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Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 970 following 2.7K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 15d

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 15d

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Bernd 🇪🇺 Hüttemann #EurSky @huettemann.eu · 16h

go.bsky.app/2AF2pD8 thanks to @nvondarza.bsky.social I just included @cergrant.bsky.social to my and #EurSky

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 16h

Welcome to @cergrant.bsky.social on bluesky - always a great mind on all things EU and definite must-follow for everyone interested in European Affairs!

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 16h

Missed this earlier - as part of its series of bilateral arrangements with EU member states, the UK signed this strategic framework with Spain in early September.

It includes cooperation on defence, security, but also migration, foreign affairs, people to people, energy, climate and more:

Real Instituto Elcano / Elcano Royal Institute @rielcano.bsky.social · 16h

Spain was the only one of the four major EU economies without a bilateral agreement with the UK—until last month, when both countries signed a strategic framework.
✍️ William Chislett #InsideSpain
www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/commentar...

Spain and the UK deepen bilateral ties within a strategic framework

The UK-EU agreement on Gibraltar has unlocked a road map for greater cooperation between Spain and Britain.

www.realinstitutoelcano.org

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 17h

Always a matter of national decision, with delicate balance in semi-presidential systems. For instance Poland sends the PM, Romania the President. Both have systems with directly elected Presidents but also powerful governments.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 17h

All the attention in UK polls is on the leading position of reform.

But the First Past the Post System, with five parties above 10%, plus the regional strengths of the SNP (Scotland) and Plaid (Wales) should caution that the next election is going to be a most unpredictable affair.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 21h

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 27% (-2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
CON: 17% (+1)
LDM: 17% (+2)
GRN: 12% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 5-6 Oct.
Changes w/ 28-29 Sep.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 18h

Das Südchinesische Meer ist für China strategisch, wirtschaftlich & militärisch sehr wichtig. @angelastz.bsky.social @swp-asia.bsky.social erklärt, welche Interessen Europa & Deutschland in der Region haben & welche Folgen die aggressive Politik Chinas hat (ab 24.10) www.inforadio.de/rubriken/wel...

Konflikte im Südchinesischen Meer: Was will China?

Das Südchinesische Meer ist einer der gefährlichsten Brennpunkte der Weltpolitik - strategisch, wirtschaftlich und militärisch. Hier kreuzen sich die Handelsrouten Asiens, und genau hier fordert China...

www.inforadio.de

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 19h

The EU is seriously considering a new proposal to restrict the movements of Russian diplomats, a move long advocated by the Czech Republic.

Here's what we know.

EU considers new plan to restrict movements of Russian diplomats

If approved, the system would oblige Russian diplomats to notify in advance their intention to travel to or transit through another member state. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 19h

Hi all,

I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate from 37 to 6 percent, as covered by the Financial Times.

Access the full post here:

missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Short summary below.

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What Happened to Ukraine's Ballistic Missile Defense? Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness

Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness

missilematters.substack.com

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19h

It is not a direct feature from Bluesky, but if you follow @listifications.app they send you a DM if you are put on lists & starter packs (what I originally wanted to know) and also when someone blocks you.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 20h

* Apologies to Michael Kaeding - I unfortunately overlooked that autocorrect changed Kaeding to Harding :(

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 20h

It includes many analysis by great colleagues on all issues surrounding the EP2024 elections.

Among those is a deep dive by @beckermax.bsky.social and me on the fluid EP political groups, with a special focus on the changes amongst the far-right groups.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 20h

Now here in paper - the extensive book coordinated by Michael Harding, Alexander Hoppe and @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu on the EU 2024 elections:

www.springerprofessional.de/the-2024-eur...

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Alberto Rizzi @alberto-rizzi.bsky.social · 21h

I wrote my bachelor thesis on the enhanced cooperation clause as a desireable tool to go forward without waiting for Godot (aka reform of treaties) and nothing has developed on that front in the ten years that have passed. Totally share your skepticism.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 21h

Is the community method on its way out - multi-speed integration coming?

I remain a bit sceptical: a Europe of multiple speeds has been touted for a long time, but in practice the pressures to move with all EU-27 tend to be really high.

The EU enhanced cooperation clause has rarely been used...

Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 2d

In today’s Sunday Wrap I argue that this past week saw Berlin and Paris signal a move to more intergovernmental cooperation in the EU’s response to challenges posed by US and Russia. That’s good news.

independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...

independenteconomics.substack.com

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21h

Anybody who reads my work or my feed knows this is the exact opposite of what I am posting about. People like @spacer.bsky.social can you not at least check who you are putting on block lists?

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21h

Via clearsky.app you can check whether you are on some block lists. Turns out I am on a couple of block lists labeled as fascist, racists etc.

Why? Because I followed JD Vance account on here (which I do to check what he is posting for research)

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21h

I love using bluesky, but sometimes the community is wierd.

So I keep getting 'blocked' notifications, recently ~2-3 a week, in total I have now been blocked by 100+ people.

Not that it matters a lot, but I wanted to find out why.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Daniel Hegedus @danielhegedus.bsky.social · 21h

2/4
If Western actors fear the (re-)emergence of a Central European axis between Babiš, Orbán, and Fico, they should not respond to the Czech election results with reservations, but rather take a proactive approach.
www.authlib.eu/event-video-...

Event Video - Bohemia Illiberalis? Perspectives on Czechia’s Future After the Elections

What will the return of Andrej Babis mean for Czech domestic politics and foreign policy? Our experts discuss in the immediate aftermath of the parliamentary election.

www.authlib.eu

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22h

The same article includes a reference to an @swp-berlin.org paper that does not exist.

There are many ways AI can support research, but just letting it write your articles with fake citations certainly is not the way.

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.bsky.social · 22h

And here we go. I never wrote this article, and yet it is cited here.

www.liberalbriefs.com/geopolitics/...

And of course, it sounds so plausible, I seriously checked whether I had forgotten it, or the footnote was slightly wrong.

#AIisnotresearch

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22h

Both fringes are now strong enough to table motions of censure. But even if they strategically envoke controversial policies - ie Mercosur, vdL's stance on Gaza etc. - their ultimate aim is to weaken and destroy the pro-European centre.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22h

Provocative piece by @davekeating.substack.com, but with a conclusion I strongly disagree with.

Von der Leyen does not face the series of motions of censure due to her (also debatable) weakness in front of Trump, but because the far-left and particuarly the far-right are emboldened in EU politics.

Internationale Politik Quarterly @ipq.bsky.social · 5d

As part of our five-year anniversary, today we launched Close-Up, a profile series.

Up first: @davekeating.substack.com on Ursula von der Leyen, the notoriously controlling European Commission president, a year into her second term.

ip-quarterly.com/en/ursula-vo...

Ursula von der Leyen: Queen in the Commission, Servant in the Council

A year into her second term, the European Commission’s notoriously controlling president is attracting criticism for neutering her college of commissioners while blindly following the EU’s 27 national...

ip-quarterly.com

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23h

The thing about political power is, that even in a presidential system, if political authority is gone, its gone.

Despite everyone saying Macron will not resign, I find it hard to imagine he can keep this up until 2027 except if new parliamentary elections deliver a complete surprise.

Pascal @pascallth.bsky.social · 23h

Tough times for Macron

One former PM, Attal, has said he no longer understands what Macron is doing

Not to be outdone, another former PM, Philippe, has said he thinks there should be early presidential elections

Both lead parties within the notional 'Macronist' bloc

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

David Carretta @davidcarretta.bsky.social · 1d

Pilot episode number 4 for La Matinale Européenne in English

Starring @cspillmann.bsky.social : "Macron Scuttles France and Sinks Europe".

With @grimmse.bsky.social

We would be happy to have your feedback.

europemorningpost.substack.com/p/macron-scu...

Macron Scuttles France and Sinks Europe

Good morning!

europemorningpost.substack.com

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Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 1d

Bei der Wahl in Tschechien ist die rechtspopulistische Partei ANO von Andrej Babiš stärkste Kraft geworden. Im SWP-Podcast erklären @nvondarza.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social und Kai-Olaf Lang, wie der Einfluss von Rechtsaußenparteien in der EU wächst: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Wackelige Brandmauer? Wie Rechtsaußenparteien die Politik in Europa beeinflussen

Nationalistische und populistische Parteien sind in vielen EU-Mitgliedstaaten auf dem Vormarsch. Kai-Olaf Lang und Nicolai von Ondarza...

www.swp-berlin.org

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