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James Austin

@jamesdaustin.bsky.social

8.1K followers 1.8K following 1.7K posts

This again. Outdoors. Politics. Sport. Not always in that order. Labour. Trade Unionist. Trying to do community things. Views entirely my own

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 57m

I think I saw some stills for him playing for the Parlimentary union side the other day and... i csn think of little more terrifying

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 1h

(Plus some sample/method concerns)

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 1h

Worth noting these are just for panels: they then select responsds and weigh etc. To make them representative. There is a huge diversity of method to do this (one of the reasons to trust the average: theyre coming oht in similar places)

FON is a major outlier atm which is why people are suspicious

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 1h

Election maps UK are just a aggregate account - they dont do the polling.

I have some concerns about method with FON but mosr polling is decent

Reposted by James Austin

Lewis Goodall @lewisgoodall.com · 9h

I do wonder if Labour might look at the sorts of people dominating the discourse and dominating the content wars and maybe, just maybe, rethink the sorts of grey figures they routinely put up for interviews, instructed at that to be as cautious as possible. Things have changed. Their comms hasn’t.

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Reposted by James Austin

Cao Cao Power Hour Enthusiast @statsboyandi.bsky.social · 8h

This is kind of, uh, pretending that Bibi was willing to do anything for Biden and requires you to materially ignore how much more terrible shit Trump has allowed Bibi to do. Like measurably worse!

Andrew Exum @exum.bsky.social · 9h

This week has confirmed my suspicion that Biden’s Middle East policies will look worse, and will be even more embarrassing for Democrats, with the passage of time.

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 2h

My point

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 9h

Certainly free and fair elections look... challenging

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 9h

Genuinely not sure it can sustain till next November. Its getting very nasty, very quick

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 9h

(Realise were on Sams thread - the other side)

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 9h

Yeah, exactly this. Time smooths a lot of wrinkles

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 9h

Agree entirely on that - and I dont think theyre bad faith as a pollster. Hust think there are issues- on Sams thread there is some good discussion of these

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 10h

Recovery and a cutting down of contact hours are the big recent changes - plus properly getting nutrition. The inital instinct post professionalism - which you can see from the film - was just to load more: youre full time now! You so can treat it like a job.

Now there is far greater awareness

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

I dont think theyre dodgy in the way people polling were: I just dont trust their numbers (their method is perfectly transparent)

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

You should be moving around within the MoE (tho things like Yougovs method mitigate against this, as shouldn't weighing eyc) - not having large drops/rises continually which are outside it.

Issue is how many DKs theyre picking up - way above other pollsters

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

Its the range of different things swinging - and how their previous polling has been bouncing around as well.

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

He seems to, like the govt, understand how to play Trump's white house quite well

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

Yep - but it probably took another 10 years for the culture to properly change. And we had n idea how to manage people (not sure league really did at that point?) We just flogged them

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

Yes, massively. Icons and you had no idea the cost. I guess the defense is that no one did

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

Seeing Steve Thompson then... as such a vital figure.

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 11h

Massively - but its also about what they did to get there before that and the wider mental health impact.

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 12h

Its the way they were just flogged and then the response is, of course, to destroy themselves in a different way. As you say, very revealing and tough.

Very familiar.

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 12h

Ill take a look - as a slight tangent Batting through the Dark remains the finest sports book Ive read.

The things we do to ourselves for silly games

James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 12h

The pride they have as well despite it all...

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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 12h

I can remember when Wharfedale drew Newcastle in the cup in... 2004ish? Id have been 14. Huge crowd. They played Wilkinson and the other stars. Midweek match under lights. Cant let the kids down.

I assume they all played another game at the weekend.

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