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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 48m

Demand drives ROI which drives investment.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 48m

Sure seems like Germany may be contemplating managed accelerated decline of its automotive sector. :)

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 49m

The problem that dare not speak its name. Europe's demand for products like steel and cars is diminishing. The growth is happening a long way away. And you probably can't protect what you have and compete somewhere else.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

German auto summit tomorrow.

The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today

Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.

But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 50m

A clear case for some consumer subsidies!

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Reposted by Sander Tordoir

Jonas Nahm @jonasnahm.com · 1h

Germany apparently not so sure it wants to save its auto sector by making it competitive.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

German auto summit tomorrow.

The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today

Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.

But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.

1/

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

It is a pretty dire indictment on the quality of German policy-making if we blast billions on stay-at-home subsidies and gastronomy tax cuts.

And do nothing for our most important industry bringing in 90bn in tax receipts, other than killing the ICE phaseout cuz we want to stay in the 20th century

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

German auto summit tomorrow.

The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today

Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.

But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.

1/

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

So bottom line: the risk for Germany is that if it does not move to shore up car demand, it will face a much higher bill for lost tax receipts, bailouts, unemployment schemes and retraining in a year or two.

The choice here for Berlin is pay now — or pay much more later.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

Now reverse the logic: shielding 18 per cent of German EV production would surely generate substantial fiscal return effects — via higher VAT and avoiding lost corporate-income and wage-tax revenues.

Germany’s car industry brings in more than €90 billion in taxes. A bit more than, say, gastro

5/

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

An ECB paper suggests that a 15% price gap of Chinese vehicles cuts German makers’ global share by ~18pp.

The EU's EV tariffs clearly aren't enough - the renminbi's drop against the euro this year alone gives Chinese cars another 10% advantage.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

Support has a fiscal cost, but so does inaction. Pretty clear to me how the balance pans out.

Germany's Umweltbonus was ~€2.4bn before it was cut; sizeable but not a massive amount for the German budget (battery electric vehicle sales fell 27% in 2024 after the programme was slashed btw...)

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

Let's be clear: car demand is terrible.

EU demand for cars is ~20% below 2019; German net car exports are down 50% since before the pandemic; Chinese car exports are clipping in at a staggering ~9 million cars a year.

Without a European demand offset, domestic production shrinks.

2/

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1h

German auto summit tomorrow.

The sole focus on the EU combustion engine phase-out, which is 10 years away, is baffling because German cars have a demand problem today

Berlin worries a new EV subsidy scheme would be fiscally too expensive.

But demand-side support is a fiscal no-brainer here.

1/

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Reposted by Sander Tordoir

Felix Hamer • electricfelix @electricfelix.bsky.social · 21h

Xiaoying You: "Nearly 80% of CATL’s overseas investment has been in Europe. The company has pumped $12.3 billion into three production hubs, according to the September analysis. Its German facility is up and running, while its plants in Hungary and Spain are under construction." #battchat

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 20h

Yup.

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 21h

Sefcovic hints more probes on the way against China!

"We are of course looking at other sectors that are most affected by trade volatility and if need be, we would be acting also in in other sectors."

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

Perhaps we are now moving into a world where the community method goes on the backburner.

With small defence, industrial policy, and other coalitions of willing EU member-states.

Never thought the steamroll/bribery of Hungary was especially difficult, but there are now more blocking countries.

Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 1d

This reflects well the majority of feedback I got in the note.
Yet, the present state of affairs (community agreements after delays and “bribery” of small hold-outs along with watering down proposals) is not sustainable.
So what’s going to give?
I think it’ll be the community methods.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

Is the community method on its way out - multi-speed integration coming?

I remain a bit sceptical: a Europe of multiple speeds has been touted for a long time, but in practice the pressures to move with all EU-27 tend to be really high.

The EU enhanced cooperation clause has rarely been used...

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 1d

Is the community method on its way out - multi-speed integration coming?

I remain a bit sceptical: a Europe of multiple speeds has been touted for a long time, but in practice the pressures to move with all EU-27 tend to be really high.

The EU enhanced cooperation clause has rarely been used...

Erik Fossing Nielsen @erikfossingnielsen.bsky.social · 3d

In today’s Sunday Wrap I argue that this past week saw Berlin and Paris signal a move to more intergovernmental cooperation in the EU’s response to challenges posed by US and Russia. That’s good news.

independenteconomics.substack.com/publish/post...

Sign in to Sunday Wrap by Erik F. Nielsen

independenteconomics.substack.com

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Reposted by Sander Tordoir

Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 1d

If they really have been dumping pasta they should be thrown in a penne-tentiary...

EU backs Italy in Trump’s pasta tariff war - on.ft.com/46BiEXE via @FT

EU backs Italy in Trump’s pasta tariff war

US threatens to apply tariffs of up to 107% on Barilla and other makes of Italian staple over alleged dumping

on.ft.com

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

I was moved by this tribute to Jean Pisani-Ferry's remarkable acceptance speech for the Legion d’honneur.

Profoundly courageous for Jean to take the occassion to reflect on our collective failings in international trade and climate policy, and EU integration

adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...

Chartbook 411 The twilight of Macronisme: Jean Pisani-Ferry's cri de cœur.

A decoration ceremony is like a funeral oration with a right of reply.

adamtooze.substack.com

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

Would agree with Nils — this isn’t your typical wrangling as the sausage gets made.

COM, member-states, and EP are negotiating with what machine the sausage factory will be equipped— in some ways if there’s a factory at all, or we keep producing chickens.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

I like that

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

Or as Nils says far more politely than me.

If the EU budget reform fails Europe should get more serious about multi speed integration - the defence center of gravity is moving north and east: industrial and innovation policy can be built on top of that.

Nils Redeker @nilsredeker.bsky.social · 3d

The Conservatives in the European Parliament appear to be preparing a resolution to reject the Commission’s proposal for the next EU budget.

At this point, that could kill the entire package - and would be an incredibly self-defeating move.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3d

🫠

haha. Just the title of the FT piece!

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

If the European Parliament goes ahead with this here’s my proposal:

The EU budget is slashed to 0.9% of GDP, covering the interest burden for RRF and Ukraine loans gets taken out of CAP and Cohesion.

Scandis, Germany and the Netherlands put together our own industrial policy fund.

Fair? Agreed.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

If this goes through, Berlin, the Hague, Scandinavians and other frugals will take a hard line: insist that budget will be capped at 1% of GDP.

And they’ll be right: no need to be constructive if EU budget spending modernisation is dead.

EP will have done itself and the Union a disservice.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

Mamma Mia.

To placate the farm lobby, the EPP is considering an amendment that would scupper the entire EU budget reform.

If agri gets an exemption from the EU budget overhaul, social and other spending categories follow and modernisation goes out the window.

A EPP disaster in the making.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

If this goes through, Berlin, the Hague, Scandinavians and other frugals will take a hard line: insist that budget will be capped at 1% of GDP.

And they’ll be right: no need to be constructive if EU budget spending modernisation is dead.

EP will have done itself and the Union a disservice.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

Mamma Mia.

To placate the farm lobby, the EPP is considering an amendment that would scupper the entire EU budget reform.

If agri gets an exemption from the EU budget overhaul, social and other spending categories follow and modernisation goes out the window.

A EPP disaster in the making.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

If they slash agriculture out of the NRPPs then the S&D will take out social money and we end up with no change whatsoever to the budget allocation.

NRPPS are the vehicle to let redeployment of funds happen to R&D, defence and other prios.

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

Mamma Mia.

To placate the farm lobby, the EPP is considering an amendment that would scupper the entire EU budget reform.

If agri gets an exemption from the EU budget overhaul, social and other spending categories follow and modernisation goes out the window.

A EPP disaster in the making.

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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4d

Mamma Mia.

To placate the farm lobby, the EPP is considering an amendment that would scupper the entire EU budget reform.

If agri gets an exemption from the EU budget overhaul, social and other spending categories follow and modernisation goes out the window.

A EPP disaster in the making.

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