Nicolai von Ondarza

@nvondarza.bsky.social

13K followers 980 following 2.9K posts

Political scientist with a passion for EU affairs, Geek with a passion for technology. Head of Europe Division at @SWP-Berlin.org. Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.bsky.social Europe Programme. All views are personal. Journey before Destination. .. more

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Political science 80%

Economics 10%

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · Sep 22

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics.

Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · Sep 22

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation":
fiia.fi/en/publicati...

Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe".

I wish I'd been more wrong.

The Creeping Integration of Far-right Parties in Europe

Where Far-right Parties Are Integrated into the EU System and Where They Are Not

www.swp-berlin.org

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Falk Steiner @fsteiner.bsky.social · 11h

This is just terrible: a US official advising the Russians how to play Trump.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Witkoff Discusses Ukraine Plans With Key Putin Aide: Transcript

The following is a transcript of an Oct. 14 phone call lasting just over 5 minutes between Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy for peace missions, and Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s most senio...

www.bloomberg.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 11h

Another pattern Germany shares currently with the UK - little democratic patience as Merz is already less popular than Scholz a few months into the government, just as Starmer was almost immediately amongst the most unpopular prime ministers.

Deutschland Wählt / Österreich Wählt @de.whln.eu · 13h

Sind Sie mit der bisherigen Arbeit von Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz zufrieden? | Umfrage Forsa/RTL, n-tv

Ja: 23% (-2)
Nein: 75% (+2)
Weiß nicht: 2%

Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 18. November 2025
#btw29

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Deutschland Wählt / Österreich Wählt @de.whln.eu · 13h

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 15h

Although there are certainly some Mercosur specificities to this story, another example of how unpredictable - and to some extend less controllable - the European Parliament is in this legislative period:

Euractiv @euractiv.com · 15h

EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary: A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal

EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary

A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal

dlvr.it

Reposted by Steve Peers, Nicolai von Ondarza

Euractiv @euractiv.com · 15h

EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary: A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal

EPP Mercosur fast-track bid collapses at plenary

A panic-driven U-turn exposed deep divisions in the Parliament over the deal

dlvr.it

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 17h

Currently, Bardella is winning the French Presidency in polls against all possible opponents. Though the election is still far off and no clear challenger from Macron's camp known, these type of polls already shape French/European politics.

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 17h

🇫🇷 Présidentielle: Jordan Bardella serait élu président de la République si le scrutin avait lieu dimanche, l'emportant au second tour dans tous les cas de figure testés, selon un sondage Odoxa-Mascaret publié mardi et réalisé pour Public Sénat et la presse régionale ⤵️

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 17h

Reposted by Laurent Pech, Nicolai von Ondarza

Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 18h

🗳️Again, a 2/3 majority backed the report condemning the Orbán government’s rule-of-law violations in the EP: 415 in favour, 193 against, 28 abstentions. As the abstentions aren’t counted in the tally, the 2/3 majority stands, just as it did 7 years ago with the @judithsargentini.bsky.social report

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 20h

Dutch public broadcaster NOS (finally) stops posting on X.

The disadvantages are seen as too big. The reach has dwindled.

In the category, 'better late than never': good choice.

over.nos.nl/nieuws/nos-p...

NOS plaatst vanaf vandaag geen nieuwsberichten meer op X - Over NOS

De NOS en Nieuwsuur (NOS/NTR) zijn gestopt met posten op X. Het platform past niet meer bij onze visie op...

over.nos.nl

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21h

two Polish men who married in another EU country and then would file for divorce. All sorts of legal and political questions in such a case.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21h

Great to see. I remember a presentation from a great Polish colleague in a seminar on differentiated integration asking this very question a while back, whether and how Poland (which is not part of the enhanced cooperation on trans-European divorce law) would deal with, for example...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Stanley Pignal @spignal.bsky.social · 21h

Great map of European soil -- so many different things to pick up on.

Reposted by Shannon Vallor, Richard S.J. Tol, Andrew Scott , and 11 more Shannon Vallor, Richard S.J. Tol, Andrew Scott, Steven French, Karin Wahl‐Jorgensen, Michelle Everson, Sara Wallace Goodman, Michael Jones‐Correa, Catherine J. Frieman, Federica Genovese, Niels Keijzer, Aleksandra Urman, Césari Laurent, Nicolai von Ondarza

Dave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 21h

BREAKING: This is huge news, the EU's equivalent of the 🇺🇸Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.

🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.

This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺

www.reuters.com

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21h

A little more movement there, and UK polling would have 5 parties at basically 20% (in England, with SNP and PC leading in Scotland/Wales). Absolute madness/lottery for a first past the post system.

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 22h

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 23-24 Nov.
Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Der (europäische) Föderalist @foederalist.eu · 21h

#Vertrauen ist eine Grundvoraussetzung für politische Stabilität, auf nationaler wie auf EU-Ebene. Aber wodurch entsteht es?

HENRIK SERUP CHRISTENSEN und JANETTE HUTTUNEN beschreiben einen Schlüsselfaktor: wirtschaftliche Sicherheit.

Auftakt einer Blogserie des Forschungsprojekts #ActEU

Wirtschaftliche Not mindert politisches Vertrauen

Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa

www.foederalist.eu

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21h

I found this 'Europe-Russia power balance' from IFRI really interesting on that. Shows that despite the economic imbalance Russia does have the stronger baseline on some, but certainly not all military aspects:

www.ifri.org/en/studies/e...

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Garvan Walshe @garvanwalshe.org · 22h

In practice they do. I ran the numbers here. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

A European way of war: Towards doctrine to defend against Russia, without the US - Garvan Walshe, 2025

Recent changes in US foreign policy and strategic posture have forced Europe to think about meeting its security needs without US support. One issue that requir...

journals.sagepub.com

Reposted by James Cameron, Nicolai von Ondarza

Anand Menon @anandmenon.bsky.social · 22h

What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

LSE European Institute @lse-ei.bsky.social · 22h

In a new article based on his undergraduate thesis, our PhD candidate @lucasiepmann.bsky.social investigates whether post-Brexit British-German relations can be understood as “international friendship,” employing a novel framework in international relations theory👇

www.lse.ac.uk/european-ins...

“Freundship”? The deepening of British-German relations from pre- to post-Brexit

Our PhD candidate Luca Siepmann has published a new article in German Politics & Society based on his undergraduate dissertation, which investigates whether post-Brexit British-German relations can…

www.lse.ac.uk

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22h

Most important point a US specialised colleague said was that for Trump, Vance and the MAGA republicans, European and transatlantic security are no longer indivisible.

Once you factor that in, it makes sense why the Trumpian US has no issues making huge concessions to Russia.

Reposted by Anand Menon, Francesco Nicoli

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22h

Yes, but it is also a fact now that there is a pattern to it.

As the saying goes, fool me once, shame on you, fool my twice, shame on me. The Europeans should no longer dellude themselves that a Trump/Vance US can be a reliable ally.

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 22h

The Trump cycle on Russia-Ukraine. Some pro-Russian plan emerges. Instant commentariat renew their "Trump as Russian plant" stories. Plan is amended under EU (and US) pressure. Putin rejects it. Instant commentariat is puzzled. Rinse and repeat. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/u...

How Rubio Tried to Bring a Pro-Russia Peace Plan to Middle Ground

www.nytimes.com

Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 22h

🚨 LSE Assistant Professor in Political Science 🚨

We’re hiring a tenure-track assistant professor - any area of empirical political science - to join our wonderful Government Dept @lsegovernment.bsky.social

Any questions, please reach out to me

📣 Please share! 📣

jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Reposted by Christina Pagel, Nicolai von Ondarza

Election Maps UK @electionmaps.uk · 22h

Westminster Voting Intention:

RFM: 25% (-2)
LAB: 19% (=)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 16% (-1)
LDM: 15% (+2)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @yougov.co.uk, 23-24 Nov.
Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 22h

How Rubio Tried to Bring a Pro-Russia Peace Plan to Middle Ground

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by Helmut Reisen, Nicolai von Ondarza

Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 23h

„Macron avait raison avec sa demande d‘autonomie strategique“. Erstaunliches Umdenken in @faznet.bsky.social

Reposted by Nicolai von Ondarza

Oliver Grimm @grimmse.bsky.social · 23h

The Melonisation of Europe.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23h

Do not mistake this as a small price - it would not only completely shatter the cordon sanitaire, it would make the centre-right to far-right exception into the main majority platform for the European Parliament.

A potential completion of the sea change at EU level.

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23h

(Not unexpected) power play by the far-right 'Patriots for Europe ' group - offering @president.europarl.europa.eu Metsola an unprecedented third term, for the price of fully lifting the cordon sanitaire and voting 'Patriots' MEPs into leading positions (via @euractiv.com).

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 1d

Security in Europe today is also quite a bit about flexible coalitions:

- lots of talk over the weekend with US/Ukraine by E3 (FR/DE/UK), partially with Poland
- rallying of support behind Ukraine by Nordic-Baltic-Eight
- Tomorrow meeting of the FR/UK-led coalitions of the willing