Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 980 following 2.9K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Economics 10%

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Sep 22

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · Sep 22

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1h

Currently, Bardella is winning the French Presidency in polls against all possible opponents. Though the election is still far off and no clear challenger from Macron's camp known, these type of polls already shape French/European politics.

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1h

🇫🇷 Présidentielle: Jordan Bardella serait élu président de la République si le scrutin avait lieu dimanche, l'emportant au second tour dans tous les cas de figure testés, selon un sondage Odoxa-Mascaret publié mardi et réalisé pour Public Sénat et la presse régionale ⤵️

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 1h

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 3h

🗳️Again, a 2/3 majority backed the report condemning the Orbán government’s rule-of-law violations in the EP: 415 in favour, 193 against, 28 abstentions. As the abstentions aren’t counted in the tally, the 2/3 majority stands, just as it did 7 years ago with the @judithsargentini.bsky.social report

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 4h

Dutch public broadcaster NOS (finally) stops posting on X.

The disadvantages are seen as too big. The reach has dwindled.

In the category, 'better late than never': good choice.

over.nos.nl/nieuws/nos-p...

NOS plaatst vanaf vandaag geen nieuwsberichten meer op X - Over NOS

De NOS en Nieuwsuur (NOS/NTR) zijn gestopt met posten op X. Het platform past niet meer bij onze visie op...

over.nos.nl

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5h

two Polish men who married in another EU country and then would file for divorce. All sorts of legal and political questions in such a case.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5h

Great to see. I remember a presentation from a great Polish colleague in a seminar on differentiated integration asking this very question a while back, whether and how Poland (which is not part of the enhanced cooperation on trans-European divorce law) would deal with, for example...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 5h

Great map of European soil -- so many different things to pick up on.

Reposted by Shannon Vallor, Richard S.J. Tol, Andrew Scott , and 9 more Shannon Vallor, Richard S.J. Tol, Andrew Scott, Steven French, Karin Wahl‐Jorgensen, Michelle Everson, Sara Wallace Goodman, Michael Jones‐Correa, Niels Keijzer, Aleksandra Urman, Césari Laurent, Nicolai von Ondarza

Dave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 5h

BREAKING: This is huge news, the EU's equivalent of the 🇺🇸Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.

🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.

This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺

www.reuters.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5h

A little more movement there, and UK polling would have 5 parties at basically 20% (in England, with SNP and PC leading in Scotland/Wales). Absolute madness/lottery for a first past the post system.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 6h

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 23-24 Nov.
Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Der (europäische) Föderalist @foederalist.eu · 5h

#Vertrauen ist eine Grundvoraussetzung für politische Stabilität, auf nationaler wie auf EU-Ebene. Aber wodurch entsteht es?

HENRIK SERUP CHRISTENSEN und JANETTE HUTTUNEN beschreiben einen Schlüsselfaktor: wirtschaftliche Sicherheit.

Auftakt einer Blogserie des Forschungsprojekts #ActEU

Wirtschaftliche Not mindert politisches Vertrauen

Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa

www.foederalist.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h

I found this 'Europe-Russia power balance' from IFRI really interesting on that. Shows that despite the economic imbalance Russia does have the stronger baseline on some, but certainly not all military aspects:

www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 6h

In practice they do. I ran the numbers here. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

A European way of war: Towards doctrine to defend against Russia, without the US - Garvan Walshe, 2025

Recent changes in US foreign policy and strategic posture have forced Europe to think about meeting its security needs without US support. One issue that requir...

journals.sagepub.com

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 6h

What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

LSE European Institute @lse-ei.bsky.social · 6h

In a new article based on his undergraduate thesis, our PhD candidate @lucasiepmann.bsky.social investigates whether post-Brexit British-German relations can be understood as “international friendship,” employing a novel framework in international relations theory👇

www.lse.ac.uk/european-ins...

“Freundship”? The deepening of British-German relations from pre- to post-Brexit

Our PhD candidate Luca Siepmann has published a new article in German Politics & Society based on his undergraduate dissertation, which investigates whether post-Brexit British-German relations can…

www.lse.ac.uk

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h

Most important point a US specialised colleague said was that for Trump, Vance and the MAGA republicans, European and transatlantic security are no longer indivisible.

Once you factor that in, it makes sense why the Trumpian US has no issues making huge concessions to Russia.

Reposted by Anand Menon

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6h

Yes, but it is also a fact now that there is a pattern to it.

As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 7h

The Trump cycle on Russia-Ukraine. Some pro-Russian plan emerges. Instant commentariat renew their "Trump as Russian plant" stories. Plan is amended under EU (and US) pressure. Putin rejects it. Instant commentariat is puzzled. Rinse and repeat. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...

How Rubio Tried to Bring a Pro-Russia Peace Plan to Middle Ground

www.nytimes.com

Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 6h

🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨

We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social

Any questions, please reach out to me

📣 Please share! 📣

jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Reposted by Christina Pagel, Nicolai von Ondarza

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 6h

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 23-24 Nov.
Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 7h

How Rubio Tried to Bring a Pro-Russia Peace Plan to Middle Ground

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Helmut Reisen, Nicolai von Ondarza

Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 7h

„Macron avait raison avec sa demande d‘autonomie strategique“. Erstaunliches Umdenken in @faznet.bsky.social

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Oliver Grimm @grimmse.bsky.social · 7h

The Melonisation of Europe.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7h

Do not mistake this as a small price - it would not only completely shatter the cordon sanitaire, it would make the centre-right to far-right exception into the main majority platform for the European Parliament.

A potential completion of the sea change at EU level.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 7h

(Not unexpected) power play by the far-right 'Patriots for Europe ' group - offering @president.europarl.europa.eu Metsola an unprecedented third term, for the price of fully lifting the cordon sanitaire and voting 'Patriots' MEPs into leading positions (via @euractiv.com).

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Security in Europe today is also quite a bit about flexible coalitions:

- lots of talk over the weekend with US/Ukraine by E3 (FR/DE/UK), partially with Poland
- rallying of support behind Ukraine by Nordic-Baltic-Eight
- Tomorrow meeting of the FR/UK-led coalitions of the willing

Caroline de Gruyter @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social · 1d

Once the most sceptical among Europeans, now the nordics take the lead
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...

Joint Statement by the Leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight

We – the leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight – spoke with President Zelenskyy today. We have from the outset of Russia’s war of aggression stood by Ukraine’s side and we will continue to do so. Our res...

www.regjeringen.no

Reposted by Ben Tonra, Nicolai von Ondarza

Caroline de Gruyter @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social · 1d

Once the most sceptical among Europeans, now the nordics take the lead
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...

Joint Statement by the Leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight

www.regjeringen.no

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

George Pearkes @peark.es · 1d

I want to make something very clear to everyone: I do not work for you. You don't sign my paychecks and the expectation that I do is frankly insane. Go away.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Andreas Dür @andduer.bsky.social · 1d

Here now a brief summary of the key ideas in our paper:
1.) US trade policy has historically been eclectic. At most times, it has combined liberal and protectionist elements.
2.) The international trade system has developed resilience to US departures from liberal commitments.

Andreas Dür @andduer.bsky.social · 5d

Very happy that my paper on the future of US trade policy, co-authored with Alessia Invernizzi, is part of this special issue

International Organization @iojournal.bsky.social · 5d

Our online special issue, The Future of Global Governance and World Order, is out!

It features 15 short essays plus the editors' introduction, all #OpenAccess.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

#IOFoGG

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 1d

Proofing 'The British General Election of 2024'. Here's Nigel Farage on election night 😆:

"If we had got 25 [seats] we wouldn’t have been entirely sure who or what we got. But we have five very solid sensible people who will be able to really push on … There will be no embarrassments...."

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

This statement highlights part of the problem of the EU's position on Ukraine and the 'Trump peace plan' - as first important achievement it stresses the efficient coordination amongst Europeans, and the resultiing unity.

But intra-European coordination and unity are not an end to themselves.