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‘As Long as it Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine’s security?

This post was originally a lecture given in honour of Peter Hennessy at the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London. This edited version is reproduced with their permission.

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 2d

This is my explainer from last weekend on the origins of the Trump peace plan for Gaza. It explains how it got as far as it did and the challenges to come. (£/free trial), samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

Staying alive vs taking control

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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 2d

Standing room only for @ldfreedman.bsky.social's superb "Hennessy Lecture" at the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social this evening, on "As long as it takes: What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security?"

Really good questions from the audience, too. Thanks to everyone who came.

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 3d

Petit bourgeois

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 4d

Will Reeves try to regain control of the nation’s finances in her next budget or just do enough to stay within her self-imposed rules. Sam looks at her options. Not for the faint-hearted. samf.substack.com/p/staying-al...

Labour's budget choices

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 4d

Walked there so many times but never saw it like that!

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John Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 5d

All you need to know about the Gaza peace plan, by @ldfreedman.bsky.social samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 6d

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Will there finally be peace in Gaza?"

A must read if you want to understand how we ended up with the proposed peace deal and what might happen next.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/will-there...

One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 6d

Latest post looks at the origins of Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, why Israel’s failed strike against Hamas in Doha made the difference, how it is going and the problems ahead. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...?

One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East.

My son recently found a swastika drawn on the pavement at...

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Substack

Will there finally be peace in Gaza?

One never goes too far wrong by being pessimistic about events in the Middle East. Even when the stars seem aligned and peace is at hand something happens to shatter any residual optimism. There seem to be too many unwilling to abandon their absolutist objectives and habits of violence for common sense to last for long.

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Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Steve Peers, Leigh Sparks , and 1 more Lawrence Freedman, Steve Peers, Leigh Sparks, Jonathan Hopkin

Gabriel Milland @gabrielmilland.bsky.social · 6d

Bravo.

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 7d

Toward the end of our Yom Kippur service last night our Rabbi reported with gratitude a message of concern and support he had received from the Imam of the local mosque.

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 7d

More Succession.

Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 7d

For the record I haven’t been consulted on any of this. Note no mention as yet of insisting on high ethical standards and maintaining the integrity of the site. Just Haribo.

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Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Lawrence Freedman, Margot C. Finn , and 1 more Jonathan Portes, Lawrence Freedman, Margot C. Finn, James Connelly

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 8d

I wrote a short piece for the Observer on the attacks in Manchester.

observer.co.uk/news/opinion...

The Manchester attack didn't come as a shock. The only surprise is it hasn’t happened sooner

observer.co.uk

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 9d

Tempting.

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Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers , and 5 more Lawrence Freedman, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers, Jonathan Hopkin, Tom Griffin, Christina Pagel, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Maria Sobolewska

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 9d

New post:

"Identity Crisis"

Labour keeps trying to appeal to a lost white working class vote + alienating middle-class grads / ethnic minority voters that are a much bigger part of their coalition.

Why? And how can they rebuild their coalition more effectively?

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/i...

Identity Crisis

How Labour can rebuild their voter coalition

Hegseth’s Unusual, Partisan, and Dangerous Convening of Military Leaders

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Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Kori Schake

Lawfare @lawfaremedia.org · 9d

@kschake.bsky.social reflects on yesterday's address by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Trump at a gathering of the country's top military officials. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/hegs...

If the defense secretary’s event allayed concerns of DEI in the military for some, it aggravated concerns of a politicized military for all.

www.lawfaremedia.org

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Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers , and 1 more Lawrence Freedman, Ben H. Ansell, Steve Peers, Tim Bale

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 11d

New post just out:

"The story behind the polls"

Today we have guest post from the brilliant @dylandifford.bsky.social breaking down which voters have moved where since the election and why.

With loads of new data analysis and lovely charts.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...

The story behind the polls

Who's changed their mind since the 2024 election and why?

The Most Bizarre Test of U.S. National Security Is Happening This Week

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Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, David J. Galbreath

Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 12d

I wrote about the weird all generals meeting, why it seems super-dumb, and why it’s causing me to recall the dumbest movie plots ever. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-most-b...

Or, how the Trump administration does not understand centralized vulnerability.

danieldrezner.substack.com

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Reposted by Lawrence Freedman, Andrew Scott, James Harrison

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 12d

Looks like Putin's attempt to bully Moldova has failed. With 90% of votes counted, the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) has a 20 point lead over the Russian-funded Patriotic Bloc open.substack.com/pub/arthursn...

Has Russia lost Moldova?

Why the bitterly contested election in a "faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing", matters a lot

What happens if the Conservatives completely disintegrate?

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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 12d

It would have been there to dismiss it and by the final draft it had been omitted. So not a story.

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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 13d

Lots on the substack this week:

Me on the increasing plausibility of a total Tory collapse, how it would happen and what it would mean for the political landscape:

samf.substack.com/p/last-rites...

Last Rites