Jane Green

@profjanegreen.bsky.social

9.1K followers 520 following 650 posts

Nuffield College, Oxford
Co-Director, British Election Study
Director, Nuffield Politics Research Centre
President, British Polling Council
Voting, surveys, explanation, singing …

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Jane Green FAcSS is a British political scientist and academic. She is Professor of Political Science and British Politics at the University of Oxford and a professorial fellow of Nuffield College. She is a specialist in public opinion and electoral behaviour, and has co-directed the British Election Study. She is the president of the British Polling Council. .. more

Political science 77%

Economics 5%

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1d

Unless all the Reform-leaning voters of the constituency are online or GB News fans (which they surely won't be), I think his credentials are alienating.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1d

Smaller swing than we’d otherwise expect

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1d

Not because Matt is saying stuff about Mary Beard but because he feels he has to say stuff about Mary Beard. I.e. dealing with what he’s best known for.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1d

Again, I think Reform could very likely under-perform in this by-election.

Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 1d

Interesting that the book writing politics professor has pivoted to Anti-Nerd while running for Reform. Absolutely no reason for drive by on MARY GODDAMN BEARD unless you want to oppose thought and nuance. She's been on Top Gear! #teammary

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1d

Again, I think Reform could very likely under-perform in this by-election.

Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 1d

marybeard @wmarybeard.bsky.social · 1d

You dont win 'em all! Reform's Matt Goodwin in Sunday Times: 'Most .. people criticising me are nerds.The last thing I want is to be at some dinner party table with Nick Robinson & Mary Beard. I'd rather shoot myself in the head'. Hang on, I'm not THAT bad!Nerds sometimes have a (thoughtful!) point.

Reposted by Joanna Bryson, Lisa W. Fazio, Jonathan A. Eisen , and 40 more Joanna Bryson, Lisa W. Fazio, Jonathan A. Eisen, Brendan Nyhan, Virginia Braun, Jesse H. Kroll, Scott L. Greer, Robert W. Wallace, Mark D. White, Rosemary A. Joyce, Elizabeth Stokoe, Alexander Wuttke, Lesley A. Hall, Rebecca Sear, Nichola Raihani, Jane Green, Smith, Flávio Azevedo, Michael W. Kraus, Mike Rowe, Emily Grubert, Aaron Sojourner, Lyndsey Stonebridge, Christine Kooi, Julia M. Wright, Brian Keegan, Timothy Burke, Jason Lyall, Aurélien Mondon, Ann Bartow, Catherine J. Frieman, Federica Genovese, Richard M. Carpiano, Hisham Zerriffi, Aleksandra Urman, Nicole Guenther Discenza, Manisha Sinha, James A. Benn, Mary McAuliffe, Nathan P. Kalmoe, Dan Immergluck, Tyson Wepprich, Anne Hilborn

Dr. Katja Thieme (she/they) @katjathieme.bsky.social · 1d

Academics vying for a spot in Epstein‘s world. There are so many. I feel the need to make a thread, so I don’t keep confusing them. 1/

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 6d

Is this true?! If so, purely on politics, surely Reform would know that such a candidate may backfire for this type of race. Unless Matt has some local, deeply committed credentials I admit I am unaware of?

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 6d

If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you.

So, vaugely academic Labour blueskiers (and, hell, non-academic ones) fancy a trip to Gorton to Stop Goodwin?

David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 6d

Are you an academic already alarmed and upset by the prospect of Matt Goodwin MP?

Just think! If Reform wins the next general election, they'll probably make him higher education minister.

Reposted by Jane Green

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 6d

If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you.

So, vaugely academic Labour blueskiers (and, hell, non-academic ones) fancy a trip to Gorton to Stop Goodwin?

David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 6d

Are you an academic already alarmed and upset by the prospect of Matt Goodwin MP?

Just think! If Reform wins the next general election, they'll probably make him higher education minister.

Max Berger @maxberger.bsky.social · 6d

The people of Minnesota have executed one of the most impressive civil resistance campaigns I can remember:

- Organized a city wide general strike
- Maintained nonviolent discipline amidst violence
- Mobilized 10,000s in subzero temps to protest and watch ICE
- Flipped public opinion against ICE

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 9d

I hope people remember these protests, and all the food parcels and practical support being provided through churches, when otherwise pointing to white evangelical Republicanism in (understandable) consternation for its support of Trump.

Emily Farris @emayfarris.bsky.social · 9d

I’m not much for religion but if I were, if a line of clergy flew in to freezing weather to line up and oppose me while singing songs of faith, I might be thinking “are we the baddies?”

Jack Jenkins @jackjenkins.me · 9d

Singing

Reposted by Jane Green, Carolyn Whitzman, Daxton R. Stewart

Emily Farris @emayfarris.bsky.social · 9d

I’m not much for religion but if I were, if a line of clergy flew in to freezing weather to line up and oppose me while singing songs of faith, I might be thinking “are we the baddies?”

Jack Jenkins @jackjenkins.me · 9d

Singing

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 11d

I don't think a new/increased one, unless it were to become politicised. Perhaps a bit more hesitation to jump among Conservatives.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 11d

I’ll be looking for UK Trump approval pre-post January but I have seen the impact of the last week be so anxiety-inducing and so horrifying for so many ‘normal’ (non-political) people I know, who never comment on politics, plus admiration for Carney, it shouldn’t be underestimated politically.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 14d

Sickening beyond belief.

Paul Brand @paulbrand.bsky.social · 14d

Russia says President Putin has been invited to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza.

Astonishing to invite one of history’s most egregious warmongers on to a peace board. The international rules are already in the bin.

Reposted by Steve Peers, Jane Green, Federica Genovese

Paul Brand @paulbrand.bsky.social · 14d

Reposted by Will Jennings

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 14d

What we know is that we’re entering a period of intense geopolitical turmoil. Shocks that will also reshape domestic politics. Different issues may matter to voters, different qualities, and different political responses. Which all means 2026 is very risky to place bets now (for defectors).

Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14d

It’s by no means impossible that Reform could fall back somewhat in the polls and be overtaken by the Conservatives - at which point it will be fascinating/priceless to watch the response of all the defectors.

Reposted by Ben H. Ansell, Jane Green

Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14d

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 17d

It would be on a renewable basis. I think they want to provide continuity to the team (a good thing).

Reposted by Tim Bale, Jane Green, Tom van der Meer

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 19d

Gratifying to see that some Labour MPs are now engaging with the bloc politics argument that @profjanegreen.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk @robfordmancs.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social and I have all been making.

labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...

'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList

Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.

labourlist.org

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 20d

we don't understand the propensity for parties to reach non-voters at the moment, or how people now consider the trade-offs of voting for nationally viable parties but don't know if they're viable locally, and ..... (I should go for some wine)

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 20d

I feel we have bigger fish to fry. Such as, imo, one of the most important things right now isn't measured well (whether people think parties have a clear purpose/what parties stand for, and what is that), and there's too much in polls in the 'don't knows', and we may be underestimating Reform, and

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 20d

There's a debate about PTVs and like-dislikes and whether they're functionally equivalent. But yes, someone who thinks they're not could indeed combine them! We had this in mind when we did a split-half solution in the BES (tried to find a win-win).

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 20d

Ours is just a propensity to vote score, where some people say 'not over my dead body' (though still sometimes do) as 0, and then everyone else is distributed somewhere on the scale. Maybe next time you can tell us what you'd do!

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 20d

I apologise for the PTSD ;-)

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21d

Ha! Not sure how to respond to this one. You can smooth things and lose info, or make them 'obnoxious', I guess!

Reposted by Tim Bale

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21d

We think (in work w/@martamiori.bsky.social) viability is the name of the game! How voters make sense of which party in their bloc can defeat a party in the other.

The big question: how voters make sense of this in our electoral system, whether there is a return to the major parties because of it.

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 21d

And surely helps Reform demonstrate 'viability', which as Jane sets out in this great piece is so important to them now:

Reposted by Jane Green

Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 21d

And surely helps Reform demonstrate 'viability', which as Jane sets out in this great piece is so important to them now:

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21d

This week, yes!

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21d

Have we seen a loss of votes to further right? (A very difficult thing to measure …)

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 21d

Except this realism is anything but boring for Reform! You have to hand it to them...(but I understand why some people just can't bring themselves to do that, but priors are priors)

Reposted by Jane Green

Patrick Maguire @patrickmaguire.bsky.social · 21d

99 per cent of analysis I’m reading about Zahawi is way too involved. To the extent people pay attention to this at all, it will be to note that Reform are doing well and hear someone else say Farage will/can be PM. Also: are Reform the same old Tories or something new and scary?

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