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Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 970 following 2.7K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 17d

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 18d

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1h

Though I think it is fair to argue that Macrons greatest weakness in European affairs has been his inability to form a strong, lasting coalition of countries as much as he failed to form a stable, lasting coalition of forces in France.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3h

Branding age verification and ID cards as 'dystopian' while relocating to and writing from a country that ranks in global bottom third on Internet Freedom, let alone overall human rights, is next level self dillusion.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Ben Stanley @benstanley.eu · 3h

Truly we live in the most Trump-brained timeline. Maybe, just maybe the Nobel Prize committee gave María Corina Machado the peace prize on her own merits, rather than so as not to give Trump the award while making it impossible for him to criticise their choice.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 3h

Interesting statement on the shadow fleet by an interesting group of countries from G7 and the Nordic-Baltic 8++: Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Statement: Shadow Fleet Task Force

On October 8, 2025, Canada and Denmark convened a meeting of the Shadow Fleet Task Force.

vm.ee

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Franz C. Mayer @mayerprof.bsky.social · 4h

Yep.
Jeder einzelne Satz der Begründung ist eine Backpfeife für Donald Trump. Bedeutung von Demokratie als Vorbedingung für Frieden, gegen Wahlfälschung etc. Das ist kein Zufall sondern eine Message. Sehr gut.

Frau Büüsker @uedio.bsky.social · 4h

Friedensnobelpreis für eine Frau aus Venezuela, die für Freiheit, Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Menschenrechte kämpft.
Besser kannste Trump nicht trollen.
Gratulation, María Corina Machado.

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Reposted by Franz C. Mayer, Nicolai von Ondarza

Frau Büüsker @uedio.bsky.social · 4h

Friedensnobelpreis für eine Frau aus Venezuela, die für Freiheit, Rechtsstaatlichkeit und Menschenrechte kämpft.
Besser kannste Trump nicht trollen.
Gratulation, María Corina Machado.

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Reposted by Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Jan W. Mueller , and 37 more Dani Rodrik, Stephen M. Walt, Jan W. Mueller, Christian Odendahl, Richard S.J. Tol, Colin F. Camerer, Robbert Sanderman, Gabriel Felbermayr, Steven Van de Walle, Alistair Munro, Michael A. Clemens, Cyrus Samii, Lucas Leemann, Francesco Saraceno, Laia Balcells, Andrew Curry, Paul Lehmann, Guy Grossman, Joshua Goodman, David Dorn, Ingo Rohlfing, Daniel W. Drezner, Iikka Korhonen, Aaron Sojourner, Daniel Huppmann, Julia Lynch, Rita Hamad, Nazita Lajevardi, Stacy D. VanDeveer, Henry Farrell, Dean Eckles, Maria Abreu, Dana R. Fisher, Jason Lyall, Bård Harstad, Christina Pagel, Jürgen Janger, Nicolai von Ondarza, Adam Tooze, Anita Gohdes

Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · 4h

I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Diego Velazquez @diegoinbxl.bsky.social · 6h

I agree, but the perception that the EU is German lead and defends most and foremost German interests (On Israel, budgetary constraints, defence, the euro, free trade etc.), is a very old and widespread one - and a German Commission president is a very obvious target for these traditional grievances

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Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 6h

"Brussels-bashing" is becoming fashionable again.

With Friedrich Merz sounding like a revenant Boris Johnson, fights over the long-term budget and unhappiness at EU-US trade, it's open season on Brussels.

My Charlemagne on the return of an old European scourge

www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

“Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame

Why bashing the EU is likely to become ever more popular

www.economist.com

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 6h

I'm not a comms expert, but I would strongly suggest those campaigning against the UK's withdrawal from the ECHR do not call themselves - or allow themselves to be called - 'Remain.'

Do British people want to leave the ECHR? What a decade of polls reveals

In the most recent YouGov poll on this issue, 54% of Conservative voters and 72% of Reform voters were in favour of leaving.

theconversation.com

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h

Taken together, I am seeing a French political class which is not only uploading its internal political crisis to the EU level, but also transposing its anger at Macron to an anger at the EU level pro-European centre.

Not a good combination.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h

-> Did these votes only come from the far-right and far-left?

No, even all the EPP parliamentarians from France either voted for the motion of censure (the only ones in the EPP) or abstained.

Only Renew voted overwhelming with von der Leyen, and even they had abstentions.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h

-> Although von der Leyen and her Commission easily won the vote, if you look at the country level, French MEPs in majority voted in favour.

This stands in big contrast to all other major EU countries, including Italy and Poland (though here many from the ECR abstained). Graph from @howtheyvote.eu

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Reposted by Catherine E. De Vries

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h

Looking back at yesterday's motions of censure against the EU Commission, they really drove down how France's political crisis is spilling over into the EU:

-> Both the far-left and the far-right motions of censures came from French MEPs, uploading their fight against 'centrists'

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23h

Occasionally stuff that you can do now with AI hits me, outside of all the slop.

Here is a video with everything - the music, the singing, the video - AI generated about a love of people who do not exist. Kind of crazy.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 1d

🚨 BREAKING: The European Commission will probe reports that Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán's spies targeted EU officials in Brussels.

Read the developing story: ow.ly/vSbA50X93ss

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

And yes, I still do miss the twitter of that time that had the political spectrum across the board and was not yet taken over fully by tech bros and the radicals.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

This was in 2019, so he is an 8y old by now 😱

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

I posted a joke about my then 2y old running around the house screaming 'order' because I watched so much House of Commons debates during Brexit.

Have it on authority that this was shown to Speaker John Bercow by an MP and isn't it great that we can have these kinds of silly connections sometimes?

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 2d

Has anything great happened in your life because of social media?

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Reposted by Kori Schake

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

On this, from a recent IISS analysis:

"Russia’s summer offensive has failed at enormous cost in troops. Its diplomatic strategy for America has fallen short. It faces a slow tsunami of European defence spending (...)
In short, time may no longer be on Russia’s side."

The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase

Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

www.iiss.org

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Reposted by Ben Tonra

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

An unsung success of the EU's Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP):

Jeanette Serritzlev @serritzlev.bsky.social · 1d

"President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine and the European Union are on track to match Russia’s annual artillery-round production by 2026, as reported in an interview on October 9."

UNITED24 Media @united24media.com · 1d

⚡️Zelenskyy says Ukraine and the EU will match—or even surpass—Russia’s artillery shell production by 2026.

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Reposted by Daniela Schwarzer, Catherine E. De Vries, Nicolai von Ondarza

Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 1d

❔| #TTP: Does France's Political Crisis Weaken Europe's Geopolitical Hand?

While the EU tries to navigate international challenges, France is experiencing historic political disarray. What impact will instability in Paris have on Europe's strategic capacity? ⤵️
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Taking the Pulse: Does France's Political Crisis Weaken Europe's Geopolitical Hand?

While the EU tries to navigate a myriad international challenges, France is experiencing historic political disarray. What impact will instability in Paris have on Europe's geostrategic capacity?

carnegieendowment.org

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

One for @tokarski.bsky.social

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Alright, then your next challenge is to write the Economist header what Europe can learn from the Polish and Spanish economies.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

The most important part of these polls are two aspects YouGov does not highlight - Reform UK are seen as both the party that 'offers [radical] change' and that does most to set the agenda.

At a time when the UK government is seen as failing, offering a radical, different agenda is most potent.

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 1d

Reform UK are the party Britons most associate with being patriotic, but also being weird and extreme

Extreme: 58% (+50 lead)
Offer change: 37% (+26)
Setting agenda: 36% (+27)
Patriotic: 35% (+27)
Likely win next election: 35% (+20)
Weird: 35% (+15)
Understands problems: 25% (+15)
Normal: 17% (+4)

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

No, but in the past the arguments against motions of censure by the European Parliament was that MEPs would also vote down Commissioners from across all parties. Now, the whole debate is about von der Leyen.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Interesting perspective with the no-confidence motions strengthening the Spitzenkandidatenprinciple.

It really is noteworthy that politically these motions are all about confidence in von der Leyen personally, whereas legally they are votes on the whole Commission.

Bernd 🇪🇺 Hüttemann #EurSky @huettemann.eu · 1d

Those declared dead live longer… Ironically, it’s the far right and nationalists who are pushing @europarl.europa.eu and @ec.europa.eu n closer together — strengthening parliamentarism. The #Spitzenkandidaten principle sneaks back in through the side door.

#EUsky

www.politico.eu/article/ursu...

Ursula von der Leyen wins no-confidence votes

European Commission president survives attempt at bringing her down.

www.politico.eu

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Bernd 🇪🇺 Hüttemann #EurSky @huettemann.eu · 1d

Ursula von der Leyen wins no-confidence votes

European Commission president survives attempt at bringing her down.

www.politico.eu

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Notably, the Commission got a higher votes against either motions than in July.

I read that as the centre-left and centre-right wanting to demonstrate that - for now - these series of motions of no-confidence are a waste of time.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

As expected, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu and her Commission squarely survived the twin far-right and far-left motions of no confidence.

Von der Leyen easily survives double no-confidence vote | Euractiv

This is von der Leyen’s second defence this year

www.euractiv.com

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