Jane Green | Lightnews

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3h

More that this tends to reflect the demographics of a constituency which change quite slowly! Just a guide!

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3h

I'd say the best guide to how a constituency election may unfold is its voting history. The problem is that our party system could well be going through a transformation, meaning that these changes will affect how past voting histories now play out on likelihoods.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10h

Absolutely! But many people are motivated to stop a different outcome, especially in a highly polarised context. But definitely -

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10h

How can people figure it out?

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10h

I think you’re right in lots of places! LD areas, small number of Greens, Con strongholds, Lab strong-strongholds. But things are much messier elsewhere now.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12h

Agree with this!!

Thomas Prosser @prossertj.bsky.social · 12h

Yes and, in a GE, local contests will be receive much less press coverage than recent by-elections in Gorton and Denton or Caerphilly. I'm really not sure that tactical voting is going to be as sophisticated/prevalent as some claim!

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 13h

Looking at the Gorton and Denton contest is like a foretaste of a GE where voters are given multiple messages, ‘only X party can win here’ based on - often - relatively poor data and bewildering changes in the national picture 🤯. I’m concerned about how we could provide decent information.

Thomas Prosser @prossertj.bsky.social · 12h

Yes and, in a GE, local contests will be receive much less press coverage than recent by-elections in Gorton and Denton or Caerphilly. I'm really not sure that tactical voting is going to be as sophisticated/prevalent as some claim!

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 13h

Looking at the Gorton and Denton contest is like a foretaste of a GE where voters are given multiple messages, ‘only X party can win here’ based on - often - relatively poor data and bewildering changes in the national picture 🤯. I’m concerned about how we could provide decent information.

Ralph Scott @ralphscott.bsky.social · 12h

It's going to be a mess! Given the degree of fragmentation (and difficulty finding representative samples of some subpopulations in places like G&D) I imagine/hope many more seats will be too close to call in future MRPs?

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 13h

Looking at the Gorton and Denton contest is like a foretaste of a GE where voters are given multiple messages, ‘only X party can win here’ based on - often - relatively poor data and bewildering changes in the national picture 🤯. I’m concerned about how we could provide decent information.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 1d

Many congratulations!!

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 2d

Unless all the Reform-leaning voters of the constituency are online or GB News fans (which they surely won't be), I think his credentials are alienating.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 2d

Smaller swing than we’d otherwise expect

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 2d

Not because Matt is saying stuff about Mary Beard but because he feels he has to say stuff about Mary Beard. I.e. dealing with what he’s best known for.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 2d

Again, I think Reform could very likely under-perform in this by-election.

Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 2d

Interesting that the book writing politics professor has pivoted to Anti-Nerd while running for Reform. Absolutely no reason for drive by on MARY GODDAMN BEARD unless you want to oppose thought and nuance. She's been on Top Gear! #teammary

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 2d

Again, I think Reform could very likely under-perform in this by-election.

Janine Gibson @janinegibson.ft.com · 2d

Interesting that the book writing politics professor has pivoted to Anti-Nerd while running for Reform. Absolutely no reason for drive by on MARY GODDAMN BEARD unless you want to oppose thought and nuance. She's been on Top Gear! #teammary

marybeard @wmarybeard.bsky.social · 2d

You dont win 'em all! Reform's Matt Goodwin in Sunday Times: 'Most .. people criticising me are nerds.The last thing I want is to be at some dinner party table with Nick Robinson & Mary Beard. I'd rather shoot myself in the head'. Hang on, I'm not THAT bad!Nerds sometimes have a (thoughtful!) point.

Dr. Katja Thieme (she/they) @katjathieme.bsky.social · 3d

Academics vying for a spot in Epstein‘s world. There are so many. I feel the need to make a thread, so I don’t keep confusing them. 1/

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

Is this true?! If so, purely on politics, surely Reform would know that such a candidate may backfire for this type of race. Unless Matt has some local, deeply committed credentials I admit I am unaware of?

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 7d

If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you.

So, vaugely academic Labour blueskiers (and, hell, non-academic ones) fancy a trip to Gorton to Stop Goodwin?

David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 7d

Are you an academic already alarmed and upset by the prospect of Matt Goodwin MP?

Just think! If Reform wins the next general election, they'll probably make him higher education minister.

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 7d

If you gaze long into an abyss, the abyss also gazes into you.

So, vaugely academic Labour blueskiers (and, hell, non-academic ones) fancy a trip to Gorton to Stop Goodwin?

David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 7d

Are you an academic already alarmed and upset by the prospect of Matt Goodwin MP?

Just think! If Reform wins the next general election, they'll probably make him higher education minister.

Max Berger @maxberger.bsky.social · 8d

The people of Minnesota have executed one of the most impressive civil resistance campaigns I can remember:

- Organized a city wide general strike
- Maintained nonviolent discipline amidst violence
- Mobilized 10,000s in subzero temps to protest and watch ICE
- Flipped public opinion against ICE

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 11d

I hope people remember these protests, and all the food parcels and practical support being provided through churches, when otherwise pointing to white evangelical Republicanism in (understandable) consternation for its support of Trump.

Emily Farris @emayfarris.bsky.social · 11d

I’m not much for religion but if I were, if a line of clergy flew in to freezing weather to line up and oppose me while singing songs of faith, I might be thinking “are we the baddies?”

Jack Jenkins @jackjenkins.me · 11d

Singing

Emily Farris @emayfarris.bsky.social · 11d

I’m not much for religion but if I were, if a line of clergy flew in to freezing weather to line up and oppose me while singing songs of faith, I might be thinking “are we the baddies?”

Jack Jenkins @jackjenkins.me · 11d

Singing

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12d

I don't think a new/increased one, unless it were to become politicised. Perhaps a bit more hesitation to jump among Conservatives.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12d

I’ll be looking for UK Trump approval pre-post January but I have seen the impact of the last week be so anxiety-inducing and so horrifying for so many ‘normal’ (non-political) people I know, who never comment on politics, plus admiration for Carney, it shouldn’t be underestimated politically.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 15d

Sickening beyond belief.

Paul Brand @paulbrand.bsky.social · 15d

Russia says President Putin has been invited to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza.

Astonishing to invite one of history’s most egregious warmongers on to a peace board. The international rules are already in the bin.

Paul Brand @paulbrand.bsky.social · 15d

Russia says President Putin has been invited to join Trump’s Board of Peace for Gaza.

Astonishing to invite one of history’s most egregious warmongers on to a peace board. The international rules are already in the bin.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 16d

What we know is that we’re entering a period of intense geopolitical turmoil. Shocks that will also reshape domestic politics. Different issues may matter to voters, different qualities, and different political responses. Which all means 2026 is very risky to place bets now (for defectors).

Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 16d

It’s by no means impossible that Reform could fall back somewhat in the polls and be overtaken by the Conservatives - at which point it will be fascinating/priceless to watch the response of all the defectors.

Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 16d

It’s by no means impossible that Reform could fall back somewhat in the polls and be overtaken by the Conservatives - at which point it will be fascinating/priceless to watch the response of all the defectors.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 19d

It would be on a renewable basis. I think they want to provide continuity to the team (a good thing).

Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 20d

Gratifying to see that some Labour MPs are now engaging with the bloc politics argument that @profjanegreen.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @joxley.jmoxley.co.uk @robfordmancs.bsky.social @timbale.bsky.social and I have all been making.

labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...

'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList

Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.

labourlist.org

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 22d

we don't understand the propensity for parties to reach non-voters at the moment, or how people now consider the trade-offs of voting for nationally viable parties but don't know if they're viable locally, and ..... (I should go for some wine)

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 22d

I feel we have bigger fish to fry. Such as, imo, one of the most important things right now isn't measured well (whether people think parties have a clear purpose/what parties stand for, and what is that), and there's too much in polls in the 'don't knows', and we may be underestimating Reform, and

Add to Home Screen

Light up
your news

Add to Home Screen

Light upyour news

Sign in to Lightnews

Sign up to start reading

Connect Bluesky

Connect with Bluesky

Light up
your news