Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Pinned
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
· Nov 23
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire
Amazon.com: The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire (Audible Audio Edition): Mick Ryan, Grant Cartwright, Tantor Media: Books
www.amazon.com
The audiobook book for “The War for Ukraine” is now available. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy & #adaptation since Feb 2022. www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-...
This says a lot about where the world is at present…
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
France delays G7 to avoid clash with White House cage fighting on Trump’s birthday
French President Emmanuel Macron’s office said the new schedule is “the result of our consultations with G7 partners.”
www.politico.eu
January 9, 2026 at 8:17 PM
This says a lot about where the world is at present…
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
A good update from @covertshores.bsky.social on the chronology of the war in the Black Sea.
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
Timeline of Ukraine Invasion: War In The Black Sea
Regularly UPDATED Reflecting on the Russo-Ukraine War, I am putting together a timeline of the most relevant events in the Black Sea. This should provide a useful overview…Read More >….
www.hisutton.com
January 9, 2026 at 8:13 PM
A good update from @covertshores.bsky.social on the chronology of the war in the Black Sea.
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
"The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader with challenges at home and abroad, and not one that is confident and anticipating victory. It is unlikely to be the last time he does so."
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
The Russian Oreshnik Strike on Lviv: A Sign of Putin’s Bigger Frustrations & Challenges in 2026
The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader and not one that is confident and anticipating victory.
mickryan.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:33 AM
"The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader with challenges at home and abroad, and not one that is confident and anticipating victory. It is unlikely to be the last time he does so."
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
Putin has a line to walk here. He wants to be seen as strong at home (noting he can manipulate the media to do that) while not upsetting his ‘relationship’ with Trump in the #Ukraine talks. It is a joy to see Putin’s true weakness laid bare here.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
Hopping Mad, Little Leverage – Russia is Irate at US Navy “Shadow” Tanker Seizures
The Kremlin has been close to zipped lips on American commandos taking over Russian commercial ships on the high seas. One pundit suggested Russia hit a NATO base with a missile.
www.kyivpost.com
January 8, 2026 at 9:24 PM
Putin has a line to walk here. He wants to be seen as strong at home (noting he can manipulate the media to do that) while not upsetting his ‘relationship’ with Trump in the #Ukraine talks. It is a joy to see Putin’s true weakness laid bare here.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
“Observers should nonetheless not assume that because the costs of a failed PRC military operation against Taiwan would be massive, they would be sufficient to deter Beijing. Deterrence rests on perceptions, rather than reality.”
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
If China Attacks Taiwan
www.gmfus.org
January 6, 2026 at 1:08 AM
“Observers should nonetheless not assume that because the costs of a failed PRC military operation against Taiwan would be massive, they would be sufficient to deter Beijing. Deterrence rests on perceptions, rather than reality.”
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
“Maybe we should show them Canberra…nah.”
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
The Happiness List - 2026 Australian Lamb ad
YouTube video by Australian Lamb
www.youtube.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:40 AM
“Maybe we should show them Canberra…nah.”
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
“Trump enjoyed his “Mission Accomplished” moment on Saturday. But if there is one thing we have learned over the past quarter-century, it is much easier to topple tyrants than to build stable and secure societies afterward.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Trump claims the U.S. will ‘run’ Venezuela. What’s the plan?
The raid to nab Maduro was brilliantly executed. The aftermath could get extremely messy.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 4, 2026 at 5:51 AM
“Trump enjoyed his “Mission Accomplished” moment on Saturday. But if there is one thing we have learned over the past quarter-century, it is much easier to topple tyrants than to build stable and secure societies afterward.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
“As a veteran of Iraq & Afghanistan, I have seen this slovenly strategic thinking about regime change and reconstruction before. It did not end well, and may result in a distracted America while China further builds its military, economic and diplomatic power.” www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Why the Venezuela raid matters to Australia
Australia can learn a lot from this incident, even if it did happen far from its shores.
www.lowyinstitute.org
January 4, 2026 at 2:53 AM
“As a veteran of Iraq & Afghanistan, I have seen this slovenly strategic thinking about regime change and reconstruction before. It did not end well, and may result in a distracted America while China further builds its military, economic and diplomatic power.” www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
“The principles of Trump’s foreign policy remain even harder to discern after the Venezuelan intervention than they did before it. But all actions have consequences—even arbitrary and inscrutable ones.”
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Making Sense of the Venezuela Attack
All actions have consequences—even arbitrary and inscrutable ones.
www.theatlantic.com
January 3, 2026 at 10:33 PM
“The principles of Trump’s foreign policy remain even harder to discern after the Venezuelan intervention than they did before it. But all actions have consequences—even arbitrary and inscrutable ones.”
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
On the situation in #Venezuela - lots of booms, lots of videos, not much verified info. Remember, in any military operation, first reports are always wrong. Will see in an hour or so where we are, and whether there are any statements/releases from the Pentagon (or anyone else).
January 3, 2026 at 6:52 AM
On the situation in #Venezuela - lots of booms, lots of videos, not much verified info. Remember, in any military operation, first reports are always wrong. Will see in an hour or so where we are, and whether there are any statements/releases from the Pentagon (or anyone else).
“Cognitive Warfare seeks to exploit facets of cognition to disrupt, undermine, influence, or modify human decision-making by altering human behaviour and cognition through any means & technological advances”. A Cognitive Warfare report from NATO’s chief scientist. www.sto.nato.int/wp-content/u...
January 2, 2026 at 8:37 PM
“Cognitive Warfare seeks to exploit facets of cognition to disrupt, undermine, influence, or modify human decision-making by altering human behaviour and cognition through any means & technological advances”. A Cognitive Warfare report from NATO’s chief scientist. www.sto.nato.int/wp-content/u...
Zelenskyy shakes up Ukraine’s national security leadership. Military Intelligence Head Budanov to be new presidential chief of staff. Mykhailo Fedorov, deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister, to be new defence minister.
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
Zelensky picks Military Intelligence Head Budanov as his new chief of staff
President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Kyrylo Budanov, the military intelligence chief, to take charge of the President's Office on Jan. 2.
"Now, Ukraine needs more focus on security issues, the ...
kyivindependent.com
January 2, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Zelenskyy shakes up Ukraine’s national security leadership. Military Intelligence Head Budanov to be new presidential chief of staff. Mykhailo Fedorov, deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister, to be new defence minister.
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
U.S. Finds Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin in Drone Strike ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
Exclusive | U.S. Finds Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin in Drone Strike
Disclosure of the findings comes as Trump appeared to play down the Russian claim of an attempted attack.
www.wsj.com
January 1, 2026 at 8:20 AM
U.S. Finds Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin in Drone Strike ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
“The collective west, including our Asian and Pacific democratic allies, has failed to imagine a free world that includes and encourages more nations.” Another fabulous article from @mollymckew.bsky.social
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
2025, the atomization of reality, and the failure of imagination… (part 1)
The free world is thinking small. Our adversaries are not.
www.greatpower.us
January 1, 2026 at 6:23 AM
“The collective west, including our Asian and Pacific democratic allies, has failed to imagine a free world that includes and encourages more nations.” Another fabulous article from @mollymckew.bsky.social
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. Read my assessment of the exercise here. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...
Justice Mission 2025 is a Golden Opportunity to Learn about PLA Joint Planning and Capabilities
A special assessment of China's Exercise Justice Mission 2025, what China designed it to achieve, and how we can learn from it.
mickryan.substack.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:20 AM
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. Read my assessment of the exercise here. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...
“The headline Trump shared said it plainly: “Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows Russia is the one standing in the way of peace.” I would not be holding my breath for more action. This is just part of the merry-go-round.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239
Trump Signals Russia Blocking Path to Peace as US Intel Rejects Putin’s Claim, Voters Grow Skeptical
The US president shares editorial blaming Putin for stalled talks, intelligence dismisses Kremlin claims, and the public questions whether peace is near.
www.kyivpost.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:18 AM
“The headline Trump shared said it plainly: “Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows Russia is the one standing in the way of peace.” I would not be holding my breath for more action. This is just part of the merry-go-round.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. I have just published an assessment of the exercise. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...
Justice Mission 2025 is a Golden Opportunity to Learn about PLA Joint Planning and Capabilities
A special assessment of China's Exercise Justice Mission 2025, what China designed it to achieve, and how we can learn from it.
mickryan.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 7:14 AM
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. I have just published an assessment of the exercise. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...
“Don’t mistake progress in stopping a U.S. sellout of Ukraine with progress in ending the war. The conflict will end only when Putin is convinced that he can’t achieve his military objectives. Until that point…peace negotiations aren’t going anywhere.” wapo.st/4aw8ppT @maxboot.bsky.social
Opinion | Putin was the missing man at Mar-a-Lago
Ukraine peace won’t come until the Russian dictator realizes he can’t win militarily.
wapo.st
December 30, 2025 at 11:04 AM
“Don’t mistake progress in stopping a U.S. sellout of Ukraine with progress in ending the war. The conflict will end only when Putin is convinced that he can’t achieve his military objectives. Until that point…peace negotiations aren’t going anywhere.” wapo.st/4aw8ppT @maxboot.bsky.social
According the Trump, "we made a lot of progress on ending that war." My quick assessment of the just completed Mar-a-Lago summit between President's Zelenskyy and Trump. I also examine Putin’s strategic calculus in the wake of the latest peace summit.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-mar-a-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-mar-a-...
The Mar-A-Lago Summit: Quick Assessment
According the Trump, "we made a lot of progress on ending that war." But war is a complex human endeavour which generally resists quick, simple solutions. We need to keep expectations realistic.
mickryan.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 11:58 PM
According the Trump, "we made a lot of progress on ending that war." My quick assessment of the just completed Mar-a-Lago summit between President's Zelenskyy and Trump. I also examine Putin’s strategic calculus in the wake of the latest peace summit.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-mar-a-...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-mar-a-...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
⚡️Update: Zelensky, Trump conclude meeting in Florida aimed at discussing an end to Russia's war.
"They're going to be helping. Russia is going to be helping," U.S. President Donald Trump said when asked if Moscow would have any responsibility for Ukraine's reconstruction.
"They're going to be helping. Russia is going to be helping," U.S. President Donald Trump said when asked if Moscow would have any responsibility for Ukraine's reconstruction.
Zelensky, Trump conclude meeting in Florida aimed at discussing an end to Russia's war (LIVE)
A source close to the Ukrainian delegation told the Kyiv Independent that they don't know how the meeting will unfold and are ready for "all scenarios."
kyivindependent.com
December 28, 2025 at 11:19 PM
⚡️Update: Zelensky, Trump conclude meeting in Florida aimed at discussing an end to Russia's war.
"They're going to be helping. Russia is going to be helping," U.S. President Donald Trump said when asked if Moscow would have any responsibility for Ukraine's reconstruction.
"They're going to be helping. Russia is going to be helping," U.S. President Donald Trump said when asked if Moscow would have any responsibility for Ukraine's reconstruction.
15/ In the meantime, the brutal ground combat between Ukraine and Russia, and the nightly long-range drone and missile strikes will continue. End.
December 28, 2025 at 10:56 PM
15/ In the meantime, the brutal ground combat between Ukraine and Russia, and the nightly long-range drone and missile strikes will continue. End.
14/ There remains a long way ahead in the peace negotiations. After that will come the production of the very difficult implementing details and then the actual execution of withdrawals. The potential for flare ups in fighting in this phase will be very real. But we are some way from this.
December 28, 2025 at 10:56 PM
14/ There remains a long way ahead in the peace negotiations. After that will come the production of the very difficult implementing details and then the actual execution of withdrawals. The potential for flare ups in fighting in this phase will be very real. But we are some way from this.
13/ To this, Zelenskyy simply replied, “you are welcome.” A Trump visit to Ukraine would be good for him to see the situation with his own eyes.
December 28, 2025 at 10:56 PM
13/ To this, Zelenskyy simply replied, “you are welcome.” A Trump visit to Ukraine would be good for him to see the situation with his own eyes.
12/ Trump has “offered to go and speak to their parliament”. This is an extraordinary offer, which the U.S. Secret Service are probably already having heart palpitations over. But the offer is now on the table.
December 28, 2025 at 10:56 PM
12/ Trump has “offered to go and speak to their parliament”. This is an extraordinary offer, which the U.S. Secret Service are probably already having heart palpitations over. But the offer is now on the table.
11/ A working group for future negotiations is going to be formed. As Trump noted in the press conference, the U.S. team will include Cain, Rubio, Witkoff, Kushner, Hegseth. Trump also noted that “the working group will be working with Russia.”
December 28, 2025 at 10:56 PM
11/ A working group for future negotiations is going to be formed. As Trump noted in the press conference, the U.S. team will include Cain, Rubio, Witkoff, Kushner, Hegseth. Trump also noted that “the working group will be working with Russia.”