Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com
November 23, 2025 at 4:46 AM
I have just released my regular update on war and strategic competition. This week, it is focused on Trump & Putin's 28-point plan they wish to impose on #Ukraine, but also includes Pacific security and my regular Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-putin-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-putin-...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
The “peace plan” for Ukraine is just a framework for Russia & the US to take assets away from Ukrainian recovery, and to ensure Russia evades accountability for war crimes
Europe can, and must, craft better with Ukraine
A point by point analysis of the shambles:
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
Europe can, and must, craft better with Ukraine
A point by point analysis of the shambles:
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
28 Points Later
A definitive guide to the Russian zombie diplomacy of Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine — aka what happens when you let the Russians eat your brains
www.greatpower.us
November 21, 2025 at 9:22 PM
The “peace plan” for Ukraine is just a framework for Russia & the US to take assets away from Ukrainian recovery, and to ensure Russia evades accountability for war crimes
Europe can, and must, craft better with Ukraine
A point by point analysis of the shambles:
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
Europe can, and must, craft better with Ukraine
A point by point analysis of the shambles:
www.greatpower.us/p/28-points-...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
⚡️ Update: Senior US official casts doubt on reported Ukraine peace proposal conditions.
A senior U.S. official told the Kyiv Independent that "you can't believe everything you read in the press," a comment that casts doubt on whether some of the conditions are actually in the U.S. peace proposal.
A senior U.S. official told the Kyiv Independent that "you can't believe everything you read in the press," a comment that casts doubt on whether some of the conditions are actually in the U.S. peace proposal.
New US peace plan pushes Ukraine toward capitulation — here's what we know so far
The United States is advancing a new peace proposal for ending Russia's war against Ukraine, a plan that Ukrainian officials say mirrors Moscow's maximalist demands and revives concessions the Kremlin...
kyivindependent.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:12 PM
⚡️ Update: Senior US official casts doubt on reported Ukraine peace proposal conditions.
A senior U.S. official told the Kyiv Independent that "you can't believe everything you read in the press," a comment that casts doubt on whether some of the conditions are actually in the U.S. peace proposal.
A senior U.S. official told the Kyiv Independent that "you can't believe everything you read in the press," a comment that casts doubt on whether some of the conditions are actually in the U.S. peace proposal.
I recently had the opportunity to discuss my latest #Ukraine trip with Seth Jones for his Last Line of Defense podcast. You can listen to our full conversation at the link.
www.csis.org/podcasts/las...
www.csis.org/podcasts/las...
Is Putin Winning the War or Just Buying Time? | The Last Line of Defense | CSIS Podcasts
Host Seth Jones talks with Mick Ryan, retired Australian Army Major General, about his recent visit to Ukraine's frontlines.
www.csis.org
November 20, 2025 at 4:59 AM
I recently had the opportunity to discuss my latest #Ukraine trip with Seth Jones for his Last Line of Defense podcast. You can listen to our full conversation at the link.
www.csis.org/podcasts/las...
www.csis.org/podcasts/las...
3/ On its current trajectory, Russia does not appear able to win this war. You can read the full article at this link:
mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-can...
mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-can...
Russia Cannot Win in Ukraine on its Current Trajectory: Assessing Russia’s 2025 War Effort
A comprehensive assessment of Russia's 2025 war against Ukraine, how it might measure its strategic success or failure, and what this means for the direction of the war in Ukraine.
mickryan.substack.com
November 19, 2025 at 6:04 AM
3/ On its current trajectory, Russia does not appear able to win this war. You can read the full article at this link:
mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-can...
mickryan.substack.com/p/russia-can...
2/ To explore the impact and results of Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025, I have undertaken a comprehensive assessment of Russia's 2025 war efforts, how it might measure its strategic success or failure, and what this means for the direction of the war in Ukraine.
November 19, 2025 at 6:04 AM
2/ To explore the impact and results of Russia's war against Ukraine in 2025, I have undertaken a comprehensive assessment of Russia's 2025 war efforts, how it might measure its strategic success or failure, and what this means for the direction of the war in Ukraine.
In 2025, Russia has continued its efforts to destroy #Ukraine. But despite its many advantages, Russia has failed to fully leverage them in its 2025 war efforts - including ground, air and information campaigns. 1/3
November 19, 2025 at 6:04 AM
In 2025, Russia has continued its efforts to destroy #Ukraine. But despite its many advantages, Russia has failed to fully leverage them in its 2025 war efforts - including ground, air and information campaigns. 1/3
Reposted by Mick Ryan
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
November 11, 2025 at 11:00 AM
According to regional budget data, Russia continues to recruit approximately 30,000 men per month. This may explain why Russia is willing to lose thousands of soldiers each month in its assault on Ukraine, essentially treating its soldiers as "living munitions."
I recently returned from another research visit to Ukraine, my second of 2025. I have now written a new white paper, published by the @csis.org, which provides 7 strategic insights based on knowledge gained on my recent visit & other research. www.csis.org/analysis/sev...
Seven Contemporary Insights on the State of the Ukraine War
As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, new insights reveal how drones, long-range strikes, and rapid tactical adaptation are reshaping the battlefield and what it means for the conflict’s next ...
www.csis.org
November 18, 2025 at 12:39 AM
I recently returned from another research visit to Ukraine, my second of 2025. I have now written a new white paper, published by the @csis.org, which provides 7 strategic insights based on knowledge gained on my recent visit & other research. www.csis.org/analysis/sev...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Japanese Forces Test Deployment of Hypersonic Missile System — USNI News
news.usni.org/2025/11/17/j...
news.usni.org/2025/11/17/j...
Japanese Forces Test Deployment of Hypersonic Missile System - USNI News
The Japan Self-Defense Force recently tested the deployment of a developing hypersonic missile system that is designed to defend Tokyo’s islands from foreign warships. The Acquisition, Technology and ...
news.usni.org
November 17, 2025 at 10:27 PM
Japanese Forces Test Deployment of Hypersonic Missile System — USNI News
news.usni.org/2025/11/17/j...
news.usni.org/2025/11/17/j...
The latest update on security and strategic competition in the western Pacific region from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social
NEW: The United States and PRC have maintained their trade truce and passed new measures to further reduce tensions. The CCP may conclude that economic pressure remains an effective coercive tool against the United States. (🧵1/4)
Read more: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
Read more: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwanU...
November 18, 2025 at 12:37 AM
The latest update on security and strategic competition in the western Pacific region from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social
My regular update on global conflict is now available. This week: Russia close to full envelopment of Pokrovsk, and China's plan for long-term confrontation, as well as my recommended war & natsec reads. You can read my full update at the following link: mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle...
The Battle of Pokrovsk, China's Plan for Long-Term Confrontation and China Cranky at Japan: The Big Five, 16 November edition
My regular update on global conflict. This week: Russia close to full envelopment of Pokrovsk, China's plan for long-term confrontation, as well as my recommended war and national security reads.
mickryan.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 6:38 AM
My regular update on global conflict is now available. This week: Russia close to full envelopment of Pokrovsk, and China's plan for long-term confrontation, as well as my recommended war & natsec reads. You can read my full update at the following link: mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle...
“To the historically oriented, the fight for the minds of decision-makers and noncombatants does not expand the battlespace, but it does expand or at least challenge long-held Western conceptions about war.” A superb review of cognitive warfare from Frank Hoffman
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
Assessing "Cognitive Warfare" | Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University
Explore the evolving concept of cognitive warfare, its impact on global security, and how China and Russia are reshaping the cognitive domain of conflict.
smallwarsjournal.com
November 14, 2025 at 10:20 PM
“To the historically oriented, the fight for the minds of decision-makers and noncombatants does not expand the battlespace, but it does expand or at least challenge long-held Western conceptions about war.” A superb review of cognitive warfare from Frank Hoffman
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
smallwarsjournal.com/2025/11/14/a...
“Russian gains in the eastern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — a section of the frontline that has been dynamic but chronically overlooked — have picked up speed.” Another good frontline report from @francisjfarrell
kyivindependent.com/analysis-wit...
kyivindependent.com/analysis-wit...
Analysis: With all eyes on Pokrovsk, Russia drives forward in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
While Ukraine, Russia, and the world have been watching the dramatic final act of the Battle of Pokrovsk unfold, Russian gains in the eastern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — a secti...
kyivindependent.com
November 14, 2025 at 9:23 AM
“Russian gains in the eastern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — a section of the frontline that has been dynamic but chronically overlooked — have picked up speed.” Another good frontline report from @francisjfarrell
kyivindependent.com/analysis-wit...
kyivindependent.com/analysis-wit...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, reportedly used in the overnight attack on Oryol, Russia.
November 13, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile, reportedly used in the overnight attack on Oryol, Russia.
My new report on how adaptation in the #Ukraine war has metastasised into a global Adaptation War has just been published by the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP). My report explores the dimensions of this new adaptation war, and how we might respond. www.scsp.ai/resource/ada...
Adaptation War - SCSP
This special report is how Ukraine and Russia have learned to learn on the battlefield…
www.scsp.ai
November 12, 2025 at 8:44 PM
My new report on how adaptation in the #Ukraine war has metastasised into a global Adaptation War has just been published by the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP). My report explores the dimensions of this new adaptation war, and how we might respond. www.scsp.ai/resource/ada...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
Ever since spring 2024, when Russian forces pushed beyond the city of Avdiivka and began gaining momentum in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s defense of the front line has depended on a delicate balance — a very thin line between states of control and chaos.
Analysis: With all eyes on Pokrovsk, Russia drives forward in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
While Ukraine, Russia, and the world have been watching the dramatic final act of the Battle of Pokrovsk unfold, Russian gains in the eastern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — a secti...
kyivindependent.com
November 12, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Ever since spring 2024, when Russian forces pushed beyond the city of Avdiivka and began gaining momentum in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine’s defense of the front line has depended on a delicate balance — a very thin line between states of control and chaos.
Today on #RemembranceDay, I am thinking about the amazing soldiers I had the privilege to serve with over 35 years in the Army. I am also thinking about the previous generations who served, suffered and sacrificed so much for our freedoms. Lest we forget.
November 11, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Today on #RemembranceDay, I am thinking about the amazing soldiers I had the privilege to serve with over 35 years in the Army. I am also thinking about the previous generations who served, suffered and sacrificed so much for our freedoms. Lest we forget.
“The Fourth Plenum of the Twentieth Central Committee marked more than a routine leadership meeting…The result is a model of strategic endurance—a self-contained system able to sustain rivalry with the United States.” jamestown.org/program/a-fi...
A Five-Year Plan for Managed Confrontation
Executive Summary: Economic planning for systemic rivalry: The Fourth Plenum ratified the culmination of a decade-long project to fuse national planning, security strategy, and technological control u...
jamestown.org
November 9, 2025 at 8:42 PM
“The Fourth Plenum of the Twentieth Central Committee marked more than a routine leadership meeting…The result is a model of strategic endurance—a self-contained system able to sustain rivalry with the United States.” jamestown.org/program/a-fi...
This is good news, and great U.S. -Australia collaboration.
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
Aussie research sees breakthrough as Raytheon, Northrop prepare to deliver first HACM
The US Air Force has picked Raytheon Missiles & Defense and Northrop Grumman to build the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM), developed alongside the Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research...
www.defenceconnect.com.au
November 9, 2025 at 8:33 PM
This is good news, and great U.S. -Australia collaboration.
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabi...
I think it is probably a bit of both. There have certainly been Russian incursions but like all such events, there are the inevitable 'copy cats' seeking either to gain attention or create additional chaos.
November 8, 2025 at 11:57 PM
I think it is probably a bit of both. There have certainly been Russian incursions but like all such events, there are the inevitable 'copy cats' seeking either to gain attention or create additional chaos.