James Cameron
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jjjcameron.bsky.social
James Cameron
@jjjcameron.bsky.social

Associate Prof of Modern North American History at the University of Oslo, Norway. Nuclear strategy and arms control.

Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). It is associated with the Union through its membership in the European Economic Area (EEA), signed in 1992 and established in 1994. Norway was a founding member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in 1960, which was originally set up as an alternative to the European Economic Community (EEC), the main predecessor of the EU. Norway had considered joining both the EEC and the European Union, but opted to decline following referendums in 1972 and 1994. According to the European Social Survey conducted in 2018, 73.6% of Norwegians would vote 'No' in a referendum to join the European Union. Norway shares land borders with two EU member states, namely Finland and Sweden, and maritime borders with a third, Denmark. .. more

Political science 50%
Economics 14%

This is true for the transatlantic defense relationship. Without shared values, it is more difficult to see a US pledge to risk nuclear war for distant NATO allies as credible.
What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.

Surely better dumb villains than smart ones?
are you fucking serious

Rachel Reeves

Surprise!
Russian officials have called the revised 19-point plan a failure, Bloomberg reports.
What Trump has made me realise is how much the post-Cold War relationship hinged on shared values rather than shared interests. Trump is illustrating how, whether on Ukraine and Gaza, our interests diverge and, absent those values, there's not much holding us together.

Reposted by James Cameron

Russian officials have called the revised 19-point plan a failure, Bloomberg reports.

Is Driscoll working with Rubio, or around him? Hard to say.
News: US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi

US army secretary Dan Driscoll is in UAE for talks with Ukraine’s military intel chief Kyrylo Budanov and a Russian delegation as Washington pushes a peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war. @financialtimes.com

on.ft.com/43Og0fj
US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi
Army secretary Dan Driscoll meets delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in push for deal to end Kremlin’s invasion
on.ft.com

Guess who isn't there? Europe.
News: US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi

US army secretary Dan Driscoll is in UAE for talks with Ukraine’s military intel chief Kyrylo Budanov and a Russian delegation as Washington pushes a peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war. @financialtimes.com

on.ft.com/43Og0fj
US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi
Army secretary Dan Driscoll meets delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in push for deal to end Kremlin’s invasion
on.ft.com
News: US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi

US army secretary Dan Driscoll is in UAE for talks with Ukraine’s military intel chief Kyrylo Budanov and a Russian delegation as Washington pushes a peace deal to end the Kremlin’s war. @financialtimes.com

on.ft.com/43Og0fj
US holds secret Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi
Army secretary Dan Driscoll meets delegations from Kyiv and Moscow in push for deal to end Kremlin’s invasion
on.ft.com

"I don't know what I'm doing. As usual!!! GOD BLESS AMERICA!"
Trump on Ukraine:

Reposted by James Cameron

Trump on Ukraine:
This is the kind of thing you would do if you had no idea how to achieve economic growth. It's a stunningly stupid move but only one of many that the government has been making over the last 10 months or so. All those years in opposition and they have no idea what to do while in office. Shameful
i: Reeves to unveil £600m raid on foreign student
university fees #TomorrowsPapersToday

I fear that a lot of elements on European defense (including the nuclear component) will be viewed as politically impossible until the moment they become absolutely necessary, by which point it will be too late.
Europe has a foreign policy problem. It does need to engage in these talks and doing so as 7 or 8 leaders just doesn't work. It makes it easy to work around Europe. So the EU should pick a special envoy - perhaps the fmr Finnish president Niinisto or a Draghi type to engage on behalf of Europe.
No formal "counter-proposal" from Europeans in Geneva - whose leaders instead agreed to try to dilute or amend US-Russian draft to keep Trump onside - but a list of demands on UA territory, size of army & EU control over frozen assets & sanctions
w @christopherjm.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/9e11...
US, Ukrainian and European officials convene for peace talks
Meeting in Geneva follows rearguard diplomatic move to reshape US plan
www.ft.com

Reposted by James Cameron

No formal "counter-proposal" from Europeans in Geneva - whose leaders instead agreed to try to dilute or amend US-Russian draft to keep Trump onside - but a list of demands on UA territory, size of army & EU control over frozen assets & sanctions
w @christopherjm.ft.com
www.ft.com/content/9e11...
US, Ukrainian and European officials convene for peace talks
Meeting in Geneva follows rearguard diplomatic move to reshape US plan
www.ft.com

Any government with an ounce of shame would be completely humiliated by that second sentence. An utter shambles.
The Polish prime minister reacts
The Polish prime minister reacts

I think Witkoff is focused on getting a deal at any price (for Ukraine). But the State Dept and NSC still exist. Rubio was probably blindsided by the proposal and has enough self-respect remaining to work out something less one-sided. How much weight he carries inside the admin is hard to judge.

Was thinking the same thing. Probably not.

Every time the Trump admin does this, US credibility crumbles a little more in the eyes of its European allies.

If the latter were not so heavily invested in the United States, US credibility would have evaporated by now.
Russia-Ukraine war: US insists it authored peace plan
Russia-Ukraine war: US insists it authored peace plan
It comes after a group of senators said they were told by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the draft did not reflect Washington's position.
www.bbc.com

The US either wants to force this capitulation on Ukraine, or is deliberately setting the deal up for failure, giving it the excuse to walk away. Even if it backtracks, Putin will be emboldened.

In any event, European security is on the line and only Europe can take responsibility for its future.

For bigger profits, at least for Trump and his cabal.
It's even worse. The US is making a profit on the war right now, and apparently they are willing to give up that in order to force through this Munich thing.
It's even worse. The US is making a profit on the war right now, and apparently they are willing to give up that in order to force through this Munich thing.

At least Munich had a strategic rationale based on Anglo-French weakness and need for time to rearm in the face of immediate escalation to a Europe-wide war.

The US can easily support Ukraine and is arguably an effective cost-imposition strategy vs Russia, even in nakedly instrumental terms.

Reposted by Martin Tomko

I'm not a big fan of the Munich analogy, but this is real Munich stuff -- probably worse.

www.ft.com/content/f411...

This is key. Europe's courting of Trump has bought only short-term benefits at the cost of any belief that EUR will stand up for Ukraine's and its own interests when the chips are down. Now here we are.
you seriously when you need them to. The White House official who remarked "we don't care what the Europeans think" reflects the Washington mood. Europe will get in line when we tell them to. So will the EU unfreeze frozen Russian assets to go to US firms? Get rid of sanctions, etc? 5/

Reposted by James Cameron

you seriously when you need them to. The White House official who remarked "we don't care what the Europeans think" reflects the Washington mood. Europe will get in line when we tell them to. So will the EU unfreeze frozen Russian assets to go to US firms? Get rid of sanctions, etc? 5/
The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?
The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated
We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.
open.substack.com