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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 5h

Preach

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 8h

Conservatives, @andrewrawnsley.bsky.social is on the money here.

There is only one way back, and that is to reclaim competence.

Andrew Rawnsley @andrewrawnsley.bsky.social · 13h

There's a potential path back for the Tories, but not by being a Reform tribute act
observer.co.uk/news/columni...

The Conservatives must reclaim competence – and stop imit...

Years of blunders have wrecked the Tory brand. Mimicking Nigel Farage won’t rebuild it – owning their failures might

observer.co.uk

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 8h

certainly a big deal that Labour is finally going on the attack

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 8h

Interesting. Comparison of Con>dk and Lab>dk 'duty to vote' could be telling. Conservatives going back certainly visible in July 2024 at the last minute, and I suspect higher duty of voting.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 9h

I don’t think the Lab and Con don’t knows will really be squeezed until a GE

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10h

The assumption is that Reform have their - what might have been - ‘don’t knows’ as decideds, which suggests they’re kind of at their ceiling.

I think we’ll find out if that’s true pre-post May 2026.

Will successes move even more Tories (and non-voters) to think they’re THE party of the right?

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12h

What if we assume that the Con>dk and Lab>dk are really Con and Lab voters, respectively?

Reform are then slightly over-performing in polls.

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 13h

Which party underperformed the most in the 2025 local elections?

Arguably Reform UK. A 🧵 on what the locals tell us about a key and neglected dimension in analysis of the current political situation.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 12h

What if we assume that the Con>dk and Lab>dk are really Con and Lab voters, respectively?

Reform are then slightly over-performing in polls.

Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · 13h

Which party underperformed the most in the 2025 local elections?

Arguably Reform UK. A 🧵 on what the locals tell us about a key and neglected dimension in analysis of the current political situation.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 3d

I was referring to how they’re trying to frame the choice…we saw this in the Starmer speech. It’s all relative…

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 4d

So it makes sense that Conservatives should try and reclaim the 'fiscal responsibility' label; incredibly easy in opposition to attack Labour and Reform. And resonates with what many will think a Conservative party would be doing.

Doesn't mean its a winning strategy, but its somewhere to start.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 4d

Dividing lines in British political competition becoming clearer in how they're trying to counter Reform.

For Labour, tolerance, delivery. For Conservatives, hard-right on 'culture' and fiscal prudence on econ. Latter probably the one thing Conservatives still thought to represent, in party image.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 5d

Working on something with a typo. The Untied States. Quite.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 6d

Perhaps more targeting the mid-life economically stretched group we identified here: www.jrf.org.uk/public-attit....

I'd imagine that lump sum would mostly go to children, or a mortgage, which would be no bad thing!

I don't know how people would feel about retiring a year later as the trade-off.

Addressing key voters' economic insecurity is vital for all parties

People aged 35–59 are a pivotal swing voter group that all political parties need to appeal to. They're also the most economically insecure in Britain. What policies will throw them a lifeline?

www.jrf.org.uk

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 6d

We find that parents/grandparents with financially struggling younger family members are both numerous and more likely to support policies and parties that help younger generations, with things like home buying:

www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Family matters • Resolution Foundation

Report by Zack Grant, Jane Green & Geoffrey Evans of Nuffield Politics Research Centre, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, in collaboration with Molly Broome, Sophie Hale & Lord David Willetts of...

www.resolutionfoundation.org

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 6d

The policies at CPC aimed at young people's savings are very interesting. They signal a) Conservatives have something to say to younger people (!), but also b) they have something to say to parents and grandparents deeply worried about younger generations. That's smart...

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

Loved your TED talk

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

A gem from today:

When I say ‘the proof is in the pudding’ it reflects very badly on me and very badly on my institution, because I haven’t said the whole precise phrase.

A thousand apologies, University of Oxford.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

When I go on ITV, I get back on a train. That’s that. Happy days.

When I go on BBC, I receive emails correcting which expressions I use, how I haven’t been strident enough about someone’s political grievance. Used to get a lot worse.

Anyone else removed their email address from their webpage?

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

I don’t think so. Labour’s doing a broad (certainly confusing and sometimes suboptimal) appeal, but the Conservatives are the ones literally trying to go for Reform voters only.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

That’s horrific!

(We have an internal address book. The issue would be wider academic networks)

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

Exactly. I guess they’ll just have to to decide to vote tactically, for their lesser of evils…and the Conservatives will get smaller and smaller.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

It’s not that it affects what I’d say or how I’d express a thing, or would change anything I’d do. Just don’t want those people crossing a boundary into my inbox.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

When I go on ITV, I get back on a train. That’s that. Happy days.

When I go on BBC, I receive emails correcting which expressions I use, how I haven’t been strident enough about someone’s political grievance. Used to get a lot worse.

Anyone else removed their email address from their webpage?

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 7d

If the Conservative Party shifts hard-right, as signals around CPC suggest they are, the voters they are targeting might as well vote Reform.

Why vote Conservative?!

They’re going for a tiny fringe. While the Conservatives could have been the opposition to Labour.

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 9d

One thing I said is that Badenoch's approach of leaving time to reflect just isn't one Conservatives can afford with half of lost Conservative 2024 votes in this first year going to Reform.

It is not a normal period of being kicked out of office and benefiting eventually when the gov fails.

Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 9d

BBC Newscast, with me on Labour’s new strategy, Conservatives needing one, whether ‘economic growth’ should be Labour’s defining mission.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...

Newscast - Series 6: 11. Was Labour’s Conference a Success for Starmer?

Adam, Chris, Faisal and Professor Jane Green discuss Keir Starmer’s performance at the Labour conference and the government’s economic plans, before looking ahead to the Conservative conference.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 9d

BBC Newscast, with me on Labour’s new strategy, Conservatives needing one, whether ‘economic growth’ should be Labour’s defining mission.

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...

Newscast - Series 6: 11. Was Labour’s Conference a Success for Starmer?

Adam, Chris, Faisal and Professor Jane Green discuss Keir Starmer’s performance at the Labour conference and the government’s economic plans, before looking ahead to the Conservative conference.

www.bbc.co.uk

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 10d

Had the pleasure tonight of chatting with the three brilliant BBC amigos, @adamfleming.bsky.social Chris Mason and Faisal Islam for BBC Newscast. On BBC 1 TV tonight, and podcast tomorrow….

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