Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
Pinned
Mick Ryan
@warinthefuture.bsky.social
· Nov 23
The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire
Amazon.com: The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire (Audible Audio Edition): Mick Ryan, Grant Cartwright, Tantor Media: Books
www.amazon.com
The audiobook book for “The War for Ukraine” is now available. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy & #adaptation since Feb 2022. www.amazon.com/War-Ukraine-...
"Would this be a simple operation to intimidate the locals? Or would we have to fight – to fight the soldiers of a nation I had served with on operations, trained with at school, & are our allies?" A fiction story of a U.S. military operation in #Greenland. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-greenl...
The Greenland Expedition
A fictional account of an American military expedition to Greenland. I hope this situation will be resolved short of military operations. But to prevent the worst, we need to imagine it.
mickryan.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 9:43 PM
"Would this be a simple operation to intimidate the locals? Or would we have to fight – to fight the soldiers of a nation I had served with on operations, trained with at school, & are our allies?" A fiction story of a U.S. military operation in #Greenland. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-greenl...
Respect for the Heroes of Ukraine.
At the cemetery historically known as the Field of Mars, a sea of flags snap and ripple in the wind, and names appear faster than the city can make space for them.
The Ukrainian war cemetery that can't stop growing
At the cemetery historically known as the Field of Mars, a sea of flags snap and ripple in the wind, and names appear faster than the city can make space for them.
Photographer Anastasiia Smolienko, ...
kyivindependent.com
January 15, 2026 at 9:42 PM
Respect for the Heroes of Ukraine.
"Would this be a simple operation to intimidate the locals? Or would we have to fight the soldiers of a nation I had served with on combat operations, trained with at school, and who are our allies?" A fictional story of a U.S. military #Greenland expedition. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-greenl...
The Greenland Expedition
A fictional account of an American military expedition to Greenland. I hope this situation will be resolved short of military operations. But to prevent the worst, we need to imagine it.
mickryan.substack.com
January 14, 2026 at 6:11 AM
"Would this be a simple operation to intimidate the locals? Or would we have to fight the soldiers of a nation I had served with on combat operations, trained with at school, and who are our allies?" A fictional story of a U.S. military #Greenland expedition. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-greenl...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
NEW: Russian strikes caused significantly more civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2025 compared to previous years.🧵(1/7)
Full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011326
Full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011326
January 14, 2026 at 4:17 AM
NEW: Russian strikes caused significantly more civilian casualties in Ukraine in 2025 compared to previous years.🧵(1/7)
Full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011326
Full update: isw.pub/UkrWar011326
“Against the background of the distractions created by the Trump administration, it is easy for some to forget that 100s of thousands of troops man the frontline in Ukraine, defending their homeland and Europe from the new age barbarian monster from Moscow.” mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory: The Big Five 11 January 2026.
My first 2026 update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela & my Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com
January 13, 2026 at 9:26 PM
“Against the background of the distractions created by the Trump administration, it is easy for some to forget that 100s of thousands of troops man the frontline in Ukraine, defending their homeland and Europe from the new age barbarian monster from Moscow.” mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
🇩🇪🇬🇱 Germany and NATO are preparing comprehensive defense of Greenland and the Arctic, - Pistorius
Germany announced its participation in strengthening the security of Greenland and Arctic within framework of NATO, emphasizing that the region requires comprehensive defense and attention from allies.
Germany announced its participation in strengthening the security of Greenland and Arctic within framework of NATO, emphasizing that the region requires comprehensive defense and attention from allies.
January 13, 2026 at 6:53 PM
🇩🇪🇬🇱 Germany and NATO are preparing comprehensive defense of Greenland and the Arctic, - Pistorius
Germany announced its participation in strengthening the security of Greenland and Arctic within framework of NATO, emphasizing that the region requires comprehensive defense and attention from allies.
Germany announced its participation in strengthening the security of Greenland and Arctic within framework of NATO, emphasizing that the region requires comprehensive defense and attention from allies.
Reposted by Mick Ryan
In recent weeks, President Volodymyr Zelensky began actively promoting the idea of holding a referendum and potentially presidential elections immediately after a ceasefire is reached.
However, there are many obstacles to holding an election and a referendum before the war’s official end.
However, there are many obstacles to holding an election and a referendum before the war’s official end.
Ukraine says it's preparing for elections, referendum. Is it realistic?
In recent weeks, President Volodymyr Zelensky began actively promoting the idea of holding a referendum and potentially presidential elections immediately after a ceasefire is reached.
The goal of th...
kyivindependent.com
January 13, 2026 at 9:13 PM
In recent weeks, President Volodymyr Zelensky began actively promoting the idea of holding a referendum and potentially presidential elections immediately after a ceasefire is reached.
However, there are many obstacles to holding an election and a referendum before the war’s official end.
However, there are many obstacles to holding an election and a referendum before the war’s official end.
The past week has seen surge in strategically important events. In this week’s update: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela & my Big Five recommended reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory: The Big Five 11 January 2026.
My first 2026 update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela & my Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 6:53 AM
The past week has seen surge in strategically important events. In this week’s update: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela & my Big Five recommended reads. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
"The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory." My regular update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, ground war in #Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela & more.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory: The Big Five 11 January 2026.
My first 2026 update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela & my Big Five recommended reads.
mickryan.substack.com
January 11, 2026 at 1:07 AM
"The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory." My regular update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, ground war in #Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela & more.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-oreshn...
This says a lot about where the world is at present…
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
France delays G7 to avoid clash with White House cage fighting on Trump’s birthday
French President Emmanuel Macron’s office said the new schedule is “the result of our consultations with G7 partners.”
www.politico.eu
January 9, 2026 at 8:17 PM
This says a lot about where the world is at present…
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
A good update from @covertshores.bsky.social on the chronology of the war in the Black Sea.
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
Timeline of Ukraine Invasion: War In The Black Sea
Regularly UPDATED Reflecting on the Russo-Ukraine War, I am putting together a timeline of the most relevant events in the Black Sea. This should provide a useful overview…Read More >….
www.hisutton.com
January 9, 2026 at 8:13 PM
A good update from @covertshores.bsky.social on the chronology of the war in the Black Sea.
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
www.hisutton.com/Timeline-202...
"The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader with challenges at home and abroad, and not one that is confident and anticipating victory. It is unlikely to be the last time he does so."
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
The Russian Oreshnik Strike on Lviv: A Sign of Putin’s Bigger Frustrations & Challenges in 2026
The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader and not one that is confident and anticipating victory.
mickryan.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:33 AM
"The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader with challenges at home and abroad, and not one that is confident and anticipating victory. It is unlikely to be the last time he does so."
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russia...
Putin has a line to walk here. He wants to be seen as strong at home (noting he can manipulate the media to do that) while not upsetting his ‘relationship’ with Trump in the #Ukraine talks. It is a joy to see Putin’s true weakness laid bare here.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
Hopping Mad, Little Leverage – Russia is Irate at US Navy “Shadow” Tanker Seizures
The Kremlin has been close to zipped lips on American commandos taking over Russian commercial ships on the high seas. One pundit suggested Russia hit a NATO base with a missile.
www.kyivpost.com
January 8, 2026 at 9:24 PM
Putin has a line to walk here. He wants to be seen as strong at home (noting he can manipulate the media to do that) while not upsetting his ‘relationship’ with Trump in the #Ukraine talks. It is a joy to see Putin’s true weakness laid bare here.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
www.kyivpost.com/post/67690
“Observers should nonetheless not assume that because the costs of a failed PRC military operation against Taiwan would be massive, they would be sufficient to deter Beijing. Deterrence rests on perceptions, rather than reality.”
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
If China Attacks Taiwan
www.gmfus.org
January 6, 2026 at 1:08 AM
“Observers should nonetheless not assume that because the costs of a failed PRC military operation against Taiwan would be massive, they would be sufficient to deter Beijing. Deterrence rests on perceptions, rather than reality.”
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
www.gmfus.org/news/if-chin...
“Maybe we should show them Canberra…nah.”
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
The Happiness List - 2026 Australian Lamb ad
YouTube video by Australian Lamb
www.youtube.com
January 5, 2026 at 6:40 AM
“Maybe we should show them Canberra…nah.”
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
This year’s annual Aussie lamb ad is out. 🇦🇺
www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
“Trump enjoyed his “Mission Accomplished” moment on Saturday. But if there is one thing we have learned over the past quarter-century, it is much easier to topple tyrants than to build stable and secure societies afterward.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Trump claims the U.S. will ‘run’ Venezuela. What’s the plan?
The raid to nab Maduro was brilliantly executed. The aftermath could get extremely messy.
www.washingtonpost.com
January 4, 2026 at 5:51 AM
“Trump enjoyed his “Mission Accomplished” moment on Saturday. But if there is one thing we have learned over the past quarter-century, it is much easier to topple tyrants than to build stable and secure societies afterward.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
“As a veteran of Iraq & Afghanistan, I have seen this slovenly strategic thinking about regime change and reconstruction before. It did not end well, and may result in a distracted America while China further builds its military, economic and diplomatic power.” www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
Why the Venezuela raid matters to Australia
Australia can learn a lot from this incident, even if it did happen far from its shores.
www.lowyinstitute.org
January 4, 2026 at 2:53 AM
“As a veteran of Iraq & Afghanistan, I have seen this slovenly strategic thinking about regime change and reconstruction before. It did not end well, and may result in a distracted America while China further builds its military, economic and diplomatic power.” www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...
“The principles of Trump’s foreign policy remain even harder to discern after the Venezuelan intervention than they did before it. But all actions have consequences—even arbitrary and inscrutable ones.”
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Making Sense of the Venezuela Attack
All actions have consequences—even arbitrary and inscrutable ones.
www.theatlantic.com
January 3, 2026 at 10:33 PM
“The principles of Trump’s foreign policy remain even harder to discern after the Venezuelan intervention than they did before it. But all actions have consequences—even arbitrary and inscrutable ones.”
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
On the situation in #Venezuela - lots of booms, lots of videos, not much verified info. Remember, in any military operation, first reports are always wrong. Will see in an hour or so where we are, and whether there are any statements/releases from the Pentagon (or anyone else).
January 3, 2026 at 6:52 AM
On the situation in #Venezuela - lots of booms, lots of videos, not much verified info. Remember, in any military operation, first reports are always wrong. Will see in an hour or so where we are, and whether there are any statements/releases from the Pentagon (or anyone else).
“Cognitive Warfare seeks to exploit facets of cognition to disrupt, undermine, influence, or modify human decision-making by altering human behaviour and cognition through any means & technological advances”. A Cognitive Warfare report from NATO’s chief scientist. www.sto.nato.int/wp-content/u...
January 2, 2026 at 8:37 PM
“Cognitive Warfare seeks to exploit facets of cognition to disrupt, undermine, influence, or modify human decision-making by altering human behaviour and cognition through any means & technological advances”. A Cognitive Warfare report from NATO’s chief scientist. www.sto.nato.int/wp-content/u...
Zelenskyy shakes up Ukraine’s national security leadership. Military Intelligence Head Budanov to be new presidential chief of staff. Mykhailo Fedorov, deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister, to be new defence minister.
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
Zelensky picks Military Intelligence Head Budanov as his new chief of staff
President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed Kyrylo Budanov, the military intelligence chief, to take charge of the President's Office on Jan. 2.
"Now, Ukraine needs more focus on security issues, the ...
kyivindependent.com
January 2, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Zelenskyy shakes up Ukraine’s national security leadership. Military Intelligence Head Budanov to be new presidential chief of staff. Mykhailo Fedorov, deputy prime minister and digital transformation minister, to be new defence minister.
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
Reposted by Mick Ryan
U.S. Finds Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin in Drone Strike ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
Exclusive | U.S. Finds Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin in Drone Strike
Disclosure of the findings comes as Trump appeared to play down the Russian claim of an attempted attack.
www.wsj.com
January 1, 2026 at 8:20 AM
U.S. Finds Ukraine Didn’t Target Putin in Drone Strike ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
Falling for Russian propaganda demands a spectacular degree of stupidity.
"Putin is a coloniser in the real world and in the minds of people. He has successfully and thoroughly colonised Trump’s mind." @warinthefuture.bsky.social
“The collective west, including our Asian and Pacific democratic allies, has failed to imagine a free world that includes and encourages more nations.” Another fabulous article from @mollymckew.bsky.social
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
2025, the atomization of reality, and the failure of imagination… (part 1)
The free world is thinking small. Our adversaries are not.
www.greatpower.us
January 1, 2026 at 6:23 AM
“The collective west, including our Asian and Pacific democratic allies, has failed to imagine a free world that includes and encourages more nations.” Another fabulous article from @mollymckew.bsky.social
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
www.greatpower.us/p/2025-the-a...
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. Read my assessment of the exercise here. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...
Justice Mission 2025 is a Golden Opportunity to Learn about PLA Joint Planning and Capabilities
A special assessment of China's Exercise Justice Mission 2025, what China designed it to achieve, and how we can learn from it.
mickryan.substack.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:20 AM
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. Read my assessment of the exercise here. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...
“The headline Trump shared said it plainly: “Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows Russia is the one standing in the way of peace.” I would not be holding my breath for more action. This is just part of the merry-go-round.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239
Trump Signals Russia Blocking Path to Peace as US Intel Rejects Putin’s Claim, Voters Grow Skeptical
The US president shares editorial blaming Putin for stalled talks, intelligence dismisses Kremlin claims, and the public questions whether peace is near.
www.kyivpost.com
January 1, 2026 at 4:18 AM
“The headline Trump shared said it plainly: “Putin ‘attack’ bluster shows Russia is the one standing in the way of peace.” I would not be holding my breath for more action. This is just part of the merry-go-round.
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239
www.kyivpost.com/post/67239