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Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

Hi all,

I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate from 37 to 6 percent, as covered by the Financial Times.

Access the full post here:

missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Short summary below.

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What Happened to Ukraine's Ballistic Missile Defense? Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness

Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness

missilematters.substack.com

4 27 110

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 20h

Brave new world oder so

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

Many thanks! I'm trying to hit that sweet spot between nerdy analysis and something that also average people not part of our field can follow.

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Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann

Corporal Frisk @corporalfrisk.com · 23h

I subscribe to too many emails, but one of the few I actually read is Missile Matters. It’s suitably geeky, and provides a deeper understanding of missile warfare which is a topic you see discussed surprisingly often in news and social media these days 😅

This week’s conclusions are spot on.

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

Not yet a subscriber of Missile Matters? You can do so here via this link and receive regular updates on the missile war in Ukraine, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence.

missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

Subscribe to Missile Matters — with Fabian Hoffmann

Missile Matters is my personal blog, where I share insights on the latest developments in the nuclear and missile domains in Ukraine and beyond. If Putin decides to nuke us all, you will read about ...

missilematters.substack.com

17

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

Ukraine’s interceptor shortage may also contribute to the drop in intercept rates, though this does not explain why rates remained significantly higher in August, given that the shortage has been a persistent issue for months.

In the end, the drop likely relates to a confluence of factors.

6/6

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

However, the drop in intercept rates may also be primarily explained by Russia targeting non-defended areas.

Since Ukraine doesn't publish data on how many BMs were actually engaged, it is ultimately impossible to distinguish between attempted and non-attempted intercepts.

5/6

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

A steeper trajectory, compared to a more shallow one, may trade lateral maneuverability for greater vertical momentum and reduced reaction time.

Given that the PAC-3 MSE is agile and can compensate for lateral movements relatively well, this may be a worthwhile tradeoff.

4/6

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

Nevertheless, it is reported that trajectory adaptations, most notably steeper trajectories, are now being used to better circumvent Ukraine’s ballistic missile defense.

This is at least somewhat plausible, though it cannot be fully confirmed from the outside.

3/6

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

First, the fact that Russian ballistic missiles can maneuver is neither new nor surprising. Western ballistic missile defense interceptors, including the PAC-2 GEM-T, PAC-3 MSE, and Aster 30B1/B1NG, were specifically designed with this threat profile in mind.

2/6

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 21h

Hi all,

I published my latest Missile Matters post earlier today, examining the reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile intercept rate from 37 to 6 percent, as covered by the Financial Times.

Access the full post here:

missilematters.substack.com/p/what-happe...

Short summary below.

1/6

What Happened to Ukraine's Ballistic Missile Defense? Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness

Explaining the Reported Drop in Patriot's Effectiveness

missilematters.substack.com

4 27 110

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 1d

I’ve written a short piece on the recent reported drop in Ukraine’s ballistic missile defense intercept rate.

It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.

missilematters.substack.com/subscribe

3 10 74

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 12d

European defense manufacturer Helsing presented the CA-1 Europa, a UCAV reportedly capable of performing a range of missions, including deep precision strike.

First test flight expected in 2027.

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 13d

Thanks for sharing!

Yes it's an insane effort. I was once told by a mini jet engine manufacturer that sometimes an engine doesn't work and they can't figure out why that's the case. Then they just have to throw it away.

2

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 14d

So this might sustain the 50 per month number for 2 to 4 months, which is why localization of production and vertical integration is critical.

Good to hear that Fire Point is moving in that direction.

I still maintain that 20 engines per month would be significant, if it can be achieved.

2/2

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 14d

If I did not have to finish my dissertation, I would probably look up the number of AI-25 turbofan engines that can be sources from the open market.

My ballpark estimate is a low three digit number.

1/2

militarnyi.com/uk/news/fire...

Fire Point локалізує виробництво реактивних двигунів для крилатих ракет

Fire Point створила запас реактивних двигунів для крилатих ракет «Фламінго» та будує новий завод для їх ліцензійного виробництва.

militarnyi.com

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 14d

lol

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKyu...

Fox News Analyst Who Seemed To Be Tipsy on Air Speaks Out

YouTube video by Inside Edition

www.youtube.com

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 14d

This seems extremely odd. Even if NATO were to shoot down aircraft, that doesn't automatically mean nuclear war.

Who even is the author?

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 14d

The documents show 2.373 billion euros in funding for Taurus NEO.

This is similar to the 2.1 billion euros reported by Spiegel 11 months ago for 600 missiles. The slight increase may reflect higher material costs or a somewhat larger number of missiles being ordered

www.politico.eu/article/germ...

Germany’s €80B rearmament plan sidelines US weapons

A procurement plan obtained by POLITICO shows Berlin’s rearmament spree will overwhelmingly benefit European industry.

www.politico.eu

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Reposted by Fabian Hoffmann

Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 16d

Hi all,

I just published my latest Missile Matters post on the precarious state of Europe's mini jet engine industry, a sector that is critical to Europe's missile rearmament but remains underappreciated.

Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/small-thru...

Short summary below.

1/7

Small Thrust, Big Questions: Why Europe is Falling Behind in Cruise Missile Engine Technology

Europe's missile rearmament faces a critical bottleneck in mini jet engine production

missilematters.substack.com

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 16d

Its okay, I just had a German general explain to me that Germany doesn't need to invest in conventional long-range strike weapons because the United States is our ally 🙃

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 16d

European decisionmakers need to start taking cruise missile engine production seriously.

The necessity may not be immediately as clear as building a new artillery shell plant, but it is just as urgently needed.

7/7

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 16d

This means European cruise missile programs, including the Taurus KEPD 350 and the Joint Strike Missile, will continue to depend on U.S. turbofan manufacturers for the foreseeable future, which is far from ideal from a strategic autonomy perspective.

6/7

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 16d

Even more problematic, European industry does not have an indigenous mini turbofan to offer.

While European engine makers, including Safran, MTU, and Rolls-Royce, build or contribute to turbofan engines for aircraft, none have gone through the process of miniaturization.

5/7

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Fabian Hoffmann @frhoffmann.bsky.social · 16d

However, Safran only supplies high-end turbojet engines that are not suitable for the large numbers of lighter cruise missiles Europe will require.

This is why the Czech manufacturer PBS, which produces suitable engines, but is orienting itself toward the US, is bad news for Europe.

4/7

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