Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 980 following 2.8K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Economics 10%

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Sep 22

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · Sep 22

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 11h

Security in Europe today is also quite a bit about flexible coalitions:

- lots of talk over the weekend with US/Ukraine by E3 (FR/DE/UK), partially with Poland
- rallying of support behind Ukraine by Nordic-Baltic-Eight
- Tomorrow meeting of the FR/UK-led coalitions of the willing

Caroline de Gruyter @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social · 11h

Once the most sceptical among Europeans, now the nordics take the lead
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...

Joint Statement by the Leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight

We – the leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight – spoke with President Zelenskyy today. We have from the outset of Russia’s war of aggression stood by Ukraine’s side and we will continue to do so. Our res...

www.regjeringen.no

Reposted by Ben Tonra, Nicolai von Ondarza

Caroline de Gruyter @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social · 11h

Once the most sceptical among Europeans, now the nordics take the lead
www.regjeringen.no/en/whats-new...

Joint Statement by the Leaders of the Nordic-Baltic Eight

www.regjeringen.no

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

George Pearkes @peark.es · 11h

I want to make something very clear to everyone: I do not work for you. You don't sign my paychecks and the expectation that I do is frankly insane. Go away.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Andreas Dür @andduer.bsky.social · 12h

Here now a brief summary of the key ideas in our paper:
1.) US trade policy has historically been eclectic. At most times, it has combined liberal and protectionist elements.
2.) The international trade system has developed resilience to US departures from liberal commitments.

Andreas Dür @andduer.bsky.social · 4d

Very happy that my paper on the future of US trade policy, co-authored with Alessia Invernizzi, is part of this special issue

International Organization @iojournal.bsky.social · 4d

Our online special issue, The Future of Global Governance and World Order, is out!

It features 15 short essays plus the editors' introduction, all #OpenAccess.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

#IOFoGG

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 12h

Proofing 'The British General Election of 2024'. Here's Nigel Farage on election night 😆:

"If we had got 25 [seats] we wouldn’t have been entirely sure who or what we got. But we have five very solid sensible people who will be able to really push on … There will be no embarrassments...."

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 12h

This statement highlights part of the problem of the EU's position on Ukraine and the 'Trump peace plan' - as first important achievement it stresses the efficient coordination amongst Europeans, and the resultiing unity.

But intra-European coordination and unity are not an end to themselves.

Paula Pinho @chiefspokesperson.ec.europa.eu · 13h

Statement by President @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu following the EU leaders' meeting on Ukraine ↓

link.europa.eu/Hky37c

Statement by President von der Leyen following the EU leaders\' meeting on Ukraine

An efficient and coordinated European engagement, as well as a strong European presence in Geneva has allowed us to make good progress in the negotiations for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. Whil

link.europa.eu

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Paula Pinho @chiefspokesperson.ec.europa.eu · 13h

Statement by President @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu following the EU leaders' meeting on Ukraine ↓

link.europa.eu/Hky37c

Statement by President von der Leyen following the EU leaders\' meeting on Ukraine

link.europa.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13h

Meanwhile, in Austria...

Europe Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 13h

Austria, Market poll:

FPÖ-PfE: 37% (+2)
ÖVP-EPP: 19% (-3)
SPÖ-S&D: 19% (-1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11% (+2)
NEOS-RE: 10%
KPÖ-LEFT: 3%

+/- vs. 24-30 July 2025

Fieldwork: 17-20 November 2025
Sample size: 818

➤ europeelects.eu/austria

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Europe Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 13h

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13h

As someone who studied in the UK together as an EU citizen together with lots of other UK and European students, this loss of connections still saddens me.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 13h

No European country left in the top 10 countries of origin for international students.

Matching the pattern in overall migration to the UK, after Brexit there was a sharp drop off from the EU, and a rise from the rest of the world.

Reposted by Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers, Peter Holmes , and 1 more Jonathan Portes, Steve Peers, Peter Holmes, Nicolai von Ondarza

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 17h

Trade folk (including myself) are unconvinced there is much of a growth dividend for Rachel Reeves from agreements with India, EU, and US. Just as there's no evidence of positive impact from independent UK trade policy since 2021. www.politico.eu/article/rach...

Rachel Reeves hopes trade deals can save Britain’s budget. Economists aren’t convinced.

With a difficult budget looming, the chancellor has increasingly turned her gaze overseas.

www.politico.eu

Reposted by Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Steve Peers , and 22 more Will Jennings, Brendan Nyhan, Steve Peers, Samuel L. Perry, Rosemary A. Joyce, David Rothschild, Jacob Montgomery, Alan Lester, Melanie C. Green, Peter Stewart, Rebecca Tushnet, Aaron Sojourner, McKenzie Wark, Stephen Ryan, Michael D. McDonald, David J. Berri, Ann Bartow, Iñaki Aldasoro, Greg Linden, Julie Novkov, Tim Stephens, Daxton R. Stewart, Nicolai von Ondarza, Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò, Francesco Nicoli

derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 1d

Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.

My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.

A Twitter account called Ivanka News tweets an AI image of a young woman wearing Muslim garb. The woman is holding a sign that says "I came here illegally. Should I be deported?"

Ivanka News writes: What is your response to this person ??

In the "About this account" tab, it appears the account is based in Nigeria

An account called MAGA scope writes:

Who, in your view is the great enemy of the United States? Communism, Islam, Democratic Party, or Satan?

The account is based in Nigeria.

An account called MAGA Nadine writes: You go to work and find this. What would you do? The attached pic is an AI image that shows a microwave. The microwave has a sign that says "For religious reasons, this microwave is now making halal food only."

The account is based in Morocco.

An account called America First posts an AI image of Tulsi Gabbard. They wrote: How would you rate your trust in Tulsi Gabbard on a scale of 1-10?

Reposted by Carlo Masala, Nicolai von Ondarza

Linn Selle @linnselle.bsky.social · 3d

Alles was zum russisch-amerikanischen "Friedensplan" zu sagen ist:
@carlomasala1.bsky.social

www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Sabine Fischer @sabfis3.bsky.social · 3d

Feeling both humbled and proud to see my book on
@gideonrachman.bsky.social’s Best Books of 2025 list!! Thank you!

👇👇

www.ft.com/content/3cda.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 3d

Neither a Russia nor a Ukraine expert (and at home with a sick kid) but everything I am reading about the Ukraine 'peace' plan reads as much as a capitulation for Ukraine as a capitulation for Europe.

Grim, but also a last chance for Europeans to show their ability to say no to Trump.

Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3d

The plan says that "A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States." This implies that both Russia and the Trump administration don't see the US as part of NATO in any real sense. That should deeply alarm every other NATO state.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3d

The whole draft agreement is full of economic sweeteners for the US and focused on the future development of US-Russia economic ties. This is what Trump keeps coming back to when he talks about the end of the war, so is presumably aimed at keeping him happy.

Reposted by Richard S.J. Tol, Nicolai von Ondarza

Ruth Deyermond @ruthdeyermond.bsky.social · 3d

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Daniel Fiott @danielfiott.bsky.social · 4d

This week, the EU published its military mobility package with the aim of creating a “Military Schengen” by 2027. I know, I know. It seems like we are always working on this without much progress.

What does the package say or do?

A 🧵

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

EUSPA - EU Agency for the Space Programme @euspa.bsky.social · 4d

Ariane 6 is set to launch two new Galileo satellites on 17 December 2025, at 2:01 a.m. local time (5:01 a.m. UTC, 6:01 a.m. CET),) from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana.

The satellites, SAT 33–34, will further reinforce Europe’s navigation capability.

Ariane 6 rocket lifting off from the launch pad with bright exhaust flames and thick clouds of smoke rising around the structure. The sky is partly cloudy, and the image includes overlaid text reading ‘Ariane 6 to launch 2 new Galileo satellites,’ along with EUSPA and EU logos and a graphic of the Galileo satellite fairing.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Juliana Suess @julianasuess.bsky.social · 5d

Zeitenwende: Space Edition 🚀

Germany has just published its first space security strategy.

Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action

(link also leads to english PDF)

Verantwortung im All: Erste Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie der Bundesregierung

Freiheit und Sicherheit werden auch im Weltraum verteidigt. Pistorius und Wadephul stellen Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie vor.

www.bmvg.de

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6d

I am not (yet) that pessimistic, but if that were to happen, it would be a real, major political miscalculation from both sides.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6d

These briefing wars and grandstanding threats are really a sorry sight, for both sides, especially at a time when working together is so important. My guess is that a 'fair and reasonable' level of contribution will be found, though likely not before some silly bargaining.

The Times & Sunday Times @thetimes.com · 6d

Ministers have warned the European Union that the UK will walk away from the bloc’s rearmament programme, after rejecting French demands to pay more than £5bn to participate

UK could walk away from EU rearmament plan over French demands

www.thetimes.com

Reposted by Albert Weale, Nicolai von Ondarza

The Times & Sunday Times @thetimes.com · 6d

Ministers have warned the European Union that the UK will walk away from the bloc’s rearmament programme, after rejecting French demands to pay more than £5bn to participate

UK could walk away from EU rearmament plan over French demands

www.thetimes.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6d

Having spent a year in the US in the late 1990s, I distinctly remember a President about less than three decades ago whose sex life was of very high public interest...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 6d

I had access to Gemini 3. It is a very good, very fast model. It also demonstrates the change from chatbot to agent. www.oneusefulthing.org/p/three-year...

Three Years from GPT-3 to Gemini 3

From chatbots to agents

www.oneusefulthing.org

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6d

"Trust under fire" seems an apt event for Cloudflare to be hosting today...

Cloudflare @cloudflare.social · 6d

Happening today, join the Security Leaders Forum "Trust Under Fire: Turning Insider Threat Frameworks into Action". Register now: https://cfl.re/4rcspUv

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 6d

E3 'working dinner' between Merz, Macron and Starmer tonight. Broad range of issues, but note UK journalist mixing issues of cooperation (Ukraine, Middle East) with issues of EU-UK conflict (SAFE, steel):

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 6d

Es geht darum, die Abhängigkeit Europas von den USA zu verringern. Wie & wo die USA das globale Cybersicherheits-Ökosystem beherrschen und warum das für Europa zum Problem werden könnte, erklärt @alexandrapaulus.bsky.social @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Europas Cybersicherheit hängt an den USA

Wie europäische Regierungen mehr Verantwortung übernehmen können

www.swp-berlin.org

Reposted by Robert Wolfe, Maria Abreu, Nicolai von Ondarza

Matt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 6d

Cloudflare outage destroys all human communication except Bluesky, this is the weirdest sci-fi scenario I’ve ever seen

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